# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/343 "2020-02-04T02:43:16Z")
While it does appear as if the curve of new infections may have flattened today, I’m hesitant to give it much credence. As we’ve pretty much all noted, there are still too many variables at this stage, not the least of which is that this is still almost completely confined to China. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/344 "2020-02-04T03:03:19Z")
Now 20627 Infected 426 Dead > **[SBOBET: Agen Judi Bola Sbobet | Bola Mix Parlay Terpercaya 2022](https://amrc.ap.gov.in/assets/js/judi-bola/)** > > SBOBET Adalah Situs Judi Bola Mix Parlay Online Terpercaya 2022 Dan Agen Resmi Taruhan Bandar Bola SBOBET Bola Piala Dunia 24 Jam Terpercaya di Indonesia. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/345 "2020-02-04T14:46:33Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > 2-3% is order of 100 times higher rate than typical seasonal flu. A hugely greater number of people get some form of flu every year though, so something like a 1,000 times as many people die of flu each year globally than 2019-nCoV so far and 2019-nCoV might never reach that number (several 100k deaths). But, the 2-3% is very preliminary. See linked early study finding 3%: it seems to be just dividing 25 deaths by 835 confirmed cases as of Jan 23. It obviously doesn’t allow for mild cases that weren’t reported (which could conceivably make the ratio as low as typical flu), but OTOH also doesn’t seem to even try to correct for people among the confirmed cases who were seriously ill and might still die from it. Presumably some of the deaths reported since Jan 23 were among the 814 confirmed cases still alive on that date. > [https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext#tbl1](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext#tbl1) > > It also gives the age range of confirmed cases as 21-76. Even in the likely case there are actually children afflicted, it seems it might not be especially dangerous to them. Smaller percentage of a larger number - got it, thanks. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Kovitlac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/2bfe46/32.png) [@Kovitlac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kovitlac)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/346 "2020-02-04T15:05:49Z")
My job has two employees in China. One also works as a teacher, and has actually been stateside for over two weeks now. He and his family are probably here until the schools start up again. The other is in Shanghai, and I’m relieved that virtually everyone employed here can work remotely. I hope she and her family stay safe, and go out as little as possible. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/347 "2020-02-05T00:41:27Z")
My wife came back from Shanghai yesterday. She had to go thru a half dozen temperature checks to get to the airport grounds. No one goes outside without a mask on. Every condo or little residential area has temperature checks and goes into lockdown if there is one person with a temperature. Looks like Chinese leadership plan is to let this thing burn out in the big cities. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/348 "2020-02-05T01:40:20Z")
24553 Infected 492 Deaths ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/349 "2020-02-05T01:41:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [A NYT bit](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-china-epidemic.html) expressed it well in the Sunday paper:Yes, it is very likely as it is with influenza: kids don’t tend to get as sick very often but they spray it around. (One of the most important reasons to make sure your kids are vaccinated for flu every year!) > > Children have been infected and were part of [the family studied](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext) that showed asymptomatic infection. > The data is completely inconsistent with that. It takes much longer to be considered totally recovered. > > Deaths/totally recovered in Hubei: 414/396 = 1.05 > > Everywhere else in China together: 12/248 = 0.05 > > Percent total identified cases considered totally recovered in Hubei is 2.9%. > Everywhere else in China all together it’s 3.5%. > > **Buck Godot** ’s enumerated possible hypotheses are all reasonable ones. Selection bias to diagnosing and confirming the sickest only in Hubei, missing those with mild illness, or selection bias to only the healthiest being able to get out of Dodge, or overwhelmed systems unable to provide any reasonable supportive care within Hubei. Correction: the everywhere else was everywhere else, not only elsewhere else in China. The mortality rate _outside of Hubei_ is, so far, running comparable to seasonal influenza’s rate. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/350 "2020-02-05T02:05:33Z")
I’d like to thank everyone for their stories of how this has affected them. I see that a [Princess lines cruise ship](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/princess-cruises-quarantines-3700-after-10-passengers-test-positive-for-virus.html) has been quarantined in Japan after 10 passengers tested positive for the virus. 14 day quarantine. We know what’s going to happen next. “_Norovirus Devastates Unfortunate Passengers_” ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/351 "2020-02-05T03:33:00Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Looks like Chinese leadership plan is to let this thing burn out in the big cities. And up to now it has been very effective. The numbers of infected and deaths are published region-by-region and the Shanghai number has been pretty flat for a while, even as it borders the 2nd worst region after Hubei. I have heard a few stories about people from Wuhan being harassed, though nothing too serious yet. For example, there is a family next door to my friend that are from Wuhan but stayed in Shanghai during Chinese new year. However, another neighbour reported them, and the police came and they had to answer a lot of questions for a long time, and get tested and retested, because they had no documents to prove what their recent movements had been (why would they?). Eventually my friend was able to vouch that they had not left Shanghai. But yeah, that’s how seriously they are taking it, and the city remains a ghost town. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/352 "2020-02-05T05:52:07Z")
Interesting situation in Japan: > [@](#): > > Thousands of people face spending the next fortnight stuck on a luxury cruise ship quarantined off the Japanese port of Yokohama, after initial results showed 10 passengers have tested positive for the coronavirus. The Diamond Princess, with more than 3,700 passengers and crew onboard, had been prevented from sailing on Monday after an 80-year-old passenger who had travelled on the vessel late last month tested positive after he arrived home in Hong Kong. Of a further 273 people on board who have since been tested following health screenings, 31 results had come back – and of those 10 were positive… > > David Abel, a British passenger who has been on the Diamond Princess for more than two weeks, said that people were now being confined to their cabins. > **[Newborn among 28,000 coronavirus cases as death toll passes 550](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-cruise-ship-carrying-3700-quarantined-in-japan-after-10-test-positive)** > > News comes as Hong Kong says it will quarantine all people coming from mainland China So what do they do if several more develop symptoms in the next 14 days, particularly if it includes crew members who are bringing food to people? Being cooped up in a small cabin for 14 days would make me stir crazy. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/353 "2020-02-06T04:49:15Z")
Double post ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/354 "2020-02-06T04:51:29Z")
“How are they defining “asymptomatic”? The article does use that word but also says the child showed radiographic ground-glass lung opacities and reading what that means certainly sounds like a symptom…” “Symptoms” are usually something experienced and noted by the patient, for example, a sore throat. A “finding” or “sign” is something that can be observed by others, such as an x-ray. In this case asymptomatic almost certainly means that they didn’t feel ill. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/355 "2020-02-06T14:23:29Z")
Exactly. The adult family members had symptoms of “fever, upper or lower respiratory tract symptoms, or diarrhoea, or a combination of these 3–6 days after exposure” or, in the case of the over 60 year older family members, more “systemic symptoms.” The ten year old seemed just fine. No fever, no fast or hard breathing, no cough, no runny nose, no sore throat, no diarrhea, seemed fine. But was positive for the virus and had findings on CT of the lungs. The two of the family in their 30s initially presented with diarrhea as the first symptom. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/356 "2020-02-06T15:53:06Z")
[This rant](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo/) posted on Linked In is being shared extensively here in China. It compares the response and attitudes to H1N1 to coronavirus and argues that China is being stigmatized and treated unfairly. > [@Mario Cavolo](#): > > When the United States 2009 H1N1 swine flu emerged, an international emergency, a declared global pandemic, it eventually infected 60 million and initially killed a minimum of 18,449 cases that year. But the final story of the H1N1 global pandemic was far worse than that, with close to 300,000 deaths, according to the final tallies in 2012 reported by the CDC > […] > do you recall it took six months for the U.S. to declare a national emergency? Did any government from the onset in April 2009 through the end in April 2010, including the month of June, when H1N1 was declared an international emergency global pandemic, then send out a notice to its citizens that they should leave the United States? Close their borders to American travelers? He makes some good points, even if as a nitpick it may not be accurate to refer to it as “United States 2009 H1N1” when it is thought to have originated in Mexico. H1N1 continues to inflict great death and suffering this season. I couldn’t find a breakdown of deaths by flu type, but overall [10,000 have died](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182) in this winter season of flu in the US. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/357 "2020-02-06T19:33:52Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > [This rant](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo/) posted on Linked In is being shared extensively here in China. It compares the response and attitudes to H1N1 to coronavirus and argues that China is being stigmatized and treated unfairly. > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Mario Cavolo, Shenyang, China > > When the United States 2009 H1N1 swine flu emerged, an international emergency, a declared global pandemic, it eventually infected 60 million and initially killed a minimum of 18,449 cases that year. > > He makes some good points, even if as a nitpick it may not be accurate to refer to it as “United States 2009 H1N1” when it is thought to have originated in Mexico. > > H1N1 continues to inflict great death and suffering this season. I couldn’t find a breakdown of deaths by flu type, but overall [10,000 have died](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182) in this winter season of flu in the US. Isn’t 18,449 only 0.03% of 60,000,000? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/358 "2020-02-06T19:54:35Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > Pet peeve of mine. _Everyone_ has a temperature. Every_thing_ that’s not at absolute zero has a temperature. The temperature checks are looking for people with an elevated temperature, or fever. Get a life. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/359 "2020-02-07T00:52:15Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Isn’t 18,449 only 0.03% of 60,000,000? 1. As the article points out, this was just a number announced at the time but which the CDC now thinks was a significant under-estimate. 2. 2019-nCOV may have a comparable death rate. It’s only Hubei that is reporting a high death rate right now, and that may be because of an overstressed medical system there meaning milder cases are not being recorded. 3. The specifics of the numbers aren’t that relevant to the point of the article. The point is that China is being treated unfairly given that it is taking extreme measures, and a big economic hit, to curtail the spread of a new virus strain. This is completely unlike what happened with the H1N1 virus, which largely spread out of the US, in 2009. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/360 "2020-02-07T01:02:57Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > 1. 2019-nCOV may have a comparable death rate. It’s only Hubei that is reporting a high death rate right now, and that may be because of an overstressed medical system there meaning milder cases are not being recorded An overstressed medical system also might not be able to render appropriate treatment to everyone, where a medical system that isn’t so stressed might have a better survival rate simply because it is _able_ to properly treat everyone. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/361 "2020-02-07T02:20:57Z")
31480 Infected 639 Deaths > **[DOASLOT: Situs Slot Gacor Terbaru Dan Terpercaya Server Thailand](https://iprachicago.org/)** > > Doaslot adalah situs judi slot gacor online dari server thailand gampang menang dan merupakan situs terpercaya dengan peringat rtp 98% akurat anti rungkad > [@](#): > > A Chinese doctor who was among the first to blow the whistle on the new coronavirus has died from the disease, the hospital treating him said on social media early Friday local time. > > Li Wenliang, 34, an ophthalmologist based in Wuhan, was reprimanded in early January by local police authorities for “publishing falsehoods” after he mentioned in a WeChat group seven cases of a virus similar to SARS from a seafood market. > > News of Li’s death has triggered millions of reactions on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. > **[Coronavirus Whistleblower Dies From The Disease In China](https://www.npr.org/2020/02/06/803523981/coronavirus-whistleblower-dies-from-the-disease-in-china)** > > Li Wenliang, a 34-year-old ophthalmologist based in Wuhan, was reprimanded in early January by local authorities for "publishing falsehoods" after he mentioned cases of the virus in a WeChat group. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/362 "2020-02-07T02:28:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Another 41 people tested positive for the novel coronavirus on board the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess in Japan, bringing the total number of cases on the vessel to 61. > **[Another 41 people test positive for coronavirus on quarantined cruise ship in...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/06/104d0532-4869-11ea-8124-0ca81effcdfb_story.html)** > > Experts say it is too early to predict an end to the outbreak, but evidence suggests that while very contagious, the virus is less deadly than first feared. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=19)