I don’t get it; you want to bet on whether or not the economy will improve or get worse, but as a condition you’re removing one of the key possibilities that would cause you to lose the bet?
I’ll take that bet as long as you bet me even money on the Ottawa Senators winning the Stanley Cup. One condition; the Senators can’t lose any playoff series.
Not at all. As I understand it, the people who think the troops should be withdrawn now believe that the war is lost. It’s a fiasco, and now they are just doing more harm than good and the country is falling apart. I’m saying that I’m optimistic that that won’t happen, so long as the U.S. stays to prevent it from happening. Thus the bet.
Thank you, Scylla.
And as far as Sam’s bet goes, here’s what the OP stated was the basis of his proposed bet: “Since you believe we should stay the course until victory is achieved, and Bush plans to carry out that policy, this should be a gold-plated opportunity for good capitalists to cash in on the March of Freedom.”
It seems to me that Sam’s terms are therefore a more accurate representation of whether “staying the course” is good for Iraq’s economy. That doesn’t mean that “staying the course” is good for the United States or for the effort to eliminate the insurgency.
Scylla, I’m just curious, in a GQ sort of way – do currencies ever appreciate in the way posited in the OP? I mean, go up tenfold, or a hundredfold? Hell, do they ever even double in value? It seems like it’s outside the nature of currency for that to happen.
It’s a tough question. Generally, when we talk about appreciation we’re talking about it in terms of a currency. With a currency we’d be talking about appreciation in terms of itself unless we paired it with something else.
So, let’s look at a couple of examples:
A new Toyota costs $20,000 in American dollars. Later the Yen falls versus the dollar and you can buy that same car for $15,000. All other things being equal, the dollar has appreciated dramatically versus the yen, or the yen has fallen versus the dollar.
Venezuela suffers hyperinflation while the dollar remains stable in terms of buying power. If Venezuelan dollars were worth 1 American dollar and now it takes 1,ooo Venezuelan dollars to equal 1 American dollar than the American dollar has appreciated a thousandfold!
Of course, in Venezuela an apple will still cost what it did (in dollar terms) before the hyperinflation. There’s a caveat to this: The American dollar will see real appreciation in terms of buying power (it’ll by more) because it will have a value in and of itself as a relatively stable currency.
So, to answer your question, you rarely if ever are going to see a currency appreciate astronomically in terms of buying power as long as it’s fiat money (unbacked.)