# Is Iraq really safer than Jamaica and Baltimore? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 17, 2006, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168 "2006-05-17T21:24:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jebus\_H.Christ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Jebus\_H.Christ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jebus_H.Christ)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2006, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/1 "2006-05-17T21:24:53Z")
Are Rep. King’s number accurate? > [@](#): > > It’s that time of year when New Yorkers start making their summer vacation plans. Renting a place in the Hamptons? Nah, been there, done that. How about a Parisian jaunt? Noooo. Too many riots. Well, how about visiting a country that’s ancient, historic, beautiful and exotic - Iraq? Sure, there’s a little war going on there, but when you look at the violent death statistics in the world, it’s safer than a number of other popular travel destinations. Believe it or not. > > I happened to catch Rep. Steve King, a Republican of Iowa, on C-span last week and he rattled off some startling figures that demonstrate how off-base journalists are when it comes to reporting on the war in Iraq. According to Mr. King, the violent death rate in Iraq is 25.71 per 100,000. That may sound high, but not when you compare it to places like Colombia (61.7), South Africa (49.6), Jamaica (32.4), and Venezuela (31.6). How about the violent death rates in American cities? New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina was 53.1. FBI statistics for 2004-05 have Washington at 45.9, Baltimore at 37.7, and Atlanta at 34.9. > **[Spinning The Reality Of Iraq War](https://www.nysun.com/new-york/spinning-the-reality-of-iraq-war/32787/)** > > It's that time of year when New Yorkers start making their summer vacation plans. Renting a place in the Hamptons? Nah, been there, done that. How about a Parisian jaunt? Noooo. Too many riots. Well, how about visiting a country that's ancient, ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2006, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/2 "2006-05-17T22:36:04Z")
It sounds like Rep King has read one of those How to Lie with Statistics books. The population of Iraq is around [26,000,000](http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html) (26000000/100000) x 25.71 = 6500 give or take According to [IDC](http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr13.php) there were 6331 reported violent deaths in the first year of occupation. That number excludes the reported 7,000 civilain deaths during the invasion itself Since then it’s doubled to a reported 12,617 in the year up to March 2006. And then to comapre the death rate for the whole of Iraq to individual US cities. Hmm, anyone have the figures for just Bagdad? I’m guessing the number of violent deaths in the Iraqi capital is a liitle higher than the US one. I don’t have the figures to back it up yet. I wonder why he chose the numbers from before the insurgency got going? ---
**Author:** ![RCGDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c4cdca/32.png) [@RCGDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RCGDC)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2006, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/3 "2006-05-17T22:59:13Z")
It seems to me historically speaking repressive governments have always had a safer track record. I recall Moscow and Lenningrad (St Petersburg now) were very safe under Communism. This has changed. Singapore (describes as “authorative” not “repessive”) is extremely safe. Since an Army is literally occupying Baghdad, I would think you could make a case for it. In fact in Afghanistan now the people complain, that while they have more freedom the crime is so high now, that perhaps the Taliban was better. The thing about statistics, is you have to strictly define them and see if they are in fact analogous. Most oddly stated stats are simply comparing two things that should not be compared, but look similar at first. AKA specious reasoning ---
**Author:** ![R.P.McMurphy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7993a0/32.png) [@R.P.McMurphy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R.P.McMurphy)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2006, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/4 "2006-05-18T01:54:22Z")
The question that always goes unanswered . . . Ask Rep. King if he would be willing to live in Baghdad because, according to his statistics, it would extend his life? He is using unrelated stats to promote an agenda. 'Nuff said. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2006, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/5 "2006-05-18T13:32:03Z")
And a bonus question: where do you think the most unreported deaths are? ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2006, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/6 "2006-05-18T16:39:31Z")
How many victims of attempted murder were there in Baltimore? How many of those lost a leg or an arm? ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2006, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/7 "2006-05-18T17:09:46Z")
Are those the tourist rates? ---
**Author:** ![Opus1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/858c86/32.png) [@Opus1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Opus1)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2006, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/8 "2006-05-18T18:09:12Z")
Virtually every day there’s another story about 20-30 people dying in an attack in Iraq. When was the last time such an event happened in Baltimore? And of course all the “standard” murders that happen in Iraq–family squabbles, fights between neighbors, street robberies, etc.–never make the news. [Iraqbodycount.org](http://Iraqbodycount.org) says about 35000-39000 civilians killed since the U.S. military intervention. Again, this doesn’t take into account non-civilian casualties, injuries, or the every day deaths that have nothing to do with the U.S. presence. Iraq’s population is about that of Texas. I highly doubt there are anywhere near 35,000 violent deaths in Texas every year. In short, Rep. King is full of sh\*\* and should be ashamed of himself. ---
**Author:** ![Renee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/renee/32/287_2.png) [@Renee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renee)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2006, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/9 "2006-05-19T15:50:29Z")
I think this is a really interesting question and am surprised at the lack of response to it. Doesn’t anyone have stats on this? Anyone? I have been drinking margaritas, or I would look myself, but well…margaritas. I would also like to welcome to the board \*\*Jebus H. Christ \*\* (who’s name I like, btw) and **RCGDC** , who sounds rational and bright. I hope you both stick around. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2006, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/10 "2006-05-19T16:51:22Z")
FWIW, I have no trouble believing that Iraq is safer than Colombia. Colombia is pretty much run by drug lords that make Tony Soprano look about as tough as Woody Allen. But Baltimore? No freakin’ way. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2006, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-iraq-really-safer-than-jamaica-and-baltimore/357168/11 "2006-05-19T17:16:44Z")
The comparison is clearly a load of hooey. If you look on page 12 of [this](http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf) pdf file, and you’ll get some good data on the issue. The bottom line is that the **reported** crime related murder rate in Baghdad is roughly similar to that of the murder rate in DC. However, it is widely believed that murders in Baghdad are significantly under-reported. Furthermore, that statistic does not include deaths from terrorist violence, only “routine” crime. If one simply examines that the US, with a population of about 280 million, has about 17,000 murders each year, and Iraq, with a population of about 25 million, has had somewhere between 44,000 and 89,000 murders and terrorist-related deaths in the last three years, you’ve got to be nuts to argue that Iraq, on the whole, is safer than the US. What’s more, if you look at page 15 of same report, you see an estimated fatality rate for various Americans in Iraq. DOD civilians are about 50% more likely to be killed in Iraq than is an American agricultural worker, what with all their combines and threshers and whatnot. One should also use some common sense in interpreting this data. Drug dealers in Baltimore usually kill each other, not go out and bomb churches or try to blow up passing police cars. One cannot say the same thing of Al Qaeda in Iraq’s actions in Baghdad. I can’t help but wonder how many [rocket attacks](http://216.109.125.130/search/cache?p=peter+king+baghdad&ei=UTF-8&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&fr=moz2&u=www.news12.com/LI/topstories/article%3Fid%3D93270&w=peter+king+baghdad&d=FaBEGEaqMwJ7&icp=1&.intl=us) Mr. King has narrowly missed during his tenure of service in our Nation’s capital, what with our high murder rate here. However, one point is worth noting: there are places in Iraq that are pretty stable. Terrorist violence is very uncommon in places like Dahuk and Sulaymaniayh according to some statistics I have at my disposal. (Just like murders of Americans just isn’t very common in many parts of our country, I might add.)