In macro terms, investing is the manufacture of buildings, machines, equipment, etc. that last a long time. Stock markets, gold markets, pork belly markets - all that is is people trading money back and forth.
Oh God, not this again. There was a recent thread that went into this in nauseating detail at your behest.
I’d have thought you’d have got it there.
That’s true on an individual level too, but what you’re leaving out is that that capital has to be put into service in such a way that there’s a possibility of it making money.
Someone who “invests” in a computer on which they do freelance Web design is making an investment. Someone who “invests” in a truck they haul firewood around in for profit is making an investment.
What **bump **said is exactly the same as what you tried to restate on a “macro level.” What’s not an investment is buying a computer to play video games or a new truck because it has awesome plastic balls hanging from it.
And for the record, a pretty high proportion of people who invest in equipment in hopes of making it a profitable side business are probably going to fail, but if they bought it with the intention of using the equipment to make money they’re “investing” the way you and **bump **both described, and the same way a mining conglomerate invests in a giant gold mine and hundreds of millions of dollars of mining equipment…
Yes, but only 20% of my portfolio is in stocks anyway.
I’m just trying to have a few nice years of retirement after working my fucking ass off for decades. I got my first job at sixteen and have had at least a part-time job since I was nineteen. Much the same is true of my husband who has also worked his fucking ass off. I’m scheduled to work about 200 hours this month alone. My plan is to retire by 65 a few years after my slightly older husband (who also works full time) does so. If this a problem for you well :rolleyes:. Or should I just work 200 hours a month for the rest of my life until I drop dead?
Investing is not doing nothing. It involves a great deal of research on our part and sensible planning as well as a bit of risk taking. We only have the money to invest in the first place because we work hard, live below our means and save a considerable sum of our take home pay.
The answer to this question, from what I understand, depends on a few things:
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How long until you expect to retire?
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Do you think the stock market will stay low/lower throughout that entire time? Do you honestly foresee some kind of permanent institutional crash?
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Are you planning to go back into the market at all, ever? If so, are you sure you know WHEN to get back in?
Because I’m still 20+ years away, and if there’s an institutional crash, I’m screwed anyway, I’m not doing anything with my investments right now.
I don’t know about you, but my getting fully into cash was not because I was hoping that the market would tank and I would pick some stocks up cheap. It was because I thought the downside risk was higher than upside risk. If I am wrong, I will miss some of the runup, since I will get back in late. But it makes me sleep better right now.
How’s that workin’ out for you? 
It is actually working out pretty well. I am still mostly in cash, and have been shorting things here and there on runups. Like SFUN and XONE. Right now it feels better to do that.
So you still think the downside risk outweighs the upside risk? Over what period; six months, a year?
Short term the market feels toppy and needs a correction. Long term, I have no idea. Too many things that can happen.
I am absolutely sure that long term, the market will be higher than today. Is that really in doubt?
Depends on how long the long term is. For the way I trade, short term is a month. Long term is a year. For some people short term is next 10 minutes and long term is the day. It depends on the trading style.