# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/121 "2020-01-26T05:46:40Z")
The next big milestone in China is post Chinese New Year. Jan 31 is the first official work day. Factories tend to open ~3 Feb. 1. How long will the transportation lock down be enforced in Wuhan? 2. There is always a roughly 25% turnover rate among factory workers that don’t come back after Chinese New Year 3. Will migrant workers return to the Wuhan area? What about other areas? 4. Does the coronavirus spread to other major metropolitan areas and/or transportation gets shut down further? 5. Does the transmission vector become more clear? IE, is it only infectious when there is a fever, how infectious is it, are there “super shedders”, or can serious handwashing/mask wearing dramatically reduce the transmission? A lesson from SARS is that factories screen employees entering and exiting the factory (minimum 2x/day), and if one has a fever then it is into formal and/or informal quarantine. Office workers work from home. Those that must go into the office tend to go in shifts, so that if one shift has a temperature, then they get quarantined but the rest can still work. Management tends to have a morning and evening checkpoint. Everyone understands that this is a deadly virus, and treat it with utmost seriousness. Trying hard to phrase this correctly. Amongst all other factors, it is in the Chinese Government’s best interest to 1) keep the export machine running without interruption, and 2) be viewed by the general population as solving the problem. There is no leeway for a massive cover up or denial of the challenge. Keep in mind that since SARS in 2003, [China’s GDP has increased 6-8 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China), smart phones have become ubiquitous, and Weibo and WeChat have let the communication genie out of the bottle. It’s a huge difference from when I was in Shanghai during SARS, and a different world from the Great Leap in the 1950’s. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/122 "2020-01-26T06:39:49Z")
[1975 infections; 56 dead now](https://apnews.com/6e3165077bc60bd14f2c2d031c2e6272). > [@](#): > > Medical workers in Wuhan have been among those infected and local media reported a doctor died on Saturday morning. The 62-year-old physician worked at the ear, nose and throat department at Hubei Xinhua Hospital. He was hospitalized on Jan. 18 and died a week later. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/123 "2020-01-26T08:05:04Z")
I found [this interesting Channel 4 interview with an Irish teacher living (and quarantined) in Wuhan](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg925coC5sc) (7 minutes long). TL; DW: he’s trapped and he understands that. He describes (and video shows) that the streets of this city of over 11 million people are totally deserted. Shops are closed. All of them. There are no vehicles on the streets, and no people to not see them. He describes it as bizarre, like being in some dystopian movie and indeed, it looks like one. The first thing I thought of was the footage in _28 Days Later_ right after Jim wakes up from his coma. This certainly appears to be scary, serious stuff going on. “Interesting times” indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/124 "2020-01-26T08:57:38Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Or it could become more serious. > IANAVirologist, but AIUI, as it’s a virus that has presumably only recently mutated to become transmissible to humans, and transmissible between humans, it may be on the cusp of another mutation that would make it more severe or more contagious. > So it makes sense to very closely monitor novel viruses like this. To some extent all of the above is true influenza, as it mutates so readily. Flu is also monitored, of course, but again flu is a much more known quantity. It can certainly turn into a deadly pandemic, and has, but usually doesn’t get _that_ bad. We’re still in early days with the Wuhan virus, but all indications we are looking at a death rate of around 3% - the stats in post 122 come out to 2.8%. As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That’s almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/125 "2020-01-26T11:19:21Z")
I don’t want to sound too paranoid although the notion is interesting to think about. There are reports of biological warfare laboratories in Wuhan or close by that some have posited this virus could have escaped from such a facility. We all remember reading/watching The Stand right? [https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/) ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/126 "2020-01-26T12:41:31Z")
I seem to recall hearing that China has a biosafety level 4 lab in the area. Is that a “biological warfare laboratory” or a research facility like our CDC? Which doesn’t eliminate the possibility of an escape, but not all labs are sinister ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/127 "2020-01-26T14:47:17Z")
Where I live we hear a lot of rumors via Facebook or grapevine. There’s a general perception that the government tends to suppress unpleasant news; and indeed when I Search for “coronavirus Thailand” on Google news I get two-day old stories. Airport arrivees were being tested, but I’m told that that testing has been suspended. :eek: Through the grapevine I hear that Thailand has the 2nd-most cases of any country! Is this true?? There’s a feverish patient (whose home is 20+ miles from mine) recently returned from China being tested right now. My vague impression is that this virus is spreading much faster than the SARS coronavirus that scared the world back in 2003. Is that correct? The government here is not noted for astute problem-solving. Last week Bangkok had severe smog; the P.M. announced that the government was blameless and blamed the smog on ordinary citizens! ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/128 "2020-01-26T14:53:38Z")
> [@pool](#): > > I don’t want to sound too paranoid although the notion is interesting to think about. There are reports of biological warfare laboratories in Wuhan or close by that some have posited this virus could have escaped from such a facility… No matter how evil you think the PRC Government is, trying to weaponize a coronavirus is too stupid to be plausible … I hope. Next up in my movie-watching queue: _Contagion_ with Matt Damon and Gwyneth Paltrow! :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/129 "2020-01-26T15:00:05Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > To some extent all of the above is true influenza, as it mutates so readily. Flu is also monitored, of course, but again flu is a much more known quantity. It can certainly turn into a deadly pandemic, and has, but usually doesn’t get _that_ bad. > > We’re still in early days with the Wuhan virus, but all indications we are looking at a death rate of around 3% - the stats in post 122 come out to 2.8%. As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That’s almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news. But what I’m getting at, is that this is a new-to-humans virus, and while it’s true that any viral or bacterial infection can mutate in any way at any time, there’s an increased risk of increased severity from novel pathogens. Apparently the first 3 months are a critical period. Again, I’m not a virologist, but the way I would understand it is this: Imagine influenza binds or enters cells using method A, and this new coronavirus uses method B. Method A has been mutating for many years and hit a kind of equilibrium where, yes, it mutates such that it can resist the last season’s antibodies but significant gains in commutability or mortality require a more fundamental / structural change. Meanwhile method B is novel; and the Wuhan virus has only just gained the mutations required to be transmissible between humans; the full potential of method B in humans may not have been realized yet, and might require just a couple more mutations. If it sounds like I’m for some reason rooting for such a prospect, bear in mind I live a couple provinces over from Wuhan. Not only am I worried about myself and the people around me, but life sucks here right now – the streets are deserted. I hoping very much for it to be over quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/130 "2020-01-26T15:18:34Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > My vague impression is that this virus is spreading much faster than the SARS coronavirus that scared the world back in 2003. Is that correct? Latest I’ve heard is that it MIGHT be that this virus is contagious before symptoms show up, which could account for the spread. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/131 "2020-01-26T15:56:27Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > … As of yet, I have not seen morbidity information - are there any lingering effects? That’s almost as important as overall death rates. Hidden in the doom mongering is that people have recovered from this illness, which is of course good news. Yes … and of _significant concern_ to its spread. On the one hand it is [good news](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2000929) that “2019-nCoV may be less pathogenic than MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV” but that also makes _containing_ it more difficult. > [@](#): > > If infection does not cause serious disease, infected people probably will not end up in health care centers. Instead, they will go to work and travel, thereby potentially spreading the virus to their contacts, possibly even internationally. Whether subclinical or mild disease from 2019-nCoV is also associated with a reduced risk of virus spread remains to be determined. … > > … We currently do not know where 2019-nCoV falls on the scale of human-to-human transmissibility. But it is safe to assume that if this virus transmits efficiently, its seemingly lower pathogenicity as compared with SARS, possibly combined with super-spreader events in specific cases, could allow large-scale spread. In this manner, a virus that poses a low health threat on the individual level can pose a high risk on the population level, with the potential to cause disruptions of global public health systems and economic losses. This possibility warrants the current aggressive response aimed at tracing and diagnosing every infected patient and thereby breaking the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV. We do know that it can cause mild and even [asymptomatic](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext) infections. This was a family cluster: > [@](#): > > …For the two asymptomatic children (patients 5 and 6), patient 5 had ground-glass lung opacities identified by CT scan. … Notably, patients 3 and 4 were afebrile at presentation to our hospital. These cryptic cases of walking pneumonia might serve as a possible source to propagate the outbreak. Further studies on the epidemiological significance of these asymptomatic cases are warranted. > > The symptoms of this novel pneumonia were also non-specific. The three oldest patients in this family with comorbidities had more severe systemic symptoms of generalised weakness and dry cough. … the two younger adults (patients 3 and 4) initially had diarrhoea … > > … as shown in this study, it is still crucial to isolate patients and trace and quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible We have no idea how many of those asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are out there, or how contagious they are. They might not be contagious at all. Or they might be moderately contagious. The worst case for its spreading far would be its usually causing mild to no disease in healthy kids, who tend to spray infection all around them. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/132 "2020-01-26T16:15:48Z")
Are other viruses spread before symptoms show up? ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@Charlie\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/133 "2020-01-26T16:19:58Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > No matter how evil you think the PRC Government is, trying to weaponize a coronavirus is too stupid to be plausible … I hope. > > Next up in my movie-watching queue: _Contagion_ with Matt Damon and Gwyneth Paltrow! :eek: OMG! I am reminded of two events and I hope they are not related. Event 1 The first was when the NK govt allegedly sent some agents to deal with the step-brother or brother-in-law of the dear leader and two female Japanese were duped into believing they were participating in one of those game shows where a practical joke was played on someone. Long story short … they rubbed some deadly virus into the face of the relative and he died a horrible death. It happened at some airport in an Asian country I believe. Event 2 The NK dear leader was unhappy at the USA leadership and said words to the effect, “we are planning a big surprise in the new year.” Does anyone else remember these two events? If so, what are the odds they may be related? Here is a link to the news story of Event 1. > **[Assassination of Kim Jong-nam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Kim_Jong-nam)** > > On 13 February 2017, Kim Jong-nam, the older half-brother of the dictator of North Korea Kim Jong Un, was assassinated at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. He had been living abroad since his exile from North Korea in 2003. > Following his visit to the resort island Langkawi, Kim Jong-nam arrived at terminal 2 sometime before 9:00 a.m. to take a 10:50 a.m. AirAsia flight to Macau. At approximately 9:00 a.m., two women assassinated Kim Jong-nam with the VX nerve agent. He died a... Here is a link to Event 2. > **[North Korea Promises A Christmas Surprise. Here Are The Options](https://www.npr.org/2019/12/23/790173649/north-korea-promises-a-christmas-surprise-here-are-the-options)** > > With the holiday just days away and no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough in sight, here are what experts say are the possibilities for North Korea's "Christmas gift." ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@Charlie\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/134 "2020-01-26T16:34:55Z")
Re my above post. The virus used in the above example could not be the same as the coronavirus. I just wonder if something, somehow could have gone wrong and if there is some relation between the coronavirus and those events. The assassination was not particularly recent. It occurred in 2017. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/135 "2020-01-26T16:38:48Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Are other viruses spread before symptoms show up? Of course. A little thing called HIV, for example. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/136 "2020-01-26T17:46:42Z")
Sticking just with the coronavirus family, most of which cause common colds and sore throats, yes, for most of the family usually the period of contagiousness begins a day or so before symptomatic infection and is greatest the first three to four days of illness. In general “cold viruses” like those of the coronavirus family (and even more commonly rhinoviruses) can be spread by those who have “subclinical” infections - i.e. those who are asymptomatic or at least only minimally symptomatic - but less so than those with more symptoms. Usually this family spreads by close contact and is less easily transmissible than say influenza is. [Confirmed.](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health) > [@](#): > > China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday that the new coronavirus is contagious even in its incubation period, which lasts up to 14 days … ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/137 "2020-01-26T17:51:40Z")
[3rd US case; in California this time.](https://apnews.com/c482d489c4e3cca2f5b549386f666e3a) [China temporarily bans wildlife trade in wake of outbreak](https://apnews.com/d59f43a911996a729cdf8636f5aa4ce4). ---
**Author:** ![carrps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carrps/32/2957_2.png) [@carrps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carrps)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/138 "2020-01-26T18:09:32Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Are there vaccines for coronavirii? I don’t recall that one was ever crafted for the coronavirus that caused SARS. As I see in this [2009 Medscape article](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_11) detailing the then state of the art in developing one. Or in this [Medline blurb in 2016](https://www.healthline.com/health/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-sars). Did the disease burn out and industry just said, “Fuck it.”? Are there difficulties in adapting a killed-virus vaccine model to coronaviruses? (coronavirii? I didn’t take Latin…) > > I do see that [Inovio just got a grant to make a DNA-based vaccine.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmakers-rush-to-develop-vaccines-against-china-virus-11579813026) What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused _severe_ side effects…like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)…which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can’t remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase “cascade of effects” that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/139 "2020-01-26T18:33:19Z")
There is also the limitation that immunity even to natural disease is very short-lived for the family, lasting only about four months, and that the family is prone to rapid changes. RNA viruses like the coronavirus family mutate rapidly. Both those features make effective immunization programs very very hard to succeed in. Here’s the thing in that though: rapid mutation rates means that those variants that spread the the fastest quickly outcompete those who do not, and those that cause milder/benign disease are much more successful at spreading themselves than those that lay patients up or kill them rapidly. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/140 "2020-01-26T18:39:00Z")
I contacted the CDC via email to see if they were interested in testing me. I still have some hearing loss I’m attributing to 6 flights with an acute URI. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=8)