# Is Boehner toast as Speaker? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 2, 2013, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844 "2013-01-02T17:18:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/41 "2013-01-03T15:57:35Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Do you mean are their 17 GOP house members that will vote for Pelosi instead of Boehner? In two words - hell no. Similarly there is no chance that any Democrat will vote for Boehner - why would they when they could elect Pelosi instead? > > The only interesting vote is in the GOP caucus room - whoever wins that vote will be elected Speaker. Again, this isn’t like a primary system where every member must vote for Boehner or Pelosi. Seventeen Republicans could vote for ME or YOU as Speaker, not because they want us in that office, but to simply force a second ballot and force Boehner to step down if it becomes clear that he can’t twist enough arms to get a majority. If he would actually have to solicit Democrats in subsequent ballots to get elected Speaker, that would increase his irrelevancy in the Republican ranks and cause him to lose more support. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/42 "2013-01-03T15:57:44Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Is there _any_ chance that there will be 17 or more republicans who just flat out refuse to vote for Boehner under any circumstances, thus forcing Boehner to seek some Democratic support? > > Is there any chance that any Democrats end up voting for him? No and no. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/43 "2013-01-03T15:58:40Z")
If I didn’t dislike Breitbart already, I do now. “$41 dollars”? Tsk. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/44 "2013-01-03T16:07:39Z")
The last time it went more than one ballot on the floor of the House was 1923, according to Wikipedia. It ain’t happening this year. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/45 "2013-01-03T16:17:56Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Boehner was led into a trap by Obama. Basically, the “Fiscal Cliff” bill just passed included everything that Obama wanted..so we are well on the way to a $22 trillion national debt. Its clear-the Democrats will set off a major inflation, and yet, they will be able to point to the Republicans and say, “so what..they approved it”/ But who knows..maybe Obama is right-we can spend our way to prosperity. > On the other hand, if all this spending crashes the dollar (and oil hits $300/bbl.), Obama will have a bit of a hard time. Ralph, you think the Republicans were trying to cut spending and Obama convinced them to not cut spending? You know of course that the Republicans don’t want to cut spending. What are they going to cut? The military? Social Security? Medicare? They don’t dare to cut anything or propose any cuts in anything. They aren’t trying to cut spending. They are trying to cut taxes, which is different than cutting spending. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/46 "2013-01-03T16:40:16Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Do you mean are their 17 GOP house members that will vote for Pelosi instead of Boehner? In two words - hell no. Similarly there is no chance that any Democrat will vote for Boehner - why would they when they could elect Pelosi instead? But that’s just it; they _can’t_ elect Pelosi. On account of those 17 GOP House members-For-Pelosi not existing. They _can_ reward Boehner (for bowing to the inevitable, or something) by giving him 17 Dem votes to keep him in the Speaker’s seat, and at least prevent the kind of coup that might lead to Cantor or Ryan taking the gavel. I remember that after the Republicans took a one-seat majority in the California Assembly (I think 1995), it looked like Curt Pringle was about to be elected Speake of that body. And then at the last minute, one of the Republican Assemblymen cast his vote for Willie Brown. Everybody _LAUGHED_ and _LAUGHED_! Well…not Curt Pringle, obviously. > [@jtgain](#): > > [http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/03/Quiet-before-the-storm-Boehner-moves-to-the-right-to-try-to-keep-job](http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/03/Quiet-before-the-storm-Boehner-moves-to-the-right-to-try-to-keep-job) > > Not the most bipartisan of links, but some conservatives think they have enough votes to force a second ballot.. And, upon reading that, I would be tickled PINK to see Nancy helpin’ a Boehner out… ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/47 "2013-01-03T16:45:40Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > They _can_ […] at least prevent the kind of coup that might lead to Cantor or Ryan taking the gavel. No, they can’t. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/48 "2013-01-03T16:52:28Z")
Why would anyone want to be Speaker of this lot? You’ve got enough Republicans who are either completely unwilling to cooperate with Democrats or are afraid of being replaced if they try that it is impossible to lead that caucus. Besides voting to repeal Obamacare a few dozen more times, what is their agenda? They may pay lip service to cutting spending but they don’t make any specific proposals. Repeating bumper stickers and opposing whatever the president wants to do doesn’t require a lot of leadership. So who the hell wants to lead such a dysfunctional group? I’d rather be janitor of the House than Speaker. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/49 "2013-01-03T17:02:09Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Why would anyone want to be Speaker of this lot? Other than the lust for power that drives people into politics, you mean? I think that’d be reason enough, despite the headaches. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/50 "2013-01-03T17:24:00Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Again, this isn’t like a primary system where every member must vote for Boehner or Pelosi. Seventeen Republicans could vote for ME or YOU as Speaker, not because they want us in that office, but to simply force a second ballot and force Boehner to step down if it becomes clear that he can’t twist enough arms to get a majority. > > If he would actually have to solicit Democrats in subsequent ballots to get elected Speaker, that would increase his irrelevancy in the Republican ranks and cause him to lose more support. I don’t think you actually understand how the Speaker election works. It isn’t going to go to an open floor election in which large numbers of either party are undecided. If you had read my posts in detail you’d note I mentioned a caucus vote, some of which go multiple rounds. This is where the parties meet to decide on a nominee. When the Clerk of the House opens the session, he asks for nominees. The battle for Speakership happens **before** that moment, the battle is to be nominated. The party caucuses have gone multiple votes in recent memory over the nomination, but once it goes to a full floor vote they will most likely be in lock step. If the arch-conservatives in the GOP caucus didn’t have enough votes to get another nominee instead of Boehner, then they also will not have enough votes to elect anyone other than Boehner in the House floor voting. This isn’t a situation where moderate Republicans are pondering casting their lot with the Democrats, but one where extremely conservative ones may not want Boehner back, they simply would never vote for any Democrat. There is no chance anyone other than a Republican becomes Speaker. If the hardcore conservatives actually refused to vote for Boehner on the first ballot, and you had many rounds of balloting, it’d just be a fight for which Republican would win. There would never be a scenario where a Democrat won. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/51 "2013-01-03T17:25:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > No, they can’t. You mean a mathematical “No, they can’t,” or a _realpolitik_ “No, they can’t?” ---
**Author:** ![Honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f04885/32.png) [@Honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honesty)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/52 "2013-01-03T17:30:27Z")
Does anyone know why the Speaker didn’t hold a vote on Sandy right away? Why is he waiting until tomorrow? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/53 "2013-01-03T17:33:03Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > You mean a mathematical “No, they can’t,” or a _realpolitik_ “No, they can’t?” I mean a procedural “No, they can’t.” The Republicans get to vote for one nominee, the Democrats get to vote for one nominee. There’s no way the Democrats can influence the Republicans’ choice. The only way that would work is if the party system breaks down entirely, which just isn’t happening for about a million different reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/54 "2013-01-03T17:33:46Z")
To expand on my above point, the reason the floor vote hasn’t gone second round since 1923, is rebellions happen in the _caucus vote_. If a challenger to the current presumptive nominee can’t even win in the caucus vote, the only thing you accomplish by not getting behind him after the caucus vote is causing a big mess and hurting your own party. If you can knock him out in the caucus vote, then he won’t even be standing for election come the floor vote. But if you refuse to vote for him after he _has_ won the caucus vote, on the full floor of the House, then you take what is normally supposed to be handled in caucus out in public in the hope that you can somehow force the rest of the party (who were not persuaded in the caucus votes) to vote for your guy. It’s a prospect with such little chance of success that it just makes no sense. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/55 "2013-01-03T18:00:48Z")
So far two Republicans have voted for Allen West for speaker. One of them was Looney Louie Gohmert. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/56 "2013-01-03T18:03:08Z")
Half way through the vote. 10 votes for other, including some Dem votes…oooh… 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/57 "2013-01-03T18:09:36Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Half way through the vote. 10 votes for other, including some Dem votes…oooh.. 🙂 Are you talking about Democrats not voting for Pelosi? There were a couple (including one vote for Colin Powell), but she’s going to be their nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/58 "2013-01-03T18:13:28Z")
Not that it matters. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/59 "2013-01-03T18:22:57Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Not that it matters. Oh yeah…the GOP needed 17 defections. The Dem defections were meaningless. Boehner wins Speaker.. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844/60 "2013-01-03T18:24:27Z")
Yup, Boehner won. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-boehner-toast-as-speaker/645844.md?page=4)