# Is it time to start planning for 4 more years of Trump? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468 "2020-08-31T18:11:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/81 "2020-09-02T15:35:53Z")
So, he should have been for it? Not sure what it is exactly that is making you so _sad, so sad._ ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/82 "2020-09-02T15:49:57Z")
The fact that it’s such a low bar. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/83 "2020-09-02T16:03:41Z")
Right now, my unofficial projections are that Biden will probably get between 300-320 electoral votes. Some of these elections could be very close and break the other way. But I am reasonably confident that Biden will get more votes. Having said that, I thought Clinton was a lock to get at least 290 EVs in 2016 and we know what happened with that prediction, lol. And as I’ve posted before, simply getting more votes - even winning enough to be projected the winner - may not be enough this time. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/84 "2020-09-02T16:22:14Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > I just watched Biden flub through a speech, and the polls are looking worse. Isn’t it weird that Trump can’t form complete sentences, but if Biden stutters just _once_ he imperils his entire campaign? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/85 "2020-09-02T17:26:39Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Any commentary on the piece you would like to offer, or is this just a drive-by? > > Anyway, I don’t need to read it, as the byline that comes up in the preview itself is a falsehood, so I doubt that there is any value to the rest. > > As the one who chose to share this, does it actually make any valid points, or just continue with the same false narrative it starts with? Since the poster can’t be bothered to comment I will make a couple of observations about the article that was linked and the assertions made in it. - FIrst, the economy is in tatters but Trump will simply blame it on Democrats not going along with the second stimulus bill and that voters trust Trump more on the economy than Biden according to the polls. The author links to an NYT article to support this position but after reading the article I don’t agree that is the conclusion they draw. So pretty much a fail on this point. - Second, social discord and unrest is increasing and will hurt the Ds and Biden since Trump is successfully shifting blame on this issue. I’m not necessarily buying this argument either but who knows. I do think the change in weather come Fall will result in a slowdown of protests but again, who knows. I think the “this is Biden’s America” argument is a giant fail for Trump since it is so easy to rebut it by pointing out this is all actually happening in Trump’s America. - Finally, the author asserts there will be a coronavirus vaccine by mid-October because the FDA is being encouraged to fast track it and this will allow Trump to claim victory over COVID. I find this to be the biggest bullshit argument of the three. Not only do I doubt there will be an effective vaccine before the election but I also think it highly likely rushing to release an untested or proven vaccine has a high likelihood of blowing up in Trump’s face if it doesn’t work or starts making people ill or killing them. So you are correct in my opinion of thinking it is mostly a pile of BS. And I would note, I have been on record for months saying that Trump will be reelected and even now am still not convinced Biden and the Ds can pull this off. But I don’t think the reasons in that article are the reasons why that may happen. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/86 "2020-09-02T17:36:24Z")
Playing the devil’s advocate for a moment, the potential opening for Trump could be that perceptions stabilize just enough. He could conceivably win the EV contest by the thinnest of margins if he can convince some of the softer supporters or right-leaning centrists that things are gradually improving and that the solution (Biden) might not be necessary after all. I personally think that possibility is remote, but it exists nevertheless. The incumbent doesn’t necessarily need to have things going great to win; he just can’t have people fearing for their futures. As bad as COVID-19 is, people have by now started to factor this into their daily lives, and with talks of vaccines and new treatments, it’s possible that Trump somehow survives his disastrous handling of COVID-19. The economy will ultimately be the key. People are probably more worried about living the next few years without a steady job than they are dying from COVID. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/87 "2020-09-02T17:44:45Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But it’s not “slightly skewed” – it’s overwhelmingly skewed, and not just to small states, but to swing states. Voters in CA, TX, and NY, pretty much don’t matter when it comes to electing the President. Voters in NH, OH, FL, WI, and a few other states matter immensely. That’s not remotely fair or democratic. Every American should have the exact same voting influence in Presidential elections. Anything less is undemocratic. But isn’t the reason that “voters in CA, TX, and NY pretty much don’t matter” that so many of them vote the same way? They collectively matter, but no individual voter has a chance of influencing the election. But wouldn’t that same thing be true under a direct popular election, just on a national scale instead of a state scale, if there were a clear majority of American voters who favored one candidate over the other? ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/88 "2020-09-02T18:13:05Z")
I agree. It’s BS. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/89 "2020-09-02T18:16:21Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > But isn’t the reason that “voters in CA, TX, and NY pretty much don’t matter” that so many of them vote the same way? They collectively matter, but no individual voter has a chance of influencing the election. > > But wouldn’t that same thing be true under a direct popular election, just on a national scale instead of a state scale, if there were a clear majority of American voters who favored one candidate over the other? Under a direct popular election, every single American voter would have exactly the same influence. A voter in NYC would have the same chance to influence the election as a voter in Des Moines, or small towns everywhere. Right now, it’s vastly different depending on what state you live in, such that the biggest cities in the country get zero attention during presidential campaigns. They shouldn’t get all the attention, but it’s absolutely ridiculous that they get none. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/90 "2020-09-02T18:16:56Z")
Much higher bar than the posts you seem to be throwing out around here, at least. Do you actually have a point, a comment, or just passive aggressive assertions to be made? What standards are you looking for that he is not meeting? That could be a useful comment. If all you can do is point to someone doing something that they should do, and complaining that it is an easy thing to do, that’s just not debate, it’s not even criticism, it’s just childish whining. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/91 "2020-09-02T18:19:40Z")
> [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](#): > > You could always just say, “Well, the people have spoken,” and accept it. Like the founders intended. I will if he wins the popular vote. I’ll be upset, but hey, that’s how it goes. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/92 "2020-09-02T18:21:06Z")
I think one of the surest signs one is brainwashed or easily fooled is if they defend the Electoral College. There is no reason not to count every single person’s vote as 1.0 value, including the people of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, who receive 0.0 votes right now. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/93 "2020-09-02T18:21:13Z")
Thanks for taking one for the team. I promise not to send you to North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/94 "2020-09-02T19:49:42Z")
My job lets me work anywhere from home. Is it easier to go to Canada if I have a job already? ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/95 "2020-09-02T19:57:32Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > Isn’t it weird that Trump can’t form complete sentences, but if Biden stutters just _once_ he imperils his entire campaign? It has never been a fair fight against Trump. Democrats are held to far higher standards. And I don’t understand it. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/96 "2020-09-02T20:31:47Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > My job lets me work anywhere from home. Is it easier to go to Canada if I have a job already? As I understand it, yes. It’s still not particularly easy. Having a degree helps, as does have a Canadian job offer. I emigrated to Canada because I had a job offer from a Canadian company, and my skillset is very specialized. I don’t have a degree, though, so the “quick route” in would be a lot more difficult for me. ---
**Author:** ![mtnmatt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a3d4f5/32.png) [@mtnmatt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mtnmatt)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/97 "2020-09-02T20:37:15Z")
I’m a US citizen who worked for a US-based division of a global company, overseeing a team and set of customers in Canada. I got seriously grilled every time I tried to enter the country - including once when I was arriving for the purposed of interviewing Canadians for local jobs. I eventually had to get a work visa, which required a host of documentation, including my 30-year old college diploma (which fortunately my mom had recently sent me) and a ton of justification from the company and its local division. I often thought it would be really nice to live there, but it seemed unlikely to actually work out given the hurdles I went through just to visit for a few days of work. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/98 "2020-09-02T22:08:06Z")
I have 2 degrees and my job is in high demand. I get 4-5 calls and emails a week about jobs. One day I got 4 calls before lunch. Calls have not slowed down at all this year. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2020, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/99 "2020-09-06T00:28:40Z")
Thank you; that finally clarifies what you’re talking about. Have finally sorted out the time to listen to the whole thing, from which you’ve picked out one tangled up phrase; which Biden sensibly just continued on from in a generally coherent and quite impressive speech. Describing that as ‘watching Biden flub through a speech’ is absurd. Few people can talk for 25 minutes with no stumbles whatsoever. People who are on the ball know how to deal smoothly with the fact that they stumbled. That’s what Biden did. If Biden loses this election, it won’t be because he can’t make a coherent speech, which he can and does. It’ll be because too many of the voters chose somebody who actually can’t do so. It is not clear to me, if you don’t want Trump elected, why you’re trying to present Biden as incoherent when he isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2020, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468/100 "2020-09-06T12:15:43Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > … > > - Finally, the author asserts there will be a coronavirus vaccine by mid-October because the FDA is being encouraged to fast track it and this will allow Trump to claim victory over COVID. I find this to be the biggest bullshit argument of the three. Not only do I doubt there will be an effective vaccine before the election but I also think it highly likely rushing to release an untested or proven vaccine has a high likelihood of blowing up in Trump’s face if it doesn’t work or starts making people ill or killing them. > > … I agree with the risk, but I think you’ve flubbed the timing. As always with Trump, the important thing is the grand announcement of total success _before_ the project actually begins. C.f. border wall. So imagine here we are in mid-late October and the airwaves & TwitFace are flooded with vids of humming vaccine factories, refrigerator trucks arriving at hospitals, drive-up vaccination stations being set up. By Nov 3 the first 100K ~~health care workers~~ guinea pigs are vaccinated amid lots of triumphant smirking from Trump. The election is held, Trump wins in a bout of euphoria; “Thanks be to Almighty Trump! This Pandemic is Over!!1!!1!”,. Three weeks later the vaccinated people start contracting COVID in much high numbers and dying from it at a higher rate than before. Oops. TLDR: the downside of any vaccine / vaccination effort legitimately won’t be obvious before Nov 3. It’s pure PR upside between now & then. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-time-to-start-planning-for-4-more-years-of-trump/919468.md?page=6)