# Is civil war in Egypt averted? 90% yes for new Constitution.

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [January 17, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071 "2014-01-17T16:30:01Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 38

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/741 "2014-02-10T18:35:20Z")

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“Cite”\> Democracy is more important than liberalism, yes. I’ve been very clear about that. An illiberal democracy (e.g., Singapore, Russia) is better than a liberal authoritarian state. You may have noticed, however, that authoritarian states are virtually never liberal, because minority rule requires oppression. We’re seeing that right now in Egypt. -Human Action \<“Cite”

Is this how you see it?

Pre/revolution Mubarak era: Authoritarian State.

Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Constitution: Authoritarian State

Post-Constitution / Pre-Morsi period: Authoritarian State.

Morsi Era: Liberal Democratic State.

Post-Morsi/ current: Authoritarian State.

Is this how you see it? If not how do you see it?

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**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/742 "2014-02-10T18:37:41Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Can you assure the readers with indisputable confidence that the Muslim Brotherhood did not in any way support/finance the Islamic fundamentalists who were committing acts of terror in the Sinai and still are?
> 
> If not, the MB is not worthy of existence in a process leading to giving all Egyptians a peaceful way to be represented in their government.

That’s the standard of evidence you, the advocate for liberal democracy, endorse to determine whether people can participate in the political process? How about _you_ prove that they, and which ones, and to what extent, finance Sinai militants?

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> If one really wants to work for peaceful representation in government then start a peaceful organization with no record of ties to past or current violence.

[They already did that.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_and_Justice_Party_(Egypt)) Morsi was elected as a member of the Freedom and Justice Party, not the MB.

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**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/743 "2014-02-10T18:41:33Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> “Cite”\> Democracy is more important than liberalism, yes. I’ve been very clear about that. An illiberal democracy (e.g., Singapore, Russia) is better than a liberal authoritarian state. You may have noticed, however, that authoritarian states are virtually never liberal, because minority rule requires oppression. We’re seeing that right now in Egypt. -Human Action \<“Cite”
> 
> Is this how you see it?
> 
> Pre/revolution Mubarak era: Authoritarian State.
> 
> Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Constitution: Authoritarian State
> 
> Post-Constitution / Pre-Morsi period: Authoritarian State.
> 
> Morsi Era: Liberal Democratic State.
> 
> Post-Morsi/ current: Authoritarian State.
> 
> Is this how you see it? If not how do you see it?

No.

Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.

Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Constitution: Not really a government at all.

Post-Constitution / Pre-Morsi period: There wasn’t a post-Constitution, pre-Morsi period. Morsi was elected in June 2012, the Consitution was enacted in December 2012.

Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.

Post-Morsi/ current: authoritarian, illiberal.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/744 "2014-02-10T20:58:05Z")

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> [@Human\_Action](#):
>
> No.
> 
> Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.
> 
> Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Constitution: Not really a government at all.
> 
> Post-Constitution / Pre-Morsi period: There wasn’t a post-Constitution, pre-Morsi period. Morsi was elected in June 2012, the Consitution was enacted in December 2012.
> 
> Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.
> 
> Post-Morsi/ current: authoritarian, illiberal.

Was ‘not really a government’ a military government?

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/745 "2014-02-10T21:33:03Z")

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> [@Human\_Action](#):
>
> No.
> 
> Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.
> 
> Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Constitution: Not really a government at all.
> 
> Post-Constitution / Pre-Morsi period: There wasn’t a post-Constitution, pre-Morsi period. Morsi was elected in June 2012, the Consitution was enacted in December 2012.
> 
> Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.
> 
> Post-Morsi/ current: authoritarian, illiberal.

What form of government was in control when this was allowed to happen?

> [@](#):
>
> In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood becomes legitimate party By REUTERS, JPOST  
> LAST UPDATED: 06/07/2011 15:19
> 
> Group becomes an official political party for the first time since they were outlawed in 1954; can run in September’s elections.  
> Muslim Brotherhood protest against Mubarak.

> **[In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood becomes legitimate party](https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/In-Egypt-Muslim-Brotherhood-becomes-legitimate-party)**
>
> Group becomes an official political party for the first time since they were outlawed in 1954; can run in September's elections.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/746 "2014-02-10T22:12:45Z")

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What is wrong with this?

(A) Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.

(B) Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Morsi / Pre-Constitution: Military /Authoritarian allows democratic process.

© Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.

(D) Post-Morsi/ current: Authoritarian. Able to repeat (B) when economic crisis and militant crisis and civil order is restored and managed.  
Just as (B) was more conducive to Democracy than (A) … (D) must be preferable to (A) for any reasonable mind to consider. The good news is that it is the same authority in charge pretty much in terms of power of force throughout all of (B) © and (D) anyway.  
And thirty years of (A) makes your Nile crocodile tears over the mistakes and tragedy of one year of © a minute setback in the revolution set on building a democracy in Egypt - worthy of the people who have moved from (A) to (D) without a civil war.

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**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\
**Post date:** [February 10, 2014, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/747 "2014-02-10T23:57:42Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Was ‘not really a government’ a military government?

To some degree, the military was nominally in charge, but Mubarak’s cabinet was still running day-to-day goverment. It lasted sixth months and was a transitional caretaker government to impliment elections, not sovereign in its own right.

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> What form of government was in control when this was allowed to happen?
> 
> [In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood becomes legitimate party - The Jerusalem Post](http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/In-Egypt-Muslim-Brotherhood-becomes-legitimate-party)

The transitional government.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/748 "2014-02-11T01:04:36Z")

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> [@Human\_Action](#):
>
> To some degree, the military was nominally in charge, but Mubarak’s cabinet was still running day-to-day goverment. It lasted sixth months and was a transitional caretaker government to impliment elections, not sovereign in its own right.
> 
> The transitional government.

So is this accurate as to how you see it?  
(A) Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.

(B) Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Morsi / Pre-Constitution: transitional, authoritarian, illiberal.

(C) Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.

(D) Post-Morsi/ current: authoritarian, illiberal.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/749 "2014-02-11T01:09:01Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Just as (B) was more conducive to Democracy than (A) … (D) must be preferable to (A) for any reasonable mind to consider. The good news is that it is the same authority in charge pretty much in terms of power of force throughout all of (B) (C) and (D) anyway.  
> .

Can you see how an outside observer might think B,C,D is going to keep on going until the military doesn’t think B will ever be a threat to their authority?

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**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/750 "2014-02-11T02:21:14Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> So is this accurate as to how you see it?  
> (A) Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.
> 
> (B) Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Morsi / Pre-Constitution: transitional, authoritarian, illiberal.
> 
> (C) Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.
> 
> (D) Post-Morsi/ current: authoritarian, illiberal.

Yes.

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> What is wrong with this?
> 
> (A) Pre/revolution Mubarak era: authoritarian, illiberal.
> 
> (B) Revolution era /Post-Mubarak /Pre-Morsi / Pre-Constitution: Military /Authoritarian allows democratic process.
> 
> (C) Morsi Era: democratic, illiberal.
> 
> (D) Post-Morsi/ current: Authoritarian. Able to repeat (B) when economic crisis and militant crisis and civil order is restored and managed.  
> Just as (B) was more conducive to Democracy than (A) … (D) must be preferable to (A) for any reasonable mind to consider.

Most of my posts in this thread have been about what’s wrong with that. I really hope you have some idea of my position by now. In either case, I’ll summarize with bullet points:

- Democracies are the only legitimate form of government. Minority rule is inherently wrong.

- The revolutionaries have no special claim on dictating what the government should be, just because you happen to like their ideas. All citizens are entitled to an equal say in their government.

- Liberal authoritarian regimes are vanishingly rare, because they must oppress the majority in order to keep power, so expecting an authoritarian regime to implement civil liberties is a remote hope, indeed. Liberalism can’t be imposed by force, and authoritarian regimes aren’t known for trying.

- Rule of law coupled with democracy is the backbone of stable, prosperous, states, as we have in the West. The coup neatly rejected both. You write that the military and/or revolutionaries (you’re unclear on that point) are “able” to depose the democratic government and return to authoritarian government in order to hopefully try democracy again. Well, they aren’t “able” to do that under the law, they are able to do that because they have the tanks and guns.

- The military is self-interested, like all institutions, and its needs don’t perfectly dovetail with the peoples’ needs. This makes allowing them to, in effect, veto the democratic process incredibly harmful to the prospect of a government that serves the people first. Ask yourself: if the military was interested primarily in protecting their power and privileges from reform, how would their conduct have differed from their actual conduct? Even the slightest bit?

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> The good news is that it is the same authority in charge pretty much in terms of power of force throughout all of (B) (C) and (D) anyway.

I don’t know what this means - the military was always the real authority? I don’t even care at this point, your Gish Gallop and insults have rather soured me on this exchange.

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> And thirty years of (A) makes your Nile crocodile tears over the mistakes and tragedy of one year of (C) a minute setback in the revolution set on building a democracy in Egypt - worthy of the people who have moved from (A) to (D) without a civil war.

**Excuse me?** Crocodile tears? That’s just grossly insulting and offensive.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/751 "2014-02-11T02:31:55Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Can you see how an outside observer might think B,C,D is going to keep on going until the military doesn’t think B will ever be a threat to their authority?

Exactly. The revolution will be over when The Military decides it is over! And if it takes 10 elections to get things the way the military wants it… so be it!

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/752 "2014-02-11T03:02:16Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Originally Posted by NotfooledbyW (Post 17093082) Just as (B) was more conducive to Democracy than (A) … (D) must be preferable to (A) for any reasonable mind to consider. The good news is that it is the same authority in charge pretty much in terms of power of force throughout all of (B) (C) and (D) anyway. \<“Cite”
> 
> > [@](#):
> >
> > (-CarnalK 02-10-2014 08:09 PM) Can you see how an outside observer might think B,C,D is going to keep on going until the military doesn’t think B will ever be a threat to their authority?

That is an intelligent question which should compel an outside observer to consider all the aspects of the revolts that erupted across the Arab the past three years.

There is one aspect of (B) that should encourage all observers. It is that the Army allowed the MB to run for political offices in the first place. And it is in their interest to allow democracy to flourish when most Egyptians look favorably on their military. It is not in their interest to allow an Islamocracy to take root in Egypt.  
We are seeing a ‘new reality’ … that is not necessarily measured in our definitions of elections and democracy. This was written shortly after Morsi was arrested.  
“Cite”\> The Brotherhood’s loss is definitely a gain for those struggling against jihadist and Brotherhood-inspired groups in the Arab world, \*\*sending a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces." \*\* -Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. - See more at: [Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam?](http://jcpa.org/article/egypt-after-morsi-the-defeat-of-political-islam/#sthash.i3PCTXwe.dpuf) \<“Cite”  
Here’s more… it is hard to edit this down. So much is pertinent:

_“The Defeat of Political Islam”_ Written July 12, 2013 in Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

> [@](#):
>
> The Defeat of Political Islam Many analysts who follow Egyptian politics have repeatedly stated that the Muslim Brotherhood, a very well-organized political faction that hijacked the revolution in Egypt, would be dominant for years to come due to the weakness of the opposition and liberal forces.
> 
> To strengthen their argument, these analysts pointed at the Brotherhood’s strong organization, resolve, and political acumen. Moreover, President Morsi’s firing of the top brass of the Egyptian army in August 2012, following an attack by jihadists in Sinai who killed 16 Egyptian soldiers, and the eclipse of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) which had ruled de facto since the resignation of President Mubarak, convinced many that the old concept of Egypt being a military society ruled by a junta of officers belonged to the past. It was believed that the army had lost its resolve to fight the Muslim Brotherhood as long as its interests – mainly economic – were protected. Events proved this analysis wrong: The Muslim Brotherhood lost its power because it did not correctly assess the opposition, because it was eager to dominate all key positions in the state, and because it did not foresee the possible coalition between the liberals and the army.  
> The Brotherhood’s loss is definitely a gain for those struggling against jihadist and Brotherhood-inspired groups in the Arab world, sending a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces.  
> **Underestimating the Liberal Current in the Anti-Muslim Brotherhood Movement**
> 
> There is a misconception about Egyptian domestic reality that is anchored in superficial knowledge of the forces within the Egyptian body politic. Since there is no real way to take the pulse of the “street,” most information, including polls on domestic opinion in Egypt, comes from biased sources that do not reflect the situation on the ground. As a result, many analysts fell into the trap of the Brotherhood’s propaganda and underestimated the strength of the opposition. They concluded that there was no way the opposition could overcome the Brotherhood’s apparatus.
> 
> In fact, a look at the results of the presidential elections indicates that 49 percent of the voters opposed the Muslim Brotherhood. Some even claimed that Morsi lost the elections, and that SCAF, manipulated by the U.S., conceded victory to Morsi in order to avoid bloodshed.
> 
> In any case, since the beginning of his presidency, one could see that the Brotherhood’s efforts to change Egypt into an Islamocracy were met by opposition that became more vociferous and emboldened by the day. Years of Mubarak’s dictatorship were not to be replaced by a Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship.
> 
> Unwillingly, Morsi had to call on the army to restore law and order, and as events unfolded, especially after January 2013 when cities along the Suez Canal declared a revolt and announced their autonomy, Morsi became more dependent on the same army he had wanted to confine to the barracks.
> 
> It was Morsi’s mistakes that brought the army and liberal forces together, a development he could not have foreseen. When Morsi realized that the army had sided completely with the opposition, he tried a last-minute maneuver to replace the Defense Minister and Commander of the Egyptian Army, Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.
> 
> But Gen. Sisi had taken the initiative first, and instead of being sacked like his predecessor, Field Marshall Tantawi, he was the one who announced to Morsi that he was no longer president.  
> This reflected the Brotherhood’s shortcomings in their political analysis of the domestic reality in Egypt. Vulnerability of Regimes Facing Mass Protest Events in Egypt have illustrated once more the strength of mass protests.
> 
> Most of the regimes in the region cannot withstand the shock of mass protests, and the use of live ammunition against such protests can only worsen the situation. Both in Egypt and Tunisia, regimes fell because of mass protest, and because the army chose not to take part in the protest and open fire.
> 
> \*\*The situation in Egypt that brought the end of Morsi’s presidency was an unwritten alliance between the army and the mass protest movement. \*\*
> 
> In such an eventuality, the regimes stand no chance to survive.
> 
> Again,\*\* the role of the army in politics is primary: It has always been the main factor that will maintain regimes in the Middle East, and it will remain so in the near future.\*\*  
> …  
> The new reality is that the Middle East is not homogenous and the interests of all the various groups must be considered.

See more at: [Egypt after Morsi: The Defeat of Political Islam?](http://jcpa.org/article/egypt-after-morsi-the-defeat-of-political-islam/#sthash.i3PCTXwe.dpuf)

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/753 "2014-02-11T03:16:11Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> Exactly. The revolution will be over when The Military decides it is over! And if it takes 10 elections to get things the way the military wants it… so be it!

The military is now ‘partnered’ with the liberals and moderates who started the revolution. You are right … the revolution is not over… but it will be over when the liberals and the military decide that it is… Islamocracy will not happen in Egypt.

“Cite”\> The Brotherhood’s loss is definitely a gain for those struggling against jihadist and Brotherhood-inspired groups in the Arab world, sending a message that political Islam can be subdued by moderate and liberal forces." -Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah\* \<“Cite”

That is not bad news for democracy. It is the best news for democracy in that part of the world for a long time. SCAF and Liberals and Moderates in partnership against Islamocracy. And civil war is being avoided… on top of that.

But could you tell Human Action that the Revolution did not end when Morsi won the first election. And its looking better for the revolution every day now that Morsi is in jail and can do no more damage to the economy and to democracy.

- “Cite”\> Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. - See more at: [http://jcpa.org/article/egypt-after-....i3PCTXwe.dpuf](http://jcpa.org/article/egypt-after-....i3PCTXwe.dpuf) \<“Cite”

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/754 "2014-02-11T03:47:13Z")

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(-Human Action 02-10-2014 09:21 PM) - Democracies are the only legitimate form of government. Minority rule is inherently wrong. \<“Cite”

No doubt. But the revolution in Egypt had two fights - thus far. One against authoritarian rule based upon the military and police state power of dictatorship. The revolutionaries have won that fight.

The second comes against the tyranny of a majority (perhaps a majority) that is not dedicated to democracy but dedicated to Islamocracy. Islamocracy is not democracy.

That is the flaw in your position on events in Egypt. The power closest to an expression of democracy is in Egypt’s case… is **mass protest**. The liberals, moderates, secularists have won the democratic battle of mass protest. The second is the win against Islamocracy which is due to an alliance with the military. The same military that refused to shoot these same protestors/revolutionaries when they demanded the thirty year dictator had to go. That’s two wins for democracy. Morsi’s win has lost all significance now. There is no reason to yearn for three more years of Morsi democracy. It had no power to fulfill a desire for all of Egypt to become theocratic state. Mass protest democracy and the military won’t allow it. ever.

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**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/755 "2014-02-11T04:48:27Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> B]. The liberals, moderates, secularists have won the democratic battle of mass protest. The second is the win against Islamocracy which is due to an alliance with the military. The same military that refused to shoot these same protestors/revolutionaries when they demanded the thirty year dictator had to go. That’s two wins for democracy. Morsi’s win has lost all significance now. There is no reason to yearn for three more years of Morsi democracy. It had no power to fulfill a desire for all of Egypt to become theocratic state. Mass protest democracy and the military won’t allow it. ever.

Except that’s not what’s happening. What’s happening is the military, with a lot of those liberals, moderates, and secularists, overthrew Morsi, and now the military isn’t giving up the power they’ve gotten. They’re arranging it so el-Sisi will become President, and rounding up and arresting the opposition, and setting up an us vs them situation…you either support military government or you want Morsi and the Brothers back. The liberals, moderates, and secularists aren’t the winners here. The military is, and before long, you’re going to see the same thing you saw under Mubarak. That’s what people in this thread are complaining about. Most of us aren’t any great lovers of Islamist parties. But we do generally dislike the idea of a government rounding up and killing its political opponents.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/756 "2014-02-11T11:19:04Z")

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> [@Captain\_Amazing](#):
>
> Except that’s not what’s happening. What’s happening is the military, with a lot of those liberals, moderates, and secularists, overthrew Morsi, and now the military isn’t giving up the power they’ve gotten.

What you are not accepting is the reality that the military has virtually little more and little less raw authoritarian power in Egypt today than it had three years ago when Mubarak handed full authority to it and left. The military controls 40 percent of Egypt’s socialistic style economy - and that is real power.

The military does not have an ability to deal with mass protests that can interfere with maintaining a society that can get back to normal economic continuity that will allow Egypt to return to a functional economy where tourism is a major industry that is lucrative for many Egyptian businesses and thus families.

So the military has come full square in support if the only mass protest movement that matters in Egypt’s democracy - and that is the liberal pro-democracy movement. The Islamists that support Morsi could not put the number’s in the streets to counter the second revolt that led to Mirsi’s ouster.

So the military joined the liberals and have prevailed.

Because of the violence in the Sinia - it has become necessary to crackdown on any Islamist organization that lends sympathy to what amounts to anti-government Seccesionists using violence which must be considered as acts war - that also cripple the ability to return to normal economic activity across the country.

The crackdown on the MB and any form of Islamic extremism is as much a part of establishing civility on two fronts. Satisfying mass protests by non-Islamists and crushing all and any violence by Iskamusts.

The army has made their only viable choice at preserving civil  
order.

And it is naive to think that had the Pro-Morsi side won the true sympathy and allegiance of the military that Islamists would not be oppressing their political opposition within the next months and years to come.

And no - that cannot be proven but it was one of those situations where a judgment call had to be made by the only real authority with power to back it up - and I believe al Sisi made the right call, You obviously disagree.

But don’t tell me that democracy is dead in Egypt because the military and liberal democrats have made an alliance in a nation where a significant majority have respect and love for its military.

The military cannot do things that wipe out that respect and survive - so apparently the crackdown on the MB is not something they have to worry about in that regard,

The MB have bungled their chance. I shed no tears for their plight. They did have an opportunity and they over-reached during revolutionary times and they blew it.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/757 "2014-02-11T12:13:15Z")

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(-Human Action 02-10-2014 09:21 PM) - Democracies are the only legitimate form of government. Minority rule is inherently wrong. \<“Cite”

Would a tyranny of the majority be inherently wrong? Sharia law is not comparable or compatible with my sense of giving my consent to be governed by majority under the US Constitution.

I will not insist, demand or require that my fellow liberals and secularists around the world to be forced to give their consent to be governed by a majority that forces Sharia Law down their throats simply because certain believers hold a majority and can dominated the electoral numbers when such things come up for a vote.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/758 "2014-02-11T14:12:18Z")

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The US is a “tyranny of the [super] majority”. How do you think rights gets affirmed in the Constitution, or the Constitution gets amended if not being voted on? They do not get handed down on golden tablets.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/759 "2014-02-11T14:48:05Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Would a tyranny of the majority be inherently wrong? Sharia law is not comparable or compatible with my sense of giving my consent to be governed by majority under the US Constitution.
> 
> I will not insist, demand or require that my fellow liberals and secularists around the world to be forced to give their consent to be governed by a majority that forces Sharia Law down their throats simply because certain believers hold a majority and can dominated the electoral numbers when such things come up for a vote.

**NotfooledbyW** , maybe you missed it. You are the subject of a Pit thread. It’s [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=715398)if you would like to participate.

Regards,  
Shodan

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 11, 2014, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/760 "2014-02-11T18:56:25Z")

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> [@Shodan](#):
>
> **NotfooledbyW** , maybe you missed it. You are the subject of a Pit thread. It’s [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=715398)if you would like to participate.
> 
> Regards,  
> Shodan

Why did you cite my words if you have no response to them.

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