# Is Gary Johnson going to split the conservative vote and throw the election to Clinton? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353 "2016-06-14T15:14:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/21 "2016-06-15T03:36:08Z")
Anyone who’s wondering how well Gary Johnson will do in the general election should watch the [following interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdkznU2IvfU) of him by Samantha Bee. No offence to his supporters, but this guy isn’t electable. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/22 "2016-06-15T05:05:34Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But I don’t think anyone outside of the truly delusional think Johnson is going to win the election. So I think a lot of conservatives might vote for Johnson as a way of registering their dislike of Trump without having to vote for Clinton. 50 years ago (:eek:) I worked for the Conservative Party in New York, and this is exactly how we got our votes. We certainly didn’t have any easy to characterize positions or in 1966 a charismatic candidate. Before you condemn me, we’d be damn socialists in today’s climate. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/23 "2016-06-15T18:38:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Also no but I will add … most of those saying Johnson will or would otherwise just stay home. Some (like our Addie) would vote Clinton over Trump and still will if they think it is close in their state. A lot depends on his level of support. Normally, third parties are around 3-5% in pre election polls and fall to 1% or even lower when the actual voting happens. But when third parties are in double digits, they tend to actually perform pretty close to their polling. The reason is pretty obvious, IMO: once you are demonstrating a certain level of support consistently, the media and voters take you as a serious candidate. It’s not longer just a protest vote. So if Johnson is at 10% or above heading into October, he probably gets at least 6-7%(which I believe was John Anderson’s result in 1980). ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/24 "2016-06-15T19:50:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The reason is pretty obvious, IMO: once you are demonstrating a certain level of support consistently, the media and voters take you as a serious candidate. Being taken seriously is the worst thing that could happen to Libertarians. They thrive best when all people know about their beliefs is a few platitudes. If a Libertarian candidate was ever a serious possibility, it would result in the media reporting the Libertarian platform in depth and the general public response would be “They believe what?” ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/25 "2016-06-15T20:02:02Z")
I saw Gary Johnson give an interview the other night, first time I laid eyes on him. I like him, he’s got a pleasant aura of goofy. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/26 "2016-06-15T20:10:33Z")
I don’t see it throwing the election to Clinton. I think this election is Clinton’s to lose. The only way I see her not winning is if her idiot supporters allow this election to become a referendum on guns. If that happens, Sieg Hiel, Herr Trump. Otherwise, Clinton wins in a Reaganesque landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/27 "2016-06-15T20:44:07Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I saw Gary Johnson give an interview the other night, first time I laid eyes on him. I like him, he’s got a pleasant aura of goofy. I can’t call somebody goofy if they intentionally throw away a peace offering from their primary opponent. I call them an asshole. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/28 "2016-06-15T20:58:07Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I saw Gary Johnson give an interview the other night, first time I laid eyes on him. I like him, he’s got a pleasant aura of goofy. Yeah, he’s probably a great guy. He’d probably be a great CEO of a hemp clothing line. I wouldn’t vote for him for president. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/29 "2016-06-15T21:04:37Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > I can’t call somebody goofy if they intentionally throw away a peace offering from their primary opponent. I call them an asshole. I don’t know. It’s kind of shitty but apparently immediately after the “peace offering” the guy started attacking Johnson’s preferred running mate. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/30 "2016-06-15T22:36:55Z")
The Libertarian Party got 0.4% of the vote in 2008 and 1.0% in 2016. Although many people are using them as a “none of the above” in polls, there’s no real indication that Johnson’s actual percentage will be out of line with history. Even less so for Stein. Clinton will beat Trump because she will get a majority of the electoral vote. Nothing else will matter. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/31 "2016-06-15T22:47:35Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > The only way I see her not winning is if her idiot supporters allow this election to become a referendum on guns. Don’t be so sure of which side would win a referendum on guns. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2016, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/32 "2016-06-15T23:00:16Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Clinton will beat Trump because she will get a majority of the electoral vote. And that will be because she’s a respectable Democrat. If you accept the premise that a state that has gone D in the last \*six \*elections will go D again this time, that’s 242 EV’s right there. Any R, not just Trump, has to virtually sweep the rest, and that obviously cannot happen. I’m surprised they haven’t started the bill to amend the Electoral College out of the Constitution, unless it’s because their Senators are largely from states that would lose influence there and they think they couldn’t sell it back home. Well, how’s that built-in losing going for ya? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/33 "2016-06-16T00:15:03Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > And that will be because she’s a respectable Democrat. If you accept the premise that a state that has gone D in the last \*six \*elections will go D again this time, that’s 242 EV’s right there. Any R, not just Trump, has to virtually sweep the rest, and that obviously cannot happen. Yes. I understand this is the worst possible thing to say here. All people want to do is follow the latest poll and ask about ridiculously unlikely possibilities. But the polls are meaningless. They’ve been so all year. They will continue to be. Please, please stop your focus on polls. To mangle Lombardi: Electoral votes aren’t everything. They’re the only thing. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/34 "2016-06-16T00:19:20Z")
And for completeness, the [six-straight-elections](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-republican-electoral-map-20160502-story.html) Republican states add up to 102 EV’s. Each of them may plausibly not make it seven, the way Trump is going. ---
**Author:** ![Linden\_Arden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@Linden\_Arden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Linden_Arden)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/35 "2016-06-16T01:00:15Z")
I am a liberal/libertarian and will vote for Johnson (voted for Obama twice). Hillary can win my vote by openly endorsing the TPP and Free Trade in general. I despise both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Hillary could be acceptable to me. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/36 "2016-06-16T02:48:39Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > He can charade stupid and mean. > > Trump extends index finger: “First word!” > Trump places two fingers on forearm: “Two syllables!” > Trump extends index finger, points to self: “Asshole!” Really, Trump can communicate his entire message to the rest of the world with just one finger. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/37 "2016-06-16T02:53:00Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > No, because the people who want to abandon Trump are conservatives, especially social conservatives. Johnson and Weld are liberals who offer those people nothing. Their available choices, given present-day reality, are for the government to actively support liberal social values they hate or for the government to just shrug and butt out. Johnson and Weld offer them the best option that is actually on the table. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/38 "2016-06-16T03:28:12Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Their available choices, given present-day reality, are for the government to actively support liberal social values they hate or for the government to just shrug and butt out. Johnson and Weld offer them the best option that is actually on the table. Since all people with an ounce of brains characterized Bernie Sanders, who isn’t a Democrat but caucused with them, as having no chance of getting anything on his agenda accomplished because he didn’t play ball with anybody, why would anybody with an ounce of brains think that a president outside of the existing party structure have any more chance? Or are you saying that people who would vote for a Libertarian don’t have an ounce of brains? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/39 "2016-06-16T04:21:16Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > … But the polls are meaningless. They’ve been so all year. They will continue to be. Please, please stop your focus on polls. … Really no. Unless there is a major realignment (and there is no evidence there is) then _most_ states will stay _roughly_ as far above and below the national mean as they have been. Electoral results will roughly follow national popular vote results. Under most scenarios with current demographics a 50/50 popular vote election will go Democratic. That said in a 50/50 election the devil’s in the details with modest relative changes in a few states (and we all know those states) mattering lots. But if national results are the Democratic candidate +3? Those states go Democratic pretty reliably. D+6 so does NC and maybe GA. And if you drill down and get polls by demographic groups and have a good sense of who is or is not a likely voter in a particular cycle … predictions are better yet for state by state, made easy by that 538 app. Yes, national polls will have lots of noise until at least August, individual polls can be oversold in significance, and with adequate volume of polling Wang’s aggregation of state polling data approach is likely better, but no, polls are not “meaningless”. Even regarding third party candidates and their potential impact. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353/40 "2016-06-16T16:31:03Z")
> [@By how much is Trump over-performing, in terms of polling?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/5): > > How can any thinking person still, in this day and age, believe any poll released? > > I thought by now pretty much everyone knew how easily manipulated and misleading they can be, by design. > > Is anyone really being swayed by the numbers of any of the numerous polls released each day? > [@DSeid](#): > > Really no. > > Unless there is a major realignment (and there is no evidence there is) then _most_ states will stay _roughly_ as far above and below the national mean as they have been. > > Electoral results will roughly follow national popular vote results. Under most scenarios with current demographics a 50/50 popular vote election will go Democratic. That said in a 50/50 election the devil’s in the details with modest relative changes in a few states (and we all know those states) mattering lots. But if national results are the Democratic candidate +3? Those states go Democratic pretty reliably. D+6 so does NC and maybe GA. > > And if you drill down and get polls by demographic groups and have a good sense of who is or is not a likely voter in a particular cycle … predictions are better yet for state by state, made easy by that 538 app. > > Yes, national polls will have lots of noise until at least August, individual polls can be oversold in significance, and with adequate volume of polling Wang’s aggregation of state polling data approach is likely better, but no, polls are not “meaningless”. Even regarding third party candidates and their potential impact. I quoted elbows from the [By how much is Trump over-performing, in terms of polling?](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=19410011#post19410011) thread and DSeid because I want to emphasize that my position is in between. It’s true that polling accuracy is probably at the lowest point in the last 50 years, a period in which experience and money overcame most of the many problems that polling inherently has. That understanding has shredded over the last few years. It’s much harder to poll over mobile phones than landlines. People are less likely to comply. They’ve less likely even to answer, since they can now see who is calling. (People tend to be polite and hate to hang up, especially when asked for their opinions.) The population is far more diverse than ever before and getting representative samples of thousands of subgroups is nearly impossible. Political opinions are far more partisan while at the same time far more people call themselves independents than ever before. After inadequate samples are weighted to an imaginary standard, fine details are lost. I’ve done door-to-door and phone bank polling. It’s an art and a mystery. And yet polls do converge on the actual results a great majority of the time. How can this be? We need to remember that those of us who have been talking about the presidential election for a year are the minority. Most people will not really tune in until after the conventions. Until then, opinions are often based on name recognition and party labels. Moreover, only a smidge over 50% of eligible voters bother to vote. Some polls differentiate between all voters and likely voters but nobody can be sure who’s an actual voter until November 9. The polls on November 7 will be far more accurate than any today, at all levels. (Remember “Dewey Defeats Truman”? The expense of running polls was ended two weeks before a seemingly certain election, but many people made up their minds in those two weeks.) My position has been consistent. Any individual poll this far back from the election is meaningless. It may turn out to be right, but nobody can know that. Putting together a number of polls and averaging them knocks off outliers and bad data, but doesn’t rise to the level of accuracy. Trends of averaged polls are a bit better still for the same reason. The RCP chart of daily averages shows that the polls have been consistent and yet volatile. The differences between Clinton and Trump have been utterly obvious from the beginning and Clinton has never fallen behind - yet Trump has risen to tie her on four separate and widely spaced occasions since September. Anyone who talked about their being tied at any of those times was spouting nonsense, no matter that one form of the data backed it up. Polls do work. But. They work best for the largest elections with the greatest pool to sample from. They work best closest to the election when most people have made up their minds. They work best with two and only two choices. They are not worthless to the parties involved, because they get information on how to apply strategy and money in the future. They are meaningless to casual watchers, and especially anyone who claims that a poll has significance for the final outcome. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-gary-johnson-going-to-split-the-conservative-vote-and-throw-the-election-to-clinton/757353.md?page=3)