# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/303 "2020-02-01T23:19:37Z")
[Whistle-blowers in Wuhan who warned about the risk of a coronavirus outbreak last month were arrested](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7949969/Whistle-blowers-arrested-warning-coronavirus-China.html). As I said earlier, China controls the flow of information. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/304 "2020-02-01T23:43:38Z")
This is an interesting[blog post](https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/) from yesterday by Lauren Gardner at Johns Hopkins. She states that "Furthermore, based on this analysis, we believe the outbreak began in November, and there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December. " The latest numbers I see are 13,968 cases with 304 deaths. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/305 "2020-02-01T23:46:42Z")
Nurses in Hong Kong are threatening to strike as early as Monday, if borders with China are not closed. [NPR story](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/01/801837678/coronavirus-fears-lead-nurses-to-threaten-strike-in-hong-kong-if-borders-arent-s) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/306 "2020-02-02T00:49:46Z")
Now 13,983 identified cases and 304 deaths. Which is the slope of the curve of newly identified cases \*flattening \*despite increased testing and big case finding efforts. Mortality rate at under 2.2%. That flattening of the curve is a big deal. Maybe just a statistical blip, I’m not too excited yet, wait for the next few days of same or further improved, but it is big nevertheless. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/307 "2020-02-02T03:39:36Z")
Walking around Taipei this morning, it was remarkable how much the number of people has dropped off. Lots of people staying home. I did a couple of random counts and about 90% were wearing masks. (My iPhone suggested “underwear” but I didn’t ask.) Yesterday’s flight was on 60% full, the first time in years that I’ve been on a plane with more than a couple of empty seats. There are over a million Taiwanese working in China and many, if not most of them return home during Chinese New Year. Taiwan is also in the top five tourist destinations for China. All of that and there are only 10 confirmed cases in Taiwan. There are only 10 cases in Japan despite how crowded the trains are in Tokyo. It doesn’t seem like this is some super disease. While the number of cases will undoubtedly rise, I remain skeptical that there will be massive outbreaks outside of China. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/308 "2020-02-02T04:00:22Z")
TokyoBayer, IIRC you had quite a time during SARS. Sent your family back to Taiwan, and then some almost clandestine maneuvers to get from Tokyo to Osaka, and then fly to Taiwan. Do I have that roughly correct? You are right that something like 1 million Taiwanese have returned to Taiwan for Chinese New Year. Cases are very low. My company has had dozens if not hundreds of employees in Wuhan returned to Taiwan before CNY. No reported cases among them. Company mandated work from home with pay/self quarantine for 14 days policy from before CNY. Delta sent an email to my wife in Shanghai to cancel her reservation on 5 Feb. Not sure the story since we are pretty estranged, but Delta changed her ticket to Monday routed thru Seoul to SF then to SEA. Mother in law decided the risk of dying from the coronavirus was lower than the hassle of being stuck in the US for at least 2 months, and has opted to remain in Shanghai. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/309 "2020-02-02T04:32:08Z")
Anecdotally, during my recent trip to the States from Australia, I noticed a _lot_ more face masks on people, especially in San Francisco airport. Most of those people were Asian-looking - but not all. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/310 "2020-02-02T05:54:35Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Used carefully and properly… yes, they can reduce the spread of some illnesses, particularly if they are worn by the person with the sneezing/coughing/runny nose, capturing mucus and droplets of moisture. > > Used improperly, they can actually become a vector for transmission - you have to handle something that is potentially contaminated carefully, and then carefully wash your hands afterward. Actually… this is kind of interesting. Face masks tend to stop you from touching your mouth and nose, even just wiping your face. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/311 "2020-02-02T06:25:27Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > Actually… this is kind of interesting. Face masks tend to stop you from touching your mouth and nose, even just wiping your face. I agree with this. It may slow transmission because you don’t touch your face as much. I’ve worn masks traveling to southeast Asia several times, which I do because I tend to get every darned common cold on overseas flights, and I’ve totally noticed my own change in habits when I do. Hell, I’ve been stroking my beard as I write this post. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/312 "2020-02-02T10:28:07Z")
Unfortunately the flattened curve was just a blip. Now 14,627 with an under 2.1% mortality rate. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/313 "2020-02-02T10:53:22Z")
Winter vacations for schools has been extended until February 24. My school has winter camp which starts tomorrow for a week. I suspect it won’t cancel that. I’ll find out tomorrow what the plan will be. Summer vacation will be shortened, which will be a bummer. > [@China\_Guy](#): > > TokyoBayer, IIRC you had quite a time during SARS. Sent your family back to Taiwan, and then some almost clandestine maneuvers to get from Tokyo to Osaka, and then fly to Taiwan. Do I have that roughly correct? Good memory. It was during the Fukushima nuclear thing when people were panicking about that. There was panic buying, nothing but a few bottles of ketchup on the shelves and no diapers. They were trying to refill the spent fuel pools by dropping water in them from helicopters hovering several hundreds of meters above. My wife was going crazy with our toddler and six-month-old baby so we retreated to Taipei ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/314 "2020-02-02T10:59:05Z")
Link for news about the extension of the vacation: > **[Taiwan schools to extend winter break over coronavirus scare | Taiwan News |...](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3869428)** > > Ministry of Education announces winter break extension to prevent spread of coronavirus.After evaluating the risks of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spreading on school campuses, Taiwanese officials announced Feb. 2 that all primary and secondary... ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/315 "2020-02-02T13:47:51Z")
1st death outside of China, in the Philippines. The Philippines had only two confirmed cases. Interesting [case study in the NEJM](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home) about the course of the disease in the first US patient. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/316 "2020-02-02T16:52:05Z")
Not going to lie - starting to get a bit more concerned. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/317 "2020-02-02T17:53:31Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Unfortunately the flattened curve was just a blip. Now 14,627 with an under 2.1% mortality rate. I wonder how much we should be concerned about the reliability of the data out of China? Even if the central government authorities are honest in what they report to the rest of the world, there has often been a serious problem in China with local officials reporting data dishonestly to their superiors. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/318 "2020-02-02T18:45:03Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Just to be clear: those masks _don’t_ actually do anything, right? I bought some cheap surgical facemasks during the SARS scare, and I still have a box of facemasks in my cupboard. I plan to wear them when I fly in two weeks. I don’t know how good they are at keeping infected air out, but I know they work really well in two ways: 1. They keep my mucus membranes moist, and keep me from getting dehydrated when I fly. They work MUCH better for this than drinking extra water, with the added benefit that they don’t make me need to pee. I discovered this accidentally, when I had a little cold, and planned to fly, and thought it might be polite to cover my mouth and nose for the duration of the flight. It was the most comfortable flight I’d had in YEARS. I’m not going to look up the reference right now, but there’s a lot of evidence that dehydration makes you more susceptible to getting sick especially respiratory bugs. 1. They greatly reduce how often I touch my face. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/319 "2020-02-02T23:40:59Z")
**Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say** > [@](#): > > The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found. > > “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. > > “But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.” > **[Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say (Published...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html)** > > Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/320 "2020-02-03T01:20:53Z")
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**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/321 "2020-02-03T01:46:21Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > I bought some cheap surgical facemasks during the SARS scare, and I still have a box of facemasks in my cupboard. I plan to wear them when I fly in two weeks. I don’t know how good they are at keeping infected air out, but I know they work really well in two ways: > > 1. They keep my mucus membranes moist, and keep me from getting dehydrated when I fly. They work MUCH better for this than drinking extra water, with the added benefit that they don’t make me need to pee. > > I discovered this accidentally, when I had a little cold, and planned to fly, and thought it might be polite to cover my mouth and nose for the duration of the flight. It was the most comfortable flight I’d had in YEARS. Agree with this, too. I wore a mask on a flight from Hong Kong for the first time last year, and was expecting it to be a burden but it was actually extremely comfortable and it kept my mouth and nose hydrated as I recycled expelled moisture. Very comfortable to fly in. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/322 "2020-02-03T01:55:13Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Now 17,387 cases with 362 deaths = 2.08% > [https://thewuhanvirus.com/](https://thewuhanvirus.com/) That’s almost double the number that was reported at 11pm EST on Thursday - 9776 cases then. This is getting more worrisome by the day. I’d done the math on Friday, back when it seemed that the number of cases were rising at a pretty steady rate and it looked like we’d probably see reports of 70,000 cases by the end of February. It’s going to be a lot more if the last couple of days are any indication… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=17)