Is conventional invasion worth a nuclear war?

[Velocity]

@Whack-a-Mole

I missed the edit window:

Perhaps a way to think of it is using WWII again.

Imagine Germany embarking on WWII today. We have nukes. They have nukes. Other countries have nukes.

So Germany embarks on a conventional war. Let’s pretend this war plays out like WWII did although this time, when the tide turns against the Germans after Kursk and Normandy the Germans tell the world to stop or else the nukes fly.

This is a big reason countries like Iran will do their level best to obtain nuclear weapons. They can then engage in military adventurism with less fear of reprisals.

Interesting - nukes help an invader seal and keep its new conquests.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@Velocity

Interesting - nukes help an invader seal and keep its new conquests.

Yeah…unless they are fighting someone else who has nukes.

Which is a big part of the reason many countries want nukes. See: Iran

[Velocity]

@Construct

It doesn’t really matter, because if an advanced nuclear nation attacks your country massive amounts of your people will die, your government will collapse and your civilization will end.

But this is the assumption being challenged here. China could conquer half of Siberia and the vast majority of the Russian civilization and populace would survive and continue.

[Dissonance]

@Velocity

But this is the assumption being challenged here. China could conquer half of Siberia and the vast majority of the Russian civilization and populace would survive and continue.

The only reason the vast majority of the Russian civilization and populace would survive and continue is because China has such a small nuclear arsenal (~230 warheads, including both deployable and non-deployable) and only 66 ICBMs with the range to even reach targets in European Russia. Russia, on the other hand, could end China many times over with its current stockpile of 8,500 warheads of which 2,500 are strategically operational if for some bizarre reason China was in a position to take half of Siberia by force, which it is not.

[Trinopus]

Are there any easily available charts of Chinese and Russian deployment of conventional military assets? How many tanks do they each have along the border now?

In the good old Cold War days, we had tons of information of this sort, and could make our guesses as to what would happen if the USSR went balls-for-leather due west.

Also, in point of fact, are there even Chinese rumblings regarding trivial Amur/Ussuri river boundary adjustments these days? Do Chinese diplomats routinely send notes to Russia demanding the return of the land they think they should control?

(Say, at the same level of the recurring Japanese diplomatic notes wanting certain bits of land back from Russia?)