Iraq - The Grand Plan?

Great Debates
21

…democratize the Middle East?

Why?

Our government has never been all that wild about democracy. At least, not in foreign countries. True, we make a lot of NOISE about it, but the best buddy we ever had over there (with the possible exception of Israel) was the Shah of Iran, a hardnosed monarchist who liked Western ways and methodology, and was an iron-balled dictator who routinely pissed in his people’s faces and ran roughshod over their religious and social sensibilities.

An Arab dictator can do one of the other of those things. Not both. The Shah, I think, proved that pretty well. The eternal lesson: Don’t Screw The People Too Hard Or Too Long.

We liked Saddam Hussein just fine when he was a cheerful, tractable military dictator who was happy to get Iraqis killed, as long as they were doing so while kicking Iran’s ass. It was when he decided he didn’t wanna play ball with us that he made the U.S. Government’s shit list… that, and his idea that he could make himself and Iraq a center of Arabic unity, at the expense of Saudi Arabia (and, of course, Israel, the usual common enemy of the Arabs).

Well, that won’t work. We sure as hell don’t want Arab unity. And we certainly aren’t much concerned with Middle Eastern democracy. You’ll notice how chummy we are with Saudi Arabia, an iron-balled monarchy with a society steeped in fundamentalist Islamic tradition and no particular interest in human rights, much less voting for anything or anyone.

It is true that Bush said he wanted to give the Iraqis the gift of freedom. It is true that Bush said lots of things, both before and after his election. Half of what he said was crap, and I’d be terrified if the other half came true.

It’s politics and economics. At least, I think so. I’d certainly be surprised to think that we were gonna hang around long enough to install any kind of democratic TRADITION over there…

22

I’m a little bit baffled as to why anyone would think that Iraq will somehow magically become democratic after Saddam is gone. I think civil war or worse is far more likely.

23

Jojo, that’s quite a scenario you have for the thought processes of the guy who said “This foreign policy stuff is a little frustrating”. If he really had a vision of that magnitude, don’t you think he’d share it with us instead of saying and doing so many things to contradict it?

Points for imagination, though.

24

** Jojo **
Intriguing.

ElvisL1ves
This might very well be the the brainchild of Condi Rice supported enthusiastically by Rumsfeld and reluctantly by an optimistic Colin Powell. Bush only needs to be given the broad idea. He might be asked to just focus on being a “war” president, earning the faith of the American people, get re-elected, that sort of thing. Practicalities.

25

Jojo
It’s not so much that the neo-cons advising Bush want to “democratize” the middle east, it’s that they think they see a way to actually “cure” terrorism rather than simply treat it. Let me explain.

The Bush administration wants to apply the experiences in Bosnia and Kosovo to Iraq. The betting is that Iraqis are just worn out and will jump at the chance to build their lives again, especially when helped along by a big infusion of direct aid and new infrastructure. Just as in the Balkans, ethnic strife will take a back seat to development on the theory that no one will fight over crumbs if you offer them a big enough pie. In fact, the Americans are already trying to organize a Kosovo-style international adminstration for Iraq for after the war.

Now, look at a map. Once Americans are in Iraq, Iran is in a vice. Iran, ironically enough, has an electorate that shares many of the values the U.S. espouses. It has actually contested elections, a vigorous oposition party, etc. If you could curb the theocracy bit, Iran would be something of a political model in the mid-east, and probably on quite good terms with the U.S. Flip Iraq to the U.S. side, and the Americans will be able to exert a great deal of influence, both overt and covert, on Iran. This strategy is already a partial success. The religous conservative in Iran are already making the most serious overtures ever to find a modus vivendi with Washington.

So let’s assume, for the moment, that this all worked. Iraq has become stable, prosperous and relatively democratic and the Iraqis are generally quite pleased with the change. The Iranian reformists have overcome the conservatives. As a result, Iran is opening up to the world again, has friendly ties with the U.S. and a much improved economy. Afghanistan is . . . well, Afghanistan is at least better off than it was.

All this would be politically devastating for Islamic terrorists. It’s a bit hard to work up resentment against the great satan when his supposed victims are dancing in the streets and driving around in new cars. It would also be politically devastating for other harsh regimes. Apart from having Americans on their doorsteps, Iraq and Iran would become models of what other middle-eastern countries could be.

I’m not saying this grand strategy will work, but at least it’s nice to think there is a strategy. Anyway, I suspect that the Bush team feels that the downside is minimal. The best defense is, as they say, a good offense. After all, isn’t the idea of carrying around duct tape and plastic sheeting for the rest of your life too depressing for words?

26

litost, I certainly don’t doubt that Bush himself is not directing US foreign policy (or domestic either, but that’s another story). Just look at who gets whisked off to an “undisclosed secure location” whenever the heat is on, and who is left making speeches at elementary schools.

That said, what in the backgrounds, or public statements, or actions to date for that matter, suggest any such strategy to be in place?

27

** ElvisL1ves **
There was a recent speech by Bush mentioned by Jojo earlier in this thread where Bush spoke of democratizing Iraq. Also, today, Colin Powell on CNN specifically spoke of how on the removal of Saddam the tensions in the region will considerably reduce, and how US troops in Saudi Arabia can be pulled.

Of course, I don’t think Bush would ever come out and claim that WMDs or not, US is going to invade Iraq to democratise it and stabilize the region. Not possible in the current world climate!