# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/302 "2012-09-28T18:17:55Z")
Huh, did not know that Marley! Ignorance fought for the day, go have some coffee. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/303 "2012-09-28T18:18:58Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > I do almost expect Romney to be a bit condescending to Obama at some point during the debate. I don’t know why I feel that way, I just do. 'Cause he’s a bit condescending to _everybody_, maybe? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/304 "2012-09-28T18:23:35Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > Around this time during the 2004 elections, Bush was polling ahead of Kerry by around 5-8 points. [Source.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html) > > I am not saying your point is completely invalid, just that within the month or so prior to the 2004 election, people who thought Kerry would win were basically gambling that the polls were all wrong. (And yes, I was one of them.) > [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > At this point in 2004, Bush was beating Kerry by 6 points. Larger than Obama is leading Romney today. So in hindsight calling it for Kerry didn’t make much sense. > > I know that I personally was tricked into the mindset that so many right wingers have today with respect to Obama. I didn`t think Kerry was great but I just could not comprehend that the polls wouldn’t turn against that awful president and we’d vote him out. > > Of course, I was 20 in 2004 so I like to imagine part of my problem was age related. Hmmm. Fair enough. I didn’t remember Bush being ahead in the polls; I thought they were actually polling about level. Mea culpa. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/305 "2012-09-28T19:13:28Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > Of course, I was 20 in 2004 so I like to imagine part of my problem was age related. I was in the same boat, only I was 50 in 2004. What was MY excuse, dammit? 😉 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/306 "2012-09-28T19:31:25Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > At this point in 2004, Bush was beating Kerry by 6 points. Larger than Obama is leading Romney today. So in hindsight calling it for Kerry didn’t make much sense. > > I know that I personally was tricked into the mindset that so many right wingers have today with respect to Obama. I didn`t think Kerry was great but I just could not comprehend that the polls wouldn’t turn against that awful president and we’d vote him out. As past elections go, the Kerry example probably offers the most hope for Romney, despite the fact that he lost. Kerry made up about a five point deficit after the first debate, after a dissapointing set of conventions left him trailing by something like six points through September. And in defence of your 20-year old self, for a while in October it wasn’t so crazy to think the momentum would continue and he’d get the last point or two he needed to put him over the top. A similar jump by Romney would put him back in the lead. And while its kind of hard to see Romney charming America during the debates, Kerry wasn’t exactly a bundle of charisma either. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/307 "2012-09-28T19:33:23Z")
Also President Obama isn’t visibly stupid, the way Shrubya [del]was[/del] is. ---
**Author:** ![xanthous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/53a042/32.png) [@xanthous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xanthous)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/308 "2012-09-28T19:37:39Z")
Link to debate-expectations memo released by a Romney advisor (sorry, I’m on my phone and can’t make the link pretty): [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/27/first-on-cnn-romney-memo-seeks-to-lower-debate-expectations](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/27/first-on-cnn-romney-memo-seeks-to-lower-debate-expectations) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/309 "2012-09-29T03:28:54Z")
> [@xanthous](#): > > Link to debate-expectations memo released by a Romney advisor (sorry, I’m on my phone and can’t make the link pretty): > > [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/27/first-on-cnn-romney-memo-seeks-to-lower-debate-expectations](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/27/first-on-cnn-romney-memo-seeks-to-lower-debate-expectations) See my post #266. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/310 "2012-09-29T05:17:39Z")
Romney can pack it in, he is [losing the halloween mask metric](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-v-romney-scary-indicator-204219877.html)also: > [@](#): > > Spirit Halloween, the Halloween pop-up stores owned by novelty-gift chain Spencers, says it has correctly called each of the four presidential elections since the mid-1990s by which candidate’s Halloween mask sold better. > > Here are their stats to back it up: > [ul] > [li]2008: Barack Obama outsold John McCain with 60 percent of presidential mask sales.[/li][li]2004: George W. Bush outsold John Kerry with 65 percent of sales.[/li][li]2000: George W. Bush outsold Al Gore with 57 percent of sales. (How come Gore didn’t contest THAT number?!)[/li][li]1996: Bill Clinton outsold Bob Dole with 71 percent of sales.[/li][/ul]So, even though Halloween is a month away, we thought we’d do an early check to see who’s winning so far this year - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? > > According to Spirit, Obama is ahead with 64 percent of sales, compared to 36 percent for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Sr\_Siete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6de8d8/32.png) [@Sr\_Siete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sr_Siete)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/311 "2012-09-29T07:28:18Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Romney can pack it in, he is [losing the halloween mask metric](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-v-romney-scary-indicator-204219877.html)also: Ah, but in the TV show _True Blood_ there’s a subplot about a bunch of vampire-hunting rednecks using Obama masks. So you should take _True Blood_ fans out of the equation. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/312 "2012-09-29T08:01:22Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > As past elections go, the Kerry example probably offers the most hope for Romney, despite the fact that he lost. Kerry made up about a five point deficit after the first debate, after a dissapointing set of conventions left him trailing by something like six points through September. ``` Comparing the two elections, I think Kerry was a better candidate than Romney. He had similar weaknesses to Romney, for example a reputation as a flip-flopper, but I think the latter just makes more unforced errors. I think Obama is clearly a better candidate than Bush, a much better speaker in every format. However he has to deal with a sluggish economy which wasn't a problem in 2004. Rove set the gold standard for a ground campaign in 2004, particularly the famous GOTV operation in Ohio but the Obama campaign has taken it to a whole other level particuarly in the use of super-detailed data analysis. They have clearly borrowed from the 2004 Rove playbook in terms of attacking and defining their opponent early and I think they have been even more ruthlessly effective in that regard. ``` So aside from the economy I think Obama is in better shape in every other respect. Some time back I thought Romney had a money advantage unlike Kerry in 2004 but apparently it was a bit of an illusion . I don’t fully understand the details but I believe that Obama has massively outraised Romney in small donations which gave him significantly more flexibility in launching a big ad campaign early. Presumably Romney will now unleash his big media onslaught but it may be too late and he will probably be matched dollar for dollar by Obama. I would bet that a lot of business money is going to Obama now simply because they believe he will win. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/313 "2012-09-29T08:13:09Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Remember during the primaries we all talked about how Romney just couldn’t close the deal, even after opponent after opponent self destructed and dropped out? > We’re seeing the same thing here against an opponent who is far more skilled than any of his nomination challengers. I think this has been Romney’s problem. He’s never had to actively beat an opponent. He’s just had to hang in there until his opponent self-destructed. The problem for him is that not every opponent self-destructs. McCain didn’t in 2008 and it doesn’t look like Obama will in 2012. But Romney is still pacing himself like he’s in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Untoward\_Parable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/51bf81/32.png) [@Untoward\_Parable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Untoward_Parable)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/314 "2012-09-29T09:01:59Z")
No, but it’s not too early to celebrate! ---
**Author:** ![xanthous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/53a042/32.png) [@xanthous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xanthous)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/315 "2012-09-29T12:34:05Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > See my post #266. Whoops-sorry. And I’ve been following this thread! ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/316 "2012-09-29T13:26:28Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Some time back I thought Romney had a money advantage unlike Kerry in 2004 but apparently it was a bit of an illusion . I don’t fully understand the details but I believe that Obama has massively outraised Romney in small donations which gave him significantly more flexibility in launching a big ad campaign early. I read an explanation in an article that either 538 or electoral-vote linked to, but can’t find it now. Apparently Romney has been raising money jointly with the Republican Party from the fat-cat donors, while Obama relies mainly on small donations directly to him over the internet. The significance of this is that by law, presidential candidates are entitled to the lowest possible ad rate on t.v. - provided they pay for it with their own campaign money. If they pay for it with money from other sources, such as pooled money with the party, the networks are entitled to charge the market rate, not the special low-low-low rate for presidential campaigns - even though the substance of the ad is the presidential candidate. So, even though Romney and the Republicans have raised a lot of money from the fat-cats, when they go to spend it they’re finding air time is a lot more expensive than it is for Obama - so Obama, due to his reliance on 21st century social media, is able to buy more air time more cheaply. Obama’s funding strategy has also paid another dividend - it doesn’t eat into his valuable campaigning time. Mitt had to take a week off from campaigning earlier this month, because he had to do another round of fat-cat fundraising events to keep his campaign going - while Obama, relying on the magic of the interwebs and PayPal, was able to keep campaigning as the little donations kept coming in without him having to take any time. Interesting case study of how the very different approach of the two candidates to fund-raising has had some significant implications for their ability to campaign in ways unconnected to the actual dollar amounts that they’ve raised. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/317 "2012-09-29T14:58:41Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Obama’s funding strategy has also paid another dividend - it doesn’t eat into his valuable campaigning time. Mitt had to take a week off from campaigning earlier this month, because he had to do another round of fat-cat fundraising events to keep his campaign going - while Obama, relying on the magic of the interwebs and PayPal, was able to keep campaigning as the little donations kept coming in without him having to take any time. Interesting point and of course it was at a fundraiser where Romney made the 47% comment which will possibly cost him more votes than his entire ad campaign wins. Could Romney have pumped his own money into his campaign either outright or by making a loan? 50 million would have come in very handy a few months back and he can certainly afford it. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/318 "2012-09-29T16:48:18Z")
He could have, but instead his campaign borrowed 20 million in the middle of summer. It’s very much like the line from The Producers - the first rule is to use other people’s money, not your own … ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/319 "2012-09-29T17:07:38Z")
You should not use your own money in a campaign. If you don’t have enough support to raise enough money, you don’t have enough support to win the election. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/320 "2012-09-29T17:18:24Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I read an explanation in an article that either 538 or electoral-vote linked to, but can’t find it now. > > Apparently Romney has been raising money jointly with the Republican Party from the fat-cat donors, while Obama relies mainly on small donations directly to him over the internet. That appears to be outdated. [‘Super PACs’ Finally a Draw for Democrats](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/us/politics/super-pacs-finally-a-draw-for-democrats.html) The Democratic Super PACs still trail the Republican ones in total donations, but it’s not as one-sided as it once was. The print edition had a list of fourteen donors who had given a minimum of $1 million. And [more is coming](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/soros-gives-1-million-to-democratic-super-pac/). > [@](#): > > The billionaire George Soros is committing $1 million to Priorities USA Action, the “super PAC” supporting President Obama… > > Mr. Soros, a retired hedge fund manager, will also give an additional $500,000 to two super PACs backing Congressional Democrats. Other donors at the lunch were expected to commit at least $10 million more to Democratic super PACs, suggesting that many — like Mr. Soros — had overcome their aversion to financing super PACs that focused only on advertising. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2012, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/321 "2012-09-29T17:19:04Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I read an explanation in an article that either 538 or electoral-vote linked to, but can’t find it now. > > Apparently Romney has been raising money jointly with the Republican Party from the fat-cat donors, while Obama relies mainly on small donations directly to him over the internet. > > The significance of this is that by law, presidential candidates are entitled to the lowest possible ad rate on t.v. - provided they pay for it with their own campaign money. If they pay for it with money from other sources, such as pooled money with the party, the networks are entitled to charge the market rate, not the special low-low-low rate for presidential campaigns - even though the substance of the ad is the presidential candidate. > > So, even though Romney and the Republicans have raised a lot of money from the fat-cats, when they go to spend it they’re finding air time is a lot more expensive than it is for Obama - so Obama, due to his reliance on 21st century social media, is able to buy more air time more cheaply. > > Obama’s funding strategy has also paid another dividend - it doesn’t eat into his valuable campaigning time. Mitt had to take a week off from campaigning earlier this month, because he had to do another round of fat-cat fundraising events to keep his campaign going - while Obama, relying on the magic of the interwebs and PayPal, was able to keep campaigning as the little donations kept coming in without him having to take any time. > > Interesting case study of how the very different approach of the two candidates to fund-raising has had some significant implications for their ability to campaign in ways unconnected to the actual dollar amounts that they’ve raised. I read similar things and found it similarly fascinating. But there’s one other major component. A lot of the anti-Obama ads are coming from SUPERPACS, who have no commitment to where their money is spent. If they start sensing that Romney is in trouble, they’re likely to rechannel that money to smaller local races down ticket where it can be better used. So perhaps good for the GOP’s long-term ground game, but bad for Mitt, who can do nothing about it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=17)