# Is anyone planning to get completely out of the stock market before Oct 17? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 9, 2013, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785 "2013-10-09T16:49:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/41 "2013-10-13T15:47:01Z")
> [@bump](#): > > People don’t understand what an investment really is. You hear this kind of thing all the time when they talk about their “investment” in their car or computer or whatever other thing they’ve poured a bunch of money in. > > It’s only an investment if you expect to earn a return on it. Otherwise it’s what amounts to plant, property and equipment at your house, and ultimately ends up as an expense in some fashion. In macro terms, investing _is_ the manufacture of buildings, machines, equipment, etc. that last a long time. Stock markets, gold markets, pork belly markets - all that is is people trading money back and forth. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/42 "2013-10-13T18:41:13Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > Trying not to be rude here, bit the implicit assumption is you’re entitled to money for doing nothing. Why is that? Oh God, not this again. There was [a recent thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=696284&highlight=%22stand%22) that went into this in nauseating detail at your behest. I’d have thought you’d have got it there. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/43 "2013-10-13T19:48:43Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > In macro terms, investing _is_ the manufacture of buildings, machines, equipment, etc. that last a long time. Stock markets, gold markets, pork belly markets - all that is is people trading money back and forth. That’s true on an individual level too, but what you’re leaving out is that that capital has to be put into service in such a way that there’s a possibility of it making money. Someone who “invests” in a computer on which they do freelance Web design is making an investment. Someone who “invests” in a truck they haul firewood around in for profit is making an investment. What \*\*bump \*\*said is exactly the same as what you tried to restate on a “macro level.” What’s not an investment is buying a computer to play video games or a new truck because it has awesome plastic balls hanging from it. And for the record, a pretty high proportion of people who invest in equipment in hopes of making it a profitable side business are probably going to fail, but if they bought it with the intention of using the equipment to make money they’re “investing” the way you and \*\*bump \*\*both described, and the same way a mining conglomerate invests in a giant gold mine and hundreds of millions of dollars of mining equipment… ---
**Author:** ![Superhal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Superhal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superhal)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/44 "2013-10-13T21:29:05Z")
Yes, but only 20% of my portfolio is in stocks anyway. ---
**Author:** ![LavenderBlue](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e95f7d/32.png) [@LavenderBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LavenderBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/45 "2013-10-13T21:50:13Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > Trying not to be rude here, bit the implicit assumption is you’re entitled to money for doing nothing. Why is that? I’m just trying to have a few nice years of retirement after working my fucking ass off for decades. I got my first job at sixteen and have had at least a part-time job since I was nineteen. Much the same is true of my husband who has also worked his fucking ass off. I’m scheduled to work about 200 hours this month alone. My plan is to retire by 65 a few years after my slightly older husband (who also works full time) does so. If this a problem for you well :rolleyes:. Or should I just work 200 hours a month for the rest of my life until I drop dead? Investing is not doing nothing. It involves a great deal of research on our part and sensible planning as well as a bit of risk taking. We only have the money to invest in the first place because we work hard, live below our means and save a considerable sum of our take home pay. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/46 "2013-10-13T23:20:40Z")
The answer to this question, from what I understand, depends on a few things: 1. How long until you expect to retire? 2. Do you think the stock market will stay low/lower throughout that entire time? Do you honestly foresee some kind of permanent institutional crash? 3. Are you planning to go back into the market at all, ever? If so, are you sure you know WHEN to get back in? Because I’m still 20+ years away, and if there’s an institutional crash, I’m screwed anyway, I’m not doing anything with my investments right now. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/47 "2013-10-14T03:46:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > If anyone wants good success timing the markets, just watch me and do the opposite. > > I’d intended to reduce equity position for a long while but had been procrastinating [del]due to apathy[/del] [del]because I was wasting all my spare time on message boards[/del] preferring to just “smell the roses” instead. The crisis finally prodded me to act on 9 October, selling some stocks and buying a “hard currency hedge.” > > October 10-11 was the best stock upsurge in quite a while. :smack: The only consolation is that, knowing my timing is dreadful, my Wednesday move wasn’t too big. > > Now I don’t know whether to hope next week brings back the halcyon days of bipartisan cooperation and political sanity. … Or to hope Boehner and company drive the market back below the June bottom so I don’t feel so bad. :rolleyes: I don’t know about you, but my getting fully into cash was not because I was hoping that the market would tank and I would pick some stocks up cheap. It was because I thought the downside risk was higher than upside risk. If I am wrong, I will miss some of the runup, since I will get back in late. But it makes me sleep better right now. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/48 "2013-10-23T11:29:47Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I don’t know about you, but my getting fully into cash was not because I was hoping that the market would tank and I would pick some stocks up cheap. It was because I thought the downside risk was higher than upside risk. If I am wrong, I will miss some of the runup, since I will get back in late. But it makes me sleep better right now. How’s that workin’ out for you? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/49 "2013-10-23T14:40:28Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > How’s that workin’ out for you? 😃 It is actually working out pretty well. I am still mostly in cash, and have been shorting things here and there on runups. Like SFUN and XONE. Right now it feels better to do that. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/50 "2013-10-23T16:08:26Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > It is actually working out pretty well. I am still mostly in cash, and have been shorting things here and there on runups. Like SFUN and XONE. Right now it feels better to do that. So you still think the downside risk outweighs the upside risk? Over what period; six months, a year? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/51 "2013-10-23T16:50:43Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So you still think the downside risk outweighs the upside risk? Over what period; six months, a year? Short term the market feels toppy and needs a correction. Long term, I have no idea. Too many things that can happen. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/52 "2013-10-23T16:55:05Z")
I am absolutely sure that long term, the market will be higher than today. Is that really in doubt? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2013, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785/53 "2013-10-23T17:01:23Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I am absolutely sure that long term, the market will be higher than today. Is that really in doubt? Depends on how long the long term is. For the way I trade, short term is a month. Long term is a year. For some people short term is next 10 minutes and long term is the day. It depends on the trading style. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-anyone-planning-to-get-completely-out-of-the-stock-market-before-oct-17/670785.md?page=2)