# Is it just me or is the probability of Trump quitting the race getting higher? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 23, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716 "2016-08-23T03:55:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/41 "2016-08-24T16:31:50Z")
> [@JackieLikesVariety](#): > > OMG this made so much sense - can somebody point out where it’s wrong? please? Ratings aren’t endorsements. Plenty of people will watch shit TV the same way we can’t pull our eyes away from a trainwreck, but that’s a far cry from actually liking or approving of the characters. ---
**Author:** ![JackieLikesVariety](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackielikesvariety/32/296_2.png) [@JackieLikesVariety](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JackieLikesVariety)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/42 "2016-08-24T16:43:20Z")
> [@](#): > > Sure. It fails to take into account the fact that I have decreed that there shall never again be a Republican president. why not? I don’t feel better when people say things like this > [@](#): > > every minority and women hating him because the woman I saw wearing a tRump T shirt yesterday was Hispanic. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/43 "2016-08-24T16:45:42Z")
Well, don’t worry about it, do something about it. Register people to vote. Do GOTV on election day(s). Be more vocal on FB and Twitter and whatever social media platform you like (assumes you aren’t, which may or may not be so). ---
**Author:** ![irae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f0a364/32.png) [@irae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/irae)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/44 "2016-08-24T17:15:38Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Wishful thinking doesn’t mean that ol’ Hillary is not going to have to face Trump during the debates. Ever seen a grizzly casually swipe a fat, orange salmon out of a river and effortlessly disembowel it on the bank? What HRC is going to do to Trump if he’s foolish enough to show up to debate is going to be “f\*\*king disgusting”. ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/45 "2016-08-24T18:24:21Z")
> [@irae](#): > > Ever seen a grizzly casually swipe a fat, orange salmon out of a river and effortlessly disembowel it on the bank? What HRC is going to do to Trump if he’s foolish enough to show up to debate is going to be “f\*\*king disgusting”. Why do you think this? Sure she is going to be the more rational one making statements and describing policies that have basis in reality. But that is boring people want interesting TV. Trump will be entertaining to some people and will therefore win the debate among his followers no minds will be changed. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/46 "2016-08-24T18:38:10Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Why would he quit? He’s getting attention, isn’t he? > > Regards, > Shodan Exactly. The narcissist is getting what he craves. He won’t quit because he can’t quit. As long as he can stand in front of a crowd of morons cheering him on he’ll continue feeding his very hungry ego. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/47 "2016-08-24T18:41:52Z")
> [@gazpacho](#): > > Why do you think this? Sure she is going to be the more rational one making statements and describing policies that have basis in reality. But that is boring people want interesting TV. Trump will be entertaining to some people and will therefore win the debate among his followers no minds will be changed. I’m afraid you are correct. Debates do very little to shift people’s preconceived notions. If Trump calls Hilary a shrill lying bitch, and answers questions with insults about the “biased media”, then Trump supporters will LOVE this, and declare him the winner. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/48 "2016-08-24T18:54:26Z")
> [@JackieLikesVariety](#): > > because the woman I saw wearing a tRump T shirt yesterday was Hispanic. ☹ I saw an interview with a Trump supporter, who said that no woman is qualified to be President, because even hot flashes would cause her to go to war with someone, and admitted to voting against her own interests. People are stupid, and there’s a lot of them. Anyone running with (R) behind their name is guaranteed 30% nationally from straight ticket voters. The rest of Trump’s supporters are those that believe “Hillary is the devil!” ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/49 "2016-08-24T19:38:36Z")
> [@JackieLikesVariety](#): > > OMG this made so much sense - can somebody point out where it’s wrong? please? That analysis is cultural, not political. Just because we like some lowest common denominator entertainment doesn’t mean that’s what we want from our government. The vast majority of politicians in office and running now are not reality show celebrities. At heart, the argument of this piece is simply that voters are lying to the pollsters, and will reveal their true intent on election day. It’s an argument that we heard about Obama in 2008 (people are only saying that they’ll vote for a black guy, but on election day, they’ll pull the lever for the white candidate). As in 2008, we have no reason to believe that a large number of people being polled are not telling the truth. In fact, I think that people who support Trump and the celebrity culture are the ones who would be most excited about sharing their support for him. If you see people wearing Trump T-shirts, they’re not afraid to admit they’re voting for Trump. So unless I have some other reason to believe that the polls are getting it wrong, I’ll continue to believe that while Americans enjoy watching the Kardashians, Snookis and Trumps on T.V., most of them don’t want them running the country. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/50 "2016-08-24T20:45:54Z")
> [@JackieLikesVariety](#): > > …because the woman I saw wearing a tRump T shirt yesterday was Hispanic. ☹ And that anecdote somehow represents the majority of women or Hispanics? ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/51 "2016-08-24T22:16:30Z")
Clinton knows policy but is a wooden debater and hasn’t seemed fully comfortable defending herself on points like email, foundation etc in the infrequent cases she’s opened herself to media Q&A. And Sanders made a point of not going after her about it. OTOH Trump didn’t prove a particularly quick on his feet zinger master in the GOP debates either. He sometimes seems genuinely comfortable in public, which Clinton almost never does IMO, but mainly when riffing with a friendly crowd. IOW I don’t see a big advantage for either of them in the debates. But Trump has stuff he wants to throw at her. I don’t think his whining about NFL schedule conflict was him trying to dodge the debates. I think _he_ thinks he’ll ‘gut’ her. She by her nature is the one more likely to have trepidation. But I don’t see either as scoring a big victory to persuadable people. Each of their fans will think they won a smashing victory of course. Besides that, the RCP avg now is Clinton +4, around the same margin Obama won by last time (though avg of final polls said it was a couple of points closer and apparently Romney’s internal pollsters really thought he had a slight edge). Unless Trump has much less self confidence than he appears to (maybe he does, but how we know that?) I don’t see why he’d be thinking of dropping out. Maybe if his prior fall in the polls had just gotten worse and worse, but lately things seem to be tightening back up a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/52 "2016-08-24T23:11:56Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > In that way, it’s exactly the same argument as “Look at the size of his rallies!”. People advancing this either can’t or won’t acknowledge the difference between enthusiasm and popularity. Both McCain in '08 and Romney in '12 were very encouraged by the increased size and enthusiasm of their crowds in the final days of their races, but that has nothing to do with election outcomes. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/53 "2016-08-25T01:07:56Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Considering what Trump has already said and done in the past couple of months, I really don’t know what you think Clinton can possibly do to “finish him off”, especially in August. The polls are tightening. Trump is going to narrow the gap and after the debates they will be virtually tied. Clinton has had opportunities to blow Trump’s campaign out of the water, but her repeated bungling of the email controversy allowed Trump to survive. Everyone here is already predicting his collapse, but I’m telling you: this will go down to the wire. Hillary is a flawed candidate and Trump has a solid base of support. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/54 "2016-08-25T01:09:33Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Clinton knows policy but is a wooden debater and hasn’t seemed fully comfortable defending herself on points like email, foundation etc in the infrequent cases she’s opened herself to media Q&A. And Sanders made a point of not going after her about it. OTOH Trump didn’t prove a particularly quick on his feet zinger master in the GOP debates either. He sometimes seems genuinely comfortable in public, which Clinton almost never does IMO, but mainly when riffing with a friendly crowd. > > IOW I don’t see a big advantage for either of them in the debates. But Trump has stuff he wants to throw at her. I don’t think his whining about NFL schedule conflict was him trying to dodge the debates. I think _he_ thinks he’ll ‘gut’ her. She by her nature is the one more likely to have trepidation. But I don’t see either as scoring a big victory to persuadable people. Each of their fans will think they won a smashing victory of course. > > Besides that, the RCP avg now is Clinton +4, around the same margin Obama won by last time (though avg of final polls said it was a couple of points closer and apparently Romney’s internal pollsters really thought he had a slight edge). Unless Trump has much less self confidence than he appears to (maybe he does, but how we know that?) I don’t see why he’d be thinking of dropping out. Maybe if his prior fall in the polls had just gotten worse and worse, but lately things seem to be tightening back up a bit. I think Trump wants to have at least one debate and he wants it to be the super bowl of debates. I think he might bail on the next one if he does well in the first. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/55 "2016-08-25T01:14:55Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Clinton has had opportunities to blow Trump’s campaign out of the water, but her repeated bungling of the email controversy allowed Trump to survive. Everyone here is already predicting his collapse, but I’m telling you: this will go down to the wire. Hillary is a flawed candidate and Trump has a solid base of support. I’m sorry, but I don’t see how this answers my question. If Trump has a “solid base of support,” how can you also claim that Clinton could have had this election won three months out? How did the “email scandal” specifically prevent her from doing so? The only way I could see it is her somehow forcing Trump to bow out, and I don’t see how, nor do I see how the “scandal” has kept her from doing so, given that if Trump were forced out, the pressure would have to come from Republicans who hate her anyway. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/56 "2016-08-25T04:23:02Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The polls are tightening. Trump is going to narrow the gap and after the debates they will be virtually tied. > > Clinton has had opportunities to blow Trump’s campaign out of the water, but her repeated bungling of the email controversy allowed Trump to survive. Everyone here is already predicting his collapse, but I’m telling you: this will go down to the wire. Hillary is a flawed candidate and Trump has a solid base of support. Just out of curiosity … how many of your predictions have _not_ been way way wrong this cycle? Let’s see, you called Clinton v Bush, then Clinton v Cruz with maybe Trump third party (with a massive Trump collapse), Chris Christie as Trump’s VP, that Sanders would end the season on a tear and would lead a revolt demanding he be given the nomination, and on and on … okay, you got Sanders winning WI right, but seriously dude, your record makes **adaher** look like Nate Silver! 🙂 The polls have, other than brief turbulence around the GOP convention, been remarkable stable. By August 3rd the national polls RCP rolling average was Clinton +5.7, and since it had peaked at Clinton +7.9, hit the lowest of Clinton +5.3, and is now Clinton +5.4. Pretty much the range it was in for most of June and July. 538’s “PollsOnly” has Trump in a narrow range within a few of a 13% chance pretty consistently since August 8th (and currently predicts a 7.1% Clinton popular vote margin. Moreover swing state polls have trended farther and farther out of his reach. Trump has a solid base of support … who may or may not come out to the polls this time (they traditionally do _not_ to very large amounts). Clinton has a solid base of support, of demographics that are traditionally highly likely voters. Hers is larger and more reliable. Debates have rarely made any significant impact on an election outcome. Mostly supporters perceive their candidate as “winning” the things. I predict no “collapse” - I continue to predict, as I did before the conventions, that there would be some volatility in the period immediately during and after the conventions and that within two weeks the poll aggregates would settle back into Clinton +5 to 7ish. They have and likely they will stay not too far off that range and when they stray out will bounce back in quickly. The actual margin will depend on who actually votes and pollster accuracy will depend on how well their likely voter screens perform predicting ho votes this very odd time. My guess is that Clinton will outperform the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/57 "2016-08-25T05:55:11Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The polls are tightening. Trump is going to narrow the gap and after the debates they will be virtually tied. > > Clinton has had opportunities to blow Trump’s campaign out of the water, but her repeated bungling of the email controversy allowed Trump to survive. Everyone here is already predicting his collapse, but I’m telling you: this will go down to the wire. Hillary is a flawed candidate and Trump has a solid base of support. [The numbers say you’re wrong](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/21/sharpening-the-forecast/): > [@Sam Wang](#): > > However, something changed starting in 1996. As I have written before, national politics in the United States became dramatically more polarized starting around 1994, when Newt Gingrich led Republicans to take over the House and Senate. Since then, as the graph shows, Presidential campaign dynamics have gotten much more stable. National polling margins have varied by only 3% on average. > > [snip] > > It is now apparent that 2016 is more like 1996-2012 than it is like 1952-1992. Data points for 2016 are included in the graph above. Even though the breakdown of the Republican Party and the advent of Donald Trump have made 2016 a crazy political year, public opinion is more stable than ever. [The next post has an even more interesting statement](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/24/sharpening-the-presidential-forecast-summary-of-comments/): > [@Sam Wang](#): > > The strong state-by-state correlation between Trump 2016 and Romney 2012 suggests that not all that much has changed, except that Trump is quite weak within his own party. > > I see Trump as a culmination of a 20-year trend in the priorities and culture of the Republican Party. His tactics are familiar to the party base. For example, the questioning of legitimacy: of Obama’s birthplace, and of other Republicans, and even the November election itself…the list goes on. And yet he always had at least 40% of Republican primary voters on his side. I offer the following synthesis of data (2016 has been really stable) and events (crazy Trump): the U.S. is suffering from a near-fatal case of polarization, and Trump is a consequence. I’ll admit I like that conclusion because it matches what I was saying last year about this time, but Wang has actual _data_ and _reasoning_ behind his statements, so I’ll link to his posts and forego patting myself on the back overmuch. 😉 My point is, pretending there’s a horse race is either ignorant or dishonest, as **DSeid** has alluded to already, and I further agree with **DSeid** that fundamentals such as GOTV efforts and the fact that Clinton has an actual, competent campaign as opposed to Trump’s farrago of scammers and idiocy will lead to Clinton outperforming the polls on election day. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/58 "2016-08-25T11:02:01Z")
Trust me, I’ve got very smart people - very smart people - working for me and they tell me crooked Hillary is going to collapse. Trust me, folks, Donald Trump is not going to quit the race; Crooked Hillary is going to quit the race for health reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/59 "2016-08-25T19:19:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trust me, I’ve got very smart people - very smart people - working for me and they tell me crooked Hillary is going to collapse. > > Trust me, folks, Donald Trump is not going to quit the race; Crooked Hillary is going to quit the race for health reasons. Well, you might want to deny press credentials to the _Washington Post_ if you haven’t already, [because they say Trump’s lack of a campaign organization is looking to cost him big-time](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/25/how-many-votes-will-trump-give-up-by-not-running-a-professional-campaign-a-lot/): > [@](#): > > Trump is being vastly outspent in advertising and is limited essentially to whatever field organization the Republican National Committee can provide — which will be exceeded by Hillary Clinton’s, much as Romney’s was exceeded by Obama’s. How much will this cost him on Election Day? > > Probably the best estimate comes from a recently published piece by political scientists Ryan Enos and Anthony Fowler. They show that the effect of the 2012 presidential campaign on voter turnout was quite large, about 7-8 points overall. > > They arrive at this estimate by analyzing a sort of experiment: media markets that span state boundaries, such that part of the market falls in a battleground state and part doesn’t. Voters in one of those markets would be potentially exposed to the same amount of televised political advertising but different amounts of other campaign activity. In particular, you would expect that the battleground state voters would be far more likely to be contacted by campaign fieldworkers, who generally aren’t going to contact voters outside of battleground states. > > Enos and Fowler found that voter turnout within these markets was much higher in the battleground state portion than the non-battleground state portion. About 7-8 points higher, in fact. Most of this, they argue, can be attributed to canvassing by the campaigns via door knocking and phone calls, which other political science research has shown to be particularly effective. The increases in turnout were even larger — closer to 10 points — among the strongest partisans, who should be particularly susceptible to mobilization attempts. I think their methodology is rather clever, myself, and I don’t doubt that it will have an impact. However, I think it will come down to Clinton’s win being bigger than predicted, not Clinton turning a potential loss into a win. Trump’s failure is over-determined at this point; so much of his campaign, and so much of the GOP itself, is going wrong that this failure will have a whole list of causes going back decades. I am, however, excited about potential down-ticket effects. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716/60 "2016-08-25T21:51:18Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think Trump wants to have at least one debate and he wants it to be the super bowl of debates. I think he might bail on the next one if he does well in the first. That I could see. He basically shut down the GOP debates by refusing to participate further, because he felt himself already at an advantage. Or maybe the (somewhat wishful at this point, IMHO) thinking common here that Trump will see things as hopeless might kick in if he does really terribly in the first couple of debates (doing terribly in the first it would seem would bring on a go for broke obnoxious approach in the second but maybe that would fail also). But I really don’t think he’s afraid to meet Clinton in a debate, as of now, whether or not he should be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-just-me-or-is-the-probability-of-trump-quitting-the-race-getting-higher/763716.md?page=4)