# Is Coakley going to blow it again? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 30, 2014, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925 "2014-08-30T00:21:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/21 "2014-10-04T03:14:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Considering she should be winning by double digits, like any decent Massachusetts Democrat. Er… perhaps you don’t know this, but four out of the last five Massachusetts governors were Republicans. [Editing to add: looking up-thread, you _do_ know this, which makes your comment even more curious.] ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/22 "2014-10-04T03:55:57Z")
Fair enough. Given that data, and given that it’s a GOP year, Baker should actually be favored to win the race then. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/23 "2014-10-04T04:15:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **elucidator** : > > By 0.2% in the aggregate. Crushing. The Intermediate Value Theorem at work. Immediately after a candidate takes the lead, that lead is going to be very small. Doesn’t mean it won’t get bigger. ---
**Author:** ![GrumpyBunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc8723/32.png) [@GrumpyBunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrumpyBunny)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/24 "2014-10-04T05:12:07Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Does anybody agree with my 1st guess? Seems like it goes a long way in explaining why she lost to Brown. I think it does explain why she lost to Brown. She came across as arrogant, aloof, and unwilling to put in the time campaigning in person. I seem to recall that she made a comment about not wanting to stand in the snow to meet and greet voters. Also, people bought Scott Brown’s down-home, just-folks, I-drive-a-pickup routine, not realizing that he’s not just the average suburban dad who’ll come fix your garage door with you. Once. You’ll notice that folksy crap didn’t work the second time, and now he’s carpetbagged up to New Hampshire. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/25 "2014-10-04T05:40:06Z")
Brown was defeated with a pretty high approval rating, something like 55%. He wasn’t defeated because Massachusetts voters didn’t like him. He was one of those rare incumbents who went down simply because the voters found a challenger they liked even better. ---
**Author:** ![boytyperanma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4491bb/32.png) [@boytyperanma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boytyperanma)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2014, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/26 "2014-10-04T16:40:39Z")
As a MA voter I certainly don’t like Brown. I’m glad he’s headed off to another state so they can listen to his BS. With Coakley, I Like her as Attorney General because she is good at the job. She’s a terrible politician. She can’t convince people to like her, which is pretty important when it comes to getting elected to higher office. The only reason she could win for attorney general was because hardly anyone pays attention to that election. The only reason she’ll beat Baker is because people like him even less. I’ll vote for Coakley so I don’t get Baker, not because I think Coakley is a good choice. ---
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/27 "2014-10-10T16:05:28Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > Also, people bought Scott Brown’s down-home, just-folks, I-drive-a-pickup routine, not realizing that he’s not just the average suburban dad who’ll come fix your garage door with you. Once. You’ll notice that folksy crap didn’t work the second time, and now he’s carpetbagged up to New Hampshire. :smack: Yeah, this is the version of the narrative that I hear from most people. Brown sold himself to a lot of voters as a ‘likable, moderate, just-plain-folks kind of guy’. Then, he got into office and revealed his inner jerkass, at which point they went “fool me once, etc…”, and kicked him out. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/28 "2014-10-10T19:33:28Z")
> [@boytyperanma](#): > > As a MA voter I certainly don’t like Brown. I’m glad he’s headed off to another state so they can listen to his BS. If only. Southern NH, where the people are, is served by the Boston media market, so we get a full dose of NH ads along with MA ads in campaign season. Brown’s BS is not new to New Hampsters either, for the same reason. I do get some wry enjoyment out of the MA Republicans’ ads, which \*always \*emphasize the words Independent, Bipartisan, Not An Insider, etc. but \*never \*say the word Republican. Coakley has run some sharper, more focused, more aggressive ads lately, and has acted that way in debates, and is back on top in the polls now. Not comfortably, not yet, but there are a ton of Undecideds and they typically tend to go with the dominant party come decision time. > [@](#): > > The only reason she’ll beat Baker is because people like him even less. Pretty much, yeah. ---
**Author:** ![john\_b\_2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@john\_b\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/john_b_2)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2014, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/29 "2014-10-18T10:10:07Z")
As a Massachusetts resident I must say it looks like Baker is going to win. If he’s as conservative as I suspect he is beneath all his non- and bi-partisan rhetoric he’ll be a one termer; but if he moves more to the middle he could enjoy a Bill Weld style popularity. The Commonwealth has produced many popular, middle of the road Republican governors over the past seventy plus years in spite of the steep decline in GOP party membership and, especially, representation, which is something like under 25% in both houses of the state legislature. The decline of the Republican party in Massachusetts didn’t prevent Leverett Saltonstall, Christian Herter, John Volpe and Frank Sargent from becoming governor, and doing nicely at it. What I don’t sense is, leaving aside the gubernatorial election, any kind of sea change in the state as a whole as to its political leanings, which are still left of center and likely to remain there for the foreseeable future. Attorney General Martha Coakley is an unappealing politician and an even worse campaigner. Her gender works against her as well. The election of Elizabeth Warren to the senate notwithstanding, Massachusetts is still in more ways than not a good 'ol boy (or boyo, as the case may be) state, and worse, for Coakley, more so among traditional Democrats than Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Airk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de053/32.png) [@Airk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airk)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2014, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/30 "2014-10-20T19:16:21Z")
> [@john\_b\_2](#): > > Attorney General Martha Coakley is an unappealing politician and an even worse campaigner. Pretty much this. I just don’t like her, and I like her even less after that blowout loss to Scott Brown. I am also incapable of thinking about her without thinking about [THIS](http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/z4egij/mass-backwards). ---
**Author:** ![Airk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de053/32.png) [@Airk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airk)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2014, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/31 "2014-10-20T19:23:10Z")
And uh, clarification: I AM going to vote for her. (Though I didn’t in the primary). But that doesn’t mean I like her. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/32 "2014-10-21T14:02:09Z")
Here’s an Oct. 15 poll that shows Coakley slightly ahead; couldn’t find anything more recent: [WBUR Poll: Coakley Keeps Slim Lead | WBUR News](http://www.wbur.org/2014/10/15/latest-wbur-tracking-poll) ---
**Author:** ![john\_b\_2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@john\_b\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/john_b_2)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/33 "2014-10-23T19:06:37Z")
The polls show Coakley and Baker still neck in neck, with no clear winner, and the gap between them neither widening nor growing significantly, with the general consensus that it’s going to be one of those “it ain’t over till it’s over” elections. When the votes starts to trickle in on election night it will become clear. I dislike Coakley for a host of reasons, but Baker scares me, so I may have to hold my nose when I vote. It won’t be the first time. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2014, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/34 "2014-10-23T19:17:33Z")
However, Coakley has held a lead in every poll I have heard of, of 2-6 points or so. While each individual poll has a larger error margin than that, the aggregate does not. If there are no significant revelations or events before 11/4, she’s the clear favorite. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/35 "2014-10-24T03:16:32Z")
Better hope the Boston Globe is full of crap, because they just found Baker ahead by 9: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/ma/massachusetts\_governor\_baker\_vs\_coakley-3266.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/ma/massachusetts_governor_baker_vs_coakley-3266.html) But you are actually comletely wrong about Coakley’s consistent lead. The last four polls in a row have showed Baker ahead, as my cite shows. His aggregate lead is now 4.5. Coakley is looking like she has in fact going to blow it again. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/36 "2014-10-24T13:32:22Z")
Nothing has happened in the campaign to account for a radical shift, and that poll isn’t consistent with any others, even itself from a week ago. But you can dream. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/37 "2014-10-24T15:49:20Z")
And the other three polls? Those are outliers too? Baker +1, Baker +2, and Baker +6. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2014, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/38 "2014-10-27T11:37:56Z")
More bad news for Coakley: [http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/24/politics/coakely-boston-globe-poll/index.html?hpt=hp\_t2](http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/24/politics/coakely-boston-globe-poll/index.html?hpt=hp_t2) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2014, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/39 "2014-10-27T12:11:09Z")
If she loses, she should never run for anything again. It’s bad enough that she was responsible for that reptile Scott Brown to gain a temp job in the Senate, now she’s going to give away the governor’s seat. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2014, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925/40 "2014-10-27T18:33:05Z")
Five straight polls now. The only thing that might save her is that those polls are showing a ton of undecideds. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-coakley-going-to-blow-it-again/696925.md?page=3)