# Is Illinois the next state to go red in 2018? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 10, 2017, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639 "2017-06-10T20:47:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/1 "2017-06-10T20:47:55Z")
Illinois has compiled $14.6 billion in unpaid bills. It’s running a deficit of $6 billion and its pension liability has soared to $130 billion. That’s not the worst of it. The state’s nearly two-year failure to pass a budget has sent its bond ratings careening toward junk level, downgraded a staggering eight notches below most other states. With university enrollments plummeting, large-scale social service agencies shuttering and the Chicago Public Schools forced to borrow just to stay open through the end of this school year, Illinois is beginning to devolve into something like a banana republic — and it’s about to have the most expensive election the state has ever seen. > **[How Illinois became America's failed state](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/10/illinois-debt-deficit-budget-election-239384)** > > The Land of Lincoln is drowning in red ink. And it's about to have its most expensive election ever. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/2 "2017-06-10T20:52:07Z")
Puerto Rico could steal their title as the least fiscally responsible state in the Union by voting for statehood. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/3 "2017-06-10T21:11:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Puerto Rico could steal their title as the least fiscally responsible state in the Union by voting for statehood. Yes, but Puerto Rico, thankful is not a state. Just a USA territory. Illinois is a mess. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/4 "2017-06-10T21:31:48Z")
See the guy at the top of that story? That’s failed Republican governor Bruce Rauner who came in swearing that he’d lead the effort to fix the state’s finances and instead entrenched himself in blocking any budget that didn’t contain pet conservative goals unrelated to the budget itself. A while back, Crain’s Chicago Business wrote an editorial stating that they were wrong when they endorsed him for governor as he has completely failed to lead or produce. Yes, yes “But Madigan…”. Madigan is on the ballot in one district (which will almost certainly vote for him). Rauner is on the ballot across the state and much, much more vulnerable. It’s hard to suggest that the state will go red while we’re floundering under failed Republican leadership. ---
**Author:** ![Edible\_Hat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/41988e/32.png) [@Edible\_Hat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Edible_Hat)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/5 "2017-06-10T21:32:06Z")
Why would it _turn_ “red”? In the governor’s mansion, it is already “red” and Bruce Rauner is one of the most unpopular governors in the country and likely to lose the gubernatorial race next year. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/6 "2017-06-10T21:34:30Z")
At this point (correctly or incorrectly being somewhat immaterial to the question of the op) Illinois voters are largely holding their GOP governor as responsible for the prolonged deadlock and lack of any movement to fixing the mess. His popularity is Trumpian: only 36% approval with 58% disapprove. He’s not quite at Sam Brownback depths but pretty close. Illinois is a horrible fiscal mess _and_ not only will it not “go red” in 2018; it will like flip from a GOP governor to a Democratic one. Neither of its two Democratic Senators are up for election in 2018, and the 13 to 7 Democratic tilt in its U.S. House of representatives contingent is not only pretty safe but in no way being held as responsible for the state’s fiscal problems. At the State House level who knows but I suspect that the 66 to 51 Dem lean is not at much risk, nor its 37 to 22 State senate lead. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/7 "2017-06-10T21:41:26Z")
I guarantee you that Illinois will not vote for the Democratic candidate for President in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/8 "2017-06-10T21:44:46Z")
Note that things also sucked fiscally for the state last cycle and Rauner’s team and the state GOP failed to capitalize on them, gaining only four seats in a legislature dominated by Democrats. In 2018, the deeply unpopular Rauner will be on the ballot – likely dragging down his state assembly colleagues. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/9 "2017-06-10T22:26:34Z")
At a wild benefit-of-the-doubt guess, the OP might have meant the accounting sense of in the red. He doesn’t make any political comments and the idea that financial troubles=Republican win seems a little non-obvious. ---
**Author:** ![erysichthon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d07c76/32.png) [@erysichthon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erysichthon)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/10 "2017-06-10T22:31:57Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > See the guy at the top of that story? That’s failed Republican governor Bruce Rauner who came in swearing that he’d lead the effort to fix the state’s finances and instead entrenched himself in blocking any budget that didn’t contain pet conservative goals unrelated to the budget itself. A while back, Crain’s Chicago Business wrote an editorial stating that they were wrong when they endorsed him for governor as he has completely failed to lead or produce. > > Yes, yes “But Madigan…”. Madigan is on the ballot in one district (which will almost certainly vote for him). Rauner is on the ballot across the state and much, much more vulnerable. It’s hard to suggest that the state will go red while we’re floundering under failed Republican leadership. Yes, this, exactly. Rauner promised to use his business acumen to fix the state’s fiscal problems. Instead, he’s driven it off a cliff. He campaigned as a straight-shooting outsider, but in interviews he bobs and weaves and equivocates in a way that would embarrass Richard Nixon. Before he was governor, he complained loudly about the state’s credit downgrades, but now he claims that the imminent downgrade to junk is _totally not his fault_ and besides, bond ratings don’t really matter! Evidently his reelection campaign will consist of him standing in the wreckage of the Illinois state government and saying “It’s all Mike Madigan’s fault!” Really? You’re the fucking governor, and you’re _completely powerless_ because of _one guy from one district?_ And this is what is supposed to turn Illinois red? Oh, I’m sure he’s convinced low-information voters in Illinois’s innumerable dot-on-the-map towns that Madigan is to blame for everything. But those people would have voted for Rauner anyway. Ginning up outrage among people who are already in your camp is pointless. Unless he gets his act together quickly—like in the next three weeks—he’s doomed. Hell, even Rod fucking Blagojevich knew that states are supposed to pay their bills. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/11 "2017-06-10T22:39:10Z")
Not at all. No one likes Rauner these days and his wife isn’t likely to convince the voters in the Chicago suburbs in 2018. There is a huge field in the Democratic race for governor, which means that the Dems smell blood in the water. Clinton won Illinois easily in the Democratic primary as well as in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/12 "2017-06-10T23:11:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I guarantee you that Illinois will not vote for the Democratic candidate for President in 2018. As much as I think that whole red/blue state thing is an oversimplification, you’re point is absolutely correct. It becomes even more tenuous when you try to apply it to non-presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2017, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/13 "2017-06-10T23:25:24Z")
For what it’s worth, Illinois has had Republican governors in the past and it wasn’t any seismic moment when Quinn (who was also ineffectual) lost and a Republican, Rauner, won the spot. It’s just that Rauner has also been terrible at the job, has nothing to show for his time in office and yet will certainly be the GOP candidate. If we had a Democratic governor right now who was in this exact same situation, I’d have no problem admitting that Republicans could likely take the governor’s mansion. As is, I don’t see how they hold it. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2017, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/14 "2017-06-11T08:19:29Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I guarantee you that Illinois will not vote for the Democratic candidate for President in 2018. Wow, it’s like you can peer past the veil of time itself and foretell the future! Bet that’s why they call ya **Chronos** … ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/16 "2017-06-11T20:46:31Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > At a wild benefit-of-the-doubt guess, the OP might have meant the accounting sense of in the red. He doesn’t make any political comments and the idea that financial troubles=Republican win seems a little non-obvious. Winner winner, chicken dinner. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2017, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/17 "2017-06-11T21:54:52Z")
Fair enough. But then, I would have assumed that Illinois’ finances were already “in the red” and this is the elections forum, after all. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2017, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/18 "2017-06-11T22:24:45Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Fair enough. But then, I would have assumed that Illinois’ finances were already “in the red” and this is the elections forum, after all. Seriously. Aint > [@the freakin' op](#): > > Illinois has compiled $14.6 billion in unpaid bills. It’s running a deficit of $6 billion and its pension liability has soared to $130 billion. _already_ fiscally “in the red”? Boy I wonder if next year Illinois will become what it currently is? ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/19 "2017-06-11T23:11:48Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Winner winner, chicken dinner. Yeah, sure. I think they should follow Kansas’ (Kansas’s?) example and immediately cut taxes. That will definitely get them out of the red. It worked for Kansas, right? _check Kansas thread_ Wait, scratch that. ---
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2017, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/20 "2017-06-12T00:28:44Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > As much as I think that whole red/blue state thing is an oversimplification, you’re point is absolutely correct. It becomes even more tenuous when you try to apply it to non-presidential elections. I think there won’t be a presidential election until 2020. So we can confidently predict that no states will be voting Democrat or Republican in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2017, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639/21 "2017-06-12T22:15:04Z")
Given the financial mess Illinois is in, yes, it can definitely go red if it isn’t there already. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-illinois-the-next-state-to-go-red-in-2018/788639.md?page=2)