# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/202 "2012-09-26T16:13:31Z")
The OP answer is “yes.” It really depends on what Romney does to turn things around. However, I’m not sure that he’ll take the “right” path. Take [this National Review](http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/328544/romneys-new-strategy-stanley-kurtz) comment. Perhaps it IS a viable strategy. But to me, it reeks of “if only we explain how bad Obama is a _little_ better, _this time_ the voters will get it!” It strikes me as a rewarmed, previously failed strategy that has as much chance of getting traction this time as it did the last time - perhaps even less, considering we’ve lived under Obama’s policies for the last four years. How much better can the explanation be this time? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/203 "2012-09-26T16:35:18Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > My mom told me …rather hysterically after the last Mittens gaffe…that she was going to get an absentee ballot so she could vote for him RIGHT NOW. I think she’s scared that his next mistake may be bad enough to change her mind and she wants to avoid that eventuality. Is she part of the 47% that Romney has written off? Now might be a good time to remind her about that… ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/204 "2012-09-26T20:07:09Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [This isn’t good for the Romney campaign](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/polls-show-obama-widening-lead-in-ohio-and-florida.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www) > > FL: Obama +9% > OH: Obama +10% > PA: Obama +12% He may be peaking too early. > [@Leaper](#): > > The OP answer is “yes.” It really depends on what Romney does to turn things around. > > However, I’m not sure that he’ll take the “right” path. Take [this National Review](http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/328544/romneys-new-strategy-stanley-kurtz) comment. Perhaps it IS a viable strategy. But to me, it reeks of “if only we explain how bad Obama is a _little_ better, _this time_ the voters will get it!” It strikes me as a rewarmed, previously failed strategy that has as much chance of getting traction this time as it did the last time - perhaps even less, considering we’ve lived under Obama’s policies for the last four years. How much better can the explanation be this time? There are very few series of events that could reasonably occur that would put Mitt in the white house. I think more people believe that the economy is about as good as it can be, especially considering the obstructionist congress. Thanks to Bill Clinton - Secretary of Explaining Stuff. The majority of Americans agree that Obama tried to work with Republicans (60%) A minority of Americans think that Republicans are making the same effort to work with Obama (27%) Republican obstructionism is really starting to look like people putting party before country. I’d really like to see Clinton stumping in swing districts across the country. I bet he could swing half a dozen districts by showing how obstructionist their purported “moderate” Republican congressman has been. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/205 "2012-09-26T20:32:24Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > People keep saying this and I can’t understand it at all. > > Romney was probably the most moderate candidate in the field from the beginning. (Yes, more moderate than Huntsman on most issues. Huntsman is extremely conservative.) Romney is one of the most moderate national Republican figures. There are few left, and will be fewer in the future. Yet Romney was the obvious winner from the start. None of the many conservatives farther right than him had any real chance to win the nomination. Why? Because the so-called Tea Party wing is a minority even among Republicans. (And I said that before the primaries so this isn’t 20:20 hindsight.) But during the primaries the right wing candidates - individually and as a group - consistently outpolled Romney. Some of this might be because he is just a bad candidate. Also, Romney really never beat anyone but Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich remember lost all his money and campaign staff, and was a kook, so that he was even a challenge didn’t speak well for Romney. Santorum came from nowhere only after Romney had it wrapped up. We can only wonder how the other candidates would have done if they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot. So I don’t think you can say Romney won due to his relative level of being a moderate. And of course he didn’t run as a moderate. > [@](#): > > The Republican Party as a whole is certainly conservative. Romney has manifestly pandered to that base. But that base is basically the entire party outside of the tiny minorities in New England so anyone running for a national office has to pitch a campaign at that majority. Primary yes. But not for the national campaign. Romney didn’t shake the Etch-a-Sketch, he scribbled more stuff onto it. Why did he pick Ryan? Did he cave in? Did he think it would help? Did he really believe Ryan’s crap? Palin actually made more sense. A moderate Republican would have a chance in a general election - a good one. But the demographics are increasingly hurting the traditional Republican base. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/206 "2012-09-26T20:41:25Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > He may be peaking too early. I believe early voting is open now, and as far as I can tell, having a sizable lead is always a good thing. It doesn’t matter what your peak is. Maybe Obama will never have a bigger lead than this and maybe he will, but you don’t get extra points for finishing with the largest possible lead. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/207 "2012-09-26T20:46:06Z")
You get to say you’ve got a mandate. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/208 "2012-09-26T20:48:28Z")
You can say that even if you win by a single vote, like Bush 2 in his Rove-driven scorched-earth earlier years. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/209 "2012-09-26T20:48:45Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > You get to say you’ve got a mandate. The winner always gets to say he has a mandate. Nobody cares unless you can translate it into pressure on Congress. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/210 "2012-09-26T20:55:46Z")
The latest Ohio polls in the WaPo and NYT are a real punch in the gut for the Romney campaign. It’s all looking rather desperate now. Obama’s numbers on Intrade seem to climb every day and are now at 76%. Nate gives him 80%. If Romney loses Ohio he could win Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado and still lose. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/211 "2012-09-26T21:02:41Z")
[The term the Romney campaign actually uses:](http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/26/politics/romney-ohio/index.html). > [@](#): > > Putting a finer point on the matter, one longtime Ohio GOP strategist called Obama’s advantage on the auto bailout “a kick in the balls” for the Romney campaign. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/212 "2012-09-26T21:10:20Z")
I love Haley Barbour’s quote about how the Obama campaign has pigeonholed Romney\*: > [@](#): > > (Romney is) “a plutocrat married to a known equestrian.” Shades of the [Claude Pepper](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Pepper) urban legend, where George Smathers (allegedly) said that Claude has a sister who is a “thespian living in New York City.” \*I disagree, of course. Romney has pigeonholed Romney as a plutocrat. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/213 "2012-09-26T21:29:01Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > He may be peaking too early. A ten percent lead in the states that matter isn’t “peaking too early,” it’s indicative of a crushing victory. IF accurate - and again, I’d like to see more polling to support such a hgue swing - this lead is completely insurmountable without a once-every-fifty-years election-changer, like a truly horrible scandal or a terrible incident or something. “Peaking too early” in this case would mean he wins every battleground state by 5 points or more, instead of 7 points or more, and ONLY comes back to win South Carolina, instead of also coming back and winning Missouri. If Mitt Romney is really 9-10 points behind in Florida there is nothing he can do to win; he has to hope Obama pulls off the most spectaular campaign meltdown in the modern history of American politics. [QUOTE=Voyager] Why did he pick Ryan? Did he cave in? Did he think it would help? Did he really believe Ryan’s crap? Palin actually made more sense. [/QUOTE] People are down on Ryan but, honestly, he makes no difference at all. No matter who Romney had picked as his running mate I honestly believe the race would be exactly where it is right now, Romney would have made the same gaffes, and the polls would say the same thing. When, really, has a VP candidate ever made a difference? I can’t think of a single example. Bush 1 won with a clown as his running mate, and Bush 1 himself was an afterthought on the Reagan tickets, when he placed, as VP, a guy named “Walter Mondale” who was exactly as exciting as you would expect a guy named “Walter Mondale” to be. Most people forgot Al Gore existed when Clinton was President. Darth Cheney wasn’t an asset to Bush in the elections. Joe Biden seems like a nice guy but, really, he was on the ticket in 2008 because the law says someone has to be. Would Romney be better off with Marco Rubio? Nah, he’s still have said that 47% crap and he’d still be losing. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/214 "2012-09-26T21:53:32Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If Mitt Romney is really 9-10 points behind in Florida there is nothing he can do to win; he has to hope Obama pulls off the most spectaular campaign meltdown in the modern history of American politics. And Obama is definitely known for his meltdowns. Why, once he actually raised his voice a little. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/215 "2012-09-26T21:59:53Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Obama wasn’t a particularly strong candidate this year - the economy is not great, and the _ **deficit** _, while a bipartisan effort, has grown by 6 trillion on his watch. I think the moderates in America would be willing to consider a change. It’s just that Romney is imploding. Please do not speak of the _debt_ while using the word _deficit_. :mad: If the deficit this year really _does_ top $6T, please advise, and I will apologize for my outburst. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/216 "2012-09-26T22:06:01Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If Mitt Romney is really 9-10 points behind in Florida there is nothing he can do to win; he has to hope Obama pulls off the most spectaular campaign meltdown in the modern history of American politics. Maybe he can buy off a moderator at one of the debates, and sneak in a question about a can of strawberries. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/217 "2012-09-26T22:24:35Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > But during the primaries the right wing candidates - individually and as a group - consistently outpolled Romney. Some of this might be because he is just a bad candidate. Also, Romney really never beat anyone but Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich remember lost all his money and campaign staff, and was a kook, so that he was even a challenge didn’t speak well for Romney. Santorum came from nowhere only after Romney had it wrapped up. We can only wonder how the other candidates would have done if they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot. > So I don’t think you can say Romney won due to his relative level of being a moderate. And of course he didn’t run as a moderate. Romney was losing to “idealized perfect Republican.” Just as Obama was once losing in the polls to “not Obama.” But neither of those matter at all in our reality. You don’t run against an imaginary opponent with all virtues and no flaws, with infinite money, no gaffes, and the ability to be in ten places at once. You run against real individuals. Romney beat every real individual. Obama is beating his real opponent. Neither should be a surprise. > [@](#): > > Primary yes. But not for the national campaign. Romney didn’t shake the Etch-a-Sketch, he scribbled more stuff onto it. Why did he pick Ryan? Did he cave in? Did he think it would help? Did he really believe Ryan’s crap? Palin actually made more sense. Vice-Presidents can hurt but they don’t help. For once the conventional wisdom is correct. > [@](#): > > A moderate Republican would have a chance in a general election - a good one. But the demographics are increasingly hurting the traditional Republican base. An imaginary moderate Republican, maybe. There is no real Republican who fits this description. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/218 "2012-09-26T22:41:26Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > And Obama is definitely known for his meltdowns. Why, once he actually raised his voice a little. I once saw him\* knit his brow.\* ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/219 "2012-09-27T01:33:18Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > [Dick Morris shows the effect of his girlfriend’s hallucinogenic toenail polish.](https://twitter.com/DickMorrisTweet/status/250679208345481216) Love love love it! ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/220 "2012-09-27T01:37:58Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I once saw him\* knit his brow.\* I have a brow Obama knitted. I plan to sell it on eBay. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/221 "2012-09-27T01:38:55Z")
Honestly, I think [Joe Scarborough said it all](http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-scarborough-mitt-romney-crowd-sweet-jesus-2012-9). “Sweet jesus” indeed. Romney’s not, you know, doing well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=12)