The diplomacy has not yet entirely failed. From the beginning, this was orchestrated mostly as an excercise in power and domination. The Bushistas established that from the git-go, by Bush’s frequent and unchanging insistence that America was prepared to act unilaterally.
No one wants to piss off the Big Dog if they can find another way. If war is already certain, there is no good reason to vote against the US. Having bluffed out and intimidated the Democrats, they decided to bluff out the UN. All that was at stake was the chance to drape the UN’s legitimacy over actions already decided upon. Realpolitik wise, going for R 1441 was a dumb move. Bismarck wouldn’t have done it, neither would Kissinger. In a way, it worked too well.
Tne UN was flummoxed and paniced. They went with R 1441 to forestall an immediate attack, when it was perfectly clear that the troops were not in position. Even Syria voted for it, for the explained and declared reason that they were hoping that by involving the UN and, more importantly, adding weight to the UN’s authority, perhaps a way out could be found.
Meanwhile, America goes through the motions, while moving its troops into position. And the same principle still applies: there is no percentage whatsoever in voting against America for a country like Guinea or Angola. They vote no, America goes anyway. They vote yes, France vetoes (maybe) and America goes to war. Or not. No skin off thier nose either way, the only possible losing vote is no. A vote they cannot afford.
They will get enough votes to suffice for thier purposes, my guess is 8. Might even get the whole 9, woudn’t be surprised. The groundwork is already laid with the American public, those nasty Frenchies, stubborn, anti-American, intransigent Frenchies. Only reason we don’t have total UN approval is them. Close enough.
So, no, the diplomacy, as such, has not failed. They stand a very good chance of getting thier vote, or of coming close enough to shrug it off. It never made any real difference anyway.
The failure lies not in the diplomacy. The failure lies in choosing domination over cooperation. “If we are humble, but strong, they will respect us.” I wish he had been listening, rather than talking.
It will be entirely impossible to conduct this war entirely without civilian casualties. I am sure our soldiers are professional and humane, they will do what they can, but it is simply not possible.
Video clips of Iraqi widows and orphans will be streaming into the TV set of every Muslim household in the world. That is all they will remember. All of us saw the endless loop of the planes crashing on that terrible day. So we know how they will feel. And we know who they will blame.
No doubt ridding the world of Saddam is a good thing. But is it a good enough thing? Would you take a 10 to 1 chance on having your 'nads crushed with pliers if the prize was a toaster?
Oh, and the lying. Shouldn’t have done that. You don’t lie when you’re right, the truth is complicated enough.