# Is it likely that the Russian meteorite was shot down? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 19, 2013, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792 "2013-02-19T13:45:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/41 "2013-02-20T13:56:04Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > One doesn’t need to _presume_; there are documented instances of false alarms nearly resulting in war. What makes you think someone carping on a website is under anything like the same launch-or-die time pressure under which nuclear deterrent “professionals” operate? > > The time stamps on your posts indicate it’s taken the two of you from 11:45 pm last night to 7:49 am this morning to have this exchange. That’s 8 hours and four minutes of talking about the crisis. “Professionals” don’t have 8 hours to evaluate a missile threat. Well I for one endeavour under the twin tyrants of real life and timezones. Professional have minutes to evaluate potential threats yes. But unlike those “carping” on a website they have years of experience and ability to tell false from positive very quickly. They don’t operate in a vacuum, they are aware of the world situation and of the enemies dispositions. There are also systems to confirm.An alarm in time of peace is going to be treated with a lot of scepticism, especially when there has been no prior increase in tension or enemy readiness. Also those who evaluate threats and those who order counterstrike are different, it’s not like you have officers looking at scopes with their fingers hovering over the big red button. In real life, all false alarms have been correctly identified as such this includes far more dangerous situations that this one, like the the time aomeone inserted a training simulation tape into NORADs acyive computers leading to the threat board displaying the training exercise as the real thing. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/42 "2013-02-20T14:08:35Z")
I don’t think a meteor trail would trigger a conflict, but reports of a trail of smoke through the sky followed by a large explosion might lead some to the wrong conclusion. Whether that’s enough to trigger a “retaliatory” strike I’m not sure, but I can imagine a worst case scenario of misinterpretation and false reports leading some sort of panic in a military command centre somewhere. But I would guess it would take a lot of unfortunate mistakes to coincide after such an astroid strike to trigger a missile launch. Yet not an unprecedented number of them. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/43 "2013-02-20T14:20:13Z")
^ yes – Looking at the videos, _I_ thought it looked like some kind of reentry vehicle. Even absent an immediate retaliatory strike, I could see any populace being whipped up into a frenzy by demagogues and conspiracy, possibly leading to war. That might be true anywhere where there were tensions with a popularly reviled enemy. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/44 "2013-02-20T14:31:04Z")
If you are looking for an excuse for war then a metorite strike is the least of your problems. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/45 "2013-02-20T15:13:35Z")
> [@AaronX](#): > > Could you hit it with a kinetic energy penetrator and cause it to break up? The smaller the pieces, the faster they’d burn up. Perhaps a Mach 50 Style Death Ray. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/46 "2013-02-20T15:14:07Z")
> [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](#): > > Maybe when it first entered the atmosphere. I thought that they said it was about ten tons, which would be more on the order of six feet across (assuming mostly round, which may or may not have been the case). I made note of the numbers from the news reports: 17m across (size of a five-storey building) 10,000 tons/tonnes (in hand waving, either unit works) explosion force 200 times Hiroshima (and that I have heard reported from 12 to 20 kilotons) Typical rock has a density around 3, iron around 6. A cubic meter of water would weigh 1000kg (1 tonne), of rock - 3 tonnes, iron 5 tonnes. SO yes, a 10-ton meteor would be about 6 ft diameter. Considering it produced shock waves that knocked out windows for tens of miles around from 12 miles up, and even collapsed a roof in one case - I’m inclined to believe the bigger number. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/47 "2013-02-20T15:20:18Z")
> [@AaronX](#): > > Could you hit it with a kinetic energy penetrator and cause it to break up? The smaller the pieces, the faster they’d burn up. Yeah, in theory. But i don’t think the Russians presently have a large caliber rail gun. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/48 "2013-02-20T15:40:29Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > explosion force 200 times Hiroshima (and that I have heard reported from 12 to 20 kilotons) I’ve seen the explosion energy quoted as approximately 500 kilotons; described as roughly 30 Hiroshima bombs (not 200). ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2013, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792/49 "2013-02-20T15:47:17Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > I’ve seen the explosion energy quoted as approximately 500 kilotons; described as roughly 30 Hiroshima bombs (not 200). Oops yes sorry 20 times, not 200 times Hiroshima. So before I heard the 500Kt my rough calculation was about 300Kt. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-likely-that-the-russian-meteorite-was-shot-down/650792.md?page=2)