# Is global warming falsifiable? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 6, 2014, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786 "2014-05-06T07:30:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/321 "2014-10-13T03:12:14Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > All irony aside, if Cohen et al 2012 and 2014 is actually right, things are going to get ugly. For those lucky enough to have completely ignored all climate related threads, and especially [the one in the Pit](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=16906759#post16906759), and actually don’t know what _Cohen et al_ is about, it’s simple enough. I’ve only mentioned it like three dozen times so far. And wolfpup knows exactly what I mean, we argued about it at length before. Their theory is in essence, “the increasingly colder boreal winters, with increasing snowfall, can not be explained as natural variability, but are caused by the low arctic sea ice levels, leading to early and heavy snowfall, leading to changes in the circumpolar vortex, so that the trend of colder boreal winters is an unexpected feedback from global warming”. If this is true, then the winters are going to continue to get “worse”, as in more extreme cold, more snow, and that is an ugly scenario for global warming. If they are correct, and global warming is actually the cause, then we can expect the trend to continue. As the arctic continues to warm, the boreal winters will get worse, that term of course meaning “worse for the majority of the world that lives where the boreal winters matter”. As an added ironic bitch slap in the face, this will mean demand for fossil fuels for heating will increase. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/322 "2014-10-13T04:10:56Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Their theory is in essence, “the increasingly colder boreal winters, with increasing snowfall, can not be explained as natural variability, but are caused by the low arctic sea ice levels, leading to early and heavy snowfall, leading to changes in the circumpolar vortex, so that the trend of colder boreal winters is an unexpected feedback from global warming”. And this demonstrates that the concept of asymmetry has not been grasped. It is still a short time span comparatively speaking but this cold in the north east seems to be a result of the warming elsewhere; the vortex is then, thanks to the changed jet stream, moving a bit south and moving cold air that normally should had stayed in the north pole to do a number on the north east. While at the same time the west and even Alaska get warmer. **The Bad Astronomer** explains it too: > **[No, the Polar Vortex Does Not Disprove Global Warming](https://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/08/climate_change_the_north_polar_vortex_and_global_warming.html)** > > The picture above, taken on Jan. 6, 2014, by the NOAA’s GOES East weather satellite, shows what a big chunk of the U.S. knows all too well: the souther ... > [@](#): > > It’s also brought an onslaught of outright and outrageous anti-science. Some climate-change deniers have apparently decided that the only way to combat the vortex is to blow a vast amount of hot air, actually using this cold snap to argue against global warming. > > Let’s be clear: As Chris Mooney wrote here on Slate, winter does not disprove global warming. Yes, the temperatures are cold here in the U.S., but most of Europe is doing just fine. And while deniers chatter about the cold weather, they forget about the adjective “global”: Australia—where it’s summer—is having a massive heat wave, with some temperatures peaking over 50 C (125 F). In fact, 2013 was the hottest year on record in Australia, with temperature records broken all over the continent. > > And nothing the deniers say about the polar vortex and frigid temps does anything to change the overwhelming evidence that the world is, on average, warming up, and we’re the cause. > > In fact, it’s even possible that this event is due to global warming. Climate scientists are still working on this idea, but warming in the Arctic is melting ice and creating more surface area of water. This is darker than ice, so this open water absorbs more heat from the Sun, which can affect the way air moves in the troposphere and stratosphere. It’s possible this in turn affects the vortex, causing the boundaries to weaken, dropping cold air south. As usual, it’s difficult to pin any given weather event on the changing climate (we do sometimes see dips in the vortex, though usually not this severe). Still, as the climate does change, we’ll see more extreme weather events. > > Using this event to try to disprove global warming is the height of anti-scientific crackpottery. You might as well say that the existence of night disproves sunlight. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/323 "2014-10-13T04:42:30Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > And this demonstrates that the concept of asymmetry has not been grasped. Humorous, since I introduced the concept of asymmetric change, when your objections to the very idea of colder boreal winters first arose. You denied it was happening, remember? > [@GIGObuster](#): > > While at the same time the west and even Alaska get warmer. While the alarmists will deny deny deny, the 15 year trend shows the problem with “well at least Alaska is still warming”. The twenty year trend does as well. Hell, Cohen et al used 1988-2010, and found a clear trend. Why is any of this on topic? The new head of GISS climate knows. He is even an author of the research. [Apr. 23, 2001](http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20010423/) > [@](#): > > Greenhouse gases are the main reason why the northern hemisphere is warming quicker during winter-time months than the rest of the world, according to new computer climate model results by NASA scientists. And certainly if the last 15 years showed a warming trend for NH winters, that would be shoved down the collective throat of the world as proof of global warming. Since it didn’t keep warming, not the cooling is proof of global warming. Nothing can disprove global warming. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/324 "2014-10-13T04:48:52Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Humorous, since I introduced the concept of asymmetric change, when your objections to the very idea of colder boreal winters first arose. You denied it was happening, remember? Can not know everything, but I can learn; and no, it is not just me, but the scientists who reported this. It was not your idea. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > While the alarmists will deny deny deny, the 15 year trend shows the problem with “well at least Alaska is still warming”. > > The twenty year trend does as well. Hell, Cohen et al used 1988-2010, and found a clear trend. > > Why is any of this on topic? The new head of GISS climate knows. He is even an author of the research. > > [Apr. 23, 2001](http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20010423/) That is because the warming of the pole is also included, last time I checked the North pole regions are still the northern hemisphere. And Dyson is still under the bus. **And in the end Gavin Schmidt is not a nobody** regardless of your accusations, his peers decided he was the one needed to lead GISS, not you. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > And certainly if the last 15 years showed a warming trend for NH winters, that would be shoved down the collective throat of the world as proof of global warming. > > Since it didn’t keep warming, not the cooling is proof of global warming. > > Nothing can disprove global warming. Nothing can refute the fact that there are more seasons than just winter, and in more places than the north east. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/325 "2014-10-13T21:38:44Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Their theory is in essence, “the increasingly colder boreal winters, with increasing snowfall, can not be explained as natural variability, but are caused by the low arctic sea ice levels, leading to early and heavy snowfall, leading to changes in the circumpolar vortex, so that the trend of colder boreal winters is an unexpected feedback from global warming”. > > If this is true, then the winters are going to continue to get “worse”, as in more extreme cold, more snow, and that is an ugly scenario for global warming. > > If they are correct, and global warming is actually the cause, then we can expect the trend to continue. As the arctic continues to warm, the boreal winters will get worse, that term of course meaning “worse for the majority of the world that lives where the boreal winters matter”. > > As an added ironic bitch slap in the face, this will mean demand for fossil fuels for heating will increase. Thanks for putting Cohen at al in your own words so we can examine it critically. And clearly, you’re either getting your information from denialist blogs and haven’t read any of the literature, or you didn’t understand the first thing about it. I hardly even know where to begin. Let’s look [at this wonderful quote from you](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17807686&postcount=305), which I mentioned when I asked you (twice) to explain how Cohen at al support this: “**If the thirty year trend (in 5 years time) shows a continued cooling, then there is going to be some real concern, not because the theory was so wrong, but over what, if anything, we can do about it.**” This encapsulates wonderfully your laughably ridiculous claims – in many posts over many recent months – that (a) the earth has been cooling, not warming, for decades, (b) we’re heading into some kind of catastrophic global deep freeze, and that (c) therefore global warming theory is now conclusively proven “wrong”. Where does Cohen say anything like that? Where does he say anything even remotely like the bolded quote above? This also encapsulates perfectly your unwillingness or inability to engage in an intellectually honest discussion about this topic. Here’s what Cohen is actually saying: he’s confirming the magnitude and continued progression of global warming, he’s confirming the magnitude and continued progression of Arctic amplification just as predicted by theory, and he’s hypothesizing possible causes for recent short-term NH mid-latitude winter cooling in some regions, as a refinement to models to try to provide a better understanding of regional climate variations. As Cohen points out in his latest (2014) paper, long-term mid-latitude winter temperatures are consistent with warmer-winter projections, while some of the shorter-term ones are not, and are sensitive to timeframes, spatial extent, and the effects of natural variability. There is no consensus at all on what, if any, systemic processes may be affecting NH winter temperatures, and indeed Cohen himself is quick to point out (this is a direct quote) “evidence demonstrating _ **no robust statistical or dynamical link** _ between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude climate variability has also been presented”. But it’s important from a knowledge-advancement perspective to establish whether such systemic processes may exist, or else to conclusively rule them out; as Cohen says in summing up, “More and better observations (for example, of ocean–ice–atmosphere energy exchange, cloud cover and troposphere–stratosphere coupling) would not only improve our understanding of the Arctic and its climate, but also help to elucidate the mechanisms of atmospheric response to Arctic amplification and better constrain the models.” It’s also important to note, as already said above, the regional and temporal variability of winter temperatures. Many of us think of last winter as being an unusually cold one, for example, but that’s because many of us live in east-central North America where it was. In most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, however, including practically the whole of Europe and Asia, [winter temperatures were far above normal](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1106&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob). Furthermore, not only are we talking about uncertain short-term effects that, if they exist at all, only affect particular areas at particular times, but we’re also talking about effects that are brought on by generally rapid warming and a strong increase in the earth’s net energy balance, so while extreme weather will be a continuing problem, regional cooling phenomena are likely to be self-limiting. As [Cohen said recently](http://www.iop.org/news/12/jan/page_53414.html), > [@](#): > > In my mind there is no doubt that the globe is getting warmer and this _ **will favour warmer temperatures in all seasons and in all locations** _; however, I do think that the increasing trend in snow cover has led to regional cooling as discussed in the paper and I see no reason why this won’t continue into the near future. Also if it continues to get much warmer in the fall, precipitation that currently falls as snow will fall as rain instead, _ **eliminating the winter cooling** _. In short, Cohen is _ **NOT** _ saying any of the things you claimed he said, and it’s not useful or productive to put ridiculous ass-backwards interpretations on this kind of normal incremental research, and couple it with the worst kind of unscientific hyperbole to try to make some unscientific lunatic point. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/326 "2014-10-13T21:54:59Z")
A good quote from Gavin Schmidt that is directly pertinent to the above: > [@](#): > > On average winters are getting warmer and will continue to do so. Discussing other possibilities for influences on circulation patterns – which are quite speculative – is certainly not the same thing as stating “it will be colder”. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I have yet to find these arguments persuasive. Unfortunately though you are correct in your underlying point that these perfectly normal discussions are being presented in the media as being swings between extreme points (as if all scientists collectively change their minds every time a paper with an opposite point of view is published). The public are surely going to be confused – but this is not the fault of scientists. It is much more a problem in the media, who are very happy to find to post-hoc explanations to trumpet whenever something happens. Regardless of how well supported an idea is the headline always says “Scientists say…”. [This](http://www.phdcomics.com/comics.php?n=1174) is also directly pertinent to the above – and very accurate! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/327 "2014-10-13T23:35:28Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > A good quote from Gavin Schmidt that is directly pertinent to the above While you didn’t provide the source (very poor form that), it’s easy enough to find, since it only appears in one web page. > **[RealClimate: Cold winter in a world of warming?](https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/12/cold-winter-in-a-world-of-warming/comment-page-6/)** > > RealClimate: Last June, during the International Polar Year conference, James Overland suggested that there are more cold and snowy winters to come. He argued that the exceptionally cold snowy 2009-2010 winter in Europe had a connection with the loss... Looking at it in context, always a good idea, it’s quite interesting. The question is straight forward. > [@](#): > > oakwood says: > 26 Dec 2010 at 3:57 PM > It is notable that the prediction that global warming may cause colder winters in Europe is only news when the winters in Europe become colder than usual. While we were having milder than average winters,then these were presented as evidence of global warming. You need to be careful. What does global warming science predict for the next 5 years (on average). Colder,or warmer? From what you say today, it should be colder. But what will you say if we now have another spell of milder winters in Europe? That they’re due to global warming? In essence, he is talking about the obvious problem. **If winters warm, it’s AGW, if they cool, it’s AGW** > [@](#): > > [Response: Who is “you”? On average winters are getting warmer and will continue to do so. - gavin] So in an obvious blunder, he stated winters were getting warmer, and that trend would continue. He was, and still is, wrong about that. Can’t blame anyone, because at the time, who could have guessed what would happen? Certainly the previous few winters were handwaved away as “chance”, natural variation, all kinds of excuses. But the trend continued. It’s super ironic that when he wrote that, Dec 2010, the NH was receiving what was at the time, the most snow ever recorded. (that record has since been shattered) He also couldn’t have know Dec 2010 would shatter other records for cold. Or that 2014 would be so much worse. Remember that in Apr. 23, 2001 Gavin boldy proclaimed > [@](#): > > Greenhouse gases are the main reason why the northern hemisphere is warming quicker during winter-time months than the rest of the world, according to new computer climate model results by NASA scientists. Warming boreal winters are a prime prediction of the theory. The feedbacks from the warming arctic, and boreal winters is a key feedback mechanism to produce even warmer winters. So we see both a denial it’s happening, as well as efforts to now say it is a prediction of global warming. Because global warming can have it both ways. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/328 "2014-10-13T23:43:40Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > In most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, however, including practically the whole of Europe and Asia, [winter temperatures were far above normal](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1106&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob). Denial, it’s not just a river in Egypt. [January 2014](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=anoms&mean_gen=01&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=rob) [February 2014](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=anoms&mean_gen=02&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=rob) Note how the NH cold was so cold, the global land mean was actually - 0.2 C below the 1980-2010 average. This doesn’t actually show just how unusually cold the hard hit areas were. [The 15 year trend](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=02&year1=2002&year2=2014&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=rob) shows just how much colder large portions of the NH have become, in the dead of winter. Remember, it should look [more like this trend](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=02&year1=1980&year2=1995&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=rob). Now cue the refrain of “cherry picking” and “you don’t understand science” ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/329 "2014-10-13T23:46:41Z")
While the NCDC links don’t work right, you can check and see for yourself. [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/1/12/1985-2014](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/1/12/1985-2014) December 2010 (when gavin responded on the blog) was the coldest December in 30 years, for the NH land temperatures. [The trend is still showing cooling](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/1/2/1985-2014). ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/330 "2014-10-13T23:49:06Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > So we see both a denial it’s happening, as well as efforts to now say it is a prediction of global warming. Because global warming can have it both ways. Nah, once again the experts are not impressed with the ones that ignore the other three seasons. [http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/nasa-global-warming-goes-on-140121.htm](http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/nasa-global-warming-goes-on-140121.htm) And Gavin Schmith is referring to the average and trend, not just the north west and the recent years. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > Now cue the refrain of “cherry picking” and “you don’t understand science” Indeed, And that is because FXMatermind will **never** find any quote from a scientist at NASA/GISS (or any other scientific organizations) supporting his cherry pick. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/331 "2014-10-14T00:14:35Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > In essence, he is talking about the obvious problem. If winters warm, it’s AGW, if they cool, it’s AGW No, the “problem” is only in your fantasies. It works like this: if the planet is warming, it’s global warming. By definition of “global” and “warming”. If it’s conclusively due to anthropogenic carbon emissions, it’s anthropogenic global warming. By definition of “anthropogenic”. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > So in an obvious blunder, he stated winters were getting warmer, and that trend would continue. He was, and still is, wrong about that. No blunder. He said exactly the same thing as I quoted your buddy Cohen saying in the post that you completely ignored: “… there is no doubt that the globe is getting warmer and this will favour warmer temperatures in all seasons and in all locations.” The key is “on average” and “over the long term”. But keep ignoring the facts. Maybe instead of attacking Gavin – and ignoring the facts – you should try addressing the long preceding post where I provided actual substantive information, and which demonstrated your completely inept misrepresentation of Cohen’s work in which you pretty much got it exactly backwards. I quoted Gavin just to show how common these misrepresentations are among those who either don’t understand the science or have some vested interest in distorting it. Given the current conversation, it was a very relevant observation. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/332 "2014-10-14T00:21:05Z")
[http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/](http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/) > [@](#): > > Why are winters warming up so much faster over Northern Hemisphere continents than over the rest of the globe? A new study by NASA researchers in the June 3 issue of the journal Nature is the first to link the well-documented large degree of North America and Eurasia winter warming and the associated wind changes to rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. And there you have another example of what the consensus science said. Greenhouse forcing produces warmer NH winters, this is a prediction of the greenhouse theory. > [@](#): > > Drew Shindell, an atmospheric scientist from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, NY, found that the large warming that has occurred during Northern Hemisphere winters over the last 30 years — up to nine degrees Fahrenheit, a full 10 times warmer than the global average 0.9 degree Fahrenheit warming — is likely a result of human activities that increase greenhouse gases. Warmer winters will bring more wet weather to Europe and Western North America, Shindell said, with Western Europe the worst hit by storms coming off the Atlantic. Once again, warmer winters. Not colder winters, with increased snow and ice. > [@](#): > > Using a computer climate model to try and understand where the warming over the past three decades is coming from, Shindell and colleagues discovered that in the model, **increasing greenhouse gases cause stronger spiraling winds over the North Pole** , a phenomenon called the polar vortex, that change the normal Northern Hemisphere climate. “Northern Hemisphere winters have been warming up for the past 30 years,” Shindell said. “It’s a big concern to know why this happens.” And there is the view of what warming causes. An increase in the winds, the polar vortex. Which causes warmer winters. > [@](#): > > Shindell found a probable reason for warming Northern Hemisphere winters by studying the polar vortex in his climate model. Over the North Pole, there is a polar vortex created in the stratosphere, the part of the atmosphere that starts more than six miles above the Earth’s surface. The vortex arises because the North Pole is completely dark and extremely cold in the winter, creating a large temperature difference between the polar region and the mid-latitudes. > > The temperature difference makes for a large pressure contrast that forces east-west traveling winds into a spiraling whirlpool in the stratosphere. And as the mid-latitudes warm up due to greenhouse gases, the temperature difference gets larger and the vortex stronger. Unless you missed it, last winter, when the bottom fell out of the temperatures, weaker winds, a weaker polar vortex, was blamed for it being so fucking cold. Weak winds allowed the cold to “spill out of the arctic”, but global warming was blamed for the weaker winds, which once more brings us to the essential problem. If the winter had been warm, warmer, that would also be attributed to global warming. The problem is a little more than obvious. If you claim “the science is settled”, and it’s all agreed on, and the consensus is right, and anybody who questions anything is some kind of “science denier”, you just might miss out on some serious shit going down. Like how the consensus can attribute both warmer winters, and colder winters, to global warming. But unlike the Orwellian world, there is no memory hole to make the past go away. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/333 "2014-10-14T00:26:28Z")
And they are not ignored, it does not deny at all that globally that is not the case, and unlike you the scientists do not wilfully ignore the other seasons. So how is the quest for any scientist that supports your cherry pick? ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/334 "2014-10-14T00:27:34Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > In short, Cohen is _ **NOT** _ saying any of the things you claimed he said, . Your fallacy is that you think I attributed my commentary to Cohen, which I certainly did not. Would not. I said if his theory is correct, if the warming is actually causing the colder winter trend, the increase in snow, then we could be in for some serious trouble. If the trend continues, NH winters will be approaching the nightmare of the sixties, or worse, the seventies, when winters became seriously fucking bad. Not everywhere of course, but places that actually matter to our civilized world. Hell, Chicago just had the coldest four month period (Dec-March) ever on record. Ever. If it was isolated, it could be shrugged off, shit happens. But when you look at the trend, and see it was not unexpected, not unusual considering the long term trend, that means something. It’s not a global problem, the winter trends are not like that everywhere of course. But for where it is showing up clearly, denial is not a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/335 "2014-10-14T00:29:57Z")
Lest you forget, in the closed and locked topic I clearly showed using GISS data that the other seasons, mostly, are still warming. That there has been no global cooling for most of the year, but that the winter trend is so fucking much colder, it actually is the cause of the flat line, or slight cooling trend, for the annual values. Globally. That is something you won’t see anywhere else. Yet. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/336 "2014-10-14T00:32:49Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > If it was isolated, it could be shrugged off, shit happens. But when you look at the trend, and see it was not unexpected, not unusual considering the long term trend, that means something. It’s not a global problem, the winter trends are not like that everywhere of course. But for where it is showing up clearly, denial is not a good idea. This is silly, we already reported that scientists do not ignore it and do not deny it. But of course you are denying that. 🙂 > **[No, the Polar Vortex Does Not Disprove Global Warming](https://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/08/climate_change_the_north_polar_vortex_and_global_warming.html)** > > The picture above, taken on Jan. 6, 2014, by the NOAA’s GOES East weather satellite, shows what a big chunk of the U.S. knows all too well: the souther ... > [@](#): > > Let’s be clear: As Chris Mooney wrote here on Slate, winter does not disprove global warming. Yes, the temperatures are cold here in the U.S., but most of Europe is doing just fine. And while deniers chatter about the cold weather, they forget about the adjective “global”: Australia—where it’s summer—is having a massive heat wave, with some temperatures peaking over 50 C (125 F). In fact, 2013 was the hottest year on record in Australia, with temperature records broken all over the continent. > > And nothing the deniers say about the polar vortex and frigid temps does anything to change the overwhelming evidence that the world is, on average, warming up, and we’re the cause. > > In fact, it’s even possible that this event is due to global warming. Climate scientists are still working on this idea, but warming in the Arctic is melting ice and creating more surface area of water. This is darker than ice, so this open water absorbs more heat from the Sun, which can affect the way air moves in the troposphere and stratosphere. It’s possible this in turn affects the vortex, causing the boundaries to weaken, dropping cold air south. As usual, it’s difficult to pin any given weather event on the changing climate (we do sometimes see dips in the vortex, though usually not this severe). Still, as the climate does change, we’ll see more extreme weather events. > > Using this event to try to disprove global warming is the height of anti-scientific crackpottery. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/337 "2014-10-14T01:28:32Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Thanks for putting Cohen at al in your own words so we can examine it critically. I’m pretty sure you are misunderstanding. Cohen et al 2012, 2013 and 2014 are the source of the theoretical mechanism, that might explain why a warming arctic, and reduced arctic sea ice, might be the cause of the widespread boreal cooling trend. It’s my contention that if they are right, and the arctic warming is actually causing changes to the circumpolar winds, and leading to cooling winter trends, then since the warming is continuing, the winter trend might continue. If that is the case, the NH could be facing a continued trend of more destructive and costly winter weather. In essence, if this is true, then global warming is causing dangerous climate change, and it’s happening now. In regards to this topic, this means that global warming is true if winters get warmer, with less snow and more rain. And global warming is true if it means colder winters, with more snow. This is not some sarcastic poke at climate science, it’s actually what is being put forth, probably by the idiot press. Since no climate scientist would ever propose global warming is making it colder in the winter. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/338 "2014-10-14T02:19:32Z")
Let me repeat: I put some effort into describing, [in post #325](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17812761&postcount=325), what Cohen was saying – and significantly, what he was NOT saying – in his papers of the last several years, and provided some quotes from the latest paper and some of his recent informal public comments. There has been no response from you to the substance of that post. You keep telling us how it’s a “problem” that AGW can simultaneously be producing both colder and warmer winters. It’s not. AGW produces all kinds of circulation changes, some more predictable than others, on various timescales and regional extents. Those interested in science follow the data where it leads. Those interested in something else get up on their soapboxes, distort and cherry-pick the data, and pontificate. Cohen is more of a seasonal meteorologist than a climate scientist, but since he’s a good enough investigator and since he’s apparently your hero for some reason, I addressed the substance of his research. The anomalies in NH winter temperatures are at this point short-term and inconsistent regional effects that may or may not be natural variability. AGW always has and always will produce a massive complex of regional and microclimate changes, some of which are important and some not; some of which are random and some of which may be systemic; some of which are predictable but many of which are not. These are usually driven by ocean and atmosphere circulation changes over a wide variety of spatial and temporal timeframes, and their prediction is a tremendous challenge on the boundary between climate and weather, requiring finer levels of granularity in circulation models than we generally have today, with the worst complexities of both. But, contrary to your hysteria, none of it has any bearing on the reality or the basic theory of AGW or its macroscopic predictions. Science is constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of its predictions. What you seem to be interested in is something else. Your hysterically hyperbolic misrepresentation of Cohen’s work and refusal or inability to respond to Cohen’s own statements is typical of someone whose attacks on climate science included the duly noted series of cherry-picked temperature maps, and among other wonders the humorously priceless claim that water vapor [couldn’t possibly be a climate feedback](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17030924&postcount=135) (because otherwise [it would go on forever](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17068419&postcount=1704)), and those things certainly put your scientific _bona fides_ into serious question. I’m not trying to be either insulting or dismissive. Deal with the facts and I’ll be happy to discuss them on an objective level. I haven’t seen much of that from you. I’ve seen things like those noted above, or references to Cohen 2012, 2014, with sarcastic implications that I don’t know even know who Cohen is, and then attempts to represent his research as some kind of prediction of an apocalyptic ice age and the demise of “global warming theory”. Cut the crap and maybe we can have a real discussion. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/339 "2014-10-14T03:02:30Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Those interested in something else get up on their soapboxes, distort and cherry-pick the data, and pontificate. Oh the irony of that statement. So far you haven’t countered what I said. The theory of AGW is the topic. I’ve repeated the same point multiple times. You avoid it. I mention Cohen et al to introduce a new idea, as well as a scientific basis for the cooling boreal winter trend, He plainly says that global warming theory does no predict colder winters. Nor does it explain them. Which is why it’s so interesting. It seems like you are hedging, avoiding the issue. If winters were still showing a clear warming trend, like Gavin talked about in 1999, and 2001, and what the models predicted, you would claim it means the theory is sound. If instead we see boreal winters trending colder, you would claim that is also global warming. There is the essence of this topic. Avoid it all you want. It will still be the essence of the topic. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786/340 "2014-10-14T03:08:47Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > You keep telling us how it’s a “problem” that AGW can simultaneously be producing both colder and warmer winters. It’s not. You are making a logic error. AGW is a theory, it isn’t causing anything. What you mean is the enhanced greenhouse effect, which predicts warming winters, in your view can make boreal winters warmer, or colder, but you can’t say which is will do. That essential point is what you are avoiding. Just saying “it’s not a problem” isn’t an argument. The feedback from warming winters, in the high latitudes, is a key mechanism for global warming. This feedback leads to even more warming, one of the main reasons a small increase from rising CO2 levels is supposed to cause a lot of warming. If it is causing colder boreal winters (Cohen et al etc etc), something by no means settled, then the theory is wrong. Or part of the theory is. This does not mean CO2 or greenhouse warming will stop, doesn’t exist, or doesn’t matter. It just means a key assumption about the consequences may be wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-global-warming-falsifiable/687786.md?page=18)