# Is Hurricane Frances going to screw up my vacation? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [August 28, 2004, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944 "2004-08-28T12:43:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2004, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/1 "2004-08-28T12:43:26Z")
We’re in the Keys for some snorkeling and affiliated fun stuff starting next Friday (Sept 3). It sure looks like it could be awful wet. Any of you meteorologically inclined dopers willing to help me calculate the odds? ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2004, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/2 "2004-08-28T16:09:44Z")
frances (the very formal lady hurricane) should be around the dominican republic on the first or second. at this point they really can’t project much further than that. it seems that she is heading for the east coast over the gulf coast at this point. of course hurricanes have minds of their own, as residents in florida found out recently, and can take quick turns and laugh at computer models. you will be arriving in fl on fri and staying how long? if it is just fri-mon you may get a bit lucky. if fri- fri you may have some weather issues. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2004, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/3 "2004-08-28T17:09:08Z")
Friday through Monday in the Keys. Tuesday at Canaveral. Wednesday through Sunday at Disney. Wish us luck. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2004, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/4 "2004-08-28T23:31:21Z")
the line has moved a bit and the keys are in the 300 mile “strike zone.” frances is gaining some strength as well, she could hit low cat 5 soon. the nhc has her near the bahamas on thurs aft. [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/282053W5.gif](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/282053W5.gif) good luck, and keep watching ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2004, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/5 "2004-08-28T23:44:10Z")
You could have some serious trouble getting there on Friday. Hurricanes are actually pretty predictable, what Charley did was unusual. The southern tip of Florida is not only in the “probability” range, it is the exact center of it. The 'cane should hit about Wednesday, so even if you are driving you should have time to make alternate arrangements. With this track, it is more likely for the storm to veer north than south, so you got that goin’ for you. LM, BS Meteorology. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2004, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/6 "2004-08-29T13:55:52Z")
Looks like the update last night changed the long term forecast to a more northerly course. Here’s hoping it sticks! [weather.com](http://weather.com) makes most of the time I’m in Key West isolated/scatted storms and sunny. Whew! ---
**Author:** ![ladybug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/46a35a/32.png) [@ladybug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladybug)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2004, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/7 "2004-08-29T18:07:20Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Looks like the update last night changed the long term forecast to a more northerly course. Here’s hoping it sticks! ACK! It looks like Frances is heading straight for the West Palm area. Right now I’m hoping it’ll make a U-turn and head back out to sea. [National Hurricane Center projections](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif) ---
**Author:** ![vix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a88e4f/32.png) [@vix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vix)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2004, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/8 "2004-08-29T21:07:28Z")
> [@ladybug](#): > > ACK! It looks like Frances is heading straight for the West Palm area. Right now I’m hoping it’ll make a U-turn and head back out to sea. I hope so, too! We’re on the island, so if it hits here… :eek: ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/9 "2004-08-30T00:21:23Z")
good heavens, vix, islands are dangerous places. i thought you left island life when you moved away from nyc. frances looks like she could be very nasty when she comes in. she is projected to be a cat 5 by tuesday, if not earlier. ---
**Author:** ![ladybug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/46a35a/32.png) [@ladybug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladybug)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/10 "2004-08-30T00:50:35Z")
> [@rocking chair](#): > > frances looks like she could be very nasty when she comes in. she is projected to be a cat 5 by tuesday, if not earlier. Now I’m really getting nervous. I was already planning to leave town on Friday (I’m heading up to see my parents for Labor Day weekend), but now I’m worried about the damage I’ll find when I come back. Charley was a category 4 when it hit Punta Gorda, and look at all the damage that storm did. **vix** , I was thinking about you earlier when I found out the storm would be heading this way. You have somewhere inland you can go, right? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/11 "2004-08-30T01:14:42Z")
You would all be welcome to join us at Key West but I’m thinking you might not want to. ---
**Author:** ![vix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a88e4f/32.png) [@vix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vix)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/12 "2004-08-30T13:31:06Z")
I certainly do have somewhere to go, **ladybug**. I’m going up to Newport, RI to get married on Sunday! 🙂 In any case, the latest maps from the NHC show that Frances will probably hit north of us (and way north of the Keys, **Jonathan** ) and not until after Saturday. The storm may also be weakening. All subject to change, but still: phew! ---
**Author:** ![ladybug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/46a35a/32.png) [@ladybug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladybug)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/13 "2004-08-30T23:14:38Z")
Congratulations, **vix**! I hope you have a wonderful wedding. 🙂 Earlier today it looked like Frances would be turning north and heading up toward the Carolinas, but the latest predictions have the storm heading back in this direction with landfall sometime on Saturday. GRRR! This is really starting to get to me! ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2004, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/14 "2004-08-30T23:27:11Z")
fantastic!!! best wishes there vix!!! might i mention that rhode island actually has “island” in its name for a rather good reason? also has an interesting hurricane history. i really like newport, it is on my list of places to move to when i win some lottery money. frances is giving the computers a bit of a headache. i’m enjoying the discussions on nhc. [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/discussion/MIATCDAT1](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/discussion/MIATCDAT1) ---
**Author:** ![ccwaterback](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@ccwaterback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ccwaterback)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2004, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/15 "2004-08-31T01:47:36Z")
Watch her shimmy. [http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html) ---
**Author:** ![vix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a88e4f/32.png) [@vix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vix)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2004, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/16 "2004-08-31T11:22:39Z")
Thank you, ladies! 🙂 I woke up to the news that Frances is curving and making landfall much farther north. Works for me. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2004, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/17 "2004-09-02T00:03:39Z")
mr chance, ya know, there are some lovely parts of ohio to vacation in. nice little lake up there… ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2004, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/18 "2004-09-02T00:14:15Z")
Sadly, snorkling off the Dry Tortugas just puts the Lake Erie zone to shame. Nice try though. We’ll just see if we come back. After all, don’t we _need_ a Key West Doper? I could get a house boat and name it “The Busted Flush”. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2004, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/19 "2004-09-02T00:49:43Z")
the nhc is showing an 11% chance of the storm hitting key west between now and sat. afternoon, some of the storm paths have some of the keys in the clear. how are those odds? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2004, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944/20 "2004-09-02T01:24:08Z")
Any loonie will take those odds! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-hurricane-frances-going-to-screw-up-my-vacation/261944.md?page=2)