# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/263 "2020-01-30T15:13:31Z")
> [@](#): > > Six thousand tourists are being held on a cruise ship in Italy over fears that one of the passengers could be infected with the Chinese coronavirus. > **[Costa Cruises says passenger has common flu, after 6,000 tourists were held...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/6000-people-in-lockdown-on-italian-cruise-ship-over-coronavirus-fears.html)** > > The lockdown on the Costa Smeralda came over fears that one of the passengers could be infected with the coronavirus. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/264 "2020-01-30T15:28:38Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Well I read something about how the first 3 months are a critical monitoring period for newly emerging viruses but I cannot seem to find that cite now. > > However, [here](https://mmbr.asm.org/content/72/3/457#ref-15) is a cite that backs up what I am saying at least: that novel viruses have just crossed a species barrier and so are likely to change significantly as they begin the process of adapting to humans. > > [Here’s](https://www.pnas.org/content/101/8/2542) a link that SARS did indeed eventually gain mutations to become more infectious in humans, as did [Ebola](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/has-new-mutation-ebola-virus-made-it-deadlier), and [others](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2496997/). The first three months are critical because it is your best chance to keep it from spreading far enough that it becomes impossible to contain. And keeping it contained avoids giving it as much of a chance to develop mutations that allow it to spread easier. Novel viruses don’t mutate any faster than established ones though. And have no drive to become more virulent. Which seemed to be what your were saying. Influenza is an established virus and mutates all the time. Yes, evolution works fast and crossing into a new host is going to see its common sorts of mutations selected for or against. Those mutations that allow better transmissibility will be selected for; those that do not will be selected against. Often viruses win against their brothers and sisters by being less virulent as mild illness aids in transmissibility. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/265 "2020-01-30T16:59:21Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The first three months are critical because it is your best chance to keep it from spreading far enough that it becomes impossible to contain. And keeping it contained avoids giving it as much of a chance to develop mutations that allow it to spread easier. Well that and the fact that newly emergent viruses may well change in characteristics as they become established in the new host. You asked for a cite, I gave you three. Why are you ignoring them? > [@](#): > > Novel viruses don’t mutate any faster than established ones. > And have no drive to become more virulent. Which seemed to be what your were saying. You first sentence is almost my exact words from [post #129](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22101296&postcount=129). And the second is absolutely not what I have said. The point is, it’s not that newly emerging viruses are more likely to mutate in the new host species than an established virus. It’s that their exact mechanism is not yet tested in the new host; essentially they have picked up whatever mutations are required to jump the species barrier and nothing more\*, and are initially ill-suited to the new host. It’s somewhat meaningless to say a newly emergent virus is weakly contagious given that they almost always are…at first. They need to gain additional mutations for the new host then we get to see the potential of this new strain of virus in that organism. And that’s why, as I cited, SARS, Ebola, Nipah virus and others all acquired mutations that made them more contagious in their first few months after initial outbreak in humans. - I learned something else from my first cite. The mutations required to jump a species barrier are often suboptimal in terms of a virus’ fitness for a given host organism. So one selection pressure having jumped a species barrier is to shed those mutations. > [@](#): > > Often viruses win against their brothers and sisters by being less virulent as mild illness aids in transmissibility. Yep. Virulence could usually be considered a bad thing for the virus. Nonetheless it can happen as a side effect as a newly emerging virus adapts to a new host. In fact, this is pretty much the root of most pathological viruses in humans. Most pathological viruses jumped from a species where they caused mild or no symptoms and were more severe in humans just due to some side effect of the difference in pathophysiology. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/266 "2020-01-30T17:30:55Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > … You asked for a cite, I gave you three. Why are you ignoring them? … I’m not. I’m discussing them. Again, what you _seemed_ to me to be saying, may not be what you meant by there being a “much greater chance of them mutating to become more contagious or more virulent than a virus that has been mutating alongside humans for hundreds of years.” We seem to agree that there is no particular reason to expect a novel to human virus to become _more_ virulent as it spreads through a human population, any more than an established virus has any chance to, and perhaps a bit _less_ reason to expect such. To some degree evolutionary success for the virus is helped by decreased virulence as it adapts to the new host, shedding the features that make the new host more ill faster. Coronaviruses have a high mutation rate and there are lots of human coronaviruses out there. None that have been around in humans as a host a long time have a high rate of serious morbidity or mortality … convergent evolution to the most successful strategy for the family. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/267 "2020-01-30T18:36:08Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > We seem to agree that there is no particular reason to expect a novel to human virus to become _more_ virulent as it spreads through a human population, any more than an established virus has any chance to, and perhaps a bit _less_ reason to expect such. To some degree evolutionary success for the virus is helped by decreased virulence as it adapts to the new host, shedding the features that make the new host more ill faster. I think I see the misconception here. Because I _am_ saying there is an increased chance of a newly emergent virus becoming virulent. Not because it is mutating more. Not because it “wants” to become virulent. But because what we mean by “adapting to the host” is different for an established virus versus newly-emerged virus. An established virus in humans is well adapted to spreading within and between humans. The main selection pressure on it now is simply the human immune system and the antibodies that are currently effective against the virus. For a newly-established virus, it’s not the same. Firstly, it necessarily acquired genes that allowed it to jump a species barrier, and, as I said, these genes are not only _not required_ but are often _suboptimal_ for the purpose of spreading within a species, so there is a selection pressure to shed those genes – this already can impact how contagious and how virulent the virus is as a side effect. Secondly there may well be a number of genes the virus has that are beneficial for living in civet cats or bats, but are a hinderence in humans; so there’s a selection pressure against those genes too, and changes to those genes can have knock-on effects as well. As I say, we cannot look at a new virus in a species, see that it is poorly contagious and has characteristics X, and declare that there’s nothing to worry about. Because newly emergent viruses almost always are poorly contagious _at first_, having just jumped a species barrier. And their characteristics usually change as they go through this initial stage to some characteristics Y. Usually X and Y are similar, but we can be unlucky and Y is some extremely virulent pathophysiology. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/268 "2020-01-30T19:13:14Z")
[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/JYTzX9JCbDY/maxresdefault.jpg "Fight the Virus - Alvin Oon") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTzX9JCbDY) Parody song Fight The Virus sung to Sound of Silence ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/269 "2020-01-30T19:16:27Z")
Hello virus from Wuhan Another problem’s here again Because you see the contagion creeping And the virus is indeed spreading And the memory of SARS planted in my brain Still remains We stand and fight the virus We hear of theories how it grew From snakes and bats became a flu Passing the sickness from man to man Now it’s growing, getting out of hand It’s a virus that has travelled near and far Corona We have to fight the virus ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2020, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/270 "2020-01-30T19:56:56Z")
A bit depressing. When you said Fight The Virus I immediately imagined “Public Enemy - Fight the Power” but with the lyric changed to Fight Corona. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/271 "2020-01-31T00:39:42Z")
Russia closed their border today: [Europe evacuates citizens from China, Russia shuts border | AP News](https://apnews.com/9e2536bf7c7a3cd03b80688e476ed822) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/272 "2020-01-31T04:03:25Z")
[Here’s some news:](https://apnews.com/9e22f8aabe2f454593b9f9b4c67eb31f) > [@](#): > > China counted 9,692 confirmed cases with a death toll of 213, including 43 new fatalities. The vast majority of the cases have been in Hubei province and its provincial capital, Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. No deaths have been reported outside China. > > In the seven days ending at midnight Thursday, the National Health Commission reported 596 cases have been “cured and discharged from hospital.” ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/273 "2020-01-31T04:03:45Z")
Per the [Johns Hopkins site](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) that **blue infinity** initially linked to. As of 1/30/2020 21:30 Eastern US time; 9776 cases 213 deaths (still all in China I believe) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/274 "2020-01-31T07:24:51Z")
Has anyone here heard of _Fah Talai Jone_? This medicinal herb is available from Amazon, seems definitely good at fighting virus, and is touted for other purposes as well! Our sister tells us to take it as protection from the coronavirus. Google News doesn’t know about that yet — I get zero hits from “Fah Talai Jone coronavirus” but, as Hamlet said to Horatio, “There are more things in heaven and earth, Google, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” I’m sure I’ll be laughed at here but, since Google tells me Fah Talai Jone may also prevent angina, I’ll be taking it. The Fah Talai Jone plants in our orchard are dying (S.E. Asia is in record-setting drought), but my wife just stopped at a drugstore and picked up 18 bottles! ETA: Oops. I just clicked Amazon: "Currently unavailable. We don’t know when or if this item will be back in stock. " ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/275 "2020-01-31T09:09:45Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > Per the [Johns Hopkins site](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) that **blue infinity** initially linked to. As of 1/30/2020 21:30 Eastern US time; > > 9776 cases > > 213 deaths (still all in China I believe) So… that’s a death rate of 2.2%, down from the initial 3% Of course, many caveats with that - whether or not all infections are being captured in the data, in many cases the infections are new and it’s not known how serious they’ll become, etc., etc. but that’s the direction I’d like that stat to go. Also consistent that initially it was the most severe cases seen and now we’re capturing less severe instances of the virus. Still spreading fast, though. Hope the containment measures being taken work. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@Charlie\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/276 "2020-01-31T09:11:48Z")
I’m looking at a current headline that reads, “As the coronavirus spreads, fear is fueling racism and xenophobia”. Here is the link: [http://www.kake.com/story/41635356/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-fear-is-fueling-racism-and-xenophobia](http://www.kake.com/story/41635356/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-fear-is-fueling-racism-and-xenophobia) Diaspora communities and local authorities are preparing for this, with many trying to calm fear before it becomes hysteria. In France, the newspaper controversy sparked a social media campaign, with many French Chinese citizens using the hashtag #JeNeSuisPasUnVirus – I am not a virus. I saw in the news that some Chinese people living in Europe are actually carrying signs saying, “I am not a virus”. Reminds me of the tragedy in France that sparked many people to proclaim, “I am not Charlie”. That had something to do with the events of Jan. 7, 2015 concerning the newspaper “Charlie Hebdo” in Paris. For anyone who might suspect I chose the name “Charlie” in response to that, I chose this name long before that incident. Some of you have advised me in private messages to try and relax and there is no reason to panic. I appreciate your kind words and thank you very much. Best wishes to you all. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/277 "2020-01-31T11:11:22Z")
> [@Charlie\_Wayne](#): > > I saw in the news that some Chinese people living in Europe are actually carrying signs saying, “I am not a virus”. Reminds me of the tragedy in France that sparked many people to proclaim, “I am not Charlie”. That had something to do with the events of Jan. 7, 2015 concerning the newspaper “Charlie Hebdo” in Paris. For anyone who might suspect I chose the name “Charlie” in response to that, I chose this name long before that incident. In response to the Charlie Hebdo attack, people were declaring [“I am Charlie,”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Je_suis_Charlie) not “I am not Charlie.” Clearly the “I am not a virus” shirts are related, but they declare a kind of opposing sentiment; the wearer is declaring no connection with the virus, whereas people claiming “I am Charlie” were declaring unity with (and support for) the victims of the Charlie Hebdo attack. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/278 "2020-01-31T16:34:04Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Has anyone here heard of _Fah Talai Jone_? This medicinal herb is available from Amazon, seems definitely good at fighting virus, and is touted for other purposes as well! > > Our sister tells us to take it as protection from the coronavirus. Google News doesn’t know about that yet — I get zero hits from “Fah Talai Jone coronavirus” but, as Hamlet said to Horatio, “There are more things in heaven and earth, Google, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” > > I’m sure I’ll be laughed at here but, since Google tells me Fah Talai Jone may also prevent angina, I’ll be taking it. The Fah Talai Jone plants in our orchard are dying (S.E. Asia is in record-setting drought), but my wife just stopped at a drugstore and picked up 18 bottles! > > ETA: Oops. I just clicked Amazon: "Currently unavailable. > We don’t know when or if this item will be back in stock. " Go ahead and stock up on Forsythia instead. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/279 "2020-01-31T16:47:50Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > Per the [Johns Hopkins site](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) that **blue infinity** initially linked to. As of 1/30/2020 21:30 Eastern US time; > > 9776 cases > > 213 deaths (still all in China I believe) Kind of surprising that the rate of increase of diagnosed cases has been so consistent. (Graph on the site above.) If only by virtue of wider deployment of testing capability and very high index of suspicion I would have expected the curve to be getting significantly steeper at this point. Instead the curve of diagnosed cases is merely a pretty straight line with the calculated mortality rate nevertheless decreasing. Huh. To me that reads like pretty dang effective containment and kudos deserved by the Chinese health system in particular. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/280 "2020-01-31T17:09:46Z")
> [@Charlie\_Wayne](#): > > I’m looking at a current headline that reads, “As the coronavirus spreads, fear is fueling racism and xenophobia”. Here is the link: > > [http://www.kake.com/story/41635356/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-fear-is-fueling-racism-and-xenophobia](http://www.kake.com/story/41635356/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-fear-is-fueling-racism-and-xenophobia) Good article (and sad situation). Another recent episode was a cruise ship of 6000 people in Italy that was quarantined because a Chinese woman had a fever ([story](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51314138)). OK she had come from Hong Kong, so it was a non-zero risk, but still. On the topic of Chinese eating weird stuff, as well as the good points the article mentions (that few Chinese eat these exotic meats, and it’s all culturally relative anyway), one thing I’d add is this: the only reason eating cows or chickens doesn’t give us novel viruses is because we have already caught most of them centuries ago (although new pathogens still occasionally occur e.g. CJD), and live and die with them already. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/281 "2020-01-31T18:16:07Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To some degree evolutionary success for the virus is helped by decreased virulence as it adapts to the new host, shedding the features that make the new host more ill faster. There’s a fundamental flaw in your reasoning here. We’re not necessarily concerned about what virulence phenotype is ultimately adaptive under natural selection for the virus, we’re concerned about the probability that mutations give rise to a virulence phenotype in the first place, and how many humans that might kill. Evolutionary adaptation by natural selection occurs through differential surivival of different phenotypes, in other words differential _death_. A mutation that gives rise to an “extreme virulence” phenotype for the virus may ultimately be an evolutionary dead end for the virus, because it kills the host much too quickly, and the virus requires hosts to remain alive. But it’s not much consolation if this process of natural selection for the non-virulent phenotype involves the death of 100 million humans! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/282 "2020-01-31T19:19:13Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > There’s a fundamental flaw in your reasoning here. We’re not necessarily concerned about what virulence phenotype is ultimately adaptive under natural selection for the virus, we’re concerned about the probability that mutations give rise to a virulence phenotype in the first place, and how many humans that might kill. Evolutionary adaptation by natural selection occurs through differential surivival of different phenotypes, in other words differential _death_. A mutation that gives rise to an “extreme virulence” phenotype for the virus may ultimately be an evolutionary dead end for the virus, because it kills the host much too quickly, and the virus requires hosts to remain alive. But it’s not much consolation if this process of natural selection for the non-virulent phenotype involves the death of 100 million humans! Well first of all, no. Differential viral “death” rate is not what determines how much a virus spreads or kills. The point your are responding to is a very narrow one: are novel to humans viruses MORE likely to become more virulent in the near future after having crossed species than ones that have been in humans for a long while? And the answer is very clearly NO. The selection pressure is greater on a novel to human virus to keeping hosts not only alive but out and about functioning in society. Balanced with having a high enough replication within the infected individual to be spraying some out there (which means a bit sick). Yes it is very true that a virus with a fairly low mortality rate that infects millions will still cause hundreds of thousands of deaths - see seasonal influenza. And yes to the point that a pandemic with high absolute numbers of deaths is possible while that selection process occurs - see Spanish flu. But this is where the high mutation rate of coronaviruses plays both ways - there is a greater chance that it will mutate to a more “successful” less virulent form faster than a new influenza one. Harder to contain but less likely as virulent if it spreads. Still correct during that race with many infected many could die as the mortality rate drops from 2% to orders of magnitude less. FYI [here](http://www.virology.ws/2020/01/23/a-lesson-from-sars-cov-for-2019-ncov/) is an interesting bit discussing mutations in novel to human viruses. > [@](#): > > … outbreak-associated mutations do not have to increase viral replication or virulence. … Mutations have been identified in the genomes of other zoonotic viruses, including MERS-CoV, that might also reduce virulence of the virus for humans. A single amino acid change in the ebolavirus glycoprotein has been suggested to increase replication and therefore transmission in humans. However subsequent studies showed that the change reduces virulence in animal models. It is interesting to consider that in all these cases, the selection for mutations that reduce virulence might prolong survival time of the host to allow transmission to others. Such a scenario is consistent with the fact that the strongest selection force on a viral genome is transmission to another host. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=15)