# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/282 "2012-09-28T16:30:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ok. By moderately skilled, I meant he was in the top 1/3rd or so of politicians that run for office on the state level. In the absolute sense, of course he’s a good politician- maybe even a great politician. But at the Presidential level, in my opinion, he’s significantly below average. The fact that he won the MA governorship in 2002 as a Republican doesn’t even necessarily make him moderately skilled. For one, it just meant he had more money than his opponent if I recall correctly. It may also be that he was just at the right place at the right time. And the fact that he lost to Ted Kennedy by 17 points in '94 really doesn’t say much about him at all, other than he was silly enough to challenge a Kennedy in MA. He’s a fabulously rich businessman who has a family history of politics. He’s been elected to exactly one thing in his life. He came out on top of this year’s primary, by default, be beating a bunch of chumps. He’s held one job in public service. Sarah Palin had more political experience. “Moderately skilled politician” is being charitable when describing Mitt. He may be a great schmoozer, executive, boss, administrator, fund-raiser, manager, but a politician? It should be obvious to all now that he is NOT even a moderately skilled one. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/283 "2012-09-28T16:40:37Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > “Moderately skilled politician” is being charitable when describing Mitt. He may be a great schmoozer, executive, boss, administrator, fund-raiser, manager, but a politician? It should be obvious to all now that he is NOT even a moderately skilled one. At the Presidential level, certainly not (though I think those sub-skills you list are all parts of winning elections). But at the JV High School Football level, I was a moderately skilled kicker. Winning an election for governor, and a presidential primary (even against a weak field) count for at least something. Not nearly enough so far, obviously. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/284 "2012-09-28T16:42:11Z")
So let’s go through the list of my adult memory, assume someone who couldn’t win the primary is not better - McCain better? Kerry? Bush either one? Gore? Ford? Clinton sure. Obama sure. Reagan sure. Carter? Dukakis? Dole? Mondale? I’ll refrain from going so far as Nixon and McGovern. Honestly it is a tough gig. Of Presidential contenders he’s in with the pack. Three stand out as skillful politicians. Most are on his level. And the current GOP try out process makes the general gig even harder. Winning the base _and_ being able to appeal to enough moderates and swings (not necessarily the same people always) in the general without losing your base or coming off too Etch-a-Sketchy requires a skillset well above average, well above moderate. There may not be a Republican politician in the country of that skill level. Their best hope is mainly that the Dems send up duds worse than theirs in the future, and they have sent up a few. Obama though? He’s no dud. ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/285 "2012-09-28T16:42:37Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > An interesting story from [Politico](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81772.html?hp=t1)this morning about why Mittens is losing. It’s not biased polls, or his religion, or his running mate, or the lamestream media, or the uptick in the economy…it’s the fact that Romney really, really sucks at running for president. I’m gonna disagree rather strongly with that article. The problem is not that Mitt is a bad politician (although he is), it’s that he’s been campaigning on a platform of vague platitudes and hasn’t coughed up any specifics. If the Mitt of that article existed, those specifics would be his strong point. But the actual specifics are devastating for Mitt, because they’re based on bad ideologies. For example, when you have a huge deficit and incredibly large national debt, a platform of making everything better by lowering taxes preferentially on the wealthy is pretty much a non-starter. When you’re running a company and the balance sheet starts looking bad, you cut costs \* and \* raise revenues. Mitt knows this, but can’t say it, and that’s one of the reasons he’s losing. There’s also the question of his complete abandonment of every moderate stance he held as governor of Mass in order to get nominated. That’s not the actions of a great leader, they’re the actions of a weasel. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/286 "2012-09-28T16:45:08Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > He’s held one job in public service. Two. It would be difficult to characterize chairing an Olympic organizing committee as something other than a public service job. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/287 "2012-09-28T16:45:22Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So let’s go through the list of my adult memory, assume someone who couldn’t win the primary is not better - McCain better? Kerry? Bush either one? Gore? Ford? Clinton sure. Obama sure. Reagan sure. Carter? Dukakis? Dole? Mondale? I’ll refrain from going so far as Nixon and McGovern. > > Honestly it is a tough gig. Of Presidential contenders he’s in with the pack. Three stand out as skillful politicians. Most are on his level. And the current GOP try out process makes the general gig even harder. Winning the base _and_ being able to appeal to enough moderates and swings (not necessarily the same people always) in the general without losing your base or coming off too Etch-a-Sketchy requires a skillset well above average, well above moderate. There may not be a Republican politician in the country of that skill level. Their best hope is mainly that the Dems send up duds worse than theirs in the future, and they have sent up a few. Obama though? He’s no dud. Come and participate in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=667037)(which was inspired by this discussion). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/288 "2012-09-28T16:46:30Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’ll point out here that even after his unsuccessful Senate run he strongly encouraged to run for governor in Massachusetts because people felt it would set him up for a future run at the White House and the current Republican governor was pressured not to run for re-election. Not quite all that. Jane Swift was a disaster of an acting governor, and there was a faction in the state GOP led by Christy Mihos to try to find someone to beat her in the 2002 primary. Mihos privately funded a poll that included Romney’s name, as well as a few token suspects, along with Swift’s, that showed him to have far more support than she did, and the prospect of losing embarrassingly induced Swift to drop out. There’s no basis for the belief that the schmuck-filled-room types wanted Romney to use the state as a stepping stone do DC; it was all about getting rid of Swift. And, frankly, just about anyone with a pulse could have done that. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/289 "2012-09-28T16:46:52Z")
538 today forecasts about a 16% for Romney. I’ll go out on a limb and state that if nothing dramatically to Romney’s advantage comes out of the first debate, he’s toast. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/290 "2012-09-28T16:48:57Z")
Still not buying. I remember distinctly similar predictions being made before the 2004 election (including by me, I think). That’s not to say I think Romney will win, just that it’s not over. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/291 "2012-09-28T16:53:36Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Two. It would be difficult to characterize chairing an Olympic organizing committee as something other than a public service job. I’d characterize it as being named the CEO of a non-profit organization. To me a public servant is someone who is a government electee, appointee or employee. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/292 "2012-09-28T17:07:55Z")
Olympic Committees _are_ quasi-government bodies, at least in the US. The USOC and its organizing committees are chartered under Title 36 of the US Code. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/293 "2012-09-28T17:10:30Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Still not buying. I remember distinctly similar predictions being made before the 2004 election (including by me, I think). That’s not to say I think Romney will win, just that it’s not over. Around this time during the 2004 elections, Bush was polling ahead of Kerry by around 5-8 points. [Source.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html) I am not saying your point is completely invalid, just that within the month or so prior to the 2004 election, people who thought Kerry would win were basically gambling that the polls were all wrong. (And yes, I was one of them.) ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/294 "2012-09-28T17:13:13Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Still not buying. I remember distinctly similar predictions being made before the 2004 election (including by me, I think). That’s not to say I think Romney will win, just that it’s not over. At this point in 2004, Bush was beating Kerry by 6 points. Larger than Obama is leading Romney today. So in hindsight calling it for Kerry didn’t make much sense. I know that I personally was tricked into the mindset that so many right wingers have today with respect to Obama. I didn`t think Kerry was great but I just could not comprehend that the polls wouldn’t turn against that awful president and we’d vote him out. Of course, I was 20 in 2004 so I like to imagine part of my problem was age related. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/295 "2012-09-28T17:22:08Z")
Straight Dope’s favorite prognosticator, Nate Silver, has already discussed the ability to overcome polling in late September. He found that [it is not likely](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/). In 2004 in fact Bush had a larger lead than he won with. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/296 "2012-09-28T17:23:36Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I’m not sure how much lower my expectations could be: > > "A Romney spokesman today said that Romney will enter the debate and immediately offer President Obama $100,000 to “just go away”. He then plans on answering every question with “on the advice of my lawyer, I decline to answer”. Nah, I think he will just say that he will answer all the hard questions after the election. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/297 "2012-09-28T17:26:09Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > An interesting story from [Politico](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81772.html?hp=t1)this morning about why Mittens is losing. It’s not biased polls, or his religion, or his running mate, or the lamestream media, or the uptick in the economy…it’s the fact that Romney really, really sucks at running for president. Remember during the primaries we all talked about how Romney just couldn’t close the deal, even after opponent after opponent self destructed and dropped out? We’re seeing the same thing here against an opponent who is far more skilled than any of his nomination challengers. ---
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/298 "2012-09-28T18:01:25Z")
Its hard to imagine in this age of political news that anything can come from a debate that would change anyones mind at this point. I know Regan had the huge surge past Carter in 1980, but back then the news cycle wasn’t 4hrs. The general public just hadn’t had a chance to see/hear Regan yet. when they did, they decided to vote for him. Right now you know what you need to know about these canidates. Unless Obama calls Mitt a “cracker” or Mitt calls Obama a “nigger” I dont expect the numbers to move very much. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/299 "2012-09-28T18:07:00Z")
I do almost expect Romney to be a bit condescending to Obama at some point during the debate. I don’t know why I feel that way, I just do. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/300 "2012-09-28T18:08:22Z")
> [@Dob](#): > > I know Regan had the huge surge past Carter in 1980 Not as a result of the debates he didn’t. [This is a myth.](http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/24/the_myth_of_jimmy_carter_s_eight_point_lead_over_reagan.html) ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/301 "2012-09-28T18:15:55Z")
> [@Dob](#): > > Unless Obama calls Mitt a “cracker” or Mitt calls Obama a “nigger” I dont expect the numbers to move very much. I am now imagining Obama playing Richard Pryor in that really old SNL sketch with Chevy Chase (“let’s do some word association. Negro.” “Whitey.” “Tarbaby.” “Cracker!”) and I cannot stop giggling. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=16)