OK, I’ll try. First off, I’m assuming it’s all politics and semantics until proven otherwise.
Yet I know also that even the greatest changes in history often started out as political compromises that took on a life of their own (Magna Carta, anyone?) - so this alone is not reason enough to rule out the chances of a real change taking place.
So I don’t know.
Second, I think that we may be exaggerating the novelty of the Hamas position. From the original Ha’Aretz article:
(bolding mine)
So, essentially all that Hassan Yousef - if taken in the worst light possible - might be saying here is that Hamas is willing to stop terrorism for a period of time if they gat a Palestinian State in the OT, presumably until they feel strong enough to take on Israel proper. Hassan Yousef himself has, in fact, endorsed this POV earlier today (see here, on Yedioth Ahronot’s internet site [Sorry, Hebrew only]) - my lousy translation of it is:
I suspect that yesterday’s quote was a trial run, to see how the new line flies. Apparently it didn’t fly too well with the Hamas establishment in Lebanon (who expressed “surprise” at Yousef’s statement), so he backed down.
Like I said, it’s all politics.
The good news is that following Arafat’s death, the PA leadership appears to be taking a more pragmatic approach to the situation, and the latest from Hamas indicates that maybe they are being force to change their tune somewhat as well. As I noted above, political compromise has a nasty (or good - depends how you look at it) habit to turn into reality if that is what the population wants.
Does the Palestinian population, post Arafat, want fewer martyrs and more life? Will they truly accept the long term reality of Israel alongside them as along as they get a truly independent state? Will the Plaestinian leadership allow this shift in public opinion to take root and affect their behavior?
(and, as an aside, will the current Israeli government even be able to identify if something like this is really happening, and will it be willing and able to at on it?)
All these are questions to which I have no answer.
After Arafat’s death we are all - leaders and prolls alike - in uncharted waters. I’ve lost my gut feeling for where any particular turn of events may lead us a few weeks or months down the road…
Bottom line, after a tremendously long-winded post, is that I simply don’t know where things are going right now.
Dani