# Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841 "2020-01-23T12:42:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/141 "2020-01-26T19:16:14Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Has any _reputable_ organization made that claim? Not fucking hearsay from “secret sources”? Since everything I have read about it suggests that the Chinese Government has been as forthcoming with the information they have. I mean it took several days for them to i)identify this as a virus that ii)could spread to humans. This takes time. Its not like they could get revelations on it from the Almighty. > :rolleyes: the Chinese government has a long track record of controlling information as they see fit. So, yes, there is concern regarding the flow of information. That they have announced what’s going on isn’t a deviation of their policy of controlling information. It’s just an acknowledgment that you can’t hide the closure of airports and train stations and a mass influx of patients clogging up hospitals. The information can’t be hidden. the advantage of this happening in an authoritarian nation is that leaders can snap their fingers and do whatever they want to stop the disease from spreading. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/142 "2020-01-26T20:04:21Z")
> [@Charlie\_Wayne](#): > > OMG! > > I am reminded of two events and I hope they are not related. > > Event 1 > The first was when the NK govt allegedly sent some agents to deal with the step-brother or brother-in-law of the dear leader and two female Japanese were duped into believing they were participating in one of those game shows where a practical joke was played on someone. Long story short … they rubbed some deadly virus into the face of the relative and he died a horrible death. It happened at some airport in an Asian country I believe. You are misinformed. They did not rub his face with a virus. They rubbed his face with a military grade nerve gas. Completely unrelated > [@carrps](#): > > What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused _severe_ side effects…like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)…which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can’t remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase “cascade of effects” that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started. I think the vaccine had a tendency to precipitate a [cytokine cascade or cytokine storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome). Which, yeah, can certainly be fatal in and of itself. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/143 "2020-01-26T20:27:35Z")
Magiver, the chinese government has publicly been releasing information since late Dec. Or about a month before shutting down some transportation. I suspect shutting down transportation had more to do with Chinese new year and the largest mass migration that takes place annually than if there were no new years travel by hundreds of millions of people, and large gatherings of more than a billion people. The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP, as well as impact the export export machine that also legitimizes the government. Anything else is trending into conspiracy territory ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/144 "2020-01-26T20:28:39Z")
Magiver, the chinese government has publicly been releasing information since late Dec. Or about a month before shutting down some transportation. I suspect shutting down transportation had more to do with Chinese new year and the largest mass migration that takes place annually than if there were no new years travel by hundreds of millions of people, and large gatherings of more than a billion people. The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP, as well as impact the export export machine that also legitimizes the government. Anything else is trending into conspiracy territory ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@Charlie\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/145 "2020-01-26T20:30:24Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > You are misinformed. They did not rub his face with a virus. They rubbed his face with a military grade nerve gas. Completely unrelated I didn’t remember which kind of deadly poison it was. I recall that it was some liquid they soaked a cloth or handkerchief and then rubbed that all over his face. They thought they were playing some kind of practical joke. But he then died a most painful - even excrutiating - death. He was related to the dear leader of NK and as I recall, the leader either feared he would attempt a coup or was angered with him and felt he had the right to murder him. He may well have had the right - but not outside of his country. I believe it happened at some Asian airport and I don’t believe anyone was ever brought to justice for that murder. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/146 "2020-01-26T21:49:38Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > The government undoubtedly controls information, but is this case where the obvious explanation is to be as transparent as possible into to prevent mass hysteria that could directly threaten the rule of the CCP Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up. There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It’s a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/147 "2020-01-26T22:26:11Z")
[Five cases in the US now.](https://apnews.com/c482d489c4e3cca2f5b549386f666e3a) > [@](#): > > The U.S. has five confirmed cases of the new virus from China, all of whom traveled to the city that is the center of the outbreak, health officials said Sunday. > > Two new cases were reported Sunday — one in Los Angeles County in California and the other in Maricopa County, Arizona. The others were a patient in Orange County, California, who was in isolation at a hospital and in good condition; a man in his 30s in Washington state; and a woman in her 60s from Chicago. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/148 "2020-01-26T22:52:05Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up. > > There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It’s a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media. Magiver, you might be missing my point. We are in agreement that the Chinese government has a heavy handed control of the media, although one could argue the degree. In this instance, controlling the outbreak as well as spinning the perception is unquestionably in the best interest of the Government and CCP. Anything else simply doesn’t make sense and is conspiracy theory territory. Which is to say that China and the world is aligned on getting thru this crisis as quickly and effectively as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/149 "2020-01-26T22:54:57Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Anything that threatens the rule of the CCP about sums it up. > > There is no conspiracy theory behind their heavy handed control of what the public is allowed to know. It’s a fact. Regardless of what information they provide it will always be tainted by their control of the media. \ Hate to do “whataboutism”, but the current US administration is hardly a trusted source now either. So let’s do it case by case. And in this case, most international observers agree that the government has moved quickly and been very forthcoming. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/150 "2020-01-26T23:38:46Z")
> [@carrps](#): > > What I read recently about the SARS vaccine was that it caused _severe_ side effects…like the side effects killed the test subjects (ie. animals)…which kind of defeats the purpose of the vaccine. Can’t remember where I read it, but I remember the phrase “cascade of effects” that described the process that killed the vaccinated animals. Further testing on human subjects was stopped before it started. I was wondering why work seemingly ceased. My brief research looking at papers on the subject indicated that one trial in primates resulted in severe pulmonary issues, presumably above and beyond that caused by the bug. A coronavirus sounds like many other biological weapons: long incubation period, with asymptomatic carriers able to spread the disease; decent R0 somewhere above 2; mortality rate in the lower teens, according to the study I cited on the last page. Doesn’t mean this bug is one, of course. I guess what has people spooked about this is two-fold: first, the actions of the Chinese government do not match a government concerned about a disease less virulent than the flu. Second, if China is materially affected, what is this going to do to all of the rest of the countries in the world that are dependent on Chinese finished goods and raw materials? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2020, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/151 "2020-01-26T23:59:01Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > \ > > Hate to do “whataboutism”, but the current US administration is hardly a trusted source now either. > So let’s do it case by case. > And in this case, most international observers agree that the government has moved quickly and been very forthcoming. The US has a free press so the source of information is independent of the government. It’s based on the very first amendment which is considered the foundation of all other amendments that follow. No administration controls the press. China controls the flow of information at their discretion. International observers are allowed to see what China allows them to see. Any validation from their observations is limited to that process. It could be accurate. Or not. I’m not sure what your point is. Mine is a simple observation that China controls the flow of information and therefore we have no way of verifying the accuracy of coming from a non-independent media. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/152 "2020-01-27T00:56:41Z")
> [@](#): > > About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days. > > Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared. > **[Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn)** > > UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/153 "2020-01-27T01:54:10Z")
[80 dead now; 2,744 confirmed infections](https://apnews.com/6e3165077bc60bd14f2c2d031c2e6272). ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/154 "2020-01-27T02:05:41Z")
> [@](#): > > [The Mayor] Mr. Zhou also said that five million people had left Wuhan before travel out of the city was restricted, leaving nine million people still living there. > **[More U.S. Coronavirus Cases Emerge, as China’s Death Toll Rises (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/china-coronavirus.html?emc=rss&partner=rss)** > > The number of dead climbed to at least 80, while in the United States, five cases were confirmed. Well, there’s nothing like locking the barn door after the horse has bolted. Seriously, I was thinking several hundred thousand had left–not five million. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/155 "2020-01-27T02:12:07Z")
At the current rate of infectious expansion, we could see over 350,000 infected two weeks from today. Possibly over 10,000 dead. Or have I done the math wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/156 "2020-01-27T02:54:22Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [80 dead now; 2,744 confirmed infections](https://apnews.com/6e3165077bc60bd14f2c2d031c2e6272). So… fatality rates are still running about 3%… > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > At the current rate of infectious expansion, we could see over 350,000 infected two weeks from today. Possibly over 10,000 dead. > > Or have I done the math wrong? Nope, you have the math more or less correct. That’s still about a 3% mortality rate. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/157 "2020-01-27T03:24:53Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > So… fatality rates are still running about 3%… > Nope, you have the math more or less correct. That’s still about a 3% mortality rate. At some point 3% turns into a lot of people doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/158 "2020-01-27T03:37:39Z")
More than 50 million people in at least 17 cities quarantined in China now. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/159 "2020-01-27T03:53:13Z")
suspected case here in NC turned out to be something else ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2020, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841/160 "2020-01-27T03:54:42Z")
> [@pool](#): > > At some point 3% turns into a lot of people doesn’t it? Or Professor Ferguson is roughly correct and the true number of cases is up to 50 times the number currently labeled as such due to undiagnosed mild and subclinical infections. With actual mortality rate more like 0.06%. But hard to contain. At some point 0.06% is a lot of people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-else-concerned-with-this-new-virus-in-china-that-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-every-day/846841.md?page=9)