# Iraqi rat-hole keeps getting deeper, and deeper - Any reasonable chance for victory? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 29, 2006, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652 "2006-09-29T20:19:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/1 "2006-09-29T20:19:03Z")
According to the [latest tome by Woodward](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/29/washington/29account.html?ei=5065&en=8896c1bd39c63ebf&ex=1160193600&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print) the Iraq mess is worse than anyone thought, and Henry Kissinger is now advising Bush that “victory is the only meaningful exit strategy”. > [@](#): > > [Henry Kissinger has been advising President Bush](http://www.abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory?id=2507870) and Vice President Cheney about Iraq, telling them that “victory is the only meaningful exit strategy,” author and journalist Bob Woodward said. Assuming Bush is taking this advice seriously, as seems to be the case, what counts as victory is Iraq in this point. Beating the insurgency? Being allowed to leave with our underwear? How do you fix a cluster fuck this entangled? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/2 "2006-09-29T20:41:47Z")
[QUOTE=astro] How do you fix a cluster fuck this entangled? [/QUOTE] Like Alexander, you just need a really big sword… Other than that, I got nothing. No idea how to untangle the mess we are in. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/3 "2006-09-29T20:59:50Z")
None. The only recourse we have at this point is brute force, and that can’t get us a victory we’d consider victory. We no longer have the ability to _persuade_ the Iraqis to do what we want ( if we ever did ), nor can we get anyone else to help; we’ve blown all our political and moral capital. And no, money won’t work either; if you try to bribe people who hate you, they’ll just take the money and do whatever they want. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/4 "2006-09-29T21:25:10Z")
How is this war a rat-hole? What war are you comparing this too and what time frame isn’t being met? ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/5 "2006-09-29T22:09:51Z")
[QUOTE=Magiver] How is this war a rat-hole? What war are you comparing this too and what time frame isn’t being met? [/QUOTE] [Rathole](http://dictionary.reference.com/search?r=2&q=rathole) > [@](#): > > 1. down the rathole, for a worthless purpose or purposes: seeing your inheritance disappear down the rathole. [Cost of Iraq war nearly 2 billion dollars a week](http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/09/28/cost_of_iraq_war_nearly_2b_a_week/) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON – A new congressional analysis shows the Iraq war is now costing taxpayers almost $2 billion a week – nearly twice as much as in the first year of the conflict three years ago and 20 percent more than last year – as the Pentagon spends more on establishing regional bases to support the extended deployment and scrambles to fix or replace equipment damaged in combat. > > The upsurge occurs as the total cost of military operations at home and abroad since 2001, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will top half a trillion dollars, according to an internal assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service completed last week. [What politicans (even democrats) thought a year ago](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/25/AR2005112500864.html) > [@](#): > > Time for An Iraq Timetable > > By Joseph R. Biden Jr. > > Saturday, November 26, 2005; Page A25 > > The question most Americans want answered about Iraq is this: When will our troops come home? > > We already know the likely answer. In 2006, they will begin to leave in large numbers. By the end of the year, we will have redeployed about 50,000. In 2007, a significant number of the remaining 100,000 will follow. A small force will stay behind – in Iraq or across the border – to strike at any concentration of terrorists How’s that plan look now that it’s Nov 2006? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/6 "2006-09-29T22:20:14Z")
Astro, Thanks for the dictionary cite. If you want to discuss it let me know otherwise this is destined for the PIT. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/7 "2006-09-29T22:23:20Z")
[QUOTE=astro] \*\*Iraqi rat-hole keeps getting deeper, and deeper - Any reasonable chance for victory? \*\* [/QUOTE] No [QUOTE=astro] Assuming Bush is taking this advice seriously, as seems to be the case, what counts as victory is Iraq in this point. Beating the insurgency? Being allowed to leave with our underwear? How do you fix a cluster fuck this entangled? [/QUOTE] I’m beginning to believe the Bush administration is planning to simply wait it out. When the insurgency and sectarian violence wanes, which it most certainly will considering there must approach a threshhold at some point when the number of people still alive who are willing to be “suiciders” begins to drop and the number of potential suicidees diminishes with every kill, the administration can then just claim victory. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Clam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3bc359/32.png) [@Happy\_Clam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Clam)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/8 "2006-09-30T00:45:15Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] No I’m beginning to believe the Bush administration is planning to simply wait it out. When the insurgency and sectarian violence wanes, which it most certainly will considering there must approach a threshhold at some point when the number of people still alive who are willing to be “suiciders” begins to drop and the number of potential suicidees diminishes with every kill, the administration can then just claim victory. [/QUOTE] Whether or not this is the current administration’s strategy, I don’t think there’s any evidence it will work, for two reasons: firstly, because many (most?) of those attacking coalition troops and Iraqi civillians are NOT “suiciders”- in fact, based purely on a personal impression garnered from reading the news, I would say that suicide attacks now seem less common than “execution”-style killings, which can be performed over and over again. The civil war is not being fought cheifly with suicide bombers, but with men who are increasingly, scarily, looking like trained professional soldiers, becoming more and more adept at killing people, both American and Iraqi. It also appears to be switching more from a direct insurgency against the US to small-scale acts of ethnic cleansing attempting to drive Sunni/Shia off Shia/Sunni “territory”, but that’s by the by. Secondly, it seems that the longer the US and others stay in Iraq, the more potential “suiciders” they create- not intentionally, surely, but as a result of their occupation and the steady stream of innocent Iraqis killed by (mostly) accident. For every person who blows themself up in a crowded marketplace, there is another- or perhaps two or three- who becomes willing to do so when their family is killed by American bombs, or at a checkpoint, or, for that matter, by a local militia dressed as police. There weren’t, AFAIK, any suicide bombers in Iraq prior to the invasion- please someone correct me if I’m wrong. Unless, of course, you meant that the Bush administration plans to wait until the demographics of Iraq will no longer support the kind of bloodshed going on at the moment. And that’s just cold. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/9 "2006-09-30T00:53:03Z")
Well, if we got the hell out of Baghdodge, the Shia would wipe out the Al Queda toot sweet. Victory! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/10 "2006-09-30T00:55:06Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] When the insurgency and sectarian violence wanes, which it most certainly will considering there must approach a threshhold at some point when the number of people still alive who are willing to be “suiciders” begins to drop and the number of potential suicidees diminishes with every kill, the administration can then just claim victory. [/QUOTE] That threshold may be surprisingly high. Iraq has a population of about 20 million. About half are under the age of 20. That means that every year about 250,000 young men enter the pool of possible suicide bombing recruits. I think there are currently about 10 suicide attacks per week or about 500 per year. The number of suicide attacks could increase ten-fold without making a significant demographic dent. ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/11 "2006-09-30T01:04:29Z")
I can’t even begin to answer the question. Can you first define “victory” for me? Here’s my problem: I’m told the “mission” was “accomplished”, hostilities “ended”, and now it appears we’re having some trouble winning the “peace”. I’ve got this thing called a “dictionary”, and what I read inside it isn’t squaring all that well with reality as it is. Maybe I just need a new one. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/12 "2006-09-30T01:13:19Z")
[Here’s Bush’s definition](http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html). Any similarity to reality is strictly coincidental. As we say around here, “How’s that workin’ out for ya?” ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/13 "2006-09-30T01:19:14Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] As we say around here, “How’s that workin’ out for ya?” [/QUOTE] On a totally unrelated subject (I don’t think the OP is answerable), I’ve started saying this in the on-line game I play (WoW) when my side does something really stupid. 🙂 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/14 "2006-09-30T01:29:18Z")
> [@](#): > > Victory in Iraq is Defined in Stages > • Short term, Iraq is making steady progress in fighting terrorists, meeting political milestones, > building democratic institutions, and standing up security forces. > • Medium term, Iraq is in the lead defeating terrorists and providing its own security, with a fully > constitutional government in place, and on its way to achieving its economic potential. > • Longer term, Iraq is peaceful, united, stable, and secure, well integrated into the international > community, and a full partner in the global war on terrorism. Well, that’s at least helpful in setting some benchmark for discussion. Let’s check out my dictionary, and see what it says about “progress”, “milestone”, “lead”, “defeat”, “security”, “peace”, “unite”, “stable”, “secure”, “integrate”, and we’ll finish up with “partner”. :dubious: … 😕 … :mad: … ☹ I’m going bowling. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/15 "2006-09-30T01:31:13Z")
[QUOTE=Happy Clam] Unless, of course, you meant that the Bush administration plans to wait until the demographics of Iraq will no longer support the kind of bloodshed going on at the moment. And that’s just cold. [/QUOTE] Yes, this is what I mean. What else has Bush got at this point? He’s already said we’re not leaving. He’s commited. There’s nothing we can do IMO to actually “win” this war, so my feeling is the only choice he’s given himself is to wait it out. Cold? yes. . .like every other compassionate conservative and amazingly well-planned decision Bush has made. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/16 "2006-09-30T01:35:32Z")
[QUOTE=Loopydude] I’ve got this thing called a “dictionary”, and what I read inside it isn’t squaring all that well with reality as it is. Maybe I just need a new one. [/QUOTE] [Here you go.](http://www.newspeakdictionary.com/ns-dict.html) ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/17 "2006-09-30T01:42:18Z")
[QUOTE=Pochacco] That threshold may be surprisingly high. Iraq has a population of about 20 million. About half are under the age of 20. That means that every year about 250,000 young men enter the pool of possible suicide bombing recruits. I think there are currently about 10 suicide attacks per week or about 500 per year. The number of suicide attacks could increase ten-fold without making a significant demographic dent. [/QUOTE] I didn’t say it was logical. I said that’s what I’m beginning to believe Bush has up his sleeve. The guy must be desperate. How else can you explain pulling Henry ‘Vietnam’ Kissinger out of the moth balls? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/18 "2006-09-30T01:44:28Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] On a totally unrelated subject (I don’t think the OP is answerable), I’ve started saying this in the on-line game I play (WoW) when my side does something really stupid. [/QUOTE] OK, I guess, for those who can’t deal with Civ III… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/19 "2006-09-30T01:48:56Z")
The Bushiviks have no other acceptable option. You got basicly: defeat, rout, humiliating defeat, and hang on grimly hoping that, by some miracle, it just _happens_! Shia and Sunni gather together to sing _Kumbayallah_, Starbucks begin to open up all over Baghdad, the Kurds offer an additional 10% of their oil revenue just to be nice…stuff like that. ---
**Author:** ![Rufus\_Xavier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/eada6e/32.png) [@Rufus\_Xavier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rufus_Xavier)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2006, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652/20 "2006-09-30T01:54:19Z")
I don’t understand the assumption that if we stay, eventually we will “win,” any more than I understand the assumption that if we leave we will “lose.” Here’ some stuff from the strategy document linked above, under the fanciful heading “Failure Is Not An Option:” > [@](#): > > Iraq would become a safe haven from which terrorists could plan attacks against America, American interests abroad, and our allies. Where is the proof of this statement? Also, if Iraq is not now a safe haven for terrorists, what the hell are they doing there? > [@](#): > > Middle East reformers would never again fully trust American assurances of support for democracy and human rights in the region – a historic opportunity lost. We’ve given them no reason to trust us, anyway. Our record in supporting democracy and human rights in the region is spotty, to put it kindly. > [@](#): > > The resultant tribal and sectarian chaos would have major consequences for American security and interests in the region. We’ve not been able to put a noticeable dent in the existing tribal and sectarian chaos; if anything, by aiding and abetting Shiite death squads, we’ve fanned the flames. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqi-rat-hole-keeps-getting-deeper-and-deeper-any-reasonable-chance-for-victory/374652.md?page=2)