Is it time to declare war on Oil?

So you were in fact using a not-in-anyone-else’s-dictionary meaning of “slightly.” And arbitrarily defining “doubled price” as “a slightly larger small number.” What is your a priori source as to what a “large” price would be? Europe or Asia? There are places there where gas is $8, maybe a bit more. None of any significance where it is $20. You can’t just move the goal posts – you said “slightly higher” prices would mean that people “don’t drive.” I demonstrated that this was not true for most people, for a price that anyone else on this board would agree was more than “slightly” higher.

As for the rest of your response – again, you are not free (if you wish to claim any credibility or intellectual honesty) to have double-secret-black-is-actually-white definitions of “people wouldn’t do it.” Everyone else here is talking factually about what that means in view of actual human conduct (doubling the price leads to slight reduction in driving). You are clearly using “wouldn’t do it” to mean “I wouldn’t do it” (I’m not assuming that’s an honest answer, by the way) or “shouldn’t do it.” My response talked about how actual Americans actually viewed the negotiabity or discretionary nature of driving and the answer, as acted out in irrefutable action, is that they view it as only slightly negotiable even with significant increased price.

Your pointing out that a Phoenix area commuter facing a 40 mile trip has multiple options, as of this morning, for how to get to work, is trivial and unhelpful – none of them are consistent, as of 6:30 this morning, with his keeping his job.

Your insistence that “people wouldn’t [drive]” drive if gas were more expensive, or that people’s actual views on the discretionary nature of driving should be ignored in favor of your much more enlightened views, is just a waste of time in the context of my contention that no American politician is going to force “driving is discretionary and you really won’t miss it” down the throats of an electorate that believes strongly to the contrary.

What the hell are you talking about?

If gas was at $8 and it doubled to $16, that is a big change, that is a large number becoming a much larger number. Gas going from $1 to $2 is a small change. Are you familiar with the number system? Is an $8 increase the same as a $1 increase? Or am I allowed to say one is large and the other is small?

The rest of your post was nonsense. Americans choose to commute 40 miles to work, they are not forced to. At some point that 40 mile drive will get converted to being $4 a day, $20 a week, and get compared to alternatives. If Joe the Plumber wakes up tomorrow and his car doesn’t work, is he doomed? Does he just curl up and die?

And frankly, the assertion that “the war on oil” would have to happen instantly is a ridiculous and laughable strawman.

What should scare you more is that if America is so dependent on oil, you’re all fucked when it’s supply gets disrupted. What is poor little Joe the Plumber going to do the next time there is an oil crisis? It should be viewed as a matter of national security that the US never use a drop of the stuff, foreign or domestic.

I don’t expect you to understand this, but read along very closely:

(1) you have not been granted by God the ability to decide what is a “small” or “large” price for gasoline. When gasoline was $2 in 2005, $4 was an unimaginably large number. To look at it backward (as you seem to be doing) – what is to say $16 is “large?” You made an assertion based on a “slightly higher price” that was at odds with 99% of the population’s definition of slightly higher. You didn’t disclose that you had your own authoritative secret definition of slightly. A disingenous position at best, a stupid one at worst.

(2) Where in the Hell have I asserted that people are “forced” to commute? You made the idiotic (factual) assertion that “slight” gas price increases would mean “people wouldn’t drive.” I pointed out that they would and did still choose to drive.

Your problem (I don’t expect you to understand this either) is that you are confusing the descriptive with the normative. I have not done anything but describe what people would and did choose to do. You described what you thinnk (in a very smug and supercilious way) they ought to choose to do, but you did it by pretending that they would make that choice. We get your point, you’re so much smarter and better than everyone else (who is doomed). Don’t waste our time, though, with policy prescriptions based on some messianic view of fighting or hating a substance, accompanied by assurances that your simplistic, simple ideas (just raise the gas prices “slightly”) would ensure that “people wouldn’t drive.” They would, so do not pass go, do not collect $200. Policies for people have to be policies that people would in a real world adopt.

I say we declare on China and Tibet to steal their lithium. And can we get an over/under on how long before the lefty whackjobs start painting their ‘no blood for lithium’ signs?

Depends on the value of a dollar, I should say. When I was a kid, it was unimaginable to think of paying more than $5 for a fast food meal…today it usually costs me something like 20-30 to take the kids to McDonald's. When gas was a buck (and yeah, I remember when it was...when it was .50/gallon for that matter) the thought of it being $4/gallon was a HUGE deal…unimaginably so. Today, the thought of $8/gallon gas is the same way (here in the US at least), but if it happens gradually, over time, folks will get used to it…as they have gotten used to the current prices (and even the spike prices where it topped $4/gallon).

BTW…going from $8/gallon to $16/gallon is exactly the same as going from $1/gallong to $2/gallon, as they are both factors of 2. :stuck_out_tongue:

No? I suppose no one put a gun to their heads, to be sure. Just like no one has ‘forced’ poor people to live in ghettos, or ‘forced’ people to work at places like Walmart. I mean, they could always move…right? Get a better job…right?

And on an individual basis, it IS right…they COULD move, COULD get a better job. The key word there, however, is COULD.

Frankly, the idea of a ‘war on oil’ is what’s REALLY laughable.

It took decades to build up to our current dependence (hell, half a century)…do you suppose we’ll ween ourselves off of it in less time? Something we are already starting to do IMHO. No silly war required.

-XT

We could abandon oil and go back to the kind of economy we had around 1900.

Of course the population of the world was about one quarter of what it is now. And we use oil in food production. So we might have to kill off four billion or so people.

But hey, omelets and eggs.

Because many people prefer it. And for some folks like myself, It would cost way, way more for me to move close to work than live 25 miles away like I do now.

It’s just not feasible or desirable to have everyone living in a city center. Outside of the fact that many people don’t consider that to be utopia, there will always be outlying areas that require workers.

Now what the fuck are you talking about.

You were the one that said people in Phoenix have no other option.

And $4 a gallon was not “unimaginable.” It might have been to you, but anyone that has ever been outside of the US was already well aware of $4 per gallon. Well, I guess it might have been unimaginable to them since they knew it probably wouldn’t ever be that low.

We don’t need as much oil as we use. And we do not need to live in some bullshit 18c existence. Those are ridiculous scare tactics.

Thanks to the lifestyle that cheap oil afforded us, we now have other technological advancements that could minimum the amount of oil we use–without going back in time. Of course it would require changes to our infrastructure. But so what, are you suggesting we’re just stuck with it?

None of this is relevant, and frankly it doesn’t matter what people “prefer.” Or this idea of utopia.

Right now, because gas is so cheap, living far from city-centers seems cheap. Right now that $25 ride might cost you a gallon of gas. Land value tends to go down as you move further away, and the problem today is that the cost to get there doesn’t go up. But it doesn’t have to be that way. And it doesn’t have to be oil based.

But cities after Eisenhower evolved to have lots and lots of roads. No side walks, no bike lanes, no rail lines, just roads.

To address your specific fear: electrically powered rail lines could connect your area with other areas of interest. You could use an electrically powered car to get to a local transit hub. Large businesses could run shuttles from near by transit hubs. This sort of thing is not unheard of. It’s not even that bad, often times way better than 45min in traffic.

Show me where I said that. You cannot, because what I actually said is whatever options he has are not, as of 6:30 this morning, consistent with his making it to work on time readily.

Just take back the part where you glibly assure us that “slight” gas price increases mean “people wouldn’t” (not shouldn’t), drive, and I’ll leave this silly thread alone.

Oh, I know. Before it makes any sense to move into the ‘city’ (town really), I’ll be telecomuting and such. Train will be imposible. And they did try a bus route/shuttle but that did not work out. And yep, as gas becomes more expensive, and other options open up, I will simply move to that.

It most certainly does matter what people prefer. Many people prefer living in the city. Many others don’t.

The real irony is that if the US did anything to reduce its oil consumption, the price of oil would fall dramatically–making it that much harder to justify not using oil.

Where did you come up with the 6:30 bullshit? Did I say it? Did the OP say it? Are you sure you’re in the right thread?

Gas price increases will decrease the amount people drive. Deal with it.

All Hanna Montana, all the time.

I thought so. You tried to propose some dramatic all-or-nothing “war” (which also made you feel good about your moral superiority due to your “antipathy” to oil). You raised the stakes by implying just how easy this would be if only everyone was a smart as you (“slight” price increases would mean “people don’t drive.”).

When challenged, you either retreat from or change the definition of your previously-shiny adjectives and absolute guarantees. Now you’re reduced to saying that [some degree] of gas price increase will lead to [some degree of] diminished driving. Really Sherlock? Nowhere near as simple and guaranteed as you wanted us to believe with “slight” and “stop driving.”

Which means at best you’ve backed off to an incrementalist transition, which the market would be driving anyhow. Which means a silly “war on oil” was never on the cards and you’ve wasted a lot of time, but thanks for playing.

Too cruel and far to usual. You, sir, are a monster! How can you sleep at night??

(obligatory ‘think of the children’ ironic statement…)

-XT

Um, what now?

I proposed a war on oil? When did I do that?

May I clear up a few things?

First of all, I am not suggesting flipping the switch on oil. ‘Mah fellah 'Merricans, August 29th 2010 is the last day oil will be available in 'Merrica. Prepare yourselves.’ Um no, that is not what I meant. Who fights a war like that? Even a blitzkrieg takes longer to unfold :rolleyes: Not destroying civilization seems like a predictable boundary for a war strategy, no?

-The idea isn’t rubbish, WMFellows.

-Yes, antipathy. Whether the idea reflects a distasteful cosmology or not, Americans need to be motivated to reject oil. Antipathy toward oil (phrased better for the ad campaign) is something a lot of regular folks will be able to relate to.

-A war on oil might suck on an individual experiential level, but the long-term results are worth it. It’d prevent military conflicts like Iraq. It could be an excuse to replace or mitigate the war in Afghanistan, for starters. It could vanquish the specter of raised taxes to cut the debt by leveling our trade balance instead. It would stimulate the economy in the short term. The national message for once would not be bullshit, as the actual cause of many of our problems would be the target.

-The environment is not the motive.

-I admit there are currently some sclerotic measures being taken to reduce our dependence on oil and other fossil fuels. But as has been pointed out, it is not nearly fast enough. This country needs to realize that they are being screwed by oil. They should become angry when they realize that the choice architecture in this country leaves them without options. They aren’t free, they are enriching people they don’t like, and oil dependence is like a train on a track into a brick wall. Before a (very profitable to the oil companies) crisis emerges, this country needs to crack the whip, get off its ass and get off oil in a God damned hurry :mad:

-Interference from oil and fossil fuel interests is a significant factor in the retarded pace of our energy transition.

Unless I found out that the energy companies were subverting nuclear or solar, I don’t know how they could really interfere with a more promising or efficient form of energy store.

In fact, most U.S. and global energy companies have massively hedged their bets with big investments in other energy sources – most obviously, for our short term purposes, natural gas. Are you aware just how much natural gas we’ve gained access to in just the past 2-3 years through horizontal drilling in the Barnett Shale, Marcellus, etc.? It is a number that almost no one would have imagined coming on line so massively, so fast. It seems likely the U.S. could meet a huge portion of its BTU requirements internally for the next 40 years. Unlike with hydrogen or solar or other green-beloved techs, natty gas is also readily fungible for many coal power plants (like, overnight) and could be retrofitted to much of our vehicle/gas station installation within . . . x years, x being less than ten if there were anything approaching an oil crisis.

Thing is . . . markets being devilishly dynamic and technology guys being devilishly clever . . . the odds of such an oil crisis are arguably waning, not waxing. Have you heard of the Eagle Ford oil shale play in So. Tex.? Industry estimates think we’re going to pump 900 millions bbl. from that in the next 10 years, give or take. But what about China? China’s desperate for energy too, right? Sure (mutatis mutandis, if the double dip recession hits and the real estate bubble does pop). But have you heard of the Junggar, Tarim, or Sichuan shale plays in Western China? Look them up. Bottom line, there’s a lot of carbon (and a few non-carbon energy sources) in the world that can in a pinch be substituted for oil – and the pinch isn’t likely to be super-sudden or acute. I always remind myself that a bunch of idiot Nazis being bombed day and night managed, within the space of a few short years, to keep a hyper-modern wartime military/economy and transport system running (not so well on the civilian side perhaps) for about two years with effectively no native or accessible oil resources. “Peak oil” isn’t a myth/oversimplification because there’s not a finite limit to the amount of carbon on Earth; it’s an oversimplification because of the failure to account for the multivariate interaction of easily recoverable oil, vs. recoverable oil [using today’s technology], vs. [recoverable oil using future exploration drilling and refinement technologies], vs. [cheapish oil substitutes/feedstocks], vs. [less cheap substitutes/feedstocks], vs. [other energy sources,] all taking place in a world of dynamic markets and economically rational scientists and businessmen.

So, no radical crisis, no dramatic crisis response required. “Sclerotic,” for instance, is hardly the word I would use for the super-rapid bringing on line of vast U.S. natty deposits – it was nimble, incredibly innovative, and potentially game-changing – and it took place in less than a decade.

To coin an English phrase, I think he was spot on.

In favor of what, exactly? Let’s say you get those evil Americans to reject oil…then what happens? What does ‘reject oil’ even MEAN??

When the neo-Luddite faction is in the house, who can say? You set no parameters after all. Even though you supposedly cleared things up here, you still have yet to do so. What kind of time frames are we talking about here? A year? That’s about what it took Germany to beat the crap out of France. 5 years? A decade? Several? You don’t say.

Sure. ‘Regular folks’ get behind all sorts of stupid things though. If asked, most of them would love the US to impose tariffs and trade restrictions up the ying yang. Many of those ‘regular folks’ would favor prayer in school, abortion, teaching ID in the class room and any number of other dippy ideas. For instance, ‘regular folks’ are all for keeping our nuclear power industry neutered.

You have this backwards. It would suck on a national level, especially long-term, unless there is a viable alternative and a transition path to get there. Trying to engineer such a path by pulling it out of your ass and imposing it by fiat (or, in your case, but stirring up antipathy and fear, or however you mean to stir up the ‘regular folks’ and make them think that sacrificing their entire way of life is a great idea) is the path of disaster. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, and all that.

Maybe so, maybe no. You can assert this, but that doesn’t make it so. The US will still have global interests, even if we check oil off the list. What elements will your magic ponies require to make our wonderful new energy source…and who will have them? You seem to be assuming they will be right here in the good ole USA, but that’s an assumption based on the fact that you are not getting too specific where this supposed alternative comes from or is.

But back here in the real world it doesn’t work that way. Think about what you are saying here…we are going to get a magic new energy source (price and reality check unknown) AND we’ll get No Mo’ Wahr!, plus tax cuts, trade surpluses, (presumably) jobs JOBS JOBS!! and a free blow job every day too boot! I mean…seriously??

How so? It would cost us big time in the short term, again depending on what time frames we are talking about. It has the potential to cause huge dislocations, since our current society is based on the performance envelop of the freaking car. Unless your magic ponies have similar performance you could be displacing or causing hardships in the short term for millions…hell, 10’s of millions. And then there are the costs associated with building out a new infrastructure (for whatever magic we are talking here). In the SHORT term, that’s RED ink, not BLACK, because it takes time to recoup that level of epic investment. Even if you are the good ole USA with seemingly unlimited (snort) funds.

If you guess right and actually pick the right pony we MIGHT do well in the medium and long term. Of course, I’d say the odds of anyone guessing what the next generation of energy and personal transport will be are pretty low right now, so most likely you’d trash our economy today and find that you’ve fucked us in the medium and long terms as well.

But we’d be off the evil oil. China (and India, not to mention our Euro buddies who don’t seem to be giving up the stuff either), on the other hand would, with great reluctance no doubt, be happy to take that nasty oil off the world market at reduced prices (due to the lack of demand by the US)…

Workers and peasants! Your sacrifice is not in vein! Even though things will be shitty for you, your children will enjoy a workers paradise (plus there is that free weekly blowjob to contemplate)!

Yeah, this is all new…

Fast enough for WHAT, exactly? Why isn’t the current dynamic ‘fast enough’?

-XT