# Is civil war in Egypt averted? 90% yes for new Constitution. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 17, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071 "2014-01-17T16:30:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/21 "2014-01-17T22:56:16Z")
> [@](#): > > Do you have a source for a 50%+ turnout? I’m seeing 37% reported, with second-day turnout being low. Nile TV is reporting over 50% BUT as I said it will be confirmed tomorrow night on TV by election committee. > [@](#): > > It’s really not a mandate when the opposition is boycotting and/or being suppressed. Each voter gets to put his tick behind a screen. He was free to put his tick where he wanted. The recent terrorism made voters even more determined to vote for Sisi and get them out. I saw a few known MB neighbours voting when I voted. > [@](#): > > Correct, I had that wrong. It was other Islamists groups that were boycotting and/or being suppressed. Which ones? ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/22 "2014-01-17T23:07:24Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Nile TV is reporting over 50% BUT as I said it will be confirmed tomorrow night on TV by election committee. Link? > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > Each voter gets to put his tick behind a screen. He was free to put his tick where he wanted. The recent terrorism made voters even more determined to vote for Sisi and get them out. I saw a few known MB neighbours voting when I voted. 😕 A boycott means a refusal to vote at all, not voting “no.” And, if the story about the young man arrested for what he wrote on his ballot is true, it certainly doesn’t speak well of the secrecy of the process. > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > Which ones? The MB / Freedom and Justice Party, obviously, but reports like [this one state:](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/16/egyptian-voters-back-new-constitution) > [@](#): > > The south has traditionally been a stronghold for Islamist groups, who almost all boycotted the poll in protest at Morsi’s overthrow and at a crackdown on Islamist dissent. That’s what I have to on, the reports available to me. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/23 "2014-01-17T23:13:06Z")
Do you know that Obama has at least 5 MB members in his admin one being Homeland Advisor? Do you know that Morsi’s wifes Sisterhood Foundation has been hired by Hillary Clintons campaign? ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/24 "2014-01-17T23:19:41Z")
> [@](#): > > Link? are you serious? you want a link to Nile TV Channel 😕 okay here you go [http://www.niletc.tv/](http://www.niletc.tv/) > [@](#): > > And, if the story about the young man arrested for what he wrote on his ballot is true, it certainly doesn’t speak well of the secrecy of the process. link > [@](#): > > The MB / Freedom and Justice Party, obviously, but reports like this one state: First The Guardian is NOT a source we can use? 😃 give me something reliable and do you know who the FJP are? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/25 "2014-01-17T23:22:53Z")
excellent article **Perhaps American’s should ask Egypt to come over & clean our house too while they’re at it** > [@](#): > > When we have so much diverse & even muddled dissemination of events presently happening in Cairo, Egypt focusing on the bloody uprising incited by Muslim Brotherhood militants spreading carnage under this magnanimous facade delegating them as “protesters”, it baffles me that there’s any hesitancy at all in designating these nihilist zealots as anything but a terrorist organization. > > They are & always have been terrorists by virtue of their history, their own public declarations of intent, & their stated methods for seeking global prominence leading to world dominance, thereby assuming arbitrary supremacy. > > In short, the Muslim Brotherhood has made it no secret what their ambitions are & what their ultimate goal is. Another harsh reality to go along with that, which some seem incapable of accepting for whatever cognitive defect of reason, is the indisputable fact that they will accept nothing less than the complete submission of those not of the Mohammedan persuasion they view as “Kafirs”. In other words: Us. > > Yet as Egyptian Authorities weigh the option of outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood & declaring it a terrorist organization, recent reports surrounding Egypt’s tumult cite a death toll so far (which some are saying is a conservative estimate) at over 700. Yet as news of the bloodshed is haphazardly broadcast to the world, some have begun to discern an underlying slant towards sensitivity being insinuated into coverage for these alleged pro-Brotherhood protesters. A repugnant sense of sympathy despite the overall path of wanton destruction & death these insurgents have left in their wake against anti-Morsi demonstrators. Along that path is strewn the evidence of their having purposefully set ablaze Christian mercantile’s, an estimated 45 Churches & Christian institutions (Including an orphanage) during their spree on Friday in what these pro-Brotherhood protesters have termed for themselves as “a day of rage”. Meanwhile the media, not surprisingly, has remained silent on these acts of terrorism against Christians. more here [http://www.dcclothesline.com/2013/08/18/perhaps-americans-should-ask-egypt-to-come-over-clean-our-house-too-while-theyre-at-it/](http://www.dcclothesline.com/2013/08/18/perhaps-americans-should-ask-egypt-to-come-over-clean-our-house-too-while-theyre-at-it/) ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/26 "2014-01-17T23:32:04Z")
No need for link to the ballot paper guy story above MadaMasr is one of the best Anti Army blogger sites you can find. Sara Carr an Egyptian blogger who writes extensively for the MB and against the army and who boycotted the referendum is a regular reporter for them so sorry Mada Masr stories are rarely taken seriously by Egyptians. If you want balanced reporting there are very few in English. Maybe Lyse Doucet of BBC is the best. Also the ballot boxes are transparent . I put my ballot in and it could easily be read. If he wrote on it then the judge beside the box can easily read it has more than a tick in the circle. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/27 "2014-01-17T23:43:41Z")
In fact many people took photos of their ballot paper and waved it before putting it in box. Some put it in box showing the tick to cameras as they were proud to tick yes. [![](https://english.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2014/1/13/2014-635252225011517037-151.jpg) ](https://english.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2014/1/13/2014-635252225011517037-151.jpg) [http://stream.aljazeera.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/story\_big\_thumbnail/h51174906.jpg](http://stream.aljazeera.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/story_big_thumbnail/h51174906.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/28 "2014-01-17T23:44:36Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > are you serious? you want a link to Nile TV Channel 😕 okay here you go [http://www.niletc.tv/](http://www.niletc.tv/) I don’t read Arabic. I assumed that if they were covering the story, other news outlets would be too. Is that not the case? > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > link [Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egyptian-constitutional-referendum-goes-into-second-day/2014/01/15/654131a6-7dec-11e3-93c1-0e888170b723_story.html) > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > First The Guardian is NOT a source we can use? 😃 give me something reliable and do you know who the FJP are? :rolleyes: I trust the [New York Times is acceptable?](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/15/world/middleeast/egypt.html?_r=0) > [@](#): > > The government has declared the Brotherhood a terrorist organization, jailed its leaders, seized its assets and criminalized membership. It has shut down all sympathetic Egyptian media outlets and arrested activists for even trying to hang signs or place stickers opposing the new charter. > > At least seven members of Strong Egypt, a moderate Islamist party, have been arrested for trying to hang posters against the charter, moving the party to boycott the vote rather than face more arrests. Two more women were arrested Tuesday for trying to put up opposition signs, state media reported. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/29 "2014-01-17T23:45:53Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > No need for link to the ballot paper guy story above > > MadaMasr is one of the best Anti Army blogger sites you can find. Sara Carr an Egyptian blogger who writes extensively for the MB and against the army and who boycotted the referendum is a regular reporter for them so sorry Mada Masr stories are rarely taken seriously by Egyptians. If you want balanced reporting there are very few in English. Maybe Lyse Doucet of BBC is the best. > > Also the ballot boxes are transparent . I put my ballot in and it could easily be read. If he wrote on it then the judge beside the box can easily read it has more than a tick in the circle. So, the voting is _not_ secret then, as you implied. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/30 "2014-01-17T23:50:36Z")
Many ballots were discarded because voters put a love heart around the tick in Yes box because they LOVE General Al Sisi And you don’t believe 97.7% voted YES for Sisi and NO for Terrorists. 😃 [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeOB4h7IIAAphxw.jpg:large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeOB4h7IIAAphxw.jpg:large) ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/31 "2014-01-17T23:52:12Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > So, the voting is _not_ secret then, as you implied. When they do the tick they can do what they like tick Yes or Not in secret after that when it is in box it can be seen but by then it is in closed box and counted. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/32 "2014-01-17T23:56:12Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > So, the voting is _not_ secret then, as you implied. Secret, shmecret 🙂 The results are predetermined. It is weird. Arab authoritarian leaders (and that is often the same in other areas of the world, too) during “elections” have a real dilemma. On one hand, if the results of the balloting are less than 90%, they look weak in their supporters’ eyes and in the eyes of other authoritarian neighbors. But if the results are 90% or more, no one in the free world takes those results seriously. What to do, what to do… They usually go for the fellow-authoritarians’ “legitimacy” vs Western one. See Sisi’s 97% here (and I am sure when he runs in the upcoming elections, the results will be simlar). Or Bashar Assad in 2007 - re-elected with 97% of the vote. What is it about 97%? I guess 99% looks way too much, and 90% leaves too substantial an apparent opposition. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/33 "2014-01-18T00:06:31Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > When they do the tick they can do what they like tick Yes or Not in secret after that when it is in box it can be seen but by then it is in closed box and counted. …which means people can be targeted for the way they vote, or even political statements they write on the ballot. This is a problem. Fair elections depend on each voter being able to vote their conscience, and that’s not possible when the vote isn’t secret and there’s an active climate of suppressing certain political views. ETA: In this light, the high incidence of “Yes” votes is rather easily explained, as it was in the articles I’ve read: voting “No” means being subject to arrest and harassment, so people who would’ve voted “No” simply don’t vote. This cannot be called a mandate. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/34 "2014-01-18T00:07:36Z")
> [@](#): > > I don’t read Arabic. I assumed that if they were covering the story, other news outlets would be too. Is that not the case? Egypt is an Arab speaking country. Our news is in Arabic. 😕 If Nile is saying 50% then they are probably accurate. > [@](#): > > Washington Post > > I trust the New York Times is acceptable? If you read my post further back I mention them I think. No they are not reliable because as I said they are anti Coup so biased. The only true source would be the people who live in Egypt and certainly not Western journalists who support the MB almost 100% with the exception of as i said Lyse Doucet who is very professional and just reports what she sees and not what she thinks. If you have Twitter then you could check out these guys who write in English to see what is being said in the streets and the reality in Egypt . @AmrAdelFahmy @Nervana\_1@melhoshy@Demerdash1 @esfahanhanim@jjmhulsker@Fou2adaMasr@A201057 @Lifeguard707 @ColorMeRed @BetOnMisr @zanesfather @em\_ess ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/35 "2014-01-18T00:13:28Z")
Allah forbid someone be “anti-coup”. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/36 "2014-01-18T00:13:33Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Egypt is an Arab speaking country. Our news is in Arabic. 😕 If Nile is saying 50% then they are probably accurate. I understand, but a link in Arabic does me no good, you see. Reports in English are giving lower numbers. > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > If you read my post further back I mention them I think. > No they are not reliable because as I said they are anti Coup so biased. > The only true source would be the people who live in Egypt and certainly not Western journalists who support the MB almost 100% with the exception of as i said Lyse Doucet who is very professional and just reports what she sees and not what she thinks. > > If you have Twitter then you could check out these guys who write in English to see what is being said in the streets and the reality in Egypt . > > @AmrAdelFahmy @Nervana\_1@melhoshy@Demerdash1 @esfahanhanim@jjmhulsker@Fou2adaMasr@A201057 @Lifeguard707 @ColorMeRed @BetOnMisr @zanesfather > @em\_ess So, even when they are just relaying the state media’s own reports, the NYT is fabricating stories? This sort of approach, hand-waving away reports that contain information you don’t like, makes actual debate impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/37 "2014-01-18T00:15:28Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > …which means people can be targeted for the way they vote, or even political statements they write on the ballot. This is a problem. Fair elections depend on each voter being able to vote their conscience, and that’s not possible when the vote isn’t secret and there’s an active climate of suppressing certain political views. > > ETA: In this light, the high incidence of “Yes” votes is rather easily explained, as it was in the articles I’ve read: voting “No” means being subject to arrest and harassment, so people who would’ve voted “No” simply don’t vote. This cannot be called a mandate. 😃 First it is illegal and against vote rules to do anything but a tick as it invalidates the ballot paper. Obviously you can write a poem and draw smilies in your country, but we are talking about Egypt voting rules. I know nothing of anyone being arrested, their ballot is just rejected. Second are you serious?? 😃 have you see the counts? we are not America, we do not have enough prisons to put all the NO voters in ! OMG!! I saw my own neighbours who are MB go in and vote and come out again get in their cars and drive away. No one even looked twice at them. I was glad they voted. That’s democracy. You Sir watch too much Western propaganda 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/38 "2014-01-18T00:15:53Z")
[Human Rights Watch: Egypt: Activists Arrested for ‘No’ Campaign](http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/13/egypt-activists-arrested-no-campaign) Are they not to be trusted either? ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/39 "2014-01-18T00:16:47Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Allah forbid someone be “anti-coup”. oh GOD!! there’s always one isn’t there 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2014, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/40 "2014-01-18T00:21:56Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > 😃 > > First it is illegal and against vote rules to do anything but a tick as it invalidates the ballot paper. Obviously you can write a poem and draw smilies in your country, but we are talking about Egypt voting rules. I know nothing of anyone being arrested, their ballot is just rejected. Well, I’ve given you a report that someone was arrested. Cite that marking on the ballot in this way is a crime, as opposed to merely disqualifying the ballot? > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > Second are you serious?? 😃 have you see the counts? we are not America, we do not have enough prisons to put all the NO voters in ! OMG!! You don’t have to. No regime ever does. I doubt Stalinist Russia had the gulag capacity for everyone who wanted to complain about the government. But who will be the first to do so, knowing that they may not have room in prison for everyone, they might have room for you? And then there’s all the options for extra-judical intimidation and violence… > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > I saw my own neighbours who are MB go in and vote and come out again get in their cars and drive away. No one even looked twice at them. I was glad they voted. That’s democracy. Democracy requires secret ballots. So, how do you explain the 97% figure? MB supporters spontaneously switching allegiance, or MB supporters boycotting the election? > [@Marmite Lover](#): > > You Sir watch too much Western propaganda 😃 And you are blinded by your personal bias and vested interest. That comment was just as constructive to discussion as yours, i.e. not at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071.md?page=3)