Is it safe to go to the gym?

How would you know? Unless they were literally dropping like flies when you were there, how would you know? Do you keep attendance records for all patrons along with the reason they are playing hooky?

In answer to the OP, I cancelled my membership. My state is open, I am fully vaxxed. I just couldn’t do it. The pandemic is not over, the delta variant is surging, and I’m just not going to do it. I am still social distancing, wearing my mask and only going out as needed.

I believe that their precise claims are true. The number of people at the wedding, the variant they tested for, the treatments the people got.

But the data they cite about the vaccination status of patients zero is that they weren’t fully vaccinated. And while they list which vaccines patients 1-4 got, they don’t say anything about the timing. Given that they seem to have muddied their reporting of patients zero, this article seems somewhat weak.

I think there is other evidence of breakthrough infection. I’m not saying “everything is fine”. But that paper does have some shortcomings.

Heh. I must have been typing my responses while @puzzlegal posted this. I basically said the exact same thing.

Let’s go back to the original post question: Is it safe to go back to the gym. This was an outdoor wedding, which is considerably ‘safer’ type of social gathering than having people exerting themselves for the better part of an hour at a gym. At least with the wedding, they at least attempted to ensure that everyone was vaccinated. Whether they were fully immune is beside the point - what matters is, relative to going to a gym in which you have no clue who’s vaccinated and who isn’t, an outdoor wedding in which people are vaccinated is incontrovertibly safer by comparison. And so what happened? What happened was that out of the 92 people who were mostly vaccinated, 6 came down with noticeable symptoms. One required ICU care. Another required a funeral. It is what it is.

I generally just do group classes at the gym. After a while you start to recognize the regulars. It’s common to do a bit of chit-chat while waiting for the classes or whatever. If one of the regulars was out for a while, it would be natural to ask where they’ve been. If the class participants were getting sick all the time, we would likely know one way or another. And there’s the instructors who are teaching classes several times a week. If they were out sick, that would definitely be noticeable. Certainly some people did get sick, but it seems way less than I would expect considering there are 30+ people in the room doing stuff like breathing hard, touching common stuff, sweating all over the place, etc. It seems like the perfect place for widespread virus transmission, but instead it seemed like it rarely happened.

There is usually alcohol at weddings, and with that social distancing may disappear.

I answered that in an earlier post -

Back to the original topic, I don’t think it is safe to go to a gym if you are in an area that already has a high number of Delta cases unless everyone is wearing a mask and/or the gym has very few people. Being at a gym is as bad as being at a wedding unless you know that the ventilation/filtration system is outstanding. You can control surfaces, but you can’t control the aerosols floating around and accumulating.

Within 2-3 weeks, Delta is going to be the new reality for the entire country. It is outcompeting other strains. Why? Because the early research suggests that it brings with it higher viral load. When Delta hits you, it knocks you on your fucking ass.

The vaccines do lower the viral load, which is good. However, if you are in a room full of unvaccinated people, then the value of the vaccine drops. The concentration of COVID virus is going to make it more toxic. And if you have underlying conditions, then there’s a risk of being hospitalized or killed.

Absolutely. So I say to the OP is to look at what medical experts are directly recommending (studies are fine on their own, but their interpretation and implications are also best left to experts, IMO) and use that to assess your own personal level of comfort and risk. I’m not sure there’s an objective, final answer we can give; it’s up to you in the end.

Of course getting COVID isn’t a good thing, but it is not known that Delta is any worse than previous varieties when it comes to severe disease.

“As far as anyone can tell, Delta isn’t more dangerous in the sense that it causes worse disease,” Wurtz told me. “It’s a sneaky opportunist, not a mayhem man.”

Janet Baseman, a University of Washington epidemiologist, said: “I have not seen compelling evidence that the Delta variant is more severe.” Dr. Paul Sax of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston told me, “This sense of greater disease severity is more anecdotal than driven by actual data.” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research said, “I don’t think it makes kids sicker.”

Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania said that he did not think Delta required vaccinated parents to behave differently than they did a few weeks ago. Richterman has young children himself, and his family has not changed its behavior, he said.

There’s data

There is some indication that the Delta variant may also result in more severe disease. A study in Scotland, published in the Lancet , found the hospitalization rate of patients with that variant was about 85 percent higher than that of people with the Alpha variant. But because of the time lag between hospitalizations and deaths, there is not enough data to say whether or not Delta is more deadly than other variants. “The thing we were surprised by is just how rapidly the Delta variant took hold,” says Aziz Sheikh, a professor of primary care at the University of Edinburgh and lead author of the Lancet study. “We were again in an exponential phase of growth of cases.” This should be a lesson for the U.S., he says.

I’ll concede that this is a month old and they’re constantly gathering new information, but there’s a growing body of research suggesting that the delta variant is more transmissible in large part because the virus replicates much faster in this variant than in previous ones. It also results in a much faster progression of the disease. You can go from feeling unwell to fighting for your life much faster with the delta variant.

I agree with this.

This might be true. It also could be true, yet Delta overall results in less severe disease for the majority of infected individuals. As of right now, my understanding of the available evidence leads me to believe Delta is not any more severe than previous variants.

We do agree (I assume) that the vaccines keep people out of the hospital – even with delta, two doses of either Pfizer or Moderna seem to do a really, really good job in that regard.

As I think I said somewhere on this thread (maybe another one), if you’re under the age of 45 and don’t have any underlying conditions (high blood pressure being a big one, btw), I think you’re chances of getting seriously ill are really, really low if you’re vaccinated, even if you slip up and forget to wear a mask, though I’d still advise that as a precautionary tool (why take chances?).

My concern is for the people who are over the age of 45 and who believe that the vaccines essentially guarantee their safety, because it does not. That’s when I think someone needs to be a little more aware of the odds, and particularly the odds of what is likely to happen if they get infected with COVID in a breakthrough infection. I write this knowing that many of the posters are 45 or older. I don’t mean to be overly-alarmist or to suggest that people still live in perpetual lockdown mode, but I still think vaccinated people should wear masks in public, and unvaccinated absolutely should. Unvaccinated people really need to stay in their home until they can get vaccinated. They’re playing a very dangerous game.