# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/363 "2020-02-07T03:02:26Z")
Starting today, foreign nationals who have visited or resided in the PRC (including Hong Kong and Macau) in the previous 14 days are prohibited from entering Taiwan. Foreign nationals who have a Taiwan Resident Certificate are permitted to enter but must be quarantined at home for 14 days. ---
**Author:** ![StGermain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stgermain/32/2868_2.png) [@StGermain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StGermain)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/364 "2020-02-07T04:49:40Z")
What I find interesting is there are no documented cases reported in Africa. There’s a pretty large Chinese presence in Africa, and I’d expect to see at least a few cases somewhere in the continent. StG ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/365 "2020-02-07T05:38:22Z")
The Tiger Moms in the local school district are naming and shaming kids and their parents if one parent (asymptomatic) has returned from China without self quarantining the asymptomatic kids for 2 weeks. Or at least make the kids wear a mask. The Chinese language groups, of which I am a part, are self fulfilling panic fests that could use a dose of the Straight Dope Fightin’ Ignorance. One Mom said US Immigration and CDC requires mandatory 2 week quarantine. I showed the [link](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/communication-resources.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Ftravelers%2Ffrom-china.html)that says you must monitor health for 14 days. One mom wrote “this is not about official document” and “you are not doing anything wrong technically.” At my kids specific school, the principal today told at least one tiger mom that she could self quarantine _her own_kids, and they would have an excused absence. Go principal (who I will meet first thing tomorrow to make sure my kids are not getting bullied). A couple of the parents already have been keeping kids at home. Several more are debating whether to send them to my kids school tomorrow with or without face masks. I also offered to meet any parent that wants to talk after dropping off kids tomorrow. One refused to meet outside even at 20 paces. ;( The panic is widespread and touches State with the first known patient in the US, who has since been released from the hospital and is at home… ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/366 "2020-02-07T11:15:45Z")
there is a vaccine that may work > **[How Close Are We to a Coronavirus Vaccine?](https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/coronavirus-vaccine-possibility-sars-wuhan-research.html)** > > SARS may have given scientists a bit of a head start. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/367 "2020-02-07T12:03:48Z")
Now they’re saying that instead of the virus coming from snakes it could have come from that humblest of all God’s creatures, the noble Pangolin, or scaly anteater. [https://www.foxnews.com/science/chinese-scientists-say-pangolin-is-possible-coronavirus-host](https://www.foxnews.com/science/chinese-scientists-say-pangolin-is-possible-coronavirus-host) Seriously is there anything on God’s green Earth that the Chinese won’t eat? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/368 "2020-02-07T12:13:23Z")
Apparently not - everything edible on the planet is apparently eaten by someone in China, even if it’s not a wildly common foodstuff. I have to say the increasing number of cases is no surprise to me - after all, that’s what happens in an epidemic. Even though I’m in a demographic that has not fared well when infected - over 50 and with a chronic respiratory condition (asthma) - I’m not particularly worried for my own self. The cases here in the US and the greater Chicago area are small and apparently well contained. If there’s a spike in cases in Chicago _then_ I will start to get personally worried. Meanwhile - there’s definitely considerable suffering in other places, and the economic impact is going to be widespread due to the global importance of China’s economy. If anything, I worry more about that than actually catching the virus myself. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/369 "2020-02-07T15:13:26Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > [This rant](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo/) posted on Linked In is being shared extensively here in China. It compares the response and attitudes to H1N1 to coronavirus and argues that China is being stigmatized and treated unfairly. > . . . H1N1 killed 300,000 people, by his own admission. To now claim racism and xenophobia because we are trying to prevent the same thing from happening again is going a bit off the rails, I think. We are doing a much better job of containing this outbreak. Nonetheless, there has been one death in the Philippines, and a person to person transmission in the USA. It could be argued that not enough is being done. This is the best dashboard I have found for real data: > **[ArcGIS Dashboards](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1cnB4UuOYuu2DNYoCsIwM9x5iJp6Gxm8VXUT8Hs2AZI3cw_KF1BrsN29Q?fbclid=IwAR1cnB4UuOYuu2DNYoCsIwM9x5iJp6Gxm8VXUT8Hs2AZI3cw_KF1BrsN29Q)** > > ArcGIS Dashboards ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/370 "2020-02-07T15:18:52Z")
> [@StGermain](#): > > What I find interesting is there are no documented cases reported in Africa. There’s a pretty large Chinese presence in Africa, and I’d expect to see at least a few cases somewhere in the continent. > > StG There is at least one confirmed case in the Canary Islands, which I think are technically the same continent. But I think it’s also important to note the lack of healthcare in vast swaths of the continent. Even in North America there are likely a few cases going unreported. ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/371 "2020-02-07T18:47:29Z")
> [@pool](#): > > Now they’re saying that instead of the virus coming from snakes it could have come from that humblest of all God’s creatures, the noble Pangolin, or scaly anteater. . . . I’m seriously wondering if someone made that up (or just asked questions) in order to help save the pangolin. If so, I approve. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/372 "2020-02-07T19:53:48Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > H1N1 killed 300,000 people, by his own admission. To now claim racism and xenophobia because we are trying to prevent the same thing from happening again is going a bit off the rails, I think. > > We are doing a much better job of containing this outbreak. Nonetheless, there has been one death in the Philippines, and a person to person transmission in the USA. It could be argued that not enough is being done. > > This is the best dashboard I have found for real data: > > [ArcGIS Dashboards](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1cnB4UuOYuu2DNYoCsIwM9x5iJp6Gxm8VXUT8Hs2AZI3cw_KF1BrsN29Q#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) Right but are there many people condemning the US handling of H1N1, or even aware of it as growing out of the US? How about how headlines all say “deadly coronavirus” while meanwhile 2009 H1N1 is still piling up bodies as we speak? I’m all for learning from past mistakes and indeed that’s why China is going medieval on this. But the hypocrisy and xenophobia not so much. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/373 "2020-02-08T03:39:28Z")
> [@Yllaria](#): > > I’m seriously wondering if someone made that up (or just asked questions) in order to help save the pangolin. If so, I approve. From the article: > [@](#): > > Reuters reported the genome sequence of the coronavirus strain taken from pangolins in the study was 99 percent identical to infected people, according to China’s official Xinhua news agency. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/374 "2020-02-08T05:12:27Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Right but are there many people condemning the US handling of H1N1, or even aware of it as growing out of the US? How about how headlines all say “deadly coronavirus” while meanwhile 2009 H1N1 is still piling up bodies as we speak? > > I’m all for learning from past mistakes and indeed that’s why China is going medieval on this. > But the hypocrisy and xenophobia not so much. I cannot give this a big enough meh. 1. The tendency of the world to be less concerned with the devil you know (which ultimately H1N1 is a variant of) than the unknown is perhaps regrettable, but not based in xenophobia or hypocrisy. 2. There are no credible stories of American or Mexican authorities initially trying to suppress information about H1N1’s emergence. There are in China. A not too unusual late season pick up in influenza occurred in Mexico in March 2009 and when two cases were identified in California in April as being of a novel variant of swine origin the CDC went public with it immediately. There was no data at that time that it had any higher mortality rate than other new seasonal influenza has and within the month it had spread to 41 counties. The public should be more concerned about influenza but they are not. 3. The initial numbers for H1N1 were about the same as seasonal flu, something like 0.05% and 2019-nCoV initial numbers closer to 3%. _Yes_ H1N1 ended up a bit higher, and 2019 nCoV will very very likely end up much much less. But the former was not yet known and the latter is still just an educated best guess. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/375 "2020-02-08T05:27:57Z")
> [@Yllaria](#): > > I’m seriously wondering if someone made that up (or just asked questions) in order to help save the pangolin. If so, I approve. Unfortunately, the likely result is a large scale killing of the animals, out of fear. Pangolins are already in trouble. I hope this doesn’t tip them into extinction. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/376 "2020-02-08T06:20:19Z")
First dead American: > [@](#): > > The U.S. embassy confirmed early Saturday that an American citizen diagnosed with coronavirus died at Jinyintian Hospital in Wuhan, China on February 6. It appears this is the first death of an American citizen from the disease. > **[Coronavirus case confirmed in San Diego as global death toll tops 1,000](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-usa-confirmed-cases-news-cruise-ship-death-toll-evacuations-latest-2020-02-07/)** > > At least 1,018 people have died and more than 42,000 been infected with the new coronavirus, including almost two dozen Americans on a quarantined cruise ship. 34979 Infected 725 Deaths [https://thewuhanvirus.com/](https://thewuhanvirus.com/) > [@](#): > > One patient, admitted to a hospital in Wuhan, China, infected at least 10 health care workers and four other patients with the coronavirus that has sickened more than 34,000 people, killed 700 and reached two dozen other countries. > > The case was just one disturbing detail in a new report on 138 patients in Wuhan that helps explain how the illness progresses and how it spreads. > **[New Report on 138 Coronavirus Cases Reveals Disturbing Details (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html)** > > A highly contagious patient, virus transmission inside a hospital and unexpected turns for the worse have emerged as part of the epidemic in China. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/377 "2020-02-08T08:29:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I cannot give this a big enough meh. But phrasing it this way it sounds like you agree the point is correct, but don’t care. I don’t care whether you care. I’m just raising a point and it’s interesting to me that no one is willing to concede it. I think it’s because the narrative of this story is pretty locked in now, so any suggestion of the US being in the same boat in any sense or the stories being hyperbolic must be rejected. > [@](#): > > 1. The tendency of the world to be less concerned with the devil you know (which ultimately H1N1 is a variant of) than the unknown is perhaps regrettable, but not based in xenophobia or hypocrisy. It’s not either-or. If you look at my first post in this thread, i do emphasize that this virus is being monitored closely and fought against fiercely because it’s new. It’s also true that there’s a racial aspect to all this. No one considered closing borders to the US in 2009 or avoiding american made goods and brands. > [@](#): > > 1. There are no credible stories of American or Mexican authorities initially trying to suppress information about H1N1’s emergence. There are in China. A not too unusual late season pick up in influenza occurred in Mexico in March 2009 and when two cases were identified in California in April as being of a novel variant of swine origin the CDC went public with it immediately. There was no data at that time that it had any higher mortality rate than other new seasonal influenza has and within the month it had spread to 41 counties. The public should be more concerned about influenza but they are not. On the topic of suppression of information, you’re absolutely right. It was initially surpressed by local officials and reporting doctors were arrested. This is a big problem, just one facet of Chinas human Rights issues, and it’s probably the main topic of discussion in China now following dr lis death. Nevertheless, the time line for reporting the outbreak overall has been very swift, with region by region daily updates and several actions performed incredibly quickly eg sequencing and publishing data on the virus itself. You are also correct that the US did not announce an emergency on h1n1 until it was already pandemic. > [@](#): > > 1. The initial numbers for H1N1 were about the same as seasonal flu, something like 0.05% and 2019-nCoV initial numbers closer to 3%. _Yes_ H1N1 ended up a bit higher, and 2019 nCoV will very very likely end up much much less. But the former was not yet known and the latter is still just an educated best guess. I doubt the numbers make much difference to the headlines and the actions of some countries. As long as some people are dying, it’s the deadly corona virus from dirty China. How many news sites are mentioning that the death rate recorded outside of hubei is so low? How many are talking about the deaths to h1n1 now? Sent from my Redmi 5A using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/378 "2020-02-08T13:47:46Z")
\*\*If “meh” communicated agreeing but not caring, my miscommunication. But while some of the public has indeed responded with racism, the overall international response and the overall media coverage have no hypocrisy or xenophobia involved. You may be not remembering the hype and breathless news reporting that H1N1 got, but I sure do. There was a lot more public panic about it that 2019-nCoV is getting. 2009 “flu deaths on the rise” was _everywhere_. ([A refresher.](https://archives.cjr.org/the_observatory/media_hypes_swine_flu_report.php)) The global public health response in each case was appropriate to the facts and understanding of the risks as they were known at the time. A media narrative that there was a cover-up of information initially was not made for H1N1 because there was no reason to believe there was any. There were still segments of the public that felt there was one anyway. The media hype at the time was much LARGER in Western media during H1N1 than it is to 2019 nCoV. Lots about how deadly H1N1 was and horrible it could be. There were many who were literally panicked by it. The response difference in terms of travel restrictions when one was a at the time documented case fatality rate of season flu, and the other is currently still over 2%, is understandable and rational, not a “racial aspect”. And FWIW, a new pandemic with a death rate of 0.35% (current numbers outside of Hubei) would be very very bad. As my link pointed out [this](https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-08-24-swine-flu-vaccine_N.htm) was one example headline: “U.S. report predicts 30,000 to 90,000 H1N1 deaths” when the actual report claimed that such was a possibility and context was that 36,000 is the average for seasonal flu. Why did they do that? Same reason why the fact that the death rate being much lower outside of Hubei is not being reported is not the lede. Hint: not hypocrisy, not racism. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/379 "2020-02-08T15:05:28Z")
My memory squares with **DSeid** ’s here. My three-year-old son was swabbed and diagnosed with H1N1 … and aside from a fever (and not even a super-high one), his symptoms were really mild. That experience is just one anecdote, but it always made me wonder about media coverage of these kinds of illnesses. I mean, just going off hunches and best guesses from what’s known right this second: If a healthy adult volunteered to be knowingly and willingly infected with the Wuhan coronoavirus right now, in the setting of an ordinary Western hospital … wouldn’t that healthy adult’s survival chances be estimated to be essentially 100%? The virus is not magic – it causes treatable symptoms (right?) and (I would expect) the best information suggests that the human immune system \*can \*fight it off even without cutting-edge medical intervention. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/380 "2020-02-08T15:36:50Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > If a healthy adult volunteered to be knowingly and willingly infected with the Wuhan coronoavirus right now, in the setting of an ordinary Western hospital … Hospitals have very limited extra capacity. So hospitals are going to get overwhelmed in a pandemic–just as they have in Wuhan. And note ordinary hospital beds are not enough a significant part of the time; instead very expensive ICU beds are needed. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/381 "2020-02-08T15:55:27Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Hospitals have very limited extra capacity. So hospitals are going to get overwhelmed in a pandemic–just as they have in Wuhan. And note ordinary hospital beds are not enough a significant part of the time; instead very expensive ICU beds are needed. ??? You’re fighting the hypothetical a bit. Talking about one patient – a healthy patient whose exposure to the coronavirus is controlled and takes a place at a time known in advance. Cutting to the chase: is treating a patient with the Wuhan coronavirus a significantly different thing than treating a patient with a known strain of influenza? If so, is it largely the efforts necessary to contain the Wuhan coronavirus spread that causes differences in treatment? As a disease, in and of itself … forgetting contagion, spread, pandemic risk … is it comparable at all to influenza? A healthy person will generally fight it off at a very high success rate (north of 99.9%) even without ICU or other heightened elements of medical care\*\*, right or wrong (_based on what we know today_)? \*\*\* what I mean by that is “yes” to a private hospital room, doctors and nurses dressing like normal and administering IVs and oral medications like normal … and “no” to ICU, haz-mat suits, elbow-length latex gloves, etc.\* … Is it that the risk of spread is an immense deal, but the illness itself is not an immense deal per individual given baseline medical care? I guess I just don’t understand. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/382 "2020-02-08T19:46:32Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > ??? > > You’re fighting the hypothetical a bit. Talking about one patient – a healthy patient whose exposure to the coronavirus is controlled and takes a place at a time known in advance. > > Cutting to the chase: is treating a patient with the Wuhan coronavirus a significantly different thing than treating a patient with a known strain of influenza? If so, is it largely the efforts necessary to contain the Wuhan coronavirus spread that causes differences in treatment? > > As a disease, in and of itself … forgetting contagion, spread, pandemic risk … is it comparable at all to influenza? A healthy person will generally fight it off at a very high success rate (north of 99.9%) even without ICU or other heightened elements of medical care\*\*, right or wrong (_based on what we know today_)? > > \*\*\* what I mean by that is “yes” to a private hospital room, doctors and nurses dressing like normal and administering IVs and oral medications like normal … and “no” to ICU, haz-mat suits, elbow-length latex gloves, etc.\* > > … > > Is it that the risk of spread is an immense deal, but the illness itself is not an immense deal per individual given baseline medical care? I guess I just don’t understand. To my limited understanding: For those who have gotten sickest and died [the course](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext) (this from the first cohort of patients) has generally been the development of something called Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) with some progressing to multiple organ failure. Superimposed bacterial pneumonias and sepsis occurred sometimes but were treatable. The ARDS is harder to do too much about wherever you are. Specific mechanical ventilation techniques can often handle the lung aspect itself (but it is a long slog) but does not prevent the multiple organ failure and that is what generally kills even in the best staffed best equipped institutions. Of note influenza also can trigger ARDS. Deaths from superimposed bacterial pneumonias and low oxygen can often be prevented in a well staffed well equipped modern hospital. But some percent of those with influenza will get that ARDS to multiple organ failure outcome no matter where they are treated and some percent of those with 2019-nCoV will. We really don’t yet have a real handle on what that percent for 2019-nCoV is yet, or what it would be as the virus spreads. It clearly would be non-zero, and is likely less than the current mortality rate seen so far outside of Hubei. Compared to influenza? Not yet known but the case fatality rate outside of Hubei is, so far, still well above the case fatality rate for seasonal influenza. The hope is that we never get a real chance to find out because it contained too quickly for a definitive answer to be determined. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=20)