# Is criminal profiling basically cold reading? (with a special call out to Ianzin) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 6, 2011, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670 "2011-03-06T08:08:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/21 "2011-03-06T20:38:29Z")
> [@](#): > > The word “almost” is unnecessary in that sentence. I parsed that as meaning that psychics almost never offer their services, or that law enforcement almost never accepts. On the rare occasion when they do, of course, the “assistance” is worthless, but they do at least occasionally receive and accept the offer. It’s like the song says: “Some kinds of help are the kind of help that helping’s all about, and some kinds of help are the kind of help we all can do without”. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/22 "2011-03-06T20:41:57Z")
Psychics still frequently make public declarations or predictions about UNSUBS, whether the police actually pay them any mind or not. My point was that they don’t need the subject present to cold read. ---
**Author:** ![Nathan\_E.Zephyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/dc4da7/32.png) [@Nathan\_E.Zephyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nathan_E.Zephyr)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/23 "2011-03-06T21:06:19Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I parsed that as meaning that psychics almost never offer their services, or that law enforcement almost never accepts. On the rare occasion when they do, of course, the “assistance” is worthless, but they do at least occasionally receive and accept the offer. Actually, in reality, psychic “assistance” goes in the same folder with random nutjobs who claim responsibility for Hurricane Katrina, and similar crazy talk. No D.A. would ever present any psychic tip as factual evidence, since it cannot help, and would likely harm, the potential for future prosecution. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/24 "2011-03-06T21:17:24Z")
> [@ianzin](#): > > Within the trade, ‘hot’ denotes using information obtained in advance (either covertly or otherwise) and ‘cold’ denotes giving a reading without this advantage. It has nothing to do with utilising feedback obtained _during_ the reading, which is part of standard cold reading technique. So what would “warm” be? Minimal advance information? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/25 "2011-03-06T23:14:45Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Psychics do it all the time when they “assist” law enforcement. > [@Nathan\_E.Zephyr](#): > > As someone with previous experience in criminal investigative matters, let me state for the record that “psychic assistance” almost never happens, and the widespread cliche is mainly perpetuated by the psychics themselves. > [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > The word “almost” is unnecessary in that sentence. Clearly it is. The fake assistance you think (fake-) happens all the time doesn’t happen all the time, not even fake-happen. See? ---
**Author:** ![sleestak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/919ad9/32.png) [@sleestak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleestak)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/26 "2011-03-06T23:29:16Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > I know that psychics don’t really assist law enforcement, hence the scare quotes over “assist.” > > I imagine criminal profilers would be offended by the comparison, but so what? That doesn’t make the comparson invalid, and they have no better success rate than psychics. Got a cite for that? Slee ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/27 "2011-03-06T23:32:05Z")
> [@sleestak](#): > > Got a cite for that? > > Slee Show me a single example of a crime ever being solved by profiling. ---
**Author:** ![ricksummon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ricksummon/32/3333_2.png) [@ricksummon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ricksummon)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2011, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/28 "2011-03-06T23:44:43Z")
If psychology cannot reliably predict human behavior, then how does cold reading _itself_ work in the first place? Don’t cold reading and other confidence games exploit certain flaws in human psychology that are found in a large percentage of the population? ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2011, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/29 "2011-03-07T03:20:13Z")
I’m not aware that criminal profiling is ever conducted in the serious belief that they’ll “find the killer.” While they do go through the motions and brief the investigators, good profilers know that their usefulness, if any, will come at the end of the case, when the profile can be used as circumstantial evidence during trial. That’s my impression, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2011, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/30 "2011-03-07T17:00:49Z")
I don’t place criminal profiling on the same level as astrology- rather, I think profiling by a competent psychologist can provide some useful guidelines. ALL of us “profile,” and in many professions, that’s a useful skill. A salesman learns from experience how to tell the people who are really looking to buy from those who are just browsing, a waitress learns to tell which patrons will tip more if she flirts a little, a criminal lawyer learns to tell which witnesses he needs to badger and which ones he needs to charm. There are certain traits, cues and signals we all give off and people judge us (“profile” us) on them all the time. That CAN be a useful tool. The problem comes when we get too enamored of our own cleverness, and when we start to think of useful generalities as hard science. It may be useful to know that 94% of serial arsonists are white males in their twenties (psst- I made that up! I have no idea what the actual percentage is!)… but if all the tangible evidence points to a Hispanic female in her Fifties, it would be STUPID to rule her out as a suspect just because she doesn’t fit a profile. But that DOES happen. To use an example I’ve used before, the Beltway Snipers eluded capture in part because law enforcement was wedded to the notion that the killer was a white loner, whcih meant no one paid attention to a suspicious looking pair of black men. A profile may be useful to cops who already have some leads, evidence and suspects. But it’s foolish and dangerous to START with a profile and then try to make the evidence and suspects fit that profile. ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/31 "2011-03-08T03:34:39Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Show me a single example of a crime ever being solved by profiling. **Diogenes** , you’re the one who claimed that criminal profilers are no more successful than self-proclaimed psychics. I think it’s only fair to ask if you have a cite for that claim. Personally, I don’t put much stock in criminal profilers either. This doesn’t necessarily mean that profilers perform no better than those who claim to have psychic abilities. If you’re going to make that specific claim, then it’s only fair to ask if you have a citation for it. Unless, of course, you think that people must always assume that **Diogenes the Cynic** is correct by default. Do you? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/32 "2011-03-08T03:45:39Z")
> [@JThunder](#): > > **Diogenes** , you’re the one who claimed that criminal profilers are no more successful than self-proclaimed psychics. I think it’s only fair to ask if you have a cite for that claim. My cite is that they’ve never solved a crime. ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/33 "2011-03-08T03:48:03Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > My cite is that they’ve never solved a crime. Do you have a cite for that claim? If not, then you’re engaging in circular reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/34 "2011-03-08T04:22:58Z")
How am I supposed to cite a negative? It should be pretty easy to prove me wrong. ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/35 "2011-03-08T06:07:16Z")
I’m not trying to prove you wrong. As I specifically said, I don’t put much stock in criminal profiling either. I am, however, asking you to substantiate your own claim. Or is this yet another case in which you simply assumed some tenet to be true, and then challenged other people to prove you wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/36 "2011-03-08T06:43:37Z")
Mya claim is substantiated by the fact that criminal profiling has never solved a crime. Your request for a cite is bizarre. How do you cite that something has never happened? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/37 "2011-03-08T12:18:37Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Mya claim is substantiated by the fact that criminal profiling has never solved a crime. Your request for a cite is bizarre. How do you cite that something has never happened? Why, by listing every single crime in the history of the world that they didn’t solve, of course. If you decide to take this course, please do so off-site, and provide a link-the SDMB doesn’t have the hard drive space for such a silly endeavor. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/38 "2011-03-08T12:22:44Z")
> [@JThunder](#): > > I’m not trying to prove you wrong. As I specifically said, I don’t put much stock in criminal profiling either. > > I am, however, asking you to substantiate your own claim. Or is this yet another case in which you simply assumed some tenet to be true, and then challenged other people to prove you wrong? If I made the claim that there are no black mice in the world, which would make more sense: 1. I should be made to show you all the mice in the world to prove my point, or 2. Someone who disagrees with my theory should produce a single black mouse? ---
**Author:** ![C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b2d939/32.png) [@C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C_K_Dexter_Haven)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/39 "2011-03-08T12:28:27Z")
> [@Nametag](#): > > I’m not aware that criminal profiling is ever conducted in the serious belief that they’ll “find the killer.” While they do go through the motions and brief the investigators, good profilers know that their usefulness, if any, will come at the end of the case, when the profile can be used as circumstantial evidence during trial. That’s my impression, anyway. I think Ian covered this pretty well. If the cops have five suspects and one of them fits the profile, then they might spend more time/attention on that one; they wouldn’t ignore the other four. And I can’t imagine that profiling would hold up as circumstantial evidence. Anyone offering evidence that “In 95% of such cases, the perpetrator is a black teenager” would be used by the other side as saying that the remaining 5% is “reasonable doubt.” ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670/40 "2011-03-08T12:54:55Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > “He has an IQ of over 105.” “He likes to masturbate.” (Those last two are “Barnum Statements,” i.e they are true of pretty much everybody) Let’s see a cite that pretty much everybody has an IQ over 105. Regards, Shodan [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-criminal-profiling-basically-cold-reading-with-a-special-call-out-to-ianzin/573670.md?page=3)