# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/243 "2020-01-29T19:01:13Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Anyway, we shouldn’t be calling this one Coronavirus, since that’s the name of a family of viruses. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late to change that now. Way too many news reports are using that name. The name 2019-nCoV is what the specialists are calling it, but that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. It’s probably best to call it Wuhan virus. I vote for [Corona-chan.](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/corona-chan) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/244 "2020-01-29T19:37:45Z")
Awwww aren’t you cute, spreading a 4chan meme like that! ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/245 "2020-01-29T22:41:58Z")
> [@Charlie\_Wayne](#): > > I saw an article yesterday that referred to it as the Coronavirus and said it was the same virus as SARS from several years ago. > > Is that possibly true? I didn’t understand how it could be a new virus if it really is the same one responsible for the SARS outbreak several years ago. No, Charlie, it is not the same virus. Viruses come in “families”. There’s the influenza family (cause flu), the rhinovirus family (cause upper respiratory infrections), and many others. One of the virus families is [“Coronavirus”.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus) SARS and this new virus are from the same _family_, but they are not the same exact virus. The virus that causes the disease _severe acute respiratory syndrome_ or SARS is named SARS-CoV The related virus that causes the disease _middle east respiratory syndrome_ or MERS is named MERS-CoV This new virus is named 2019-nCoV. It shares 70% of its genetic information with SARS-CoV, but the remaining 30% is different. It’s not the same virus. Either someone published/broadcast misinformation (which is possible) or you misheard the information (which is also possible). Among other things, this new virus has (based on current information) a death rate of 2.5-3% but SARS-CoV has a death rate around 10%. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/246 "2020-01-29T22:47:50Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > This. 8800 died in the US this year alone from the normal flu. Why should we be worried when only 131 people have died world-wide? Because, apparently, people infected with this virus can spread it before symptoms show, it’s fairly contagious, and it has a fatality rate comparable to the 1918 Flu that turned into a world-wide pandemic and killed a lot of people in absolute numbers even if the percentage of sick people who died was under 3%. _Right now_ absolute numbers of deceased people are small and we all hope it stays that way, but _potentially_ it could become a big problem if the virus continues to spread. As an example, if, hypothetically, everyone in China got this new virus at current mortality rates the expected death toll would be around 40 million. Naw, don’t really want to see that. Much better if we can avoid that. > [@Slash1972](#): > > That being said, I’m flying to Thailand on Saturday, so wish me luck! Luck! Also - bring sanitizing wipes for your airplane seat rests, tray, and other things you’ll be touching and wash your hands frequently. Which are good practices regardless. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/247 "2020-01-29T22:59:28Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Seen this movie too many times. If this thing is just SARS, H1N1, Mad Cow, Ebola, etc. all over again … I’ll be totally safe. Bear in mind that these epidemics ended up not being a big deal because some very smart people saw it a potentially a big deal and worked massive overtime to prevent it from becoming a big deal. The Spanish Avian flu of 1918 killed literally millions of people worldwide and it scarcely registered a blip because of some other big war going on at the time. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/248 "2020-01-29T23:05:17Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > Among my friends, the time off work is time leading up to the new year. Extending the holiday more than a few days after would be unusual. Among our suppliers, the workers are expected to make up the time lost in holidays by working weekends. Nobody takes a 15 day period. Perhaps 15 days is big companies or the self-employed or something? Any major factory with a large percentage of migrant line workers will be shut for a minimum of 10 days. I expect there are Chinese labor laws to this effect but I’m not sure. Small operations may be able to do just the standard holiday with weekend switching, but for those above the radar, they will be shut 10-15 days. ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2020, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/249 "2020-01-29T23:25:32Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Because, apparently, people infected with this virus can spread it before symptoms show, it’s fairly contagious, and it has a fatality rate comparable to the 1918 Flu that turned into a world-wide pandemic and killed a lot of people in absolute numbers even if the percentage of sick people who died was under 3%. Yeah. No. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu): _The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died._ 2-3% fatality rate is just about the same as 10-20%. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/250 "2020-01-30T00:10:42Z")
Hmmm… the information I googled indicated 3% for the 1918 pandemic. OK, so there’s some disagreement. In any case, it’s an estimate. My calculations based on 3% and today’s population still hold, though. If this gets loose it’s still millions dead. So good thing there are people working to keep it from spreading. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/251 "2020-01-30T02:49:28Z")
[What’s new in the China virus outbreak as of about 6pm PST 29 January 2019?](https://apnews.com/f3e14e2ee10a725c55eb1d0aae58bff3) > [@](#): > > — The virus has killed 170 people, and the virus has now infected more people in China than were sickened there during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak. > > — World health officials expressed worry that the virus is starting to spread between people outside of China. Meanwhile, scientists said there is evidence that the virus has spread person-to-person among close contacts since mid-December. They estimate that each infection led to 2.2 others on average, suggesting considerable effort may be needed to control its spread. > > — Several countries moved to bring residents home from China. About 200 Americans flown out of Wuhan on a plane chartered by the U.S. government were undergoing three days of monitoring at a Southern California military base. In Tokyo, the second group of Japanese evacuees arrived aboard a government-chartered flight. The European Union was working to bring back 600 citizens from 14 countries. > > — Sporting events in China were postponed and Olympic qualifying tournaments were moved elsewhere. The country’s women’s soccer team was quarantined in Australia ahead of an Olympic qualifying tournament. None of the players has shown symptoms. > > — Airlines around the world suspended or significantly cut back service to China. > > — A family of four Chinese tourists in the United Arab Emirates became the Mideast’s first cases of the virus. > > — The outbreak kept many indoors and at home in China’s capital during what is usually one of the busiest periods for tourism. Beijing cultural landmarks such as the Great Wall and Forbidden City closed to visitors, while shopping malls, restaurants and subway stations were nearly empty. > > — Villages on the outskirts of Beijing closed themselves off to outsiders, with residents blocking roads with piles of earth and standing guard to prevent outsiders and their vehicles from entering. More than 7,700 infected. I note that is not an exact number; previous days had exact numbers. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/252 "2020-01-30T04:08:12Z")
According to my wife, who is in Shanghai, all passengers on all flights originating in China are getting their temperature checked. I believe each person gets a temp gun check in addition to all passing thru a general temperature check. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/253 "2020-01-30T04:12:34Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [What’s new in the China virus outbreak as of about 6pm PST 29 January 2019?](https://apnews.com/f3e14e2ee10a725c55eb1d0aae58bff3)More than 7,700 infected. I note that is not an exact number; previous days had exact numbers. There is an exact number FWIW. 7783 cases 170 deaths (none outside of China) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/254 "2020-01-30T04:12:43Z")
Finally, a voice of reason about this disease: [We Should Deescalate the War on the Coronavirus](https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-we-should-deescalate-the-war-on-the-coronavirus/) from Wired. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/255 "2020-01-30T04:16:37Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > According to my wife, who is in Shanghai, all passengers on all flights originating in China are getting their temperature checked. I believe each person gets a temp gun check in addition to all passing thru a general temperature check. When I was in the Beijing airport in early January, I noticed some sort of health screening area. Like a separate queue. It wasn’t staffed and wasn’t being used but I thought of previous outbreaks like SARS. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/256 "2020-01-30T04:23:26Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Finally, a voice of reason about this disease: [We Should Deescalate the War on the Coronavirus](https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-we-should-deescalate-the-war-on-the-coronavirus/) from Wired. Total bullshit. Equating trying to close live animal markets with the homophobic hysteria of the AIDS epidemic is ludicrous. Yes, catching all cases is unlikely. So sure we should just give up. Bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/257 "2020-01-30T04:33:28Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > There is an exact number FWIW. > > 7783 cases > > 170 deaths (none outside of China) Ah; thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/258 "2020-01-30T04:33:58Z")
Lol. “We should” in reference to China… ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/259 "2020-01-30T05:27:48Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Finally, a voice of reason about this disease: [We Should Deescalate the War on the Coronavirus](https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-we-should-deescalate-the-war-on-the-coronavirus/) from Wired. I’ve had to say it maybe 4 times in this thread, but it seems I need to tell Wired too: novel viruses are of particular concern because there is a much greater chance of them mutating to become more contagious or more virulent than a virus that has been mutating alongside humans for hundreds of years. So when they say “it is already reasonably apparent that the virus is a relatively mild infection for most” the first response, and the one that destroys their whole point is “Yeah, _for now_ it is”. The other response is that “not dying” and “mild” are not synonyms. I wouldn’t consider my lungs filling with fluid such that it feels like drowning, and long coughing fits where every cough is excruciatingly painful “mild”. But I see the writing on the wall. Even if it takes months or years of protracted effort in China to contain this virus, the story in the Western world is going to be that it was a storm in a teacup and typical media hype. When in fact, some degree of panic was necessary to prevent it spreading around the world. And we should all consider how much we are funding disease research and whether our processes are ready for the inevitable seriously contagious, seriously deadly virus. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/260 "2020-01-30T06:35:03Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I’ve had to say it maybe 4 times in this thread, but it seems I need to tell Wired too: novel viruses are of particular concern because there is a much greater chance of them mutating to become more contagious or more virulent than a virus that has been mutating alongside humans for hundreds of years… What is the basis for this statement? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/261 "2020-01-30T07:46:28Z")
Well I read something about how the first 3 months are a critical monitoring period for newly emerging viruses but I cannot seem to find that cite now. However, [here](https://mmbr.asm.org/content/72/3/457#ref-15) is a cite that backs up what I am saying at least: that novel viruses have just crossed a species barrier and so are likely to change significantly as they begin the process of adapting to humans. > [@Cross-Species Virus Transmission and the Emergence of New Epidemic Diseases](#): > > Early detection of inefficiently spreading viruses in a new host would provide opportunities for epidemic control. In the SARS CoV outbreak, the first virus that emerged was only inefficiently transmitted by most infected people, and early recognition of the outbreak and institution of active control measures (particularly quarantine) allowed the epidemic to be stopped before the virus could become fully established in humans [Here’s](https://www.pnas.org/content/101/8/2542) a link that SARS did indeed eventually gain mutations to become more infectious in humans, as did [Ebola](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/has-new-mutation-ebola-virus-made-it-deadlier), and [others](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2496997/). ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/262 "2020-01-30T13:15:34Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Also - bring sanitizing wipes for your airplane seat rests, tray, and other things you’ll be touching and wash your hands frequently. Which are good practices regardless. I don’t normally do this, but it seems like a smart thing to do at least. I don’t want to get sick on vacation! 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=14)