# Is Iran working on nuclear weapons or not? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 19, 2006, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725 "2006-12-19T02:15:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/1 "2006-12-19T02:15:46Z")
[The CIA can find no proof](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061120/pl_nm/iran_usa_report_dc) . . . but, then, it’s not like the CIA has never made a mistake before. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/2 "2006-12-19T08:13:16Z")
Yes…they are. IMHO, based solely on what I’ve read and the actions taken by their government, I’d say that they are developing nukes and will probably have one before the next decade is out. That the CIA has no proof means nothing…again IMHO…afaik we have little or no human intel sources IN Iran (or in the whole ME for that matter, at least from what I’ve read in the past), and its not something you could or would see via satelite (which the CIA relies on a lot in those areas). Besides, just because the CIA SAYS it has no evidence, doesn’t mean there IS no evidence. It might not be solid enough for the bureaucrats and pencil pushers…who have got to be feeling the burn after the whole Iraq fiasco. They might not want to go out on a limb again unless they have absolute proof. Or they might want the Iranians to THINK we have no such solid proof. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/3 "2006-12-19T08:21:04Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Besides, just because the CIA SAYS it has no evidence, doesn’t mean there IS no evidence. [/quote] I think Iran is probably developing nuclear weapons, but I still feel compelled to say that this sounds a lot like “absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.” > [@](#): > > They might not want to go out on a limb again unless they have absolute proof. Heh. Of course, you might have thought that the first time around- but then you would have thought wrong. ---
**Author:** ![if6was9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47c2d/32.png) [@if6was9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/if6was9)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/4 "2006-12-19T08:31:02Z")
I have no evidence for this… but of course they are. By all accounts they are within range of having them, and they are the most powerful weapons ever. If they get them, they raise to a new, worldwide status. Look at Russia in '49. They were backward peasants, til the papers screamed that they had the bomb. Same with China, Israel, India, Pakistan, etc. They were all second class powers… til they got the bomb. No matter how each nation tries to hide it, the “group-think” mentality drives them toward Machiavellian goals. They are trying as hard as they possibly can, without raising suspicion above an unacceptable level. Eventually their efforts will come to fruition. ---
**Author:** ![if6was9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47c2d/32.png) [@if6was9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/if6was9)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/5 "2006-12-19T08:39:42Z")
And to further my “evidence”… look at the U.S. drive toward getting the bomb. Why did we do it? Was it to end the war? The first efforts were before the war even started. We couldn’t see the beginning of the war, much less the end, so we didn’t see the bomb ending the war. We saw (supposedly) that Germany was well on the way to developing nukes, so _we_ had to develop nukes. It wasn’t to actually use them, it was a biggest dick contest (excuse the phrase…) And now Iran wants to show how big theirs is too. ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/6 "2006-12-19T09:07:57Z")
From the same Seymour Hersh that promised that we’d be _invading_ Iran right now? I’m more inclined to believe that Mr. Hersh is now operating off of an intelligence-decoder-ring from the bottom of a box of corn flakes than not. I have this on good authority from secret unnamed high-level sources in the Bush administration. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/7 "2006-12-19T11:41:50Z")
The bottom line is that there is no proof. And we have before our eyes the cluster-fuck that resulted the last time we trusted what we ‘knew’ of WMD’s and trusted the word of a bunch of lying war mongers. The Hersh article I read on Iran spoke of authoristing cover military action in Iran and given the nature of covert action we have no idea if it’s going on or not. Certainly no one can deny Bush/Cheney have a hard-on for military action against Iran and they are proven liars regarding fomenting wars on specious grounds. If changed political circumstances makes an overt attack less likely then that’s all for the better. Iran is perfectly entitled to pursue a nuclear power program and enrich uranium to the 3.5% (well below weapons grade) that it has. The IAEA has verification issues with Iran but there is no evidence of a nuclear weapons program. [IAEA Statement](http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2006/ebsp2006n003.html#iran) > [@](#): > > The report on the implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran is before you. As you are aware, the Agency over the last three years has been conducting intensive investigations of Iran´s nuclear programme with a view to providing assurances about the peaceful nature of that programme. > > During these investigations, the Agency has not seen indications of diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Regrettably, however, after three years of intensive verification, there remain uncertainties with regard to both the scope and the nature of Iran´s nuclear programme. As I mentioned in my report, this is a matter of concern that continues to give rise to questions about the past and current direction of Iran´s nuclear programme. > > For confidence to be built in the peaceful nature of Iran´s programme, Iran should do its utmost to provide maximum transparency and build confidence. Only through clarification of all questions relevant to Iran´s past programme and through confidence building measures can confidence about Iran´s current nuclear activities be restored. This is clearly in the interest both of Iran and of the international community. [Defence Tech article](http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/945/iran-focus-part-1-how-close-is-iran-to-the-bomb) > [@](#): > > When some moron like Charles Krauthammer claims Iran is now just “months” away from a bomb, you can pretty much ignore him: He has no idea what he is talking about. > > Overall, Iran is probably a little less than a decade away from developing a nuclear weapon. The key question here is how long it will take Iran to enrich a few tens of kilograms of uranium to more than 90 percent U-235. > > Dafna Linzer reported that the US Intelligence Community does not believe that Iran could do so before “early to mid next decade”—a revision of previous assessments that Iran would “have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade.” > > Why so long? The answer is that Iran still has to build, install and operate its centrifuges to enrich uranium. > > David Albright and Corey Hinderstein at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released an estimate that breaks down the steps for Iran to make fissile material for a bomb, along with a nifty satellite image (at right) of Iran’s Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz. > > Most references to Iran being “months” away from a bomb are really statements about how close Iran will be once it completes the FEP—something, as you will soon see, that will take a few years. All our defaults should now be set to ‘Disbelief’ regarding anything the White House and their co-conspirators say regarding WMD’s anywhere. When the IAEA and independent analysts untainted by the Iraq debacle say I have need to worry, then I will worry. If anyone has real evidence they are welcome to bring it forward. Until then I’m happy to let diplomacy rumble on. I’m not going to be lied/scared into another disastarous war and neither should anyone else with a lick of sense. Add in to this that the alleged source of data supporting allegations are Iranian opposition groups and supposed ‘secret’ israeli assets close to the Iranian govt then my Deja Vu alert siren goes off. Changing the last letter of the alleged demon country from a Q to an N doesn’t fool me. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2006, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/8 "2006-12-19T14:31:49Z")
I think that they are probably working on getting a bomb. I also think that they are very scared of the USA, which is a good incentive to keep the centrifuges spinning. What the CIA says and what the CIA knows are not necessarily they same thing, which is eminently sensible as there is a strong case for defusing the USA-Iran ‘relationship’. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2006, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/9 "2006-12-20T00:22:03Z")
Don’t suppose the results of the recent Iranian [election](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/A2B68F48-0826-40EC-A196-5DF742E49616.html) will change anything? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2006, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/10 "2006-12-20T00:24:22Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] What the CIA says and what the CIA knows are not necessarily they same thing . . . [/QUOTE] 😕 If you can’t trust the CIA, who can you trust?! ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2006, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/11 "2006-12-20T00:26:22Z")
They’ve produced plutonium. With the excuse that they produced this weapons grade material out of simple curiousity over nuclear physics. Of course they’re working on a neuclear weapon. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2006, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/12 "2006-12-20T01:36:46Z")
[Here’s](http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/061127fa_fact) Hersh’s article, BTW. In [other news:](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/19/AR2006121900534.html) > [@](#): > > The Pentagon is considering a buildup of Navy forces in the Persian Gulf as a show of force against Iran, a senior defense official said Tuesday. > > Speaking on condition of anonymity because the idea has not been approved, the official said one proposal is to send a second aircraft carrier to the region amid increasing tensions with Iran, blamed for encouraging sectarian violence in neighboring Iraq as well as allegedly pursuing a nuclear weapons program. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2006, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/13 "2006-12-20T20:25:59Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] What the CIA says and what the CIA knows are not necessarily they same thing [/quote] Don’t you mean “What the Bush Administration says and what the CIA knows are not necessarily the same thing”? I mean, the CIA knew that Iraq didn’t have WMDs, but it was the bozos in the White House who claimed otherwise… ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2006, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iran-working-on-nuclear-weapons-or-not/384725/14 "2006-12-30T15:52:48Z")
Update: 12/23/03, the UN Security Council passed [Resolution 1737](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1737) imposing sanctions on Iran. Here’s what the [Iranian ambassador to the UN](http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-oe-zarif30dec30,1,1787018.story?coll=la-news-a_section) has to say about it, FWIW.