# Is COVID over? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 10, 2022, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718 "2022-11-10T23:31:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/1 "2022-11-10T23:31:21Z")
Right from the beginning of the pandemic, many infectious disease experts correctly predicted how the pandemic would progress. The probable end state was that it would transition from pandemic to endemic, and just become a normal part of our lives like the cold or flu. Are we now there? And do we still need The Quarantine Zone as a category on the SDMB? ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/2 "2022-11-10T23:37:44Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Are we now there? I believe, according to the CDC we are there. > [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > And do we still need The Quarantine Zone as a category on the SDMB? We should probably keep it around assuming people are still using it on a regular basis. ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/3 "2022-11-10T23:38:52Z")
Couldn’t it also be used for the next pandemic? ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/4 "2022-11-11T00:06:49Z")
My sister has been laid up with it for the past week and a half, and nearly landed in the hospital, so yeah, not so fast. And she’s vaxed. ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/5 "2022-11-11T00:06:55Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Are we now there? No, we are not, ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/6 "2022-11-11T00:16:32Z")
No. A major problem is that new variants keep appearing and can be very, very bad. For example: > Cases of the new **Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1** have been growing rapidly in the U.S., and have now been detected in five European Union countries, including Spain, and are expected to **cause an exponential increase in infections over the coming weeks.** > > In France they already account for 25% of cases, 10% of new infections in Belgium and 5% of new infections in Italy. In Spain, at the moment, they represent 2.7% of active infections, and are **expected to be the dominant strain by** **the end of November or the beginning of December** , according to the Minister of Health , **Carolina Darias**. > > According to Gregory Poland, a scientist at Mayo Clinic: “These variants (BQ.1 and BQ.1.1) can quite possibly lead to a very bad surge of illness this winter in the U.S. as it’s already starting to happen in Europe and the UK.” > **[The reason why the new variant of covid-19 is called the Hound of Hades](https://en.as.com/latest_news/the-reason-why-the-new-variant-of-covid-19-is-called-the-hound-of-hades-n/)** > > The new Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have been named ‘Cerberus’ in Germany, after the multi-headed dog that guards the gates to Hades. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/7 "2022-11-11T00:16:48Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > My sister has been laid up with it for the past week and a half, and nearly landed in the hospital, so yeah, not so fast. But can’t that happen with flu, also? ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/8 "2022-11-11T00:33:15Z")
Yes, it can, but she’s got COVID. Lab tested and everything. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/9 "2022-11-11T00:43:53Z")
I didn’t mean to cast doubt on whether your sister actually had/has Covid. Rather, the OP asked whether Covid had, or would soon, “just become a normal part of our lives like the cold or flu,” and I didn’t see your sister’s case as necessarily an argument against that. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/10 "2022-11-11T00:49:39Z")
For comparative purposes, how many Americans per day are dying of it now as opposed to a year ago or two years ago? I stopped hearing regular updates quite a while ago. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/11 "2022-11-11T00:52:17Z")
Last i looked, covid was the third leading cause of death in the US. Flu hasn’t been anything like that for more than half a century. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/12 "2022-11-11T01:00:39Z")
> [@post:6](#): > > Cases of the new **Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1** have been growing rapidly in the U.S., and have now been detected in five European Union countries, including Spain, and are expected to **cause an exponential increase in infections over the coming weeks.** > > In France they already account for 25% of cases, 10% of new infections in Belgium and 5% of new infections in Italy. In Spain, at the moment, they represent 2.7% of active infections, and are **expected to be the dominant strain by** **the end of November or the beginning of December** , according to the Minister of Health , **Carolina Darias**. None of that is any sort of cause for concern. An exponential increase in infections with what rate? And 25% of what total number of cases? Just because a statement has numbers attached to it doesn’t mean those numbers are in any way relevant. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/13 "2022-11-11T01:02:07Z")
No, but third leading cause of death feels relevant to me. That’s not just vaccine deniers. It’s mostly old people who were vaccinated ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/14 "2022-11-11T01:10:54Z")
Actually, “nth leading cause of death” is a completely meaningless statistic, too, because you can put anything in any position you like on such a list, by slicing all the other entries fine enough. Like, maybe some cause of death is behind car accidents on the list… so you divide up car accidents into head-on collisions with other vehicles, rear-end collisions with other vehicles, side collisions with other vehicles, and collisions between vehicles and stationary objects, and it’s ahead of all of those. Or if that’s not a fine enough slicing, then separate those out further by drunk driver, distracted driver, road rage, and driver asleep at wheel. “Primary cause of death for x% of deaths” would be a meaningful statistic. What’s that number look like? ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/15 "2022-11-11T01:16:03Z")
Very good point, and you’ve convinced me. For those who work with actuarial tables and have seen effects of COVID’s impact on life expectancy, the expectation is that the deaths will level off, but we’re clearly not there yet, as it’s causing 7 times more deaths than flu/pneumonia: [FastStats - Leading Causes of Death](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm) BTW, here’s a good summary on it’s impact on life expectancy: [Interpreting Pandemic-Related Decreases in Life Expectancy | American Academy of Actuaries](https://www.actuary.org/node/14837) ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/16 "2022-11-11T01:21:08Z")
I forgot to mention that the question in the OP was also meant to address if COVID will also continue to alter human behavior. At least in the NYC area, things are completely back to normal with respect to social events, shaking hands, etc., although a greater proportion of the population still wears masks (and at least 75% are still wearing them wrong, IME). ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/17 "2022-11-11T01:27:23Z")
Well, the other things high on the list are pretty broad categories, like heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injuries (numbers 1, 2, and 4) > **[FastStats](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm)** > > FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips. But that page is pretty out-of-date, being 2020. I’ll poke around and see if i can find something fresher. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/18 "2022-11-11T01:29:16Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > although a greater proportion of the population still wears masks Like more than 50%? That’s pretty impressive. Chicago’s not as big or dense, but it’s still a large city, and I’d guess maybe 10-15% here wear masks. Maybe … maybe … 20% in some neighborhoods. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/19 "2022-11-11T01:40:58Z")
No, not as much as 50% wear them in NYC. Maybe 25% - but I do think many people carry one just in case they end up somewhere a mask is required. I went for a CAT scan yesterday and the facility required masks. Maybe four people out of thirty or so had to take a mask from the box the facility provided - the rest arrived with their own. And the fact that people are carrying them anyway probably prompts some people to put one on in certain circumstances - I’m sure I’m not the only person who would put a mask on if I walked into a store where the employees were wearing them. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718/20 "2022-11-11T01:43:39Z")
Oh, I still carry a mask myself, just in case. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-covid-over/974718.md?page=2)