# Is Bernie Sanders the Democratic Front-Runner for 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 13, 2017, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190 "2017-07-13T18:52:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/21 "2017-07-13T20:53:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, hopefully the Dem establishment will run Hitler’s clone against him so he has a chance next time. > > But seriously, those are easily explained with non-election reasons. He published a book to cash in on his post-election name recognition and when you publish a book you go on the talk circuit. It’s blather analysis to think this points to a presidential run. Frankly, I’d be shocked if Bernie ran again. I just don’t see it. And the idea that Chelsea might run (as someone implied upthread) is just nonsense. I could maybe see Mark Cuban try, but not The Rock or Oprah, and if either did, they’d have their personal lives torn to pieces. The irony of having someone with the last name “Cuba” run for US president would be worth the price of admission just there! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/22 "2017-07-13T21:07:51Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, hopefully the Dem establishment will run Hitler’s clone against him so he has a chance next time. > > But seriously, those are easily explained with non-election reasons. He published a book to cash in on his post-election name recognition and when you publish a book you go on the talk circuit. It’s blather analysis to think this points to a presidential run. [Maybe he just really likes Des Moines.](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/17/bernie-sanders-return-iowa-july/100575426/) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/23 "2017-07-13T21:08:10Z")
Frankly, for everyone who thought the media was in the bag for Hillary, I’d love to see an Oprah run. Then you’d see some haters walking on broken glass. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/24 "2017-07-13T21:09:40Z")
True, Chelsea might put time in at the House or the Senate first before running for president. She is rumoured to run for Gillibrand’s seat if Gillibrand runs for president herself in 2020. Her mother’s Senate seat- Clinton fans would just eat that shit up. And really, is there a better person that can represent the modern Democratic party right now? This person whose idea of work is showing up at the Clinton foundation a couple times a week & writing preachy childrens’ books, who married a Goldmann Sachs stooge, & who spends her free time concern trolling & checking peoples’ privilege on social media? Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/25 "2017-07-13T21:13:04Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > [Maybe he just really likes Des Moines.](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/17/bernie-sanders-return-iowa-july/100575426/) From your article: > [@](#): > > Sanders narrowly lost Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses in February, 2016, demonstrating his appeal among the Democratic base Lol. I wonder what a narrow win could have meant. When’s the next World Emperor election? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/26 "2017-07-13T21:44:43Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > That’s basically Hillary Clinton, though. Look how that turned out? Also: Don’t nominate a crook. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/27 "2017-07-13T23:10:19Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Also: Don’t nominate a crook. We didn’t the last time. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/28 "2017-07-13T23:21:18Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Ultimately the voters decide, but this [reference to superdelegates in the snipped part] is still a problem. > > _ **plenty of snipped bits** _ > … can’t we find a popular progressive who hasn’t passed what most people think of as retirement age? > > _ **even more snipped** _ > Biden and Warren are almost as old as Sanders and don’t have comparable progressive credentials. His progressive credentials are one of the problems if he wants to win the Democratic nomination. That’s a minority inside the Democratic and Democratic leaning independents who vote in the primaries to decide the nominee. The closest proxy in polling is probably the political ideology question (liberal, moderate, or conservative.) While the numbers of Democrats that identify as liberal has been increasing in polls PEW has done during the [2000-105 period](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/09/democratic-voters-increasingly-embrace-liberal-label/) it’s still a minority . Only 42% identify as liberal while 55% combined identify as moderate (38%) or conservative (17%) in 2015 with the other 3% not answering/undecided. That pretty closely mirrors the results of the 2016 primary popular vote. Sanders got 43.1 to Clinton’s 55.2%. That’s a strong starting position if you can build on that to steal some of the moderate voters with compromises/slight moves to the right. That compromise is the thing that has seemed to cost Warren some of her credentials with progressive voters, though. I don’t know if Sanders is willing to do that in order to win a two way race against someone who’s positions fall more in line with Biden, the Clintons, Obama, etc. He certainly hasn’t looked like he would be willing to. He’d have to be concerned about it affecting turnout among the more progressive aspects of his supporting voters. There’s certainly possibilities to try and thread the needle by emphasizing/de-emphasizing different pieces of the agenda. It’s still a tough road to try and turn mid 40s for a natural base into a nomination with proportional delegate allocation. The Democratic party as a whole just isn’t particularly progressive. Democratic voters tend to favor that boring center-left moderate because that’s closest to what their personal politics are. Like you said the voters ultimately decide. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2017, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/29 "2017-07-13T23:29:08Z")
Preview for the next Dem primaries. Cory Booker: [I have concerns about corporate consolidation in general but I love my local Newark Whole Foods store and believe it will only get better.](https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/884216022177386496) Chelsea Clinton: Anyone who doesn’t support invading Syria is a stooge for Putin and Assad. George Clooney: _waggles eyebrows_ Mark Zuckerberg: A UBI in every pot, and a camera in every house. Bernie Sanders: _cackles dialectically_ ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/30 "2017-07-14T00:41:23Z")
Right now I’m more concerned about the 2018 elections. Sanders is up for re-election but I doubt he’s in trouble in Vermont. Although he’s not a Democrat, does he have any plans to support Democrats in other races around the country? His popularity might give some a valuable boost. Just a thought. Here in Texas we’ve got a Governor & Lt Gov who really need to go And Ted Cruz already has a Democratic opponent. First thoughts about 2020. Nope, Bernie would be too old. Chelsea? Let her start her political career if she wants & we’ll see how she does. [https://www.betofortexas.com/](https://www.betofortexas.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/31 "2017-07-14T00:53:09Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > His progressive credentials are one of the problems if he wants to win the Democratic nomination. That’s a minority inside the Democratic and Democratic leaning independents who vote in the primaries to decide the nominee. > > The closest proxy in polling is probably the political ideology question (liberal, moderate, or conservative.) While the numbers of Democrats that identify as liberal has been increasing in polls PEW has done during the [2000-105 period](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/09/democratic-voters-increasingly-embrace-liberal-label/) it’s still a minority . Only 42% identify as liberal while 55% combined identify as moderate (38%) or conservative (17%) in 2015 with the other 3% not answering/undecided. That pretty closely mirrors the results of the 2016 primary popular vote. Sanders got 43.1 to Clinton’s 55.2%. > > That’s a strong starting position if you can build on that to steal some of the moderate voters with compromises/slight moves to the right. That compromise is the thing that has seemed to cost Warren some of her credentials with progressive voters, though. I don’t know if Sanders is willing to do that in order to win a two way race against someone who’s positions fall more in line with Biden, the Clintons, Obama, etc. He certainly hasn’t looked like he would be willing to. He’d have to be concerned about it affecting turnout among the more progressive aspects of his supporting voters. There’s certainly possibilities to try and thread the needle by emphasizing/de-emphasizing different pieces of the agenda. It’s still a tough road to try and turn mid 40s for a natural base into a nomination with proportional delegate allocation. > > The Democratic party as a whole just isn’t particularly progressive. Democratic voters tend to favor that boring center-left moderate because that’s closest to what their personal politics are. Like you said the voters ultimately decide. Well, as per the Vox article, he does seem to have been downplaying his environmentalism, which doesn’t thrill me personally, but again supports the case that he is preparing to run again. I think this will be a very different race from 2016, when Clinton had basically locked up the support of the entire party elite years before voting started. I think it will look more like the 2016 GOP race, with multiple candidates vying for the “centrist/establishment” lane. In contrast, I doubt any other serious progressive is going to run if Bernie is in the race. If it’s not a two-way race, mid 40s is a very good place to be. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/32 "2017-07-14T00:55:55Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > True, Chelsea might put time in at the House or the Senate first before running for president. She is rumoured to run for Gillibrand’s seat if Gillibrand runs for president herself in 2020. Her mother’s Senate seat- Clinton fans would just eat that shit up. > > And really, is there a better person that can represent the modern Democratic party right now? This person whose idea of work is showing up at the Clinton foundation a couple times a week & writing preachy childrens’ books, who married a Goldmann Sachs stooge, & who spends her free time concern trolling & checking peoples’ privilege on social media? > > Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk …Chelsea Clinton has explicitly and completely denied she is planning on running. > **[Male Journalists Are Mansplaining Politics to Chelsea Clinton on Twitter](https://observer.com/2017/04/chelsea-clinton-twitter-mansplaining/)** > > Male journalists refuse to believe her, however, and are mansplaining a woman with two master’s degrees and a doctorate. So I would suggest you just take her at her word and save the character assassination for another thread. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/33 "2017-07-14T01:05:51Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Right now I’m more concerned about the 2018 elections. Sanders is up for re-election but I doubt he’s in trouble in Vermont. > > Although he’s not a Democrat, does he have any plans to support Democrats in other races around the country? His popularity might give some a valuable boost. Just a thought. Here in Texas we’ve got a Governor & Lt Gov who really need to go And Ted Cruz already has a Democratic opponent. > > First thoughts about 2020. Nope, Bernie would be too old. Chelsea? Let her start her political career if she wants & we’ll see how she does. [https://www.betofortexas.com/](https://www.betofortexas.com/) He did campaign actively for Tom Periello in the Virginia governor’s primary race this spring, which is a generally good thing to do, and also the sort of thing that one does if one plans to run for President. He also campaigned for a candidate for mayor of Omaha (which is, coincidentally, just across the river from Iowa). I would imagine that, especially if he chooses to run again, he will be quite active in the 2018 elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/34 "2017-07-14T01:09:03Z")
Sanders is so old that he has a New York accent that New Yorkers don’t even use anymore. The other problem Nate mentioned was that African-Americans are the democratic party base, and they like the establishment. In the Democratic Party, it’s time for the white liberals to defer to the black establishment, because blacks have shown that THEIR votes are the ones that matter now, both in the primaries and the general election. If they turn out, Democrats win. If they don’t, they lose. What white liberals do in elections really doesn’t matter a whole lot, which is why Bernie is a bad idea. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/35 "2017-07-14T01:25:45Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > Bernie Sanders: _cackles dialectically_ I LOLed. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/36 "2017-07-14T01:35:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sanders is so old that he has a New York accent that New Yorkers don’t even use anymore. > > The other problem Nate mentioned was that African-Americans are the democratic party base, and they like the establishment. In the Democratic Party, it’s time for the white liberals to defer to the black establishment, because blacks have shown that THEIR votes are the ones that matter now, both in the primaries and the general election. If they turn out, Democrats win. If they don’t, they lose. What white liberals do in elections really doesn’t matter a whole lot, which is why Bernie is a bad idea. Sanders has an approval rating of 73% among blacks, who generally hold economic positions very much in line with his. Clearly, blacks really _liked_ Clinton, which I am at a loss to explain, but I haven’t seen any evidence that they _disliked_ Bernie or would have been less likely to turn out for him. And (why am I getting the feeling nobody read the linked article in the OP?) he is clearly making serious moves to increase his support in the black community. So I don’t think your argument holds water, but at least it’s a nice change from the “Hillary lost because the Bernie voters didn’t turn out for her!” trope. And it’s just not a sustainable formula for a political party to depend on getting better than 90% support from any particular demographic group. To the extent that that is the situation Democrats are in, we need to be figuring out how to get out of it. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/37 "2017-07-14T01:38:20Z")
But I certainly agree that it would be ideal to find a candidate with policies similar to Bernie’s, and with the same ability to connect with voters, but who didn’t grow up rooting for the Brooklyn Dodgers. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/38 "2017-07-14T01:41:08Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …Chelsea Clinton has explicitly and completely denied she is planning on running. > > [Chelsea Clinton Denies That She’s Running for Office on Twitter | Observer](http://observer.com/2017/04/chelsea-clinton-twitter-mansplaining/) > > So I would suggest you just take her at her word and save the character assassination for another thread. Thanks, but I rather not a Clinton’s word on anything. She’s being positioned to continue the political dynasty, one way or another. The Vanity Fair cover stories, the morning talk show rounds, the silly childrens’ books inspired by liberal memes & the endless political sloganeering on twitter all point to the obvious. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/39 "2017-07-14T01:46:05Z")
He would have been the best president since LBJ [and I quite like Carter] but he’s too old now, as indeed would be the old reliable disasters Biden and Hillary, and the OK but uninspiring Mrs. Warren. I generally think youngish like JFK and sturdy middle-aged like Obama have the stamina needed. Even the present incumbent sometimes seems a trifle _distrait_. > [@adaher](#): > > The other problem Nate mentioned was that African-Americans are the democratic party base, and they like the establishment. \*Really ? \* Well since native black Americans remain always around 12% of the population that would indicate Democrats are losing the white vote ( and not for racist reasons, just that they unappeal ). ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/40 "2017-07-14T01:48:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sanders is so old that he has a New York accent that New Yorkers don’t even use anymore. > > The other problem Nate mentioned was that African-Americans are the democratic party base, and they like the establishment. In the Democratic Party, it’s time for the white liberals to defer to the black establishment, because blacks have shown that THEIR votes are the ones that matter now, both in the primaries and the general election. If they turn out, Democrats win. If they don’t, they lose. What white liberals do in elections really doesn’t matter a whole lot, which is why Bernie is a bad idea. Yeah, but the flipside of this is that the Democrats apparently can’t win an election without at least 90% support among black voters as well as huge turnout. That’s unsustainable, as we saw last November. Eventually you have to start appealing to new voters, mainly millennials & Independents, who of course had a huge affinity for Sanders. Let’s also not forget that black millennials preferred Sanders over Clinton. If I were in charge of the party, I’d be chasing after this new huge generation of voters instead of the shrinking boomers. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190.md?page=3)