# Is criminal profiling basically cold reading? (with a special call out to Ianzin) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 6, 2011, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670 "2011-03-06T08:08:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/221 "2011-03-10T16:07:04Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > Yeah, I don’t think the author is equating profiling with psychics. I think he’s saying that profiling may have some validity but is still a long way from being any kind of rigorous discipline, which is a completely fair comment. He actually takes care to distinguish profiling and psychics: > [@](#): > > This article has demonstrated that, of the two main approaches to offender profiling, IP is easily more scientific than CSA.Whereas IP has produced testable hypotheses and has several empirical studies to back up its claims, […]We cannot say which approach is more successful (defining successful as providing information that results in more arrests) as **there is no reliable published information on the effectiveness of the various approaches.** (bolding in the quote is mine) I don’t read that as any sort of endorsement of the validity of profiling. I agree that his position is one of a desire to see scientific investigation of profiling. As I said in my first post, there’s no real reason why this topic area should be any more or less difficult to investigate empirically than describing and predicting behavior as in any other domain of psychology. Thus, I read him as saying that at present, there is no solid theoretical and empirical basis upon which to build a profile. In that circumstance, according to other quotes from the article, we may as well (at present) rely on psychic visions. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/222 "2011-03-10T16:11:28Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That’s not what the quote says. The quote says that IF there is no theoretical and empirical basis on which to build a profile of an offender,we may as well just base it on psychic visions. It doesn’t say that DEFINITIVELY, THERE NEVER ARE theoretical and empirical basis on which to build a profile of an offender. > > And as the earlier quote I posted shows, the author agrees that there are: > > Indeed, the author refers to the precise study that I had already mentioned before this current piece was linked to. The Godwin and Canter (1997) paper is one examining typical distances from the homes of serial killers that they a) encountered their victims and b) dumped their bodies. That’s certainly very useful information in terms of understanding criminal behavior, but it’s a stretch to point to it as support for profiling. Otherwise, your quote simply states what the aim of profiling is. How does that aim, as expressed in your quote, differ from the aim of psychics involved in criminal profiling? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/223 "2011-03-10T16:19:24Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > The Godwin and Canter (1997) paper is one examining typical distances from the homes of serial killers that they a) encountered their victims and b) dumped their bodies. That’s certainly very useful information in terms of understanding criminal behavior, but it’s a stretch to point to it as support for profiling. That data can be used to narrow the field: when a future serial killer begins dumping bodies, we may use the predictions offered by that study to create a geographical area on which to focus our investigation. That’s profiling. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/224 "2011-03-10T16:28:10Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That data can be used to narrow the field: when a future serial killer begins dumping bodies, we may use the predictions offered by that study to create a geographical area on which to focus our investigation. > > That’s profiling. We’ll know if it can be used successfully in an investigation _when it is used successfully in an investigation._ A good example of this would be…? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/225 "2011-03-10T16:31:18Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > We’ll know if it can be used successfully in an investigation _when it is used successfully in an investigation._ A good example of this would be…? Can’t answer. Too vague. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/226 "2011-03-10T16:37:18Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Can’t answer. Too vague. Then, until evidence for the contrary comes in, you won’t mind if we assume that such evidence does not exist? Of course, if such evidence _does_ come in I’d be more than willing to change my stance, because that would be the logical thing to do, wouldn’t you say? ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/227 "2011-03-10T16:40:59Z")
Wait a minute. If the article in question says that “there is no reliable published information on the effectiveness of the various approaches,” then how can **Diogenes** claim that profiling is never, EVER instrumental in a police investigation? Surely if there is no reliable information out there, then the rational approach would be to withhold judgment for now, right? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/228 "2011-03-10T16:41:54Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That data can be used to narrow the field: when a future serial killer begins dumping bodies, we may use the predictions offered by that study to create a geographical area on which to focus our investigation. Sure. Also, we can often tell if someone was shot with a firearm. That restricts our profile to people who had access to a firearm. We can usually conclude from the site in which a body was dumped whether or not the offender was likely wheelchair-bound or not. > [@](#): > > That’s profiling. I find it to be not terribly consistent with the typical connotation of profiling. That is to say that such knowledge is useful in determining whether the offender probably lives in Topeka versus St. Louis, or likely travels along Interstate 70 or does not. It tells us very little about who or what type of person in Topeka is more likely to have committed the crime than not. So, I do agree that knowing the likely geographic region of the offender may help in terms of focusing investigative efforts. If that’s the hill you’re defending, then congratulations. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/229 "2011-03-10T16:42:50Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That data can be used to narrow the field But it really can’t because you can’t extropolate specificity from generality. Most serial killers are white. That doesn’t mean you can therefore narrow the field to white people. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/230 "2011-03-10T16:43:40Z")
> [@JThunder](#): > > Wait a minute. If the article in question says that “there is no reliable published information on the effectiveness of the various approaches,” then how can **Diogenes** claim that profiling is never, EVER instrumental in a police investigation? > > Surely if there is no reliable information out there, then the rational approach would be to withhold judgment for now, right? In the same way that, given a lack of reliable published information on the effectiveness of psychic predictions in criminal investigations would lead one to rationally withhold judgment, sure. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/231 "2011-03-10T16:45:33Z")
> [@JThunder](#): > > Wait a minute. If the article in question says that “there is no reliable published information on the effectiveness of the various approaches,” then how can **Diogenes** claim that profiling is never, EVER instrumental in a police investigation? Easy. Because it never has been before. ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/232 "2011-03-10T16:48:03Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > She told police not because of the profile, but because he matched a composite sketch of the suspect that people had seen driving away in a victim’s stolen car. The profile had nothing to do with it. The particular sketch that caught him wasn’t based on the witnesses descriptions of the white male seen driving the station wagon after the crime, but on the description of one woman who had seen a dirty and disheveled young white man in an orange parka leaving the scene of a burglary in the same area. The phones were ringing off the wall with the public reporting everything out of the ordinary, so the profile might have helped focus police attention on Chase sooner rather than later…or it might not have, and Chase might have been the prime suspect right away anyway. A profile at best will only help turn police attention in the right direction (and at worst will focus police attention in the wrong one, which is while profiling should always be taken with a healthy grain of salt). In the study quoted in Czarcasm’s link, out of 192 profiles requested only 17% were actually used to identify the subject, but 77% reported that the profile helped focus their investigation. I wouldn’t bet good money on it, but I wouldn’t completely discount it as an area that should be further examined, either. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/233 "2011-03-10T16:51:52Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Then, until evidence for the contrary comes in, you won’t mind if we assume that such evidence does not exist? Of course, if such evidence _does_ come in I’d be more than willing to change my stance, because that would be the logical thing to do, wouldn’t you say? I don’t mind if _you_ make that assumption, because (so far as I’m aware) no one is depending on you to solve any murder cases. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/234 "2011-03-10T16:55:52Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I don’t mind if _you_ make that assumption, because (so far as I’m aware) no one is depending on you to solve any murder cases. Apparently they aren’t depending on profiling either, so I’m not too put out. ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/235 "2011-03-10T16:58:47Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > (bolding in the quote is mine) I don’t read that as any sort of endorsement of the validity of profiling. I agree that his position is one of a desire to see scientific investigation of profiling. As I said in my first post, there’s no real reason why this topic area should be any more or less difficult to investigate empirically than describing and predicting behavior as in any other domain of psychology. Thus, I read him as saying that at present, there is no solid theoretical and empirical basis upon which to build a profile. In that circumstance, according to other quotes from the article, we may as well (at present) rely on psychic visions. I’m completely with you until the last two sentences. I think he’s saying that an educated guess is better than a guess, and that there’s some evidence that profiling can be based on good theory, but the evidence isn’t in as to whether it’s useful or not in its current state - it can be based on good theory and still be wrong. As to it being demonstrably no better than the use of psychics, I think that’s contrary to the author’s stated position. He clearly states that profiling may have some validity, while psychics have clearly been definitively shown to have none whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/236 "2011-03-10T17:02:09Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Apparently they aren’t depending on profiling either, so I’m not too put out. You should get put out. [http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/training/bsu](http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/training/bsu) ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/237 "2011-03-10T17:03:03Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > The particular sketch that caught him wasn’t based on the witnesses descriptions of the white male seen driving the station wagon after the crime, but on the description of one woman who had seen a dirty and disheveled young white man in an orange parka leaving the scene of a burglary in the same area. Ok, but either way, the tip was called in by the killer’s old classmate not because she knew anything about a profile, but because she saw that he matched a police sketch: [Crimelibrary](http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/serial_killers/weird/chase/vampire_5.html): > [@](#): > > After viewing the police sketch of a disheveled man seen in the neighborhood wearing an orange ski parka, and recalling that Chase wore one that day the same color, she was sure this was the man the police were seeking. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/238 "2011-03-10T17:07:54Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > You should get put out. > > [http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/training/bsu](http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/training/bsu) I am fully aware about their claims, just as I’m aware of [other claims.](http://www.victorzammit.com/articles/psychicdetectives.html) Claims are claims, and results are results. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/239 "2011-03-10T17:21:05Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > I’m completely with you until the last two sentences. I think he’s saying that an educated guess is better than a guess, and that there’s some evidence that profiling can be based on good theory, but the evidence isn’t in as to whether it’s useful or not in its current state - it can be based on good theory and still be wrong. As to it being demonstrably no better than the use of psychics, I think that’s contrary to the author’s stated position. He clearly states that profiling may have some validity, while psychics have clearly been definitively shown to have none whatsoever. Here’s another manuscript apparently attributed to the same author. I have no idea of the state of this as a publication, peer-reviewed or otherwise. [http://ebookbrowse.com/damon-muller-does-criminal-profiling-reduce-or-increase-uncertainty-pdf-d50077907](http://ebookbrowse.com/damon-muller-does-criminal-profiling-reduce-or-increase-uncertainty-pdf-d50077907) > [@](#): > > Of the considerable number of words written about criminal profiling in both the criminological and popular press, little have provided good evidence that traditional approaches to criminal profiling are effective. We have little reason to believe that criminal profiling actually reduces the uncertainty associated with an unknown serious crime, and many reasons to suspect that it may actually increase the uncertainty or provide a false sense of certainty. Given this, I find it hard to believe that he is asserting any validity to profiling. How could he, if he believes that it does not reduce uncertainty and in fact may increase it? ---
**Author:** ![Clark\_K](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c77e96/32.png) [@Clark\_K](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clark_K)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2011, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/240 "2011-03-10T18:22:25Z")
I’d like to thank everyone who is digging up papers and websites related to this question. It’s an interesting topic and deserves informed discussion, not blanket assertions pulled out of thin air. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670.md?page=13)