# Iraqi Election News Debate **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 22, 2005, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070 "2005-01-22T11:50:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2005, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/1 "2005-01-22T11:50:51Z")
Starting a general thread for the events leading up to the Iraqi election. Within hours of the candidates being known, the first political strikes are happening. [http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/21/iraq.chalabi/](http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/21/iraq.chalabi/) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) – Iraq’s interim defense minister said former Iraq exile leader Ahmed Chalabi will be arrested Saturday and handed over to Interpol to face bank fraud charges in Jordan. Chalabi’s group is expected to gain a significant number of seats, but it seems that the political wars have already started. If you are unfamiliar with Chalabi, he is an expat to the US who was… to say the least, influential in the Bush Administration’s decision to attack Iraq, and provided much of the “intelligence” that they had. Shaalan, the defense minister, had been in a mudslinging fight with Chalabi over each other’s embezzlement of funds. Also, there was another attack on a Shiite mosque, killing 20. So far, a not-too-peaceful start. Hopefully the arrest and attacks won’t provoke responses. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2005, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/2 "2005-01-22T12:07:46Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Starting a general thread for the events leading up to the Iraqi election. Within hours of the candidates being known, the first political strikes are happening. > > [CNN.com - Iraqi minister: Chalabi will be arrested - Jan 21, 2005](http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/01/21/iraq.chalabi/) > > Chalabi’s group is expected to gain a significant number of seats, but it seems that the political wars have already started. If you are unfamiliar with Chalabi, he is an expat to the US who was… to say the least, influential in the Bush Administration’s decision to attack Iraq, and provided much of the “intelligence” that they had. Shaalan, the defense minister, had been in a mudslinging fight with Chalabi over each other’s embezzlement of funds. > > Also, there was another attack on a Shiite mosque, killing 20. > > So far, a not-too-peaceful start. Hopefully the arrest and attacks won’t provoke responses. :: shakes head :: …Chalabi was a known fugitve wanted by Jordan well before the invasion-and only now they want to turn him over? After all the damage he’s done? Why wasn’t he arrested and sent to Jordan years ago? Exactly what has changed between prewar and post war in regards to Chalabi’s status with Jordan? Madness. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2005, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/3 "2005-01-22T23:22:06Z")
In related news, the White House has issued a statement where George W. Bush insists he never had political relations with Chalabi. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2005, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/4 "2005-01-22T23:42:53Z")
> [@Banquet Bear](#): > > Exactly what has changed between prewar and post war in regards to Chalabi’s status with Jordan? It’s not events in Jordan driving this, it’s the defense minister’s dealings with Lebanon: [Mystery in Iraq as $300 Million is Taken Abroad](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/22/international/middleeast/22baghdad.html?oref=login&incamp=article_popular_4) > [@](#): > > Earlier this month, according to Iraqi officials, $300 million in American bills was taken out of Iraq’s Central Bank, put into boxes and quietly put on a charter jet bound for Lebanon. > The money was to be used to buy tanks and other weapons from international arms dealers, the officials say, as part of an accelerated effort to assemble an armored division for the fledgling Iraqi Army. But exactly where the money went, and to whom, and for precisely what, remains a mystery, at least to Iraqis who say they have been trying to find out. > The $300 million deal appears to have been arranged outside the American-designed financial controls Chalabi’s been raising a stink about this, and the defense minister doesn’t like it. You’d think a worldwide news organization like CNN could manage to include at least a sentence on the defense minister’s motive. Doesn’t anyone there go to journalism school? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/5 "2005-01-23T00:08:54Z")
$300 million? Chump change, kind you find in the sofa while you search for the remote. Still, it does bring up a few interesting questions. A lot of interesting questions. For instance, whose money was it? Our, most likely, sooner or later. And what were they intending to buy? Weapons, we are told. Iraq doesn’t have weapons? They don’t have tanks? They _had_ tanks, didn’t they, did we blow them all up? Reminds me of the joke from the Viet Nam era: “For Sale: one South Viet Nam Army rifle, never fired, only dropped once.” And why do they need to buy them on the open market, from the unnamed “arms dealers”? Shouldn’t they buy them from their bestest buddies in the world, us? Wouldn’t we be inclined to give them a good deal? A very good deal? Still, in the middle of a hurricane of ballistic turds, whats a mere booger, more or less? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/6 "2005-01-23T00:46:00Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > $300 million? Chump change, kind you find in the sofa while you search for the remote. Still, it does bring up a few interesting questions. A lot of interesting questions. For instance, whose money was it? Our, most likely, sooner or later. And what were they intending to buy? Weapons, we are told. Iraq doesn’t have weapons? They don’t have tanks? They _had_ tanks, didn’t they, did we blow them all up? Reminds me of the joke from the Viet Nam era: “For Sale: one South Viet Nam Army rifle, never fired, only dropped once.” > > And why do they need to buy them on the open market, from the unnamed “arms dealers”? Shouldn’t they buy them from their bestest buddies in the world, us? Wouldn’t we be inclined to give them a good deal? A very good deal? > > Still, in the middle of a hurricane of ballistic turds, whats a mere booger, more or less? Strange, so you’re saying Chabali shouldn’t be tried and sent to Jordan for fraud? All because you think the money shouldn’t of been used to buy weapons to at least defend the Iraqi people? Who says they’re limited to only us in buying their arms? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/7 "2005-01-23T00:48:07Z")
Chalabi\* ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/8 "2005-01-23T00:53:15Z")
Chalabi was _already_ tried by Jordan _in absentia_ and found guilty. If Iraq turns him over to Interpol, it’s the slammer for the architect of the US invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/9 "2005-01-23T00:55:12Z")
Guess that shows you - always get a receipt when you purchase an armored division. :smack: Looking forward to what tomorrow has to offer us. It is like some kind of bizarro-world Arab Channukah. Every day a new treat. 8 left, then queue “One Day More” from Les Mis. ---
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/10 "2005-01-23T01:02:11Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Chalabi was _already_ tried by Jordan _in absentia_ and found guilty. If Iraq turns him over to Interpol, it’s the slammer for the architect of the US invasion. Wonder what the political implications will be for the UIA, much less… er, whatsit… SCIRII or whatever. Americans must be advising them in making acronyms out of everything. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/11 "2005-01-23T02:15:51Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Wonder what the political implications will be for the UIA, much less… er, whatsit… SCIRII or whatever. Americans must be advising them in making acronyms out of everything. Chalabi being shipped to Jordan should have about as much impact on Iraq elections on Chalabi remaining in Iraq. Which is too say next to none. Like Allawi ( long the State Dept.'s favorite as opposed to Chalabi who was more of a Pentagon creature in his day ) he has never has much of a constituency outside of a handful of exiles. His current flirtations with the Sadrists and the UIA slate doesn’t seem to have changed that much. He certainly won’t have much impact on either the UIA ( which will dominate with or without Chalabi who was piggybacking ) or SCIRI who either way are likely to be the single biggest winner in the elections ( it will almost either be them or al Da’wa, anyway - the INC were always fringe players ). - Tamerlane ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/12 "2005-01-23T02:24:40Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > or SCIRI who either way are likely to be the single biggest winner in the elections ( it will almost either be them or al Da’wa, anyway - the INC were always fringe players ). Though I should note that neither ( or even both together ) will present a dominating majority even if every one of their candidates win - they simply aren’t running that many. THE UIA slate may achieve a majority as a whole, but that is a pretty disparate group. - Tamerlane ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/13 "2005-01-23T02:33:01Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Though I should note that neither ( or even both together ) will present a dominating majority even if every one of their candidates win - they simply aren’t running that many. > > THE UIA slate may achieve a majority as a whole, but that is a pretty disparate group. > > - Tamerlane what do you think will happen then, as its disparate? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/14 "2005-01-23T03:04:06Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Wonder what the political implications will be for the UIA, much less… er, whatsit… SCIRII or whatever. Americans must be advising them in making acronyms out of everything. It’s SCIRI, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Here – [http://www.rferl.org/specials/IraqCrisis/specials-politicalgroups.asp](http://www.rferl.org/specials/IraqCrisis/specials-politicalgroups.asp) – and here [http://www.rferl.org/specials/IraqCrisis/specials-politicalgroups2.asp](http://www.rferl.org/specials/IraqCrisis/specials-politicalgroups2.asp) – you can read brief descriptions of the political parties. It’s a long list and by no means complete. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-election-news-debate/286070/15 "2005-01-23T03:25:57Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > what do you think will happen then, as its disparate? Dunno, frankly. I think that is one of the biggest unknowns about this whole process is what will happen _after_ the election. I can easily see SCIRI ( and it’s Badr Organization spin-off ) and al Da’wa working together - they have ideological differences to be sure, but they are closer than not in many respects and don’t tend to shoot each other ( much ). But as to whether the whole Shi’a Islamist/Turcoman/tribal/token Sunni/token secularist slate can agree on a single direction for a permanent constitution, your guess is probably as good as mine. However it is pretty darn likely that this will have to be a coalition government anyway - it may be that the UIA pulls no more than, say, a third of the seats. While they are almost certain to do best, there really is no telling for sure how the vote will go. Any polling is probably a bit unreliable and there is such a enormous number of figures and slates running, with so little coherent media to distinguish them and so much chaos in general in Iraq, that the vote might be just as confused. - Tamerlane