# Is Hillary running to win, or not to lose? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 4, 2015, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968 "2015-08-04T13:25:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/21 "2015-08-04T18:31:56Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > … There is a risk of too many Democrats feeling unenthused about her. But you have to be careful not to generalize your own feelings to the party as a whole, and I strongly suspect that even you will not feel this way come October 2016. You will be fired up to vote for her then. Ket’s see, the last candidate I was fired up to vote for was Barack Obama … in 2008. It was the right choice given the Republican opposition, but I certainly lost any enthusiasm for him. The one before that … I don’t think there was one before that. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/22 "2015-08-04T18:35:44Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Ket’s see, the last candidate I was fired up to vote for was Barack Obama … in 2008. It was the right choice given the Republican opposition, but I certainly lost any enthusiasm for him. > > The one before that … I don’t think there was one before that. Well, Ok. But are you also in the subset of people who believe that if Hillary were more active in her campaigning she would successfully motivate you to be enthusiastic about her? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/23 "2015-08-04T18:52:38Z")
Well, no. Have no doubt I will vote for her should it be necessary, but I won’t be enthusiastic about it. If she rented me some hookers and bought me some blow, I could get a whole lot more enthusiastic for her, but that seems … unlikely. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/24 "2015-08-04T18:55:27Z")
So? Unenthusiastic votes count for just as much. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/25 "2015-08-04T18:59:27Z")
Hey, I was just answering the question from the previous post. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/26 "2015-08-04T19:01:15Z")
Unenthusiastic votes count just as much, true, when they actually happen. But if it rains, or someone has an appointment, or a party… ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/27 "2015-08-04T19:11:58Z")
I’m hoping Trunp has some dirt, or maybe just a big enough lie, to get one of his fellows out of the race before he himself becomes a casualty. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/28 "2015-08-04T20:59:26Z")
> [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > It’s not like she’s doing nothing. Well, she is raising oodles and oodles of money, so that ain’t nothing! ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/29 "2015-08-04T21:04:43Z")
I’d say she’s running to win: she’s winning against[ALL](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm) potential Republican nominees. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/30 "2015-08-04T21:22:53Z")
Name recognition. In 2014, ALL of the Democratic Senate incumbents were leading until a couple of months before the election. You can’t beat something with nothing, and until the Republicans are known by the vast majority of the voters, you’re essentially asking them if they support “Who the f\*!(k?” or Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/31 "2015-08-04T21:28:41Z")
Well, “who the fuck?” shouldn’t be losing. As I recall, in 2012 Obama trailed the Generic Republican even though he was ahead of every actual candidate. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/32 "2015-08-04T21:42:46Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Well, “who the fuck?” shouldn’t be losing. As I recall, in 2012 Obama trailed the Generic Republican even though he was ahead of every actual candidate. The economy sucked in 2012. It’s much better now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/33 "2015-08-04T21:42:50Z")
They haven’t polled Clinton vs. generic Republican, unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/34 "2015-08-04T22:53:40Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > I’d say she’s running to win: she’s winning against[ALL](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm) potential Republican nominees. I agree that she’s focusing on winning overall and likely more focused on avoiding risk in the primaries at this point. I wouldn’t read too much in to the head to head comparisons. Those numbers show a very narrow difference based on who her competitor is. ISTR some similar results for Sanders head to head vs Republicans although with smaller margins. That might speak to the demographic advantage of having the D after her name than it being about her. Overwhelmingly the differences are smaller than the “unsure” chunk of the vote. I’d bet her campaign has a far better analysis of what that excluded and potentially decisive middle is thinking. It certainly supports the idea of focusing on them for the general instead of maximizing primary margins of victory while she still has a lead among Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/35 "2015-08-04T23:14:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They haven’t polled Clinton vs. generic Republican, unfortunately. Not unfortunately. It’s a meaningless poll. She’ll be running against an actual Repulbican, not a generic one. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/36 "2015-08-05T09:36:16Z")
Polls are all meaningless right now if you want to find out who is going to win. But they are very useful if you want to learn things about the political situation right now. Polls against generic Republicans are useful because it tells you if your candidates are more or less popular than the party’s “brand”. If generic Republican beats Clinton but your actual Republicans don’t, then you either need new Republicans or better marketing of the ones you have. Since right now all Republicans not named Bush or Trump have low name recognition, I’d expect them to underperform generic as well as Clinton. Still, I’d like to know if the voters would prefer a Republican to Clinton, and generic polls can tell you that. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/37 "2015-08-05T12:06:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Since right now all Republicans not named Bush or Trump have low name recognition, I’d expect them to underperform generic as well as Clinton. Still, I’d like to know if the voters would prefer a Republican to Clinton, and generic polls can tell you that. 270toWin has a [rollup table](http://www.270towin.com/news/2015/08/01/primary-vs-general-election-relative-strength-of-republicans_104.html#.VcHzYfmmBNU) of the Mclatchy-Marist head to head comparisons. Against all the Republicans on the main debate stage that aren’t named Trump fall she polls between 47-50. She leads by 5-10% against the same nine. Her numbers are pretty similar with the main source of difference being how many unsure voters there are. That probably gives a good feel for her current advantage against the field. Trump is a whole different matter. She gets more support than against **anyone** in the field. Only Graham, Fiorina, and Gilmore trail by a bigger margin thanks to bigger unsure numbers. Trump is a pretty clear case of under performing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/38 "2015-08-05T12:10:06Z")
That’s not approval, that’s presidential preference. In approval polls, between 35-70% don’t know who most of the candidates are, which means they have no idea if they prefer Clinton or the Republican unless they are already committed Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/39 "2015-08-05T12:40:57Z")
Polls don’t mean crap. Right now about 90% of the people have already decided they will vote for the party of their preference in 2016 as well as 2020. The so-called “independent” voters actually have a party that they will vote for while holding their noses and/or hiding their faces. Hillary is going to get all of the Democratic voters and whichever stooge wins the Republican nomination will get all the Republican votes. We can take the electoral map and fill in all but about five states right now. Unless Republicans sweep all the truly undecided states, Hillary wins. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968/40 "2015-08-05T13:12:47Z")
Nate Silver would disagree with most of that. There are a lot more states that can go either way than you think, and a much wider possible spread of popular vote outcomes than you think. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hillary-running-to-win-or-not-to-lose/726968.md?page=3)