# Iraq Vote: early returns suggest Islamist Government **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 21, 2005, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547 "2005-12-21T00:56:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2005, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/1 "2005-12-21T00:56:30Z")
[Christian Science Monitor:](http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1221/p01s03-woiq.html) > [@](#): > > Stretching newfound democratic muscle upon their first chance to elect a full-term government, Iraqis overwhelmingly threw their support behind religious parties defined along sectarian lines and ethnicity. If this result holds in January, won’t this more closely align Iraq with Iran? Is this major bad news for the Bush Administration? Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Weirddave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2005, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/2 "2005-12-21T02:05:32Z")
I think it’s great news. While the Shi’ite’s hold a majority, they are split amongst themselves which will help keep them from being able to impose their will unilaterally on the Suni and Kurdish minorities. In turn, both the Kurds and Sunis will be able to have a significant influence in Iraq’s policies. As for moving closer to Iran, ehh, they may, personally I think Iran is going to move closer to Iraq as the old guard is replaced over the next couple of years. People seem to assume that just because Iran is seeking influence in Iraq that they will have it. Few Iraqis are going to willingly put themselves under the thumb of Iran, shared religion or no. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/3 "2005-12-22T22:10:28Z")
Was there any real chance of a secular government? Was there anybody on the ballot that could have been considered at least relatively secular, or at least more secular than the Shiite bloc that seems to be in lead? Oh, and this could be good news for the Bush administration on at least one front; them allowing an Islamic gov’t to be elected might soften the accusations that they are at war with Islam. My personal opinion is that the world needs less theocracies, but if that’s what they elect, that’s what they elect. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/4 "2005-12-22T22:18:55Z")
> [@Revtim](#): > > Was there any real chance of a secular government? Was there anybody on the ballot that could have been considered at least relatively secular, or at least more secular than the Shiite bloc that seems to be in lead? Yes, there was. There was a list made up of secular liberal and socialist parties, headed by interim Prime Minister Allawi ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/5 "2005-12-22T22:19:15Z")
[QUOTE=Revtim] Was there any real chance of a secular government? Was there anybody on the ballot that could have been considered at least relatively secular, or at least more secular than the Shiite bloc that seems to be in lead?[/QUOTE The party (or alliance of parties) of which Allawi is a member. Can’t remember the name. But who cares about whether Iraq is headed towards an Islamic government. We got ID banned in Dover!! 🙂 (just commenting on the relative number of responses in the threads on the two subjects.) ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/6 "2005-12-22T22:25:49Z")
> [@Patty O'Furniture](#): > > [Christian Science Monitor:](http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1221/p01s03-woiq.html) > > If this result holds in January, won’t this more closely align Iraq with Iran? Is this major bad news for the Bush Administration? > > Thoughts? It wouldn’t be the best possible news. However, there might be one bright side. Maybe such a government would tell the US to get its military the hell out. That would be good cover for the US to get its military the hell out. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/7 "2005-12-22T22:36:12Z")
> [@Weirddave](#): > > I think it’s great news. While the Shi’ite’s hold a majority, they are split amongst themselves which will help keep them from being able to impose their will unilaterally on the Suni and Kurdish minorities. That’s assuming the nascent constitution will hold under a fundamentalist Shi’ite dominated government. Just what the ME needed! Another theocracy. Mission accomplished. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2005, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/8 "2005-12-22T23:47:27Z")
Is someone suggesting that the spead of Islamic extremism was met by taking down the sole secular government in the Middle-East, to have it replaced by _Surprise!_ an Islamic Theocracy. That would hardly be charitable. No wait, it was WMD, or am I confused now, it’s hard to keep track. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/9 "2005-12-23T00:42:28Z")
> [@Sevastopol](#): > > Is someone suggesting that the spead of Islamic extremism was met by taking down the sole secular government in the Middle-East, to have it replaced by _Surprise!_ an Islamic Theocracy. > > That would hardly be charitable. No wait, it was WMD, or am I confused now, it’s hard to keep track. But it will be a **democratic** Islamic theocracy. Just like Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/10 "2005-12-23T01:12:43Z")
> [@Weirddave](#): > > I think it’s great news. While the Shi’ite’s hold a majority, they are split amongst themselves which will help keep them from being able to impose their will unilaterally on the Suni and Kurdish minorities. How are they split amongst themselves? One party got 80% of the vote in Basra, and I would presume an even higher margins in other, less metropolitian Shitte areas. That’s a pretty strong mandate from the Shitte community. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/11 "2005-12-23T01:50:50Z")
Even if the Islamists win the most seats, they will probably not win enough to form a majority government. That means they still have to work within a coalition to get anything accomplished. The whole system was set up to prevent the dominance of one group over all others. However… There’s a chance they’ll get enough seats to form a majority. If they do, and if they then use that power to start oppressing the Sunnis, we’re going to get that civil war. ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/12 "2005-12-23T02:32:41Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Even if the Islamists win the most seats, they will probably not win enough to form a majority government. That means they still have to work within a coalition to get anything accomplished. The whole system was set up to prevent the dominance of one group over all others. Unfortunately, the compromises inherent in a coalition system, especially in a country like Iraq with such a fractured polity, means that the government is unlikely to have the strong hand it needs to deal with its problems. And you can imagine that the frustration level in that country is pretty high. Are people there going to tolerate a government that dithers, and spends all its energy trying to keep from flying apart? I doubt they’ll have that much patience. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/13 "2005-12-23T03:13:32Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Even if the Islamists win the most seats, they will probably not win enough to form a majority government. That means they still have to work within a coalition to get anything accomplished. From what I understand, their most likely coalition partner would be the main Kurdish party, who probably wouldn’t be to adverse to oppressing the Sunnis either. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/14 "2005-12-23T04:04:21Z")
Both of your points are completely valid. I believe the outcome everyone was hoping for was that the combined Sunni, Kurdish, and secular Shiite parties would get enough seats to form a majority coalition government, or at least to provide a strong countervaling force aganst the religious Shiites. If that happens, things could be fine. But I’m certainly getting nervous… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/15 "2005-12-23T04:48:22Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > But I’m certainly getting nervous… Yeah, I’ve been there for a few months now watching as things shaped up. I don’t think that Iraq will specifically start moving towards Iran (as in ‘merge’)…lots of bad blood there on both sides, religion or no religion. Oh, I think they will be more friendly but it will be a friendship tempered with a hefty portion of mistrust and even animosity…IMO at least. But an Islamist Government? I’d say that in one form or another thats a pretty high probability. Its what KIND of Islamist Government thats going to be the key difference. If its simply a (Iraqi unique) Democratic government with aspects of Islamic law and perhaps even some influence…well, that would work especially in the short term. If its an Islamist Government a la Iran…well, that could work also in the sort term. If its another Taliban in the making…well, that would be a major problem short OR long term. > [@Sevastopol](#): > > Is someone suggesting that the spead of Islamic extremism was met by taking down the sole secular government in the Middle-East, to have it replaced by Surprise! an Islamic Theocracy. Ah yes…the good old days under Saddam and his secular government. Perhaps ‘secular government’(s) aren’t always what they are cracked up to be, ehe? And perhaps the converse might be true…that a government with its foundation in a religious faith might not be the end of the world either? Preconceptions and all that, ehe? 😛 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/16 "2005-12-23T04:51:01Z")
[Iraqi parties threaten boycott](http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A65EB454-334F-4D1B-86D6-72D539C69D0F.htm) > [@](#): > > Dozens of Sunni Arab and secular Shia groups have threatened to boycott Iraq’s new legislature if complaints about election fraud are not reviewed by an international body. > A joint statement issued on Thursday by 35 political groups that competed in last week’s elections said the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, IECI, which oversaw the ballot, should be disbanded. ---
**Author:** ![bannerrefugee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c68b51/32.png) [@bannerrefugee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bannerrefugee)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/17 "2005-12-23T05:38:28Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Ah yes…the good old days under Saddam and his secular government. Perhaps ‘secular government’(s) aren’t always what they are cracked up to be, ehe? And perhaps the converse might be true…that a government with its foundation in a religious faith might not be the end of the world either? Preconceptions and all that, ehe? 😛 > > -XT Hey Sam. This isn’t about what was good for Iraqi’s. Remember all those people killed in NY? Now that we’ve spent 500 billion I guess it’s a little too late to worry about that. ---
**Author:** ![bannerrefugee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c68b51/32.png) [@bannerrefugee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bannerrefugee)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/18 "2005-12-23T05:49:23Z")
> [@](#): > > =Ah yes…the good old days under Saddam and his secular government. Perhaps ‘secular government’(s) aren’t always what they are cracked up to be. I forgot about the twenty one hundred and something US soldiers killed and the 30,000 or more likely 90,000 Iraqi’s killed. I guess maybe to elect…what? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/19 "2005-12-23T06:13:26Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Perhaps ‘secular government’(s) aren’t always what they are cracked up to be, ehe? And perhaps the converse might be true…that a government with its foundation in a religious faith might not be the end of the world either? Preconceptions and all that, ehe? Remember, our “preconceptions” about the undesirability of an Iraqi theocracy were largely encouraged by our own Administration. They were the ones who’ve been assuring us in recent years that what the Iraqi people were getting was freedom and democracy rather than rule by clerics. In Bush’s [own words as of June 2004](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/06/20040629-4.html): > [@](#): > > “No democracy can allow religious people to impose their own view of perfection on others, because this invites cruelty and arrogance that are foreign to every faith. And all people in a democracy have the right to their own religious beliefs. […] The promise of democracy is fulfilled in freedom of speech, the rule of law, limits on the power of the state, economic freedom, respect for women, and religious tolerance. […] In just 15 months, the Iraqi people have left behind one of the worst regimes in the Middle East, and their country is becoming the world’s newest democracy.” Now it looks as though those blithe estimates have to be [modified](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/13/AR2005081300853.html): > [@](#): > > The U.S. decision to invade Iraq was justified in part by the goal of establishing a secular and modern Iraq that honors human rights and unites disparate ethnic and religious communities. […] > “We set out to establish a democracy, but we’re slowly realizing we will have some form of Islamic republic,” said another U.S. official familiar with policymaking from the beginning, who like some others interviewed would speak candidly only on the condition of anonymity. “That process is being repeated all over.” As with the early estimates of a short duration and a low cost for the Iraq war, the optimism about the prospects for a “secular and modern” Iraqi democracy was largely promoted and encouraged by our own leaders. If what they really meant was that “secular governments aren’t always what they are cracked up to be”, and that an openly Islamist Iraqi regime—'scuse me, I should say a “government with its foundation in a religious faith”—would be perfectly fine with them, well, I wish they’d said so earlier. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2005, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547/20 "2005-12-23T06:45:55Z")
> [@bannerrefugee](#): > > I forgot about the twenty one hundred and something US soldiers killed and the 30,000 or more likely 90,000 Iraqi’s killed. I guess maybe to elect…what? 1. George Bush. 2. So let me get this straight, because I’m having some trouble: In order to stop the spread of Islamic terrorism, the only secular govt in the Mid-East was violently overthrown and replaced by a govt sympathetic to Western-Hostile Islamic non-state and state actors, including the imminently nuclear Iran. But that is OK because Saddam was bad anyway? Or see (1) above? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-vote-early-returns-suggest-islamist-government/336547.md?page=2)