# Is Bernie Sanders the Democratic Front-Runner for 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 13, 2017, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190 "2017-07-13T18:52:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/61 "2017-07-14T03:06:21Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …you just cited the exact same poll. The. Exact. Same. Poll. I’ve linked to the actual poll. Something you have so far failed to do in two attempts. > > You stated Bernie was the most “popular politician.” The poll question included political figures, including people like Stephen Bannon and Kellyanne Conway. > > Would you like to try again? The politifact article includes links to Fox News & HuffPo polls, in addition to the Harvard-Harris poll. All have Sanders with the highest approval rating among current US politicians. That’s three, how many do you want exactly? Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/62 "2017-07-14T03:08:33Z")
Also, why wouldn’t Conway & Bannon be included in polls about influential politicians & party leaders? As disgusting as it is to admit, these are 2 of the most powerful people in the country right now. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/63 "2017-07-14T03:12:46Z")
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating) Here. Compare that to other politicians, who are lucky to break 40% approval usually. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/64 "2017-07-14T03:14:37Z")
It’s interesting to see the steady climb of that trendline. If that keeps up, perhaps Sanders really is the front-runner. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/65 "2017-07-14T03:17:06Z")
He also polls higher than the Democratic party by about 20 points. [![](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170714/8eda58c823c6913e38c1b332471793d3.jpg) ](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170714/8eda58c823c6913e38c1b332471793d3.jpg) Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/66 "2017-07-14T03:18:12Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > The politifact article includes links to Fox News & HuffPo polls, in addition to the Harvard-Harris poll. All have Sanders with the highest approval rating among current US politicians. That’s three, how many do you want exactly? > > Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk …the Fox News poll and the Huffington Post polls didn’t measure popularity, they measured favorability. There is a difference. As politico states: “The polls don’t specifically ask respondents for their favorite politician – they provide a limited list of political figures and ask respondents whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one.” Despite the opinion of the Politco writer I don’t think the polls show Bernie is the most most popular politician in the US. They show that people view him more favourably than other people on the list. > [@](#): > > [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...vorable-rating](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...vorable-rating) > Here. Compare that to other politicians, who are lucky to break 40% approval usually. Favorability. Not popularity. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/67 "2017-07-14T03:25:08Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …the Fox News poll and the Huffington Post polls didn’t measure popularity, they measured favorability. There is a difference. As politico states: > > “The polls don’t specifically ask respondents for their favorite politician – they provide a limited list of political figures and ask respondents whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one.” > > Despite the opinion of the Politco writer I don’t think the polls show Bernie is the most most popular politician in the US. They show that people view him more favourably than other people on the list. > > Favorability. Not popularity. Ok. So only polls that specifically ask “Who is your one true favorite politician?” count? I’m tired & don’t want to keep googling for polls. And ultimately, it’s a distinction that doesn’t hold much value. Among the various pond scum in DC, Sanders alone somehow has eked out a net positive approval rating. That’s something. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/68 "2017-07-14T03:32:07Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > Ok. So only polls that specifically ask “Who is your one true favorite politician?” count? …if you want to assert that Bernie is the most popular politician in America, then yes I think actually asking that question is important. > [@](#): > > I’m tired & don’t want to keep googling for polls. And ultimately, it’s a distinction that doesn’t hold much value. Among the various pond scum in DC, Sanders alone somehow has eked out a net positive approval rating. That’s something. Trump also managed to eked out a net positive approval rating. He managed to get himself elected President of the United States of America. Thats something else entirely. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/69 "2017-07-14T03:41:40Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …if you want to assert that Bernie is the most popular politician in America, then yes I think actually asking that question is important. That would be a strange poll. Many people would just name their own House Rep, Senator, Governor, Mayor, etc. Others would just go with whoever has has the most name recognition. I’d answer Seth Moulton, who most of the country hasn’t even heard of. The Favorable/Unfavorable polls of US politicians are just how it’s done. Favorablty is a decent metric for measuring popularity. Is there even a pollster that simply asks “Who is your one true favorite politician?” Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/70 "2017-07-14T03:52:00Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > That would be a strange poll. Many people would just name their own House Rep, Senator, Governor, Mayor, etc. Others would just go with whoever has has the most name recognition. I’d answer Seth Moulton, who most of the country hasn’t even heard of. …and how exactly do you think Bernie ended up topping the favorability stakes in this current round of polling? Do you not think name recognition played a part? > [@](#): > > The Favorable/Unfavorable polls of US politicians are just how it’s done. Yes it is. But it doesn’t measure what you claim it does. > [@](#): > > Favorablty is a decent metric for measuring popularity. I disagree. > [@](#): > > Is there even a pollster that simply asks “Who is your one true favorite politician?” If they wanted to find out who people consider their “one true favourite politcian” was, then that would be the question to ask. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/71 "2017-07-14T03:53:03Z")
It’s ridiculous to think of a 2020 front runner in the middle of 2017. But, there is no way Sanders runs again. He truly pissed off his Senate colleagues with his insistence on dragging out the primaries and his refusal to concede until the convention. Sanders kept his secret service protection which enraged his fellow Senators. His Hamlet attitude and vague semi endorsement didn’t help at all. The behavior of his Bernie Bros at the convention are yet another reason that there will be massive negative data dumps about Bernie should he even seem remotely interested in running again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/72 "2017-07-14T04:04:59Z")
Sure, to the extent that there’s a frontrunner in 2017, it’s him. I’m not saying he’s likely to be the nominee, just that he’s _more likely than anyone else_ at this point. And I’m not exactly the greatest fan of him or his diehard supporters, but the idea that he’s a pariah among Democrats because of what happened in 2016 seems like motivated reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/73 "2017-07-14T13:38:38Z")
Bernie’s popular because his supporters still support him, and because Hillary supporters have discovered that she couldn’t beat Trump. And because the campaign is over, and Hillary has lost popularity because she lost the campaign. Of course the last time we had a campaign for President, to the extent that charisma matters, Bernie lost to one of the least charismatic candidates they could find, and to the extent that policy matters, Bernie lost to a mainstream Democratic candidate with mainstream policies (mostly). Who then lost to an even less charismatic candidate, with even less mainstream policies (somewhat). So Bernie loses to Hillary, and Hillary loses to Trump. And for some reason that makes Bernie the front-runner. Because he is less appealing, both in policy and in personality, than Hillary. It looks to me like the Dems are laying the foundation for losing to Trump again. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/74 "2017-07-14T14:39:24Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/75 "2017-07-14T15:35:22Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Bernie’s popular because his supporters still support him, and because Hillary supporters have discovered that she couldn’t beat Trump. And because the campaign is over, and Hillary has lost popularity because she lost the campaign. > > Of course the last time we had a campaign for President, to the extent that charisma matters, Bernie lost to one of the least charismatic candidates they could find, and to the extent that policy matters, Bernie lost to a mainstream Democratic candidate with mainstream policies (mostly). Who then lost to an even less charismatic candidate, with even less mainstream policies (somewhat). > > So Bernie loses to Hillary, and Hillary loses to Trump. And for some reason that makes Bernie the front-runner. Because he is less appealing, both in policy and in personality, than Hillary. > > It looks to me like the Dems are laying the foundation for losing to Trump again. > > Regards, > Shodan Right. It’s just like in 1976, when Reagan lost to Ford, then Ford lost to Carter, and nobody ever heard from that loser Reagan again, while Carter went on to two terms of universal acclaim. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/76 "2017-07-14T16:08:43Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …if you want to assert that Bernie is the most popular politician in America, then yes I think actually asking that question is important. > > Trump also managed to eked out a net positive approval rating. He managed to get himself elected President of the United States of America. Thats something else entirely. Trump has never had a positive net approval rating in his life. He is currently at about- 16. Really, the more you post in this thread, the more you reveal that you have no business doing so. Obviously, there’s not a direct correlation between net approval rating and winning elections. Bernie had a higher NAR than Hillary, but Hillary won because she did better among that large group of Democrats who viewed BOTH of them favorably. Then Hillary had a higher NAR than Trump, but lost because Trump won the group of voters who disliked BOTH of them. So his 80% approval rating among Democrats doesn’t mean that he is a cinch to win the nomination, but it does conclusively rebut the assertion that there is “too much animosity” toward him among the Party base for him to be a strong candidate. NAR is a much more sensible way to assess electability than asking “who is your very favorite politician”, because voters don’t just pick a single candidate and stick with him or her no matter what, they choose from among the pool of acceptable candidates and often switch depending on how the campaign is going. Last point, of course Bernie does well in those polls partly because he has high name recognition. Why do you imply that that somehow invalidates the polls? The steps to winning elections are getting people to recognize your name, getting them to like you, then getting them to actually vote for you. Why would you not think that a candidate who has already successfully completed the first two steps has a huge advantage over one who hasn’t?! ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/77 "2017-07-14T16:11:16Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Right. It’s just like in 1976, when Reagan lost to Ford, then Ford lost to Carter, and nobody ever heard from that loser Reagan again, while Carter went on to two terms of universal acclaim. Of course, Reagan really did mount a strong challenge to incumbent President Ford. Shitbag Sanders got his ass whipped in the 2016 primaries but refused to exit gracefully like an obnoxious guest who refuses to accept that the party is over. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/78 "2017-07-14T16:17:22Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Inspired by [this Vox article,](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/5/15802616/bernie-sanders-2020) which argues strongly that he is, and [this 538 chat](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-bernie-sanders-really-the-democratic-front-runner/), discussing same. > > There have been[three decent polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020#National_polling)of this question this spring (scroll about halfway down the page). Bernie won all three of them, but with no more than 20% support. There were three different runners-up, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama (😕) and Hillary Clinton (:eek:). > > My conclusions: Although Sanders is clearly nowhere near the commanding position that Hillary Clinton was in four years ago, he does seem to be the single person most likely to gain the nomination (but with a chance well below 50%). > > The Vox article argues convincingly that, unlike many of the others being discussed, he pretty clearly is intending to run. He has an active organization of activists and donors, Our Revolution, so he has a huge head start over any other candidate in terms of establishing a ground game. And he is[massively popular,](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/329404-poll-bernie-sanders-countrys-most-popular-active-politician) with an approval rating of 57% among the general public and 80% among Democrats. Nobody else comes close. > > On the other hand: Clearly many people in the Democratic institutional hierarchy can’t stand him, some on ideological grounds but others personally. The influence of superdelegates will be less in 2020, but still present. Ultimately the voters decide, but this is still a problem. > > It was recently announced that his wife is being investigated for bank fraud by the FBI. If that comes to anything, it will be a massive blow to his brand; it’s hard to think of any politician whose career is _less_ likely to survive revelations of financial hanky-panky. > > And, if elected, he would be 79 years old on Inauguration Day. That’s older than Reagan was when he\* left \*office. > > My personal opinion: I love and admire Bernie Sanders. He has been one of my heroes since childhood. But I’m well into middle age now, and that’s a problem. I don’t want an octogenarian President. > > This wasn’t relevant in the last election, because his opponent was almost as ancient, but really, can’t we find a popular progressive who hasn’t passed what most people think of as retirement age? Maybe not; although I can’t find a link to the actual raw poll results, it seems from the article that the only other Democrat potential candidate with a positive net approval is the elderly Ms. Warren, and she has a much higher number of no-opinions. > > I would like to hope that someone younger can be found (Baldwin? Merkley?), but if as the election draws nearer, it remains clear that Bernie Sanders has the best chance of beating the Republican…well, we already made that mistake once. Nominate him and pray for his health (and for a good VP choice). > > About the other candidates: Michelle Obama? Really? I mean, she seems like a very smart and decent person, and she has had the opportunity to see close up how a successful Presidency works, but… I prefer to elect a President who has actually held high-level elected office before. My crystal ball says that the percentage of Americans who agree with me will steadily rise between now and 2020. Likewise, dismissing Mark Cuban, Oprah and the Rock as serious candidates. > > Biden and Warren are almost as old as Sanders and don’t have comparable progressive credentials. If either of them were fifteen years younger, I could see an argument for picking them over Bernie, but they’re not. > > Hillary Clinton? Really? Is this actually a thing? I can’t even… The Democratic leadership is at a low tide, and the DNC, rotten to the core. Sanders is their #1 guy for now, but like you said he will be 79 years old by 2020. That’s too old for a first term president. If the Democrats are smart, they would choose Al Senator Franken. He’s 66 now, from the Mid West, pretty smart, and I think well liked. Probably the best they have to win the new Red States of MI, WI and PA. The fringe types who control the party however would need to embrace him. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/79 "2017-07-14T17:19:29Z")
I love the idea of Al Franken. Maybe Bernie could be his running mate to bring in some of those in his base who would otherwise refuse to vote or vote Green. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2017, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190/80 "2017-07-14T17:21:59Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > I love the idea of Al Franken. Maybe Bernie could be his running mate to bring in some of those in his base who would otherwise refuse to vote or vote Green. Yeah, but then you lose out on bumper stickers that read FRANKEN/STEIN. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-bernie-sanders-the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020/791190.md?page=5)