# Iraq - Which Way Out? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 28, 2003, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996 "2003-06-28T17:21:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Tejota](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Tejota](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tejota)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/61 "2003-07-01T02:24:17Z")
Iraq has not in fact been **liberated** , they have been **conquored**. The conquoring power, _claims_ that it was liberating them, now that it’s original claim of having been defending itself is shown to be bullshit. At the moment, it is just a claim. And one that the Iraqi people are justified in not believing. They will have actually _been_ liberated at the point free elections are allowed, and the USA either withdraws it’s troops or is invited to stay. Until that time, saying that they have been liberated is, quite simply, a lie. Now, I’m sure **Sam** is well aware that the planned elections have been cancelled indefinitely. But still he uses the term _liberated_. It is also a lie to say that they are better off. As **Col** has already pointed out. Trading a brutal dictatorship in which there was basic power, water, and security from crime for a combination of anarchy and occupation, rampant crime, uncertain power and water. This is by no means an improvement. Now, we do anticipate that _someday_ the power will get fixed and the police will begin functioning again, and on that day they will (presumably) not be under the thumb of a brutal dictator. But that day is not yet, nor is it in the forseeable future the way things are going. But hey. Iraqis are **ecstatic** about being liberated, and no amount of facts on the ground that say otherwise are going to get in the way of a good opinion. …RIIIGHT… ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/62 "2003-07-01T03:04:00Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by quixotic78 \* > In other news, here’s some more fuel for the fire: [another poll!](http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/06/30/sprj.irq.iraq.poll/index.html) Be afraid, Bushies. Be very afraid. ---
**Author:** ![chula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a4c791/32.png) [@chula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chula)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/63 "2003-07-01T03:35:31Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > \*\*That’s one factor in favor of the U.N. But there are many factors working against - mainly, the bureaucratic infighting and disagreements on tactics between U.N. nations that can make these peacekeeping efforts turn into little more than exercises of rule-by-committee. > > Look at what the U.N. did (or didn’t do) in Rwanda. A failure that makes anything that might conceivably happen in Iraq pale in significance. 800,000 dead people, hacked to death with machetes. And why? Because the U.N. couldn’t get off its ass. It was easier to just be paralyzed into inaction due to constant bickering between U.N. nations, than to actually do something and prevent a genocide. > > And they’re not doing too much better in the Congo today, are they? \*\* You could also point to Sierra Leone, where UN and ECOMOG forces are widely credited with ending a long and brutal civil war, and setting up a viable program for transition. As others have pointed out, the UN’s failures in Rwanda and the Congo have to do with Security Council members _refusing_ to authorize action. Here, perception does matter, since US troops will inevitably be seen as an imperialist force. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/64 "2003-07-01T06:51:42Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Boo Boo Foo \* > In that context, the bottom line is this… my understanding is that the current annual wage of Iraqi per year is $2,500US. That would be doubling the actual estimated pre-war 2002 national per capita income. The per capita income c. 2002 was est. at $1k-1.5K, something on the order of a 70 percent drop from the highs in the 1970s and 1980s. Insofar as the Iraqi economy has effectively ceased to operate at all, one can expect real income has dropped further from that point. > [@](#): > > Obviously, some lucky bastards are earning much more, but I would contend an awful lot are far below $2,500 per year as well. And that’s very low. I’m told that on a relative basis, Iraqi’s were much better off during the golden era in the mid-late 70’s - then the Iran-Iraq War started sending the country broke and the general GDP per capita started falling and has never crept back up again. And during the decade of sanctions, it kept sliding - even more propitiously I believe. Precipitously, yes, much of the 70 percent decrease seems to have occured during the 1990s. The first half of the 1980s was not that bad, ex. the war deaths, but the economy appears to have begun coming apart as it dragged on. > [@](#): > > Hence, there’s a very deep pool of resentment - latent resentment over how things “used to be” in the 70’s compared to now. Further to that, Iraqis on the ground are making highly unflattering comparisions between post-war recovery under Sadaam in 1990, where national mobilization was intense, and the post-war chaos under the present ‘Provisional Government.’ The comparision is perhaps unfair in a strictly logical sense, insofar as it would be expected that a collapsed government makes things harder in tems of mobilization than a fairly efficient police state, but frankly the average Mohammed doesn’t care for political abstractions right now. What the average Mohammed can see is that Sadaam’s well oiled state got Iraq more or less up and running with brutal efficiency after the war in 1990, whereas the Americas can’t seem to get their heads out of their political asses to focus on practicalities, and car jackings, random and not so random violence, looting etc. continue at levels the Iraqis have never seen in their lifetimes. Sam can go on about the bright future, although as I have indicated in the past, achieving the bright future depends on attracting levels of net capital flows equal to that of all the region plus Africa, to one unstable country alone. This is a non-trivial hurdle, and Sam et al’s minimizing of the challenges and the danger of the situation with absurd comparisions to Des Moines do not help. Americans need a rather large political mobilization to make Iraq work, and that includes ponying up the political capital to say this is going to be painful and **expensive** but in for a fucking penny, in for a fucking pound. Or perhaps we’ll settle for Afghanistan II, and someone will tell us about the 500 penny ante development programs doing so much good as the country stumbles on in chaos. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/65 "2003-07-01T07:02:56Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by John Mace \* > Question for the UN supporters here. Why would that body be any better at dealing with the situation on the ground in Iraq than the US? A number of UN bodies have some pretty damned good staff, and with regional expertise that far exceeds the rather poor pool the US has at hand. > [@](#): > > Would Iraqi opposition forces be any less likely to take pot shots at UN peacekeepers than at US troops? Depends on how it was done and in what context. Internationalization does have some popular support as far as I can tell from my contacts. Taking away the sting of occupation. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/66 "2003-07-01T07:13:02Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by (Sam) \* > Gee, Coll… After parsing through that flame-fest of a message, it turns out that you didn’t actually disagree with a whole lot of what I said. I apologize again for the excesses. However I do disagree with some fundamental characterizations, but I think that is fairly clear. > [@](#): > > Basically, your accusation is that I’m ‘spinning’ the data to sound more rosy than it is. But you don’t dispute the basic facts. At this moment, 76% of Iraqis want the U.S. to stay, at least until an interim or permanent government is set up. Yes, and they want such a government, interim or permanent set up soon, which is not in the cards. Now I sympathize and inpart support Bremmer’s decision on this, but that leads to radically different characterizations of the situation than your spin. Radically. I see you have back-peddled on the estatic claim. > [@](#): > > So why didn’t you level some of your patented vitriol at the other posters who were painting a much more biased description of total chaos and a hostile population screaming for the U.S. to leave? Oh yeah… Because you’re _biased_. Because I love you so. Actually yours was the first message that caught my eye, and my irritation with the downplaying of challenges remains high. Now, Sam, I understand and indeed support your desire to support the reconstruction operation, and cheap shots at Bush are not perhaps helpful. However the reality is that so far reconstruction is a botched job and this Administration needs to fucking mobilize. I’m sitting hear still waiting, more than a month now, for word on investment guarantees. This kind of stuff, these mechanics should have been in place already. Numerous detials … Let me be categorical, for htose of us looking at this here, it’s pretty fucking clear that initial plans were inadequate and to date inadequate materials and support have been mobilized. Way too much improvisation by way too many people with way too little knowledge of the region and its issues. That’s a serious damned problem. Serious. People like you would serve the cause better if you started thumping for the Admin to pony up some capital and roll up the sleeves, and stop minimizing the problems. Pretending is not the way to overcome the challenge, getting serious about the analysis and digging in is. Or so my experience tells me. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/67 "2003-07-01T07:21:26Z")
Correction on Iraqi per capita GDP data. Just took another look at my data tables, and the characterization I gave is off. The following I believe is rebased on 2000 dollars and exchange rates, but the footnoting on the table is not clearly expressed so take caution: 1970s to 1979 saw a per capita GDP of ~ 10-15K, with large fluctuations. 1980s saw a collapse to 8-5k range, again with long term decline and substantial year on year fluctuations. 1990s saw collapse to the 1K level. 2003? Well, who know what’s the current GDP. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/68 "2003-07-01T07:30:50Z")
I further thought this would be of interest for our resident lawyers: [http://www.export.gov/iraq/pdf/iraq\_commercial\_law\_current.pdf](http://www.export.gov/iraq/pdf/iraq_commercial_law_current.pdf) Minty, Dewey and others are likely to find this at once interesting and in part horrifying. I’ve put some of my lawyers in touch with these guys to help clarify what they tell me are errors. For my part, it’s all par for the course. As a general matter, however, thoughts are welcome, might be fun to see what your reaction is to the state of law in our fine region. ---
**Author:** ![Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boo_Boo_Foo)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/69 "2003-07-01T13:27:25Z")
Gee that’s a mighty drop in per capita GDP isn’t it Coll? Holy shit… from 10-15K almost 25 years ago to under 2K in 2003. Man, that’s a country which must really be hurting. Every aspect of their lives must have copped a total trashing over the last 2 decades - in terms of quality of lifestyle. Poor bastards… what a dreadful fate. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/70 "2003-07-01T13:59:15Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > As a general matter, however, thoughts are welcome, might be fun to see what your reaction is to the state of law in our fine region. I read through the executive summary, but nothing there particularly surprised me. Par for the course for such regimes, really. My only surprise is that they’re apparently still describing those laws as if they’re actually in effect, which does not seem to me to be the most effective way of bringing badly-needed capital into the country. It’s something of a joke to insist that foreigners cannot own the “means of production” when the entire bloody country is being occupied and controlled (kind of controlled, anyway) by foreign armies. ---
**Author:** ![flonks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3ab097/32.png) [@flonks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flonks)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/71 "2003-07-01T14:03:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > \*\* It’s something of a joke to insist that foreigners cannot own the “means of production” when the entire bloody country is being occupied and controlled (kind of controlled, anyway) by foreign armies. \*\* I thought Iraq has been **liberated** , not occupied? “Hey, fuck your constitution, we control the country and we say who is allowed to own what!” Let’s see if the Iraqis will appreciate that… ---
**Author:** ![Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boo_Boo_Foo)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/72 "2003-07-01T14:05:36Z")
I read that Executive Summary as well Minty. I’m currently working on some other stuff so I didn’t get much past Page 12 or so. It’ll be interesting to see, if resistance to reforms to commercial law within Iraq manifests itself in the near future, as to how much of that resistance is based on sound logic, and how much will be based on pride being hurt by once again, having an outside power implement yet another series of legal frameworks. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/73 "2003-07-01T14:12:56Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Boo Boo Foo \* > Gee that’s a mighty drop in per capita GDP isn’t it Coll? Holy shit… from 10-15K almost 25 years ago to under 2K in 2003. In reality it is likely under USD 1000 now. > [@](#): > > Man, that’s a country which must really be hurting. Every aspect of their lives must have copped a total trashing over the last 2 decades - in terms of quality of lifestyle. > > Poor bastards… what a dreadful fate. Well, now you understand the benchmarks and the dangers. Further to that, I would hazard the opinion that support for continued American presence hinges on an almost magical faith in a rebound in living standards. Iraqis, and indeed Arabs in general have some… somewhat exagerated ideas about what can be achieved by the US. That is, regretably, very, very dangerous. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/74 "2003-07-01T14:20:08Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > I read through the executive summary, but nothing there particularly surprised me. Par for the course for such regimes, really. My only surprise is that they’re apparently still describing those laws as if they’re actually in effect, which does not seem to me to be the most effective way of bringing badly-needed capital into the country. Well, unless abrogated, the law of the land remains the law of the land, despite some magical thinking seen on these boards in the past 3 months. CPA-I has suspended some portions, however others are considered too sensitive to touch. Ownership clauses, e.g., can’t be seen as being abrogated by the occupying power or you’re in a world of shit in re legitmacy. As for the capital, well, … yes. Read over the briefings from the Jordan based CPA office and their encouraging assertions that the risk is manageable, just be creative! Easy for them to say, when you’ve got a situation of no clear title, little ability to vet partners and “Western” targets being shot at with moderately heavy weaponry. Fucking fabulous. > [@](#): > > It’s something of a joke to insist that foreigners cannot own the “means of production” when the entire bloody country is being occupied and controlled (kind of controlled, anyway) by foreign armies. Ownership… beneficial control… Come on man, get creative. You should see some of the draft contracts our lawyers have been kicking about. Needless to say, at present, everything is cash first, delivery second. No LCs, no fucking nothing. That’s fucking brilliant for trade, and USG still hasn’t advanced a plan for facilities. I saw some advance thinking, it looked good but it depended on securitizing a good deal of petrol receipts and I don’t know the numbers make sense. Further to that, you need legit. backing on the securities, that means USG ponying up some major insurance commitments. Like I said, this ain’t the self-funding little war our innocents thought it was going to be. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/75 "2003-07-01T19:25:57Z")
> [@](#): > > [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle\_east/3032988.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3032988.stm) > > Iraq’s most senior Shia cleric has issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, opposing US plans to set up a council of Iraqis to draft a new constitution. Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for general elections in the country to choose representatives of the Iraqi people instead. > > The US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, plans to set up a new political council as the next step towards a future Iraqi government, but BBC regional analyst Sadeq Saba says the Ayatollah’s ruling is a serious blow to the American plans. > . . . . . > Ayatollah Sistani is Iraq’s highest religious authority and his fatwas are followed by many Shia Muslims, who are in the majority in Iraq. The American forces in Iraq have repeatedly praised him for his moderate views as he believes in the separation of religion and state and he rarely makes political statements. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/76 "2003-07-01T22:29:34Z")
As an economic naif, some things stand out in glaring relief. When we say “investment”, what do we mean? Its really a lot like a loan, isn’t it? The capital is invested in expectation of return, with interest. And theres the rub, no? Because interest is coupled with risk, in most minds. Iraq must then be the biggest “junk bond” market in Creation. Much has been said about the need for major investment in Iraq’s oil industry in order to bring it “up to snuff”. Not being a sophisticate in these things, I dont place a lot of trust in the estimates I’ve read, they’re kind of all over the map. So lets just leave it at: “Lots! Great big slobbering hunks of cash!” Call it investment if you like, but its still more of a loan, and the interest rate is going to be a doozy because, after all, nobody can be really sure whats going to happen unless…unless… America is the guarantor, one way or the other. We either stay, and condemn our troops to a miserable occupation of a hostile nation, and thus guarantee the safety and surety of investment OR… We guarantee the loans directly. If France, say, will invest in Iraqi oil production, at a modest/reasonable rate of interest, we will guarantee they will get thier money. Of course, this would depend on a wildly optimistic view of Iraq’s future. Wild and unsubstantiated optimism seems to be the order of the day on the Potomac. Of course, we will be mortgaging oil that really doesn’t belong to us, but why spoil such a lovely thing with a taint of legality? After all, our premise is bogus to begin with: it stinks on ice to wreck a country and then hock _their_ resources in order to rebuild what we’ve wrecked. To add insult to injury, we have American companies making a profit on the deal. Question: can the Admin commit to such a financial arrangement without Congressional approval? Would Congress agree to attaching Count Iraqula to our fiscal jugular for the foreseeable future? ---
**Author:** ![shelbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@shelbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shelbo)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2003, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/77 "2003-07-01T23:54:20Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > > Or perhaps we’ll settle for Afghanistan II, and someone will tell us about the 500 penny ante development programs doing so much good as the country stumbles on in chaos. 500 points of light? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2003, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/78 "2003-07-02T00:24:44Z")
> [@](#): > > Or perhaps we’ll settle for Afghanistan II, and someone will tell us about the 500 penny ante development programs… Will [CentCom](http://www.centcom.mil/CENTCOMNews/news_release.asp?NewsRelease=20030699.txt) [do](http://www.centcom.mil/CENTCOMNews/news_release.asp?NewsRelease=20030703.txt) ? ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2003, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/79 "2003-07-02T10:19:44Z")
From the CentCom link provided by squink: > [@](#): > > The 418th Civil Affairs Battalion completed the Tikrit Women’s College project. The unit provided the college with paper, light bulbs, ceiling fans, a refrigerator, two safes, several calculators and school supplies. It is like a bad joke. Yeah, sorry we bombed your home and killed your family. Here, have a lightbulb and a ceiling fan. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2003, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996/80 "2003-07-02T11:08:21Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > **the kind of khayali crap that got the Admin in trouble** Translation _khayâlî_ = ‘imaginary’ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-which-way-out/184996.md?page=3)