# Is civil war in Egypt averted? 90% yes for new Constitution. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 17, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071 "2014-01-17T16:30:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/1 "2014-01-17T16:30:01Z")
All the predictions of bloody civil war in Egypt appear to be quite wrong with this weeks news from that country. Is civil war likelihood vanished before our very eyes? Is fundamentalist Islam ceasing to be a threat in Egypt? ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/2 "2014-01-17T16:47:17Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > All the predictions of bloody civil war in Egypt appear to be quite wrong with this weeks news from that country. Turnout was only about 38%, and the referendum was [boycotted by opposition groups](http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-egypt-constitution-vote-20140114,0,2614632.story#axzz2qfuEbWyP), including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. Thousands of opposition members have been imprisoned, and their political activity suppressed. > [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Is civil war likelihood vanished before our very eyes? Is fundamentalist Islam ceasing to be a threat in Egypt? Probably not, and probably not. The anti-army, pro-Islamist people didn’t disappear or change their minds, they boycotted the referendum. All this vote demonstrates is that the pro-army faction is, indeed, pro-army, and counts about 38% of the population. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/3 "2014-01-17T17:51:11Z")
It appears the only two options for Egypt are military dictatorship or Islamic theocracy. Democracy is not a viable alternative–if there is a free democratic vote (no parties banned…) then the Islamic theocracy movement will win–that is why Morsi was elected. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/4 "2014-01-17T17:54:54Z")
So after all the brouhaha we went from a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Mubarak to a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Al-Sisi. Except of course in the process due to Obama administration’s incompetence we lost any influence with Egypt which went from being friendly to US to being unfriendly/hostile to the US. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/5 "2014-01-17T19:15:45Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > -if there is a free democratic vote (no parties banned…) then the Islamic theocracy movement will win–that is why Morsi was elected. I’m not sure that is true. He only won 53% of the vote in 2012 and I think many Egyptian believed that Morsi administration would be more moderate than it turned out to be and would change their vote. The massive widespread protests against him didn’t happen over his election, only later over the actions of his administration. You are correct that Democracy doesn’t appear in the cards in the near future, but were free and fair elections possible, I doubt that most Egyptians would vote in favor of an Islamic theocracy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/6 "2014-01-17T19:47:55Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > So after all the brouhaha we went from a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Mubarak to a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Al-Sisi. Except of course in the process due to Obama administration’s incompetence we lost any influence with Egypt which went from being friendly to US to being unfriendly/hostile to the US. What do you mean “we went”? “We” had little, if anything, to do with what went on in Egypt, and that’s a good thing. I don’t think “we” need to be forcing any governments on people anymore. As for the OP: we still don’t really know. As noted, the election was boycotted by most of the people who would have voted “No”. There is still a good possibility of civil war, or at least some significant domestic “unrest”. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/7 "2014-01-17T19:58:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > What do you mean “we went”? “We” had little, if anything, to do with what went on in Egypt, and that’s a good thing. I don’t think “we” need to be forcing any governments on people anymore. “We” in that case as in “the world”. And “we” (the US) certainly [did support the Muslim Brotherhood](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/18/anti_americanism_egypt_muslim_brotherhood) - that is why Egyptians (the ones in power, as well as in the street) are pissed at us right now and don’t listen to anything that “we” (read: [Hagel](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/chuck-hagel-al-sissi-egypt-102068.html#.UtmKD7Qo56w)) have to say. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/8 "2014-01-17T20:00:09Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > “We” in that case as in “the world”. And “we” (the US) certainly [did support the Muslim Brotherhood](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/18/anti_americanism_egypt_muslim_brotherhood) - that is why Egyptians (the ones in power, as well as in the street) are pissed at us right now and don’t listen to anything that “we” (read: [Hagel](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/chuck-hagel-al-sissi-egypt-102068.html#.UtmKD7Qo56w)) have to say. We supported the duly elected government of Egypt. I’m shocked. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/9 "2014-01-17T20:13:09Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > We supported the duly elected government of Egypt. I’m shocked. Well, based on past practice, you probably should be. Every now and then you’ve got to throw in the old switcheroo to keep 'em guessing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/10 "2014-01-17T20:22:20Z")
The Arab Spring meant getting rid of the Old Guard, and ushering in the new. What “the new” is going to mean remains to be seen. The US really isn’t in the business of orchestrating coups anymore, although we’re not above supporting them when they suite our purpose. Oh, I forget, it wasn’t a “coup” they had recently in Egypt. It was a thing that looked exactly like a coup in every way, shape, and form, but was declared “not a coup” by Obama, so we could keep sending them money. At any rate, we just may have to get used to the idea that “we” can’t pick up the phone and tell a Hosni Mubarak what to do anymore. And we might want to rethink who “we” are giving money to. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/11 "2014-01-17T20:46:11Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > It appears the only two options for Egypt are military dictatorship or Islamic theocracy. Let us hope they choose wisely. 😉 Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/12 "2014-01-17T22:13:40Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Turnout was only about 38%, and the referendum was [boycotted by opposition groups](http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-egypt-constitution-vote-20140114,0,2614632.story#axzz2qfuEbWyP), including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. Thousands of opposition members have been imprisoned, and their political activity suppressed. > > Probably not, and probably not. The anti-army, pro-Islamist people didn’t disappear or change their minds, they boycotted the referendum. All this vote demonstrates is that the pro-army faction is, indeed, pro-army, and counts about 38% of the population. Let me correct the mistakes first. Results will be announced tomorrow but reports are turn out was over 50%. 97.7% voted YES has been confirmed. A HUGE mandate for support for General Sisi. Keep in mind the military in Egypt is not like any other and most Egyptians have a huge regard for it. Salafists were the biggest party to endorse the YES vote in the referendum. > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I’m not sure that is true. He only won 53% of the vote in 2012 and I think many Egyptian believed that Morsi administration would be more moderate than it turned out to be and would change their vote. The massive widespread protests against him didn’t happen over his election, only later over the actions of his administration. You are correct that Democracy doesn’t appear in the cards in the near future, but were free and fair elections possible, I doubt that most Egyptians would vote in favor of an Islamic theocracy. Correct Most Egyptians are more sufi orientated and this radical Wahabi ideology supported by the West is very alien to the man in the street. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > What do you mean “we went”? “We” had little, if anything, to do with what went on in Egypt, and that’s a good thing. I don’t think “we” need to be forcing any governments on people anymore. > > As for the OP: we still don’t really know. As noted, the election was boycotted by most of the people who would have voted “No”. There is still a good possibility of civil war, or at least some significant domestic “unrest”. Nonsense, there will never be civil war in Egypt. Egyptians are not tribal and have rejected every attempt by McCain and Obama to release Morsi and the leadership. The US refused to declare them a terrorist org when Egypt did. Why? because a good number of them are working for the US in Libya and Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that Egypt has closed down the MB operations Britain has given them a licence to broadcast their Islamist sheikhs over Eurosat when Nilesat closed them down and London has become their new HQ and London has now opened their Media HQ. Did you read that? Yes London has shifted the MB operations from Cairo to London. You have to at some point wonder surely why the US and UK are backing the ‘brothers’ or do you really not know what is happening? did you not see Amanpour supporting MB against Saweiris last week shaming herself yet again and CNN? Do you really not know of the huge campaign going on right now against US journalists and Egyptian dual passport activist bloggers who have been totally discredited and the exposing of the likes of Matt Bradley and all the other WSJ and NYT writers who have been consistently misrepresenting what is happening in Egypt with calls for them to be arrested or deported? Their doctored footage and images. Their support for the MB. The Starbucks Zamalek gang. The very fact I am having to write this is testament to the fact that people here really don’t know what the hell is happening in Egypt. Why? because you media has just given a licence to Al Jazeera America which is the biggest MB propaganda channel in the world. No one tales them seriously and now they shifted to an American audience LOL. They are the FAUX News of the Arab world and what we all laugh at is Al Jazeera headlines all talk of the coup!!! LOL Most Americans know so little outside their own states that they wouldn’t be able to find Qatar on a map or even know that it’s own Emir who is crying coup down the cables to Americans now orchestrated a COUP and deposed his OWN FATHER!! LOL If you think the USA is not involved in what is going on and their support for the MB then we are in deeper shit than we think. > [@Terr](#): > > “We” in that case as in “the world”. And “we” (the US) certainly [did support the Muslim Brotherhood](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/18/anti_americanism_egypt_muslim_brotherhood) - that is why Egyptians (the ones in power, as well as in the street) are pissed at us right now and don’t listen to anything that “we” (read: [Hagel](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/chuck-hagel-al-sissi-egypt-102068.html#.UtmKD7Qo56w)) have to say. Correct!!! we are amazed at the lack of a superpowers people have so little knowledge of what is going on under their noses. Your country is backing jihadists in Syria right now!! May God damn the USA ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/13 "2014-01-17T22:22:01Z")
Here this is just one image for Western sponges to soak up from their TV news as they eat dinner Supposed to be a Syria child lying between graves of his parents. Altered reality fed to Western audiences and there are millions more just like it. You would not believe the thousands of comments this one alone is getting about totally suckered Westerners who believe their Western journalists and media. [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeNqNkFIUAEBQV6.jpg](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeNqNkFIUAEBQV6.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/14 "2014-01-17T22:23:37Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Results will be announced tomorrow but reports are turn out was over 50%. > 97.7% voted YES has been confirmed. A HUGE mandate for support for General Sisi. Let me correct you here. A 60% vote can be called a mandate. A 70% vote is a “HUGE mandate”. A 97.7% vote points to the illegitimacy of the vote. If Sisi was smart, instead of the Brezhnevite 97% he should have orchestrated something like 75%. Respectably “HUGE mandate” and not a complete joke like 97%. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/15 "2014-01-17T22:25:46Z")
Question was Is civil war averted in Egypt? As long as Egypt can keep the US out of Egypt and Egyptian army continues to sweep up the terrorists supported by the USA and UK then Egypt will be just fine. Egyptians will never allow Egypt to become America’s next Libya or Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan. It will not be the US next trophy. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/16 "2014-01-17T22:29:25Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Let me correct you here. A 60% vote can be called a mandate. A 70% vote is a “HUGE mandate”. A 97.7% vote points to the illegitimacy of the vote. If Sisi was smart, instead of the Brezhnevite 97% he should have orchestrated something like 75%. Respectably “HUGE mandate” and not a complete joke like 97%. You can argue that out with the International monitors and supervision then who had full access and were at every polling station unlike during Morsi election who reported virtually zero violations. 97.7% Egyptians voted for Sisi and Constitution. Tomorrow evening you can watch Nile TV and get live results and 27.000 EU International Monitors/Observers report on it. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/17 "2014-01-17T22:38:47Z")
If you have a unified military on the same page, then civil war is averted no matter how many poorly armed Islamic brothers don’t like it. IOW, there was never really a chance of civil war if the military didn’t permit it. On the plus side their constitution seems to have some separation of church and state. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/18 "2014-01-17T22:41:48Z")
97.7% Egyptian said NO to Radical Islamist Terrorists and their foreign and local supporters ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/19 "2014-01-17T22:42:37Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Let me correct the mistakes first. > > Results will be announced tomorrow but reports are turn out was over 50%. > 97.7% voted YES has been confirmed. A HUGE mandate for support for General Sisi. Keep in mind the military in Egypt is not like any other and most Egyptians have a huge regard for it. Do you have a source for a 50%+ turnout? I’m seeing [37%](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25754118) reported, with second-day turnout being low. It’s really not a mandate when the opposition is boycotting and/or being suppressed. > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > Salafists were the biggest party to endorse the YES vote in the referendum. Correct, I had that wrong. It was other Islamists groups that were boycotting and/or being suppressed. > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > You can argue that out with the International monitors and supervision then who had full access and were at every polling station unlike during Morsi election who reported virtually zero violations. From the same article: > [@](#): > > But reports also surfaced of violence and intimidation directed against those who had voted against — or were campaigning against — the constitution. > > Police detained a young man in Cairo’s Nasr City neighborhood Tuesday after he wrote “no to military trials of civilians” on his ballot and a supervising judge reported him. The new constitution preserves the military’s right to try civilians in army courts. > > The National Council for Human Rights also reported instances in which election monitors were not allowed inside polling stations, though they carried accreditation. > > “There is no space for people to choose to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no,’ ” Naem said. “Those who go out to vote will vote ‘yes,’ and those who don’t will boycott. The atmosphere right now does not allow you to say ‘no’ — there is no room for that.” ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/20 "2014-01-17T22:48:28Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > If you have a unified military on the same page, then civil war is averted no matter how many poorly armed Islamic brothers don’t like it. IOW, there was never really a chance of civil war if the military didn’t permit it. > > On the plus side their constitution seems to have some separation of church and state. Egyptians are different to other regional countries. We should be compared. Egyptians also have an ancient army history unlike other countries that goes back to the pharaohs and there are very few Egyptians who do not love their army. The army are the people of Egypt. We do not have church and state. We have Muslims and Christians. Muslims have their own family law courts and the Christians have their own family law courts and again we are different to other countries in this aspect. Both religions are tried under the French court system for criminal law. No Christian is tried under Sharia. No Jew is tried under Sharia in egypt. Sharia family law is only for Muslims and that is clear in the constitution. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071.md?page=2)