# Ireland to have referendum on EU Fiscal Stability Treaty. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 28, 2012, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265 "2012-02-28T17:17:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ruadh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@ruadh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ruadh)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2012, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/21 "2012-03-03T07:02:50Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > As mentioned, it doesn’t matter whether Ireland votes yes or no in the referendum, as all that is required for the new treaty is a qualified majority, and not unanimity. It doesn’t even need a qualified majority. It just needs 12 states (out of 27). ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2012, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/22 "2012-03-03T19:43:28Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Germany is more likely to stay in any Euro single currency with the likes of Greece and Italy outside of it. The new currency would be a hell of a lot stabler for a start, what with Southern European countries not threatening to bring the whole thing down, and Germany would not be expected to bail out same said members to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euro. Germany would rapidly face an economic crash in this case. The Euro’s price is being lowered by southern Europe, leading to German export’s being wildly undervalued, hence much more popular, hence the decade-long economic boom in germany (and it’s more or less entirely due to the impact of that export advantage). If Southern Europe bails, Germany loses that edge and suddenly becomes a hell of a lot poorer. > [@](#): > > I expect there would be a much bigger push to form a closer currency union if only the likes of Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, etc. were involved, instead of the fear of Eurobonds being a back door for Germany to pick up yet more Southern European spending like we currently see. Why would they want? They don’t gain much from a regional political union, and frankly, show no sign of particularly wanting one. Austrians are quite happy not being inside Germany, and the Dutch and Danish don’t want to be dominated by Berlin either. That’s kind of been the tension in the EU all along. > [@](#): > > As for the final sentence quoted. How the hell do you jump from the likes of Greece leaving with Euro to Germany leaving the EU? It’s just not going to happen. If Greece leaves the Euro (it wouldn’t have to leave the full EU, though it might), there’s every chance that the currency will disintegrate anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/23 "2012-03-05T13:46:05Z")
> [@smiling bandit](#): > > Germany would rapidly face an economic crash in this case. The Euro’s price is being lowered by southern Europe, leading to German export’s being wildly undervalued, hence much more popular, hence the decade-long economic boom in germany (and it’s more or less entirely due to the impact of that export advantage). If Southern Europe bails, Germany loses that edge and suddenly becomes a hell of a lot poorer. The decade long boom in Germany is down to a whole host of things, not least the fact that German wages have been [held constant](http://media.lclark.edu/content/hart-landsberg/files/2012/02/european-wages-1.jpg) over the last thirteen years by unions and government working together in concert to improve Germany’s competitiveness, a period of liberalization following Germany’s own stint as the “sick man of Europe” about 15 years ago, the aftereffects of unification still being felt in lowering average wages, etc. Germany has always been a massive exporter, even with the DMark, and German GDP growth has [pretty accurately tracked British GDP growth](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GDP_per_capita_big_four_Western_Europe.PNG) since the Euro was instituted, despite Britain being outside of the currency bloc. > [@smiling bandit](#): > > If Greece leaves the Euro (it wouldn’t have to leave the full EU, though it might), there’s every chance that the currency will disintegrate anyway. Every chance? Rubbish. There’s way too much political capital invested in the Euro project across the entire Eurozone. There’s simply no feasible way to dismantle the Euro in full. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/24 "2012-03-05T15:27:33Z")
Much like the US “trade dollar” in 1900’s China? The euro would be used for external trade only-each eurozone country would revert to its own currency. Much like what the UK, Sweden, Denmark do today. Then the Greeks could go on their merry way toward bankruptcy (and reorganization). It would solve a lot of problems. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/25 "2012-03-06T00:17:59Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > The decade long boom in Germany is down to a whole host of things Exports make up something like 30% of Germany’s GDp now ,and that will change drastically and fast, if the Eurozone starts to fall apart. > [@](#): > > Every chance? Rubbish. There’s way too much political capital invested in the Euro project across the entire Eurozone. There’s simply no feasible way to dismantle the Euro in full. Similar statements have been said about a lot of political programs, until people bit the bullet. The Euro, as it stands, is essentially going to permanently turn Southern Europe into an economic dependency. I see no evidence that situation can change as long as the Euro stays around. Since things as they are cannot go on forever - they won’t. The Euro is a human construct. It can, and eventually will, cease to exist. It will simply happen sooner rather than later. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/26 "2012-03-06T00:22:16Z")
No doubt Ireland will be told to keep on holding votes until it gives the right result, and then stop. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/27 "2012-03-06T00:42:49Z")
The Taoiseach has said the forthcoming referendum on the fiscal compact [will be a “once-off” event, no matter which way the Irish people vote](http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0305/referendum.html). We’ll see about that. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/28 "2012-03-06T11:56:00Z")
> [@Sandwich](#): > > all 26\* > > - you heard me I heard, but I believe you’re mistaken. ---
**Author:** ![ruadh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@ruadh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ruadh)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2012, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265/29 "2012-03-08T08:36:11Z")
Here’s an interesting piece, it seems that Labour in the European Parliament [opposed most of the provisions of the Fiscal Treaty](http://www.irishleftreview.org/2012/03/07/labour-austerity-treaty/) which Labour in the Irish Government is now pushing for. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ireland-to-have-referendum-on-eu-fiscal-stability-treaty/614265.md?page=1)