# IRAQ: Time to Admit Mistake; Withdraw? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 5, 2004, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402 "2004-04-05T18:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/81 "2004-04-11T05:13:54Z")
First of all, can you please quote conventionally? We shouldn’t be editing your entire post every time we want to reply. > [@](#): > > The Iraqis, the governing council. A disagreement isn’t a call for war. Yea, but when the people “disagreeing” are the puppets that you installed - AKA, the people you trust most - AKA, the people you want running the country - then you have a rather serious problem on your hands. > [@](#): > > It’s only been a week. Whether or not it will be resolved - we still don’t know. Oh, it could easily be ressolved by killing everyone in the cities. Unfortunately, that opens up a “few” new problems. \*Second, even this June 30 is a long way off, at the current pace. January 31 is an eternity away. I don’t believe we’ll be in a position to guarantee elections anytime in 2005, even if we’re still there. \* > [@](#): > > This is all speculation. We don’t even know if we’ve won or lost. Why don’t we wait until we actually know. Because it is speculation does not mean it is false. The fact that we never had a good chance of establishing a stable democracy within a year, combined with the fact that even our puppets are opposing our actions, combined with the fact that entire new groups of Iraqis are rebelling each week… well, it doesn’t look good. You talk about this war like it is a bloody football game. That is disturbing. You are also looking at this from a very short-term point of view. “We can still win the battle.” You aren’t considering the international and long-term consequences and costs of winning that battle. It could end up being a Phyrric victory. > [@](#): > > If we leave, that’s surrender, which means we got our asses kicked. If we leave now or later, it’s the same damn thing - we lose. We haven’t even lost and we’re already thinking about surrender. :rolleyes: Ah, back to the black-and-white comic book world of the right. “We stabbed him, we might as well finish killing him. If we don’t, it looks like we’re inept.” BTW, does this mean that we surrendered in Afghanistan, or just called a time out? ---
**Author:** ![skarf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@skarf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skarf)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/82 "2004-04-11T05:40:18Z")
**Zagadka** > [@](#): > > First of all, can you please quote conventionally? We shouldn’t be editing your entire post every time we want to reply. Like this? > [@](#): > > Yea, but when the people “disagreeing” are the puppets that you installed - AKA, the people you trust most - AKA, the people you want running the country - then you have a rather serious problem on your hands. Wow, you’d have thought by now that they aren’t puppets! Still, a disagreement isn’t a call for war. > [@](#): > > Oh, it could easily be ressolved by killing everyone in the cities. > > Unfortunately, that opens up a “few” new problems. If we’re killing everyone in the cities, we would have nuked them. > [@](#): > > Because it is speculation does not mean it is false. I never said that. I said it doesn’t mean it’s true, so we should not take it as truth. > [@](#): > > The fact that we never had a good chance of establishing a stable democracy within a year, combined with the fact that even our puppets are opposing our actions, combined with the fact that entire new groups of Iraqis are rebelling each week… well, it doesn’t look good. That’s a stable democracy in two years and I would like a cite for “new groups”. > [@](#): > > You talk about this war like it is a bloody football game. That is disturbing. Hmph, never saw it that way. > [@](#): > > You are also looking at this from a very short-term point of view. “We can still win the battle.” You aren’t considering the international and long-term consequences and costs of winning that battle. It could end up being a Phyrric victory. No, I am not looking at it from a short-term perspective. I’m thinking we and the Iraqis have so much to gain from a developed Iraq years and years down the road. You, however, are looking at a week of violence and concluding that it means failure. In the long-term, I’m thinking that premature withdraw will cause what I listed above. > [@](#): > > Ah, back to the black-and-white comic book world of the right. > > “We stabbed him, we might as well finish killing him. If we don’t, it looks like we’re inept.” No, my feeling is that we did a little surgery to save him. If we don’t take care of him after, well, you know what follows. > [@](#): > > BTW, does this mean that we surrendered in Afghanistan, or just called a time out? I haven’t been keeping tabs on Afghanistan so I won’t comment on that. ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/83 "2004-04-11T05:51:15Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > Like this? Very nice, thank you. 🙂 > [@](#): > > Wow, you’d have thought by now that they aren’t puppets! Still, a disagreement isn’t a call for war. Granted. None of them have come out and supported the rebels, as such, though several have resigned, left the country, and denounced the American actions. These actions arne’t exactly what we want to be seeing. > [@](#): > > If we’re killing everyone in the cities, we would have nuked them. I don’t think so. It is much easier and less politically costly to carpetbomb a city out of existence than to use a nuke. Fact is, we’ve entered a seige around some of the cities and have been shooting people on sight and engaging in continued bombardment from plane and helicopter. > [@](#): > > I never said that. I said it doesn’t mean it’s true, so we should not take it as truth. Fair enough - though we are free to submit it as a likely possibility. > [@](#): > > That’s a stable democracy in two years and I would like a cite for “new groups”. One year, two years, still as likely. Sunni and Shia groups are joining the rebellion constantly, either joining Sadr or starting their own movements. What isn’t talked about much is the rebellion in northern Iraq that has been damaging the oil pipelines. > [@](#): > > No, I am not looking at it from a short-term perspective. I’m thinking we and the Iraqis have so much to gain from a developed Iraq years and years down the road. You, however, are looking at a week of violence and concluding that it means failure. In the long-term, I’m thinking that premature withdraw will cause what I listed above. I’m looking at a nation and region full of fanatics who resent our presence more every minute, and that has been growing a great deal since the Fallujah incidents started being broadcast. > [@](#): > > No, my feeling is that we did a little surgery to save him. If we don’t take care of him after, well, you know what follows. I’m more concerned that he will pull through crippled, and his friends will be stalking us. 😉 > [@](#): > > I haven’t been keeping tabs on Afghanistan so I won’t comment on that. I wrote a great deal on the current situation here : [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=249974](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=249974) Suffice to say, we’d better not pull the same manuever on Iraq that we did in Afghanistan. ---
**Author:** ![skarf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@skarf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skarf)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/84 "2004-04-11T06:27:06Z")
> [@Zagadka](#): > > Granted. None of them have come out and supported the rebels, as such, though several have resigned, left the country, and denounced the American actions. These actions arne’t exactly what we want to be seeing. I don’t think any of us want to be seeing anything we’re seeing now. We can either leave and let a civil war happen, or fight for a peaceful Iraq. Either way, there will be bloodshed. One option, the latter, has less. > [@](#): > > I don’t think so. It is much easier and less politically costly to carpetbomb a city out of existence than to use a nuke. > > Fact is, we’ve entered a seige around some of the cities and have been shooting people on sight and engaging in continued bombardment from plane and helicopter. Cite for all of that, and methodology. > [@](#): > > Fair enough - though we are free to submit it as a likely possibility. My speculations are as likely as yours then. That’s why I’m advocating wait-and-see. > [@](#): > > One year, two years, still as likely. Sunni and Shia groups are joining the rebellion constantly, either joining Sadr or starting their own movements. What isn’t talked about much is the rebellion in northern Iraq that has been damaging the oil pipelines. You haven’t provided a cite. > [@](#): > > I’m looking at a nation and region full of fanatics who resent our presence more every minute, and that has been growing a great deal since the Fallujah incidents started being broadcast. Maybe you’re right. I tend to overestimate people. > [@](#): > > I’m more concerned that he will pull through crippled, and his friends will be stalking us. 😉 Heheh. I guess this is where we disagree. I’m thinking, if we take care of him, he won’t pull through crippled, and we’ll get a big check and more customers. 🙂 If you want, we can leave it at that. ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/85 "2004-04-11T06:40:31Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > Cite for all of that, and methodology. First hand observation by [Iraqi citizens](http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/), [NGOs](http://www.occupationwatch.org/), and [US scholars](http://www.juancole.com/). > [@](#): > > My speculations are as likely as yours then. That’s why I’m advocating wait-and-see. I think that is a poor position to take when the seeing involves seeing how many people get killed. > [@](#): > > You haven’t provided a cite. I need a cite for al-Sadr and the others? Alrighty, I’ll dig for one. > [@](#): > > Heheh. I guess this is where we disagree. I’m thinking, if we take care of him, he won’t pull through crippled, and we’ll get a big check and more customers. 🙂 If you want, we can leave it at that. heh, though I think that the word getting out that our business in surgery starts by stabbing someone, that business may become a bit unwilling. OK, analogies are running wild. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/86 "2004-04-11T06:46:40Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > This has been proven to exacerbate the violence, actually. We were absent from Fallujah, and that’s what made it easy for Sadr to take the city. Sadr has nothing to do with Fallujah. The insurgency in Fallujah is Sunni-based. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/87 "2004-04-11T06:46:51Z")
[http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak08.html](http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak08.html) Novak comments on how relations between the Presidential administration and the generals are worse than they’ve been in a long while, and the military is quietly getting fed up with the arrogance and mismangement and outright contempt for their opinions they’ve had to deal with. ---
**Author:** ![skarf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@skarf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skarf)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/88 "2004-04-11T07:06:55Z")
> [@Zagadka](#): > > First hand observation by [Iraqi citizens](http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/), [NGOs](http://www.occupationwatch.org/), and [US scholars](http://www.juancole.com/). > [@](#): > > I think that is a poor position to take when the seeing involves seeing how many people get killed. People will die if we leave anyway. It’s better to keep deaths accountable. > [@](#): > > heh, though I think that the word getting out that our business in surgery starts by stabbing someone, that business may become a bit unwilling. > > OK, analogies are running wild. 😉 We didn’t stab him, he was a cancer patient that needed a tumor removed. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![skarf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@skarf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skarf)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/89 "2004-04-11T07:08:18Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Sadr has nothing to do with Fallujah. The insurgency in Fallujah is Sunni-based. Sorry. Let me rephrase what I said. This has been proven to exacerbate the violence, actually. We were absent from Fallujah, and that’s what made it easy for the Baathists to retake the city. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/90 "2004-04-11T07:18:32Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > People will die if we leave anyway. It’s better to keep deaths accountable. And just who is to be accountable? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/91 "2004-04-11T07:24:05Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > **Zagadka** Wow, you’d have thought by now that they aren’t puppets! Who “elected” them? > [@](#): > > **No, I am not looking at it from a short-term perspective. I’m thinking we and the Iraqis have so much to gain from a developed Iraq years and years down the road.** Why should _you_ have anything to “gain” from Iraq’s future? Who gains and who doesn’t, with regards to their _own_ assets is their decision to make. Nota bene: they never asked for you to invade them and any subsequent gratefulness they may have felt is understandably being buried along with their own copious dead. Besides, unless you have a justification for naked 21st colonialism I am not aware of, it’s rather frowned upon to invade sovereign nations on trumped-up charges for the ultimate purpose of gaining geopolitical and economic advantages. Besides, as we keep hearing over and over as of late form many pro-war sources, this invasion can and should be simply ‘justified’ by the premise of “bringing freedom to the Iraqi people.” Surely, such an altruistic endeavor should become its own reward and not be stained by other er…less benign motives. Right? -Saddam is gone -No WMDs to be found anywhere. Other than the ones used by your own forces of course. -No ties to AQ and/or 9/11 -No flowery showers, but Iraqis are certainly “liberated.” So then, what’s keeping you? Or more especifically, why not turn over control to the UN and have any number of Muslim neighbours involved in the reconstruction of Iraq under the guidance of _gulp_ the Iraqis themselves? Think about it, not only do they understand each other better, but it would finally put to rest the rumours that the US is there for a bunch of other reasons…just a tad more self-serving and nefarious than the the previously impeccable at first glance menu of reasons given for public consumption. ---
**Author:** ![skarf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@skarf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skarf)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/92 "2004-04-11T07:44:37Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Who “elected” them? No one. Anyway, my point was that they’re not puppets because we’re letting them disagree. > [@](#): > > Why should _you_ have anything to “gain” from Iraq’s future? Why shouldn’t we? Does that make us EeEevil if we do? > [@](#): > > Who gains and who doesn’t, with regards to their _own_ assets is their decision to make. I didn’t mean gain as in taking money from them. I meant a friendly Arab nation, lower oil prices and a little bit of anti-American belligerence gone. > [@](#): > > Nota bene: they never asked for you to invade them and any subsequent gratefulness they may have felt is understandably being buried along with their own copious dead. Some asked, some didn’t. Some are still grateful, some aren’t. > [@](#): > > Besides, unless you have a justification for naked 21st colonialism I am not aware of, it’s rather frowned upon to invade sovereign nations on trumped-up charges for the ultimate purpose of gaining geopolitical and economic advantages. 21st century colonialism? Where did you get that from? > [@](#): > > Besides, as we keep hearing over and over as of late form many pro-war sources, this invasion can and should be simply ‘justified’ by the premise of “bringing freedom to the Iraqi people.” Surely, such an altruistic endeavor should become its own reward and not be stained by other er…less benign motives. We’re trying to make it a win-win situation! 🆒 > [@](#): > > -Saddam is gone > > -No WMDs to be found anywhere. Other than the ones used by your own forces of course. > > -No ties to AQ and/or 9/11 > > -No flowery showers, but Iraqis are certainly “liberated.” They’re not liberated quite yet. We need to give them autonomy for that to happen. It’ll take a while. > [@](#): > > So then, what’s keeping you? Or more especifically, why not turn over control to the UN and have any number of Muslim neighbours involved in the reconstruction of Iraq under the guidance of _gulp_ the Iraqis themselves? I agree. Some of that is happening. > [@](#): > > Think about it, not only do they understand each other better, but it would finally put to rest the rumours that the US is there for a bunch of other reasons…just a tad more self-serving and nefarious than the the previously impeccable at first glance menu of reasons given for public consumption. Wait, so are you advocating withdraw or not? I’m confused here. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/93 "2004-04-11T10:11:59Z")
I am extremely upset by the images of dead bodies caused by the American bombings, especially women and children, coming out of Iraq. Has America gone crazy? > [@](#): > > [http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001900798\_insidefallujah11.html](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001900798_insidefallujah11.html) > > FALLUJAH, Iraq — Wounded children lie in a makeshift hospital, bandaged and bloodied from fighting between U.S. forces and Sunni guerrillas that has raged through the town’s alleyways for days. > > Hundreds of people have been killed in the fighting — no one can be sure of the number — and attempts at a cease-fire have so far failed to halt the bloodshed. > > There were too many dead and wounded for hospital workers in the besieged town to deal with. Outside a hastily erected field hospital, television footage shows corpses lying in the street, wrapped in bloodstained white sheets. The dead include small children, women and old men, a newborn baby. Beside the corpses is a pile of body parts that no one has had time to deal with. > > On radio, announcers accuse Americans of attacking helpless civilians, not even allowing them to move for treatment of their bullet wounds. In newspapers, the stories ask if the deaths of perhaps hundreds of innocent civilians is not a greater crime than the horrific deaths and mutilations of four Americans. > > For the past week, those have been the images, sounds and words that Iraqis have been taking in as everything in Iraq has focused on Fallujah. In this one week, the medium-sized city in the Sunni Triangle has come to symbolize for Iraqis everything that is wrong with the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq. This is morally repulsive and I don’t care for any attempts to justify it. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/94 "2004-04-11T11:03:22Z")
Hey, what do you want: it’s a great way to field test new ordinance and such. [http://www.armytimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-2426405.php](http://www.armytimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-2426405.php) Wussy. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/95 "2004-04-11T13:13:49Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > **RTFirefly:** > _“They who??”_ > > The Iraqis, the governing council. A disagreement isn’t a call for war. I didn’t say it was. But the group of Iraqis whose interests are most closely bound to our success, and by and large have no other source of legitimacy, are vehemently opposing our actions, and a number of them have left the country. They’re not _against_ us, perhaps, but they’ve backed way away from us. (Except Chalabi, of course.) If that doesn’t tell you something, what will? > [@](#): > > _“We’ve got a funny way of showing it, this past week. I don’t think this past week is redeemable. I think it’s the week when too many Iraqis made up their minds about us, and will be gunning for us. And in the process of defeating them, we lose even more to the other side. It sure looks like the Death Spiral. And staying will discredit whoever we work with, whoever we hand power over to.”_ > > This is all speculation. There’s nothing wrong with that, since I’m speculating too. There’s a Middle Eastern saying that runs something like, “Me and my brother against my cousin, but me and my brother and my cousin against the stranger.” This is not speculation: we will leave, sooner or later, and the Iraqis will stay. They have little to gain, and everything to lose, when it comes to siding with us _against_ their countrymen, but until the past week or so, we weren’t pushing anyone to make choices like that. And that’s the importance of this past week: now we’ve picked a fight (or two) and forced Iraqis to choose sides - are you with us or with the people of Fallujah in the north; are you with us or with al-Sadr’s militia in the south. For obvious reasons, hardly anybody chose to be on our side. The police, army, civil defense units we trained have switched sides, or melted into the woodwork. And I’ve already discussed the IGC. And clearly millions of people across Iraq have chosen to be against us. The number of cities, or in the case of Baghdad itself, sectors of cities that we no longer control, or in many cases even have access to, is staggering. > [@](#): > > _Not only that, we’ve got two choices if we stay, really. One is to ‘stay the course’ we’ve been following this past week - and you see where that leads._ > > It’s only been a week. Whether or not it will be resolved - we still don’t know. ‘Resolved’ how?? Exactly how do you undo the damage of this past week?? We were much better positioned to win Iraqi hearts and minds a year ago, and look where we are now. > [@](#): > > _The other is to hunker down in fortified enclaves, being present in Iraq but not really controlling anything. Less bloodshed, but ineffectual._ > > This has been proven to exacerbate the violence, actually. We were absent from Fallujah, and that’s what made it easy for Sadr to take the city. I think others have pointed out the problem here. But if we’d been absent from Fallujah in the first place, those Blackwater guys, whose errand still has never been explained (there’s speculation that they were really CIA, but no evidence) wouldn’t have ended up as charred corpses hanging from a bridge. > [@](#): > > _To whom? Who will even be willing to receive that handoff anymore?_ > > The governing council. We still have a couple of months to win. To win what, how? And the governing council is no longer that stupid. Except maybe Chalabi. > [@](#): > > \*January 31? First of all, who said January 31? \* > > It’s all over the [Iraqi constitution](http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html). OK. > [@](#): > > \*Second, even this June 30 is a long way off, at the current pace. January 31 is an eternity away. I don’t believe we’ll be in a position to guarantee elections anytime in 2005, even if we’re still there. \* > > This is all speculation. We don’t even know if we’ve won or lost. Why don’t we wait until we actually know. Won or lost what?? We’ve lost what legitimacy and support we had. Essentially nobody stands with us, and millions stand against us. Exactly how do we propose to change that? > [@](#): > > _What government? Again, what government? Haven’t you been listening? The Iraqi Governing Council is [off the reservation](http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/News/World/E4A96C536CD1CE3486256E7200102FF5?OpenDocument&Headline=Gunship+hits+Fallujah+after+women,+children+flee): Or [Juan Cole](http://www.juancole.com/2004_04_01_juancole_archive.html#108157786505341380):_ > > When September 11 happened, George Bush went up in the air. When stuff like this happens, it’s only natural to avoid it. George Bush is now, again, on the ground. There can still be a Governing Council. We haven’t lost. When the going gets tough, the Boy King takes a vacation. There still is a Governing Council, but even the exiles on it speak Arabic, and you can see how they’re reacting to events. We’ve lost the only battle that counts this past week: the one for Iraqi hearts and minds. Up until a week or so ago, there was at least some reason for them to believe that we were trying to help them, even if we were doing it ineptly. Now they see an occupier that is willing to shoot thousands of Iraqi civilians to restore order. We may be able to ‘win’ a street war with al-Sadr and his militia, but how many more people on the sidelines will we turn into enemies by doing so? “What is ‘millions’, Alex?” And even now, Bremer overrules the ‘Governing’ Council and [says al-Sadr’s choices are to surrender, or be captured, or be killed](http://www.juancole.com/2004_04_01_juancole_archive.html#108166864448546606). > [@](#): > > _And our credibility would be so much improved if we stay and get our asses kicked._ > > If we leave, that’s surrender, which means we got our asses kicked. If we leave now or later, it’s the same damn thing - we lose. We haven’t even lost and we’re already thinking about surrender. :rolleyes: [/quote] We haven’t lost militarily yet, but we aren’t exactly doing well, either, if you haven’t noticed. And the problem, I’ll remind you, is that simply by virtue of being in this sort of fight, we’ve lost. But if we continue the fight, we’ll be defeated and humiliated by the Iraqi people, and then we’ll still have to leave anyway. The question is, how dramatic do we want to make bin Laden’s recruiting posters? If we stay, there’s still plenty more opportunities for American corpses to be dragged through the streets. I’d prefer to bypass that phase. We came to Iraq ostensibly to liberate the Iraqis from Saddam. We’ve done that. Now they’re liberating themselves from us. It’ll be easier for them to do so, and less trouble for us, if we just pack up and leave. ---
**Author:** ![Frankenstein\_Monster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ccd318/32.png) [@Frankenstein\_Monster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frankenstein_Monster)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/96 "2004-04-11T13:17:43Z")
I think advocates of “staying in iraq” fail to appreciate the damage caused in Iraq by Americans’ arrogance and stupidity and even by their mere presence. And that would be even without outrages like those cited by Sailor. Americans can’t do any good in Iraq, whether or not that even is their intention. American’s presence in Iraq is profoundly counter-productive. This is something to consider if you think that we “have an obligation to stay the course” or “knew that it would be difficult”. The difficulty is precisely the American presence, actions and attitudes in the first place. So Americans are not achieving what they think they are by staying there. [Here](http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4711668/) is another nice illustration (obviously there have been any number of these analyses over the past couple of months). Note especially the part about the Marines in Fallujah, about halfway the article. > [@](#): > > The Marines’ optimistic mission > > Before members of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force arrived in Fallujah last month to replace units of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, they were encouraged to grow mustaches as a gesture of goodwill in a country where most men sport some form of facial hair. They also attended courses on Islamic culture and conversational Arabic. > > The Marines hoped their attention to local sensitivities would help to pacify Fallujah… > > (…) > > The Marines were cautioned by local tribal and religious leaders that the best way to avoid violence was to stay away from the city… > > (…) > > But on March 26, two days before the closure of al-Hawza, the Marines entered Fallujah to conduct a raid on suspected insurgents. What began as an early morning search operation spiraled into a day-long firefight with residents in which 15 Iraqis and one Marine were killed. > > In the course of a day, all the goodwill the Marines had tried to build evaporated. Also consider the part about al-Sadr. Maybe the Americans don’t like him. (Many Iraqis don’t like him, or so I have read.) But I wish the Americans would realize that there is **nothing whatsoever** they have a right to do about it. It’s not their country!! “Bremer also chose…” “Bremer and his top aides hoped…” “By late March, Bremer decided…” (Insert some Pit expletives here) Aside from this, I also happen to think that many people exaggerate the risk of “civil war” if Americans leave. Time and again, I am struck by the relatively moderate and conciliatory stance of Iraqi leaders and “factions”, even ones we consider “extremist”, and yes, even Moqtada al-Sadr. Moqtada held off on calling for violence against occupation troops until the very last days. He is much less belligerent and violent than the Americans! Articles like [this](http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1174521,00.html) seem to be the main argument “for” the risk of civil war. I’m not saying there is no risk. I’m interpreting that there are still many tendencies working against escalation of such events. [Here (long PDF document)](http://www.mideasti.org/pdfs/543-566mejCole5704.pdf) ([HTML](http://66.102.11.104/search?q=cache:FzUQUJu-kfsJ:www.mideasti.org/pdfs/543-566mejCole5704.pdf+Cole+Shiite+Middle+East+Institute&hl=en&ie=UTF-8)) is an article about Moqtada al-Sadr (and just a glimpse of the complex dynamics of the interaction of factions in Iraq). ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/97 "2004-04-11T13:29:02Z")
The USA Has made this mistake before. Invading a country under pretext of liberating it and then wanting to keep it. It happened in Cuba and the Philippines where US forces came to “liberate” them from Spanish rule and then stayed on so that the locals just went from fighting the Spanish to fighting the Americans. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/98 "2004-04-11T13:29:45Z")
> [@Frankenstein Monster](#): > > I think advocates of “staying in iraq” fail to appreciate the damage caused in Iraq by Americans’ arrogance and stupidity and even by their mere presence. > > Americans can’t do any good in Iraq, whether or not that even is their intention. American’s presence in Iraq is profoundly counter-productive. This is something to consider if you think that we “have an obligation to stay the course” or “knew that it would be difficult”. The difficulty is precisely the American presence, actions and attitudes in the first place. So Americans are not achieving what they think they are by staying there. I’m as yet unconvinced that we have America’s “best and brightest” in all of the jobs over there, (or over here). I’m in favor of rapid radical change of the US’s team, strategy, and strategy team. I’m still convinced that we have the capacity to pull this off. We do need a new team, ( at least replacements for some key players), working on it posthaste though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/99 "2004-04-11T13:37:59Z")
> [@skarf](#): > > **RTFirefly:** > \*January 31? First of all, who said January 31? \* > > It’s all over the [Iraqi constitution](http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html). Now that I’ve had time to search the Iraqi constitution, I see that the elections to take place by January 31 are to a transitional Assembly which AFAICT will not be able to act against the will of the executive authority, which will be persons from the present IGC. (Assuming any of this comes to pass, of course.) The timetable for real elections pursuant to a new Constitution is December 2005, it seems. That would be in Article 61(D), for those keeping score at home. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2004, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402/100 "2004-04-11T13:50:40Z")
> [@SimonX](#): > > I’m as yet unconvinced that we have America’s “best and brightest” in all of the jobs over there, (or over here). I’m in favor of rapid radical change of the US’s team, strategy, and strategy team. > I’m still convinced that we have the capacity to pull this off. We do need a new team, ( at least replacements for some key players), working on it posthaste though. Unfortunately, the new team won’t be installed until January 20, and by then it’ll be far too late for Iraq. Bush and Bremer are both saying we can just teach these guys a lesson militarily, and that will get us on the road back to normalcy. These guys seem to be completely entrenched in their POV. I don’t see that this Administration has the capacity for change, once they’ve set their course. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-time-to-admit-mistake-withdraw/238402.md?page=6)