# Iraq's chosen a president and PM. Will it matter? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 6, 2005, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097 "2005-04-06T21:15:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2005, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/1 "2005-04-06T21:15:46Z")
[Let’s just say there’s some other pieces of that deal that aren’t so good.](http://www.nysun.com/article/11731) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON - The Kurdish militia known as peshmerga will remain intact under an agreement between the major political parties, clearing the way for the national assembly to form the country’s first government elected solely by the Iraqi people. > > Under the terms of the agreement, the approximately 50,000-man peshmerga will be funded and trained by Iraq’s military, but the Kurdish forces will be based in the three Kurdish provinces in northern Iraq. The future prime minister will not be able to command any peshmerga units to leave those areas without consent from the Kurdish regional authorities. > > A similar arrangement was struck regarding the status of militias loyal to the two major Shiite parties, the Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Both parties will dominate the local and provincial governments in the majority Shiite areas of southern Iraq. > > A detailed written agreement outlining the understanding on militias and other matters will likely be released in the coming days. So much for the central government’s official monopoly on violence. The Kurds and Shi’ites both have their militias, and the Sunnis have a full-blown insurgency. They’ve got everything they need to run a civil war with. [But wait, it gets worse](http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/11318266.htm): > [@](#): > > By Tom Lasseter > > Knight Ridder Newspapers > > BAGHDAD, Iraq - The rumors spread quickly last month around the central Baghdad neighborhood of Sab’ah Nisan that Salem Khudair’s nephew had insulted the name of Imam Hussein, one of the most important historical figures in the Shiite branch of Islam. It fell to Khudair, the eldest son of a family from the Sunni branch, to meet with local Shiites and explain that his 26-year-old nephew had said no such thing. > > A day later Khudair’s family received a note insulting them as Sunni Muslims, calling them sons of whores. On March 27, Khudair was kidnapped. > > What came next has become typical for Iraq as sectarian tension and violence rise. Khudair’s family formed an armed group of more than 20 relatives and neighbors who demanded Khudair’s release and vowed to kill those responsible. “If something happened to my brother, no Shiite would be safe,” Khudair’s brother, Sameer, said at the time, convinced that Shiite militia members were behind the kidnapping. > > Khudair’s body was found on Saturday, dumped in the street. He’d been shot in the face, and there was evidence of torture. At the family home later that day, Sameer Khudair said there would be no funeral celebration until his brother’s death was avenged. Young men stood on the rooftop with AK-47s, and others stuffed their guns into bags. > > The political instability in Iraq and the ethnic divides behind it are pushing Iraqis toward gang-like violence that many worry could start a slide toward civil war. > > For decades, Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s former dictator from the Sunni minority, ruled the nation harshly, sometimes brutally suppressing the majority Shiite population. In January, Shiite leaders swept Iraq’s national assembly election. > > The recent unrest, though, rather than coming from the top leadership of political and religious parties, is springing largely from the grass-roots of Iraqi society. It involves neighborhood-based forces, with Sunnis and Shiites seeking to protect themselves from each other or to exact revenge, and it chips away at Iraq’s national unity. In a three-way civil war, places like Baghdad and Kirkuk would turn into bloody messes, but there would be havens of relative safety in the north, south, and west. But if the fighting takes place at the neighborhood level, it would be much worse than that. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2005, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/2 "2005-04-06T21:36:00Z")
In this BBQ Pit thread – [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310495](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310495) – I call for a wider range of smileys in this board, including the following" > [@](#): > > **Nervous-grin smiley:** Conveying the idea, "Well, at least total hell hasn’t broken loose **yet!"** or similar sentiments. Crooked, awkward smile, eyes rolled up, smiley surrounded by flying beads of sweat. And this is exactly the kind of situation I would want to use it for. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/3 "2005-04-07T02:06:52Z")
> [@](#): > > So much for the central government’s official monopoly on violence. The Kurds and Shi’ites both have their militias, and the Sunnis have a full-blown insurgency. They’ve got everything they need to run a civil war with. I wish they’d disband the Sadr Militias. After they beat up students, freedom’s going to get very ugly in that part of town. Why are they allowing militias to operate? I mean the Peshmerga have legitimate reasons, but the other militias are little more than religious police. They should be disbanned. Expect to see refugees from the Shia and Sunni communities flood to secular Northern Iraq. I’m really dissapointed. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/4 "2005-04-07T03:42:22Z")
However on thinking, I see this as a stop gap measure to fill the holes in security, and since militias are always ideologically more motivated than a monolithic police force, maybe this is why they’ve been chosen to remain. The three main parties I hate in Iraq are; Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution In Iraq The Sadr movement Dawa party What is also confusing is why doesn’t any of the populace have any backbone in confronting these thugs? Why don’t we arm them, support them or do something? \ Could we have let the Islamist parties come to power in order to discredit their policies and diminish their influence for the long term? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/5 "2005-04-07T04:35:56Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > What is also confusing is why doesn’t any of the populace have any backbone in confronting these thugs? Perhaps because a significant part of the populace supports them, and the rest are all too aware that “confronting” them would lead to exactly the kind of neighborhood-level civil war the OP fears. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/6 "2005-04-07T17:27:37Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I wish they’d disband the Sadr Militias. After they beat up students, freedom’s going to get very ugly in that part of town. > > Why are they allowing militias to operate? I mean the Peshmerga have legitimate reasons, but the other militias are little more than religious police. They should be disbanned. They can’t exactly allow the Kurds to keep their militia, while making the Shi’ites disband theirs. Especially when the Shi’ites, who’ve been out of power forever despite their majority status, are worried about being gamed out of a leading role yet again. Not to mention, there’s still a Sunni insurgency that attacks Shi’ites, and the Shi’ites probably don’t have much faith in the security forces we’ve trained. They’re not going to unilaterally disarm against the Sunnis, either. > [@](#): > > Expect to see refugees from the Shia and Sunni communities flood to secular Northern Iraq. Won’t happen. And I notice that the three main parties you hate in Iraq constitute a majority of the Shi’ites, who in turn are a majority of Iraqis. You may hate 'em, but the price of supporting democracy in places where you probably don’t like _most_ of the players, is that you’re probably not going to like the winner, regardless of who it is. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/7 "2005-04-07T20:18:14Z")
> [@](#): > > And I notice that the three main parties you hate in Iraq constitute a majority of the Shi’ites, who in turn are a majority of Iraqis. You may hate 'em, but the price of supporting democracy in places where you probably don’t like most of the players, is that you’re probably not going to like the winner, regardless of who it is. I know, but my dissatisfaction with the main Islamist parties is because they have tenous links to Iran, and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim who allegedly promised 100 billion dollars to Iran in the form of the reparations. Anyway, lets just hope the people of Iraq will be able to vote people like him out of office in the years to come. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/8 "2005-04-07T20:33:51Z")
Anyone betting that a tenuous peace will eventually be cobbled together, which’ll hold for a generation or so, then erupt in full-blown Yugoslavian-style ethnic cleansing? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/9 "2005-04-07T21:18:11Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I know, but my dissatisfaction with the main Islamist parties is because they have tenous links to Iran, What do you expect? Iraq has a Shi’ite majority, but most Arab countries are Sunni-dominated. And (non-Arab) Iran is overwhelmingly Shi’ite. It goes without saying that they’re going to have links with Iran. Once again, to be bothered by this is to be bothered by Iraqi democracy. > [@](#): > > and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim who allegedly promised 100 billion dollars to Iran in the form of the reparations. Meaningless promise; Iraq’s a basket case that will be receiving aid, not giving it, for some time. > [@](#): > > Anyway, lets just hope the people of Iraq will be able to vote people like him out of office in the years to come. Well, JFTR, here’s the PM-Pres-VP slate: Prime Minister: Ibrahim Jafari (Shi’ite) President: Jalal Talabani (Kurd) Veeps (2): Adel Abdul Mahdi (Shiite), Ghazi Yawar (Sunni, sort of) I don’t know if Hakim has some lesser office in the new government. But if we’re giving them democracy, we have to accept their choices. If you weren’t ready to deal with that (even if it involved some holding of one’s nose), you shouldn’t have supported this invasion to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/10 "2005-04-07T21:21:03Z")
> [@Bryan Ekers](#): > > Anyone betting that a tenuous peace will eventually be cobbled together, which’ll hold for a generation or so, then erupt in full-blown Yugoslavian-style ethnic cleansing? I would be impressed if any cobbled-together peace lasts six months, once our troop strength there is down under 20,000 or so. And that will happen eventually. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/11 "2005-04-07T21:30:08Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I know, but my dissatisfaction with the main Islamist parties is because they have tenous links to Iran The PKU, one of the major kurdish parties that currently make up the kurdish umbrella party, also had major ties to Iran. Since I imagine that Iran has supported just about any anti-saddam faction in Iraq over the years and that the anti-saddam factions now make up the leaders of the Kurdish and Shia political parties, that you would be hard pressed to find a political party from these ethnic groups that didn’t have Iranian ties. Also, there is a fairly strong arguement that Iraq, as the belligerant at the beginning of the Iran/Iraq war (and the user of illegal chemical weapons during that conflict) does in fact owe Iran reparations. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2005, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/12 "2005-04-07T23:26:21Z")
> [@](#): > > you shouldn’t have supported this invasion to begin with. I didn’t, however, I do believe the first step to creating any decent central government which is representative, also has to respect the fact that only the government has a monopoly on violence, militias should be banned. > [@](#): > > The PKU PUK > [@](#): > > Also, there is a fairly strong arguement that Iraq, as the belligerant at the beginning of the Iran/Iraq war (and the user of illegal chemical weapons during that conflict) does in fact owe Iran reparations. Both sides used Chemical weapons. > [@](#): > > I would be impressed if any cobbled-together peace lasts six months, once our troop strength there is down under 20,000 or so. And that will happen eventually I don’t believe that will happen, if there was going to be any ethnic or religious civil war, I don’t think American troops would be able to stop fighting between them no matter how big their numbers were. With an attitude like that, of course it would happen, its called a self fullfilling prophecy. > [@](#): > > What do you expect? Iraq has a Shi’ite majority, but most Arab countries are Sunni-dominated. And (non-Arab) Iran is overwhelmingly Shi’ite. It goes without saying that they’re going to have links with Iran. Once again, to be bothered by this is to be bothered by Iraqi democracy. If a tradition of voting out the people who were voted in, then I expect we’d of succeeded. Yugoslavian example is a bit tarnished for the fact that a communist dictatorship kept them together, and they broke up after the order broke down, however in Iraq, numerous Shiites and Sunnis see breaking the state apart as unnecessary and would undoubtedly make things worse. [Iraqis don’t want to see country broken up](http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/GoodMorningAmerica/Iraq_anniversary_poll_040314.html?INTERNATIONALad=true) > [@](#): > > Politically, the survey finds that Iraqis overwhelmingly want their nation to remain united and centralized — 79 percent say so, compared with 14 percent who prefer a federated group of regional states, and 4 percent who want the country broken into separate nations. Among Iraqi Kurds, federated regional states — but not fully independent ones — are preferred. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2005, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/13 "2005-04-08T00:41:15Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I didn’t, I didn’t realize that. My apologies for having misrepresnted where you were coming from. > [@](#): > > however, I do believe the first step to creating any decent central government which is representative, also has to respect the fact that only the government has a monopoly on violence, militias should be banned. Our best shot to do that was in the immediate aftermath of the war. We didn’t have the will to do it then, when Iraq was still a much safer place than it is now. If it came to discussions now, the Kurds would probably ask, “If we disband the pershmerga, who’s going to keep the insurgents from attacking here, too?” And how do you argue with that? > [@](#): > > I don’t believe that will happen, if there was going to be any ethnic or religious civil war, I don’t think American troops would be able to stop fighting between them no matter how big their numbers were. We part ways there, then. I believe that if the U.S. had stuck to their original timetable (down to 30K troops by 9/03), Iraq would already be in the middle of a full-fledged civil war. It’s harder for them to start such a conflict openly with us around, but if it started without us there in strength, we’d have a damned hard time coming back in and separating the warring parties. > [@](#): > > With an attitude like that, of course it would happen, its called a self fullfilling prophecy. Whoa! You grossly overestimate the power of my predictions to influence events. World leaders aren’t exactly hanging on my every word. > [@](#): > > If a tradition of voting out the people who were voted in, then I expect we’d of succeeded. I’m afraid I don’t catch your meaning here. > [@](#): > > Yugoslavian example is a bit tarnished for the fact that a communist dictatorship kept them together, and they broke up after the order broke down, however in Iraq, numerous Shiites and Sunnis see breaking the state apart as unnecessary and would undoubtedly make things worse. > > [Iraqis don’t want to see country broken up](http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/GoodMorningAmerica/Iraq_anniversary_poll_040314.html?INTERNATIONALad=true) OK, but the problem is, do they want the _same thing_? Sure, they both want Iraq to stay united, but suppose the question were: would you want Iraq to stay united, _if the other guys were in charge?_ Think the numbers would still come out the same? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2005, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/14 "2005-04-08T02:02:31Z")
> [@](#): > > I’m afraid I don’t catch your meaning here. Well if Islamists can show they can respect the tradition of being the loyal opposition, then I expect it to be less volatile. > [@](#): > > OK, but the problem is, do they want the same thing? Sure, they both want Iraq to stay united, but suppose the question were: would you want Iraq to stay united, if the other guys were in charge? Think the numbers would still come out the same? I don’t think it would be too much of a problem if any other guy was in charge, just as long as they respected the minorities rights, and let minorities have at least part of the obligation to run the government, hence the reason why theres a Kurd as president now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2005, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraqs-chosen-a-president-and-pm-will-it-matter/298097/15 "2005-04-08T16:26:56Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Well if Islamists can show they can respect the tradition of being the loyal opposition, then I expect it to be less volatile. True, but are Iraqis like that? To paraphrase Rummy, we invaded the Iraq we had, not the one we would have liked. > [@](#): > > I don’t think it would be too much of a problem if any other guy was in charge, just as long as they respected the minorities rights, and let minorities have at least part of the obligation to run the government, hence the reason why theres a Kurd as president now. The presidency is regarded as a ceremonial post, with visibility but no real power. But it’s not a matter of what _you_ think; I was asking about what _they_ would think.