# Is it possible to predict the weather a century from now in a given spot? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 22, 2016, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874 "2016-03-22T17:46:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/21 "2016-03-23T15:45:06Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > 100 years from today in Hilo Hawaii the high will be around 80 the low will be around 68 and it will rain for about 5-15 minutes. Just like every other day. 100 years and five months from now, Phoenix will be clear skies with the temperature between 110-117. It will not have rained since January. Just like every other day in August. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/22 "2016-03-23T15:50:22Z")
> [@chrisk](#): > > Can anybody figure out what the Dyson sphere has to do with the OP? 😉 NM vacuum cleaner joke ninja’d ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/23 "2016-03-23T16:49:22Z")
Up until about 20 years ago the NWS gave weather predictions by looking in an almanac and averaging the previous 30 years on that date. Then tweaking the prediction hotter or colder or wetter or dryer based on how yesterday was a couple hundred miles upwind from wherever they were. That worked a LOT better than the early computer models. It’s only recently that we’ve gotten routinely better forecasts than simple long-term averages like that. The hardest part about issuing a prediction for 100 years from today in Chicago is that we know global warming is changing stuff pretty quickly. 100 years from now will be very different from today. At least for the values of “very” which affect clouds and precip. So while we can predict the daily weather for 5 years from now using an adjusted average of the last 10-20 years, we can’t reliably do that for 100 years. Because we’re entering a new climate era and all bets will be off soon. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/24 "2016-03-23T17:02:37Z")
\*\*Is it possible to predict the weather a century from now in a given spot? \*\* Sure - just build an air-conditioned building over the spot, set the thermostat, and wait a hundred years. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/25 "2016-03-23T19:25:20Z")
It’s a trick question. I can predict the whether a century from now because my then I’ll have already ground up your planet (as well as the rest of the solar system) into parts for my Dyson sphere. ---
**Author:** ![Daylate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9dc877/32.png) [@Daylate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daylate)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/26 "2016-03-24T02:11:59Z")
The Weather Bureau out here in the Pacific Northwest had a stab last fall at predicting the general type of weather we would have this winter. Their prediction was for a warmer and dryer winter than usual. Well, they were half right, for the temperature part of the prediction. But we then proceeded to have the wettest winter that has ever been recorded, by a whole bunch. I heard a Weather Weenie on the radio last week. He was actually apologizing for blowing the forecast that bad. Blamed it on pressures in the Gulf of Alaska. And they have no idea what caused that particular pressure system to be formed. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/27 "2016-03-24T02:13:47Z")
Is it possible to predict the weather a century from now in a given spot? Yes. Accuracy is another matter. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/28 "2016-03-24T06:46:33Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > 100 years from today in Hilo Hawaii the high will be around 80 the low will be around 68 and it will rain for about 5-15 minutes. Just like every other day. Tsunamis notwithstanding. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/29 "2016-03-26T05:01:49Z")
[http://xkcd.com/1606/](http://xkcd.com/1606/)It’s easier if you extend the timeline. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2016, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874/30 "2016-03-26T10:48:05Z")
> [@kopek](#): > > Several people have come close to me; can I predict it? Sure! The high will be 57 and the low 43 degrees, winds will be light and from the southwest, and some of the northern districts will see some cloud cover but most areas will have good strong sun for a majority of the daylight hours. Clouds will be rolling in before dusk however. See? Predictions are the easy part. > Will I be correct? Possibly but even I wouldn’t bet on it. Go ahead and bet. Even if you lose, it’s extremely unlikely anyone will be trying to collect from you. Also: is it even possible to live on a Dyson Sphere? I thought the point was to live IN them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-weather-a-century-from-now-in-a-given-spot/749874.md?page=1)