# Is civil war in Egypt averted? 90% yes for new Constitution. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 17, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071 "2014-01-17T16:30:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/141 "2014-01-21T15:26:02Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > There is a special bond between the people and the military here in Egypt; it is a very unique relationship. I was unsure at first but the font size and bolding really does make a good point. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/142 "2014-01-21T16:00:38Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > **Here are some of the comments taken from my interviews with Egyptian voters this week to get a sense of the mood:** Did your source happen to interview any of the people sent to jail for campaigning against the constitutional referendum? That may give a sense of the mood of the other 60%. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/143 "2014-01-21T16:13:04Z")
That “special bond” doesn’t seem to be doing those folks a lot of good, does it? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/144 "2014-01-21T16:29:30Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > That “special bond” doesn’t seem to be doing those folks a lot of good, does it? Their special bond appears to be handcuffs. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/145 "2014-01-21T17:13:10Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > and what makes you think that Egypt is different? The elected government of the United States has never been overthrown by the army, just for starters. > [@](#): > > He is liked because he is quiet and a moderate Muslim and this is one thing that is said about him over and over here, and he is an honest man and his family are well known as humble people. In Egypt the ‘family’ background matters a lot. He has massive respect in Egypt because of his character, his manners. You forgot the primary reason he’s so well respected and liked. He has all the guns. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/146 "2014-01-21T18:16:15Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > 1. To be honest the reality now is very few Egyptians actually care a damn about what the USA thinks. I work in the US closely with two Egyptians that do care what the US thinks. I’m sure you are right about most thinking what you say, however that thinking is not necessarily right or fair. I notice you are unwilling to address my questions and that is unfortunate. I prefer to get my knowledge of what happens by dialogue with people that are closer to the issues than I can ever be. If your understanding of what Egyptians think about the US is valid why accept US contributions in the $billions over the years and our close relationships between our military leaders and yours? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/147 "2014-01-21T18:24:06Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > It appears the only two options for Egypt are military dictatorship or Islamic theocracy. Democracy is not a viable alternative–if there is a free democratic vote (no parties banned…) then the Islamic theocracy movement will win–that is why Morsi was elected. Isn’t there a third option with a timeline of military dominant rule to ease and pave the way to and transition from dictatorship to democratic free society? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/148 "2014-01-21T18:27:52Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I’m not sure that is true. He only won 53% of the vote in 2012 and I think many Egyptian believed that Morsi administration would be more moderate than it turned out to be and would change their vote. The massive widespread protests against him didn’t happen over his election, only later over the actions of his administration. You are correct that Democracy doesn’t appear in the cards in the near future, but were free and fair elections possible, I doubt that most Egyptians would vote in favor of an Islamic theocracy. I agree. Do you believe the future in Egypt can work out for the better without going through the devastating impact of civil war? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/149 "2014-01-21T19:05:10Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > So after all the brouhaha we went from a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Mubarak to a fairly secular/militaristic authoritarian regime of Al-Sisi. Except of course in the process due to Obama administration’s incompetence we lost any influence with Egypt which went from being friendly to US to being unfriendly/hostile to the US. What exactly did Obama do that you have construed to be in competant? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/150 "2014-01-21T19:15:40Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > Yes, and it’s a shame. They went right back to the old guard, … I don’t see this as going back to the old guard. What is your basis for that? They are in a transition phase between the old guard and new. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/151 "2014-01-21T19:27:02Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I don’t see this as going back to the old guard. What is your basis for that? They are in a transition phase between the old guard and new. And your evidence for that is what? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/152 "2014-01-21T20:02:44Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > And your evidence for that is what? They are now operating under a constitution that has been voted into being. That is not what was in place under the corrupt self serving dictatorship of Mubarik. It certainly appears to be precisely a transition from something old to something different. The next president will be quite different from Mubarik and Morsi. This new President can be impeached but the defense minister must be a member of the military and cannot be impeached. The defense Minister has more power than the President but no one is to say that as time goes by Egypt can transition to a government where the elected president had full authority under the constitution as is best for a true and more perfect democracy. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/153 "2014-01-21T20:10:28Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > In other words, almost two thirds of the voters did not support this new constitution. > > Regards, > Shodan No. It means that 2/3 did not vote that could vote and they should sit down and shut up if they don’t like it. Resorting to violence or disruption of government and economic activities in protest of what those who voted put in place may make you ineligible to vote in the future such as convicted felons are restricted here in the States. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/154 "2014-01-21T20:17:34Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > What do you mean “we went”? “We” had little, if anything, to do with what went on in Egypt, and that’s a good thing. I don’t think “we” need to be forcing any governments on people anymore. > . The phrase “we went” is considerably accurate since we propped Mubarik up for so long and continue to heavily support the Egyptian military through the entire revolution taking place in Egypt. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/155 "2014-01-21T20:27:55Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > As for the OP: we still don’t really know. As noted, the election was boycotted by most of the people who would have voted “No”. There is still a good possibility of civil war, or at least some significant domestic “unrest”. Why do you presume most non-votes were no votes? Domestic unrest is distinctively less worrisome than a civil war. We can’t know anything for sure but we can read trends and societal norms and conditions to make odds on predictions about what may be coming. I’m quite sure that domestic unrest will be a constant evil On the path ahead but the chaos and major destructiveness of civil war looks to reasonably be no part of Egypt’s future. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/156 "2014-01-21T20:40:49Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > No. It means that 2/3 did not vote that could vote and they should sit down and shut up if they don’t like it. **Resorting to violence or disruption of government and economic activities in protest of what those who voted put in place** may make you ineligible to vote in the future such as convicted felons are restricted here in the States. I assume the irony is lost on you. Hint: the elected government that was voted into place was thrown out of power under threat of violence in a military coup. You seem to be ok with that, but feel those boycotting the vote should sit down and shut up and don’t seem to have a problem with removing their right to vote for disruption of government or economic activities in protest. I assume you’d have had no problem with Bush taking away the voting rights of anyone protesting the Iraq War, right? They were after all resorting to disruption of government or economic activity in protest of what those who voted put in place. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/157 "2014-01-21T20:41:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > “We” in that case as in “the world”. And “we” (the US) certainly [did support the Muslim Brotherhood](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/18/anti_americanism_egypt_muslim_brotherhood) - that is why Egyptians (the ones in power, as well as in the street) are pissed at us right now and don’t listen to anything that “we” (read: [Hagel](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/chuck-hagel-al-sissi-egypt-102068.html#.UtmKD7Qo56w)) have to say. We did not support the Muslim Brotherhood. That is a distortion of reality that has been pushed in the US by Wingnuts like Sean Hannity as well as most factions in the post-Mubarik turmoil that we’ve seen. Your link actually confirms the gist of what I am telling you: (((“The anti-American rhetoric that has always flowed freely through the Egyptian media has been mirrored in public opinion. Again, this long predates Egypt’s revolution or the election of a Muslim Brotherhood government. In May 2008, only 4 percent of Egyptians agreed that the “United States will allow people in this region to fashion their own political future as they see fit without direct U.S. influence,” while only 6 percent approved of the leadership in Washington, according to polling by Gallup. This changed very briefly after Obama’s election and his June 2009 speech at Cairo University, as approval of the United States in Gallup polling peaked in mid-2009 at 37 percent. But that number crashed below even George W. Bush levels within a year. In late 2011 (well before Morsy or the Muslim Brotherhood took power), over 70 percent of Egyptians opposed U.S. economic aid to Egypt. Back when the SCAF (not Morsy) aggressively prosecuted (and the media demonized) U.S.-funded NGOs, virtually nobody – including the NGOs – was willing to stand up and defend such aid. Few Egyptians think they will suffer politically by bashing America.”))) ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/158 "2014-01-21T20:50:21Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > I assume the irony is lost on you. Hint: the elected government that was voted into place was thrown out of power under threat of violence in a military coup. You seem to be ok with that, but feel those boycotting the vote should sit down and shut up and don’t seem to have a problem with removing their right to vote for disruption of government or economic activities in protest. I assume you’d have had no problem with Bush taking away the voting rights of anyone protesting the Iraq War, right? They were after all resorting to disruption of government or economic activity in protest of what those who voted put in place. Peaceful Protest of the pending ground invasion of Iraq is not violating any law. Assaulting the police or destroying government or private property is a violation of law and violaterd should be prosecuted in a court of law no matter the cause. When I marched in protest twice on invading Iraq I did not disrupt economic activity or destroy givernment property - unless you consider walking on the grass in the Mall destruction of property. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/159 "2014-01-21T20:57:52Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > They are now operating under a constitution that has been voted into being. That is not what was in place under the corrupt self serving dictatorship of Mubarik. The 2014 Constitution is actually quite close to the [1971 Constitution](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Constitution_of_1971) that Mubarak ruled under, and which was also voted into being. The 2014 version throws even more power at the military, though, such as expanding military trials of civilians, requiring the defense minister to be approved by Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (that basic problem with civilian rule of the military keeps cropping up); and at the police (the creation of a Supreme Police Council which must be consulted on laws pertaining to itself), while undermining organized opposition to the government (forbidding politicial parties “formed on the basis of religion”). [QUOTE=NotfooledbyW] It certainly appears to be precisely a transition from something old to something different. The next president will be quite different from Mubarik and Morsi. This new President can be impeached but the defense minister must be a member of the military and cannot be impeached. The defense Minister has more power than the President but no one is to say that as time goes by Egypt can transition to a government where the elected president had full authority under the constitution as is best for a true and more perfect democracy. [/QUOTE] The new president will be a life-long military officer who doesn’t tolerate dissent or practice fair elections. That’s not particularly new or different for Egypt, sadly. I’m not soothsayer, nor are you, but it certainly seems like the path to democracy is found through practicing, y’know, _democracy_, not the military removing the elected president from power in a coup, then arresting people who campaigned against the new, even-more-pro-army constitution. Why, that’s not democracy at all, come to think of it. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071/160 "2014-01-21T20:58:52Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Peaceful Protest of the pending ground invasion of Iraq is not violating any law. Assaulting the police or destroying government or private property is a violation of law and violaterd should be prosecuted in a court of law no matter the cause. When I marched in protest twice on invading Iraq I did not disrupt economic activity or destroy givernment property - unless you consider walking on the grass in the Mall destruction of property. [How about hanging posters?](http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/13/egypt-activists-arrested-no-campaign) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-civil-war-in-egypt-averted-90-yes-for-new-constitution/679071.md?page=9)