# Is another Sino-Japanese war a matter of 'when', not 'if'? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 25, 2013, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725 "2013-11-25T03:19:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2013, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/21 "2013-11-26T23:02:53Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Yup, that’s tin foil hat time. > > The US and Japan will not start a war with a nuclear armed nation over a islets in order to gain control over REE. With all due respect, it’s patently obvious for anyone who’s informed beyond a Fox News level regarding the enmity between the nations that this is not and _would_ not be over those pismire “islets”. The rocks are merely a convenient (albeit, manifestly irrational) proxy. The resources said to lay beneath them, although a far greater prize, would still not be enough of a catalyst for armed conflict. If it were all about these islets, why only start the posturing over them in recent times? **A.** China have always wanted to take Japan to task and this bent has only been deferred because of the former’s preoccupation with economic ascension. Now that China have reached a level where their economic diorama is starting to show a few cracks, these underlying historical issues are being pushed to the fore. If China could dominate Japan - one of U.S.'s biggest Asian allies - it could send a message that a new superpower is moving in. Hence my assertion that if “civil unrest” were to rear its head on the mainland (some 700 protest per diem, at last check), it only follows that China would use the lingering ‘Japan issues’ to divert attention away from their own governments’ shortcomings. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2013, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/22 "2013-11-26T23:10:04Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > They wouldn’t have to seize them, because as far as I am aware, Japan does not have a permanent military presence on the islands, they just send patrol boats from time to time. China’s style would be for their fishing boats to just gradually encroach more and more in the area, then one day Japan finds a few Chinese fishermen have built a shack on one of the islands and they dare the Japanese coast guard to remove them. > > They’ve been using similar tactics to grab reefs and islets in the Spratlys from the Philippines and so far they’ve got away with it. Last month the New York TImes Magazine did [this excellent long article](http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/)on the Spratlys. With a super final line: > [@](#): > > The scholar Huang Jing put it another, more organic way. “The Chinese expand like a forest, very slowly,” he said. “But once they get there, they never leave.” ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/23 "2013-11-27T02:24:13Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > (Highjack, but… What the heck are these symbols in the pronunciation guide? “kɒˈdɒlədʒɪ” ??? These aren’t the pronunciation symbols I’m used to!) > **[Phonemic Chart | Learn English](https://www.englishclub.com/pronunciation/phonemic-chart.php)** > > This phonemic chart contains all 44 sounds used in spoken British English (Received Pronunciation). Pronunciation for learners of English. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/24 "2013-11-27T03:09:02Z")
update: > [@](#): > > _ **THREE days ago china declared a no-fly zone over waters claimed by japan. Yesterday, the us flew bombers over them. Today, China has sent in an aircraft carrier. Are these the drums of war on our doorstep?** _ [MSN AU](http://www.news.com.au/world/united-states-responds-to-chinese-air-identification-zone-over-japanese-claimed-islands-by-sending-b-52-bombers/story-fndir2ev-1226769154950) U.S. - “a unilateral action that raises tensions in the region” Japan - “we will not cede to these dangerous actions” (\*paraphrased) ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/25 "2013-11-27T14:53:56Z")
> [@iLemming](#): > > With all due respect, it’s patently obvious for anyone who’s informed beyond a Fox News level regarding the enmity between the nations that this is not and _would_ not be over those pismire “islets”. The rocks are merely a convenient (albeit, manifestly irrational) proxy. The resources said to lay beneath them, although a far greater prize, would still not be enough of a catalyst for armed conflict. If it were all about these islets, why only start the posturing over them in recent times? > > **A.** China have always wanted to take Japan to task and this bent has only been deferred because of the former’s preoccupation with economic ascension. Now that China have reached a level where their economic diorama is starting to show a few cracks, these underlying historical issues are being pushed to the fore. If China could dominate Japan - one of U.S.'s biggest Asian allies - it could send a message that a new superpower is moving in. > > Hence my assertion that if “civil unrest” were to rear its head on the mainland (some 700 protest per diem, at last check), it only follows that China would use the lingering ‘Japan issues’ to divert attention away from their own governments’ shortcomings. One cannot say “with all due respect” and accuse someone of being a Fox viewer in the same sentence. Own your insults if you are going to use them. You are claiming that there may be more to gain by going to war and say that US could somehow wind up controlling the rare earth resources in China. That is such an absurd position it’s basically not worth responding to. Of course, the islets are more important than the rocks for the mineral, oil and fishing rights and as a point of pride and power for the Chinese. But, to suggest that the US and Japan would wage war to gain control over natural resources in China is ludicrous. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/26 "2013-11-27T17:21:42Z")
It isn’t like China is the only place in the world where rare earth elements can be mined. It just happens to be the main supplier currently because nobody has seen a way to make a profit setting up REE mining operations elsewhere. REE aren’t actually rare, they’re just hard to refine. So dumping a lot of money in a brand new operation in a new place doesn’t seem like a very good investment unless you’re scared that China is suddenly going to close production on short notice during a crisis. But the thing is, China depends on keeping the factories running. If the proletarians don’t have jobs then there will be civil unrest the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Cultural Revolution. China can’t suddenly cut of trade to punish Japan, or the United States any more than you can stop going to work to punish your boss. No work, no paycheck, no paycheck and you’re living in a van down by the river. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/27 "2013-11-27T21:51:50Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > One cannot say “with all due respect” and accuse someone of being a Fox viewer in the same sentence. Own your insults if you are going to use them. Okay. Okay… Excuse my wry sense of humour. But, by the same token, there’s not need to bring poor, _old_ Rupert into this. He’s just gone through a divorce and he and his best bummy, Tony Blair, aren’t talking. We should tread carefully… 😃 > [@](#): > > You are claiming that there may be more to gain by going to war and say that US could somehow wind up controlling the rare earth resources in China. That is such an absurd position it’s basically not worth responding to. No claim; merely ruminating through text. The inalienable fact of life on this planet is that it’s all about the resources. China are the world’s most populous nation, with a touted 450 million bourgeois about to hit their High Street. [They’ve even removed many of the One Child Policy restrictions in recent times](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24957303). It’s a nation with a ravenous appetite for all things consumable, the likes of which the world has never seen. I think it’s folly to simply dismiss the notion that the players in this game do not have one eye on what could be gained with respect to earthly commodities. ## I’m not proposing the U.S. _want_ war so as to leverage more of China’s REE near monopoly. But, the neodymium magnets that are required to make smart bombs work are produced using REE ― **fact**. Just sayin’… > [@Lemur866](#): > > China depends on keeping the factories running. If the proletarians don’t have jobs then there will be civil unrest the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Cultural Revolution. Naturally. But, what complicates it is that no one really knows for sure what the Chinese government are thinking (beyond the indubitable, fundamental communist goal of remaining in power, at any cost). Perhaps the Chinese fear the stirrings within their populace and feel it’s better to place the nation on an ‘us versus them’ footing to elicit nationalistic fervour. Perhaps they believe that the world community is so economically entwined with the nation that most will have no choice but to support China’s regional assertiveness. [They’ve already admonished the Australia foreign minister for siding with the U.S. / Japanese](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-27/china-rejects-australian-criticism-of-new-air-zone/5120920) stance on this new “provocative action”. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2013, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/28 "2013-11-27T22:45:10Z")
> [@iLemming](#): > > * * * > > Naturally. But, what complicates it is that no one really knows for sure what the Chinese government are thinking (beyond the indubitable, fundamental communist goal of remaining in power, at any cost). Inscrutable. :dubious: > [@iLemming](#): > > Perhaps the Chinese fear the stirrings within their populace and feel it’s better to place the nation on an ‘us versus them’ footing to elicit nationalistic fervour. Perhaps they believe that the world community is so economically entwined with the nation that most will have no choice but to support China’s regional assertiveness. Good points. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2013, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/29 "2013-11-28T08:15:51Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Inscrutable. :dubious: Sweet, sweet adjectives… \<3 > [@](#): > > Good points. [“China urges Australia to correct its mistake immediately to prevent damaging Sino-Australia relations.”](http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-stands-firm-on-remarks-despite-chinese-fury-20131127-2ya2q.html) When they’ve got you by the balls, all that’s required is a little squeeze here and some torsion there bring you around to their way of thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2013, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/30 "2013-11-28T16:29:19Z")
Within the last year I read somewhere that the main source of rare earths used to be the US. But it wasn’t terribly profitable and China bought entire refineries, lock, stock, and barrel from US manufacturers and shipped them to China. And now they have a near monopoly. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/31 "2013-11-29T02:22:08Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Within the last year I read somewhere that the main source of rare earths used to be the US. But it wasn’t terribly profitable and China bought entire refineries, lock, stock, and barrel from US manufacturers and shipped them to China. And now they have a near monopoly. Kinda. REE mining entails a waste product some might be familiar with, called ‘ **uranium** ’. This has a considerable bearing on how and where it is mined and what’s done with the waste. The Australian company, Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX: LYC) recently acquired a temporary license to process the waste from its Mount Weld Lynas mine - apparently the second largest know deposit of REE outside of China (who themselves have around 30% of the world’s deposits) - in Malaysia; but not before _much_ opposition from locals due to the concerns with radioactive contamination. In other words, the reason the U.S. (Moly Corp… if memory serves) got rid of their mines was because of the inherent expense associated with the disposal of said by-product of REE processing in First World, environmentally conscious and _litigious_ nations ― constraints the environment pillaging, human rights apathetic, manpower rich China don’t necessarily have. That, and because at the time, the irreplaceable nature of rare earth elements in today’s technology was not appreciated. Seems there’s something to be said for foresight: ‘_ **The Middle East has oil and China has rare earth.** _’ -Deng Xiaoping (1992) Here’s a paper I found on the subject matter from Congress: [_Rare Earth Elements in National Defense: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress_](http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R41744.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725/32 "2013-11-29T02:42:48Z")
UPDATE: [Japan, South Korea defy China air defence zone](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-28/japan-south-korea-defy-china-air-zone/5123994) [China sends planes as Japan, SKorea defy new defence zone](http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-sends-planes-as-japan-skorea-defy-new-defence-zone-20131129-2yeru.html) Simmering nicely. :rolleyes: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-another-sino-japanese-war-a-matter-of-when-not-if/674725.md?page=1)