# Is it too early to say Romney has lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066 "2012-09-18T13:26:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/362 "2012-10-01T12:04:28Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Makes you cry. Unt I deeeeed. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/363 "2012-10-01T13:06:45Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Unt I deeeeed. I see what you people did there! I ft like I was in some kind of time warp! ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/364 "2012-10-01T13:22:19Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Wait - why is he looking for a (literal) handout? Isn’t he one of the great self-made men of this country? He’s supposed to be self-reliant. If he can’t manage his boat properly, let him drift. Yea. Let the market handle it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/365 "2012-10-01T13:55:52Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Makes you cry. > [@Gyrate](#): > > Unt I deeeeed. Well played. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/366 "2012-10-01T14:03:57Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Romney now behind Obama by nine points in Ohio: [Ohio Presidential Polls: Obama Leads Romney By 9 Points, Columbus Dispatch Poll Finds | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/30/ohio-presidential-polls_n_1927109.html) That’s just one poll, but the [RCP poll average for Ohio](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) has Obama up by 5.6%, which is pretty damned good for a state that Romney all but can’t win without. (If Romney loses Ohio, he’d have to sweep VA, NC, FL, IA, CO, and NV to win.) ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/367 "2012-10-01T14:13:59Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Unt I deeeeed. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/368 "2012-10-01T15:50:05Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Makes you cry. Call me heartless, but _somehow_ I maintained emotional control. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/369 "2012-10-01T16:08:49Z")
That’s nothing. One time I was in the back of my limousine eating some finger sandwiches my cook made for me. I was horrified to see she forgot to add any condiments! Luckily, Mitt’s limousine pulled up next to me and he gave me some Grey Poupon. I was saved! I would have starved it wasn’t for Mitt’s generosity. He fed me just like he’ll feed everyone in this country. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/370 "2012-10-01T16:09:17Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > What a guy. > [@jayjay](#): > > Makes you cry. > [@Gyrate](#): > > Unt I deeeeed. o/` When Mitty tried to debate oh, so witty, you knew he was a no-good kid. But when he threatened MedicAid with a budget-cutting blade, what a guy! Makes you cry! Und I deeed! Miiiiittyyyyy! o/` ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/371 "2012-10-01T16:33:21Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > That’s nothing. One time I was in the back of my limousine eating some finger sandwiches my cook made for me. I was horrified to see she forgot to add any condiments! Luckily, Mitt’s limousine pulled up next to me and he gave me some Grey Poupon. I was saved! I would have starved it wasn’t for Mitt’s generosity. He fed me just like he’ll feed everyone in this country. Nah, he’s going to free you from your culture of dependency, you handout-seeking moocher. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/372 "2012-10-01T17:25:59Z")
More bad news for Mitt Romney, he’s now polling behind Obama on the planet [Kolob](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolob). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/373 "2012-10-01T21:57:35Z")
Yes, I hear Romney’s being Koloberred in the polls there! ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/374 "2012-10-01T23:46:33Z")
New [Obama campaign ad](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/new-obama-ad-goes-after-romney-on-china?ref=fpb) hits Romney hard on China. Good to see they’re not letting up just because they’re polling ahead. Always run up the score if you can. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/375 "2012-10-02T01:33:43Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > More bad news for Mitt Romney, he’s now polling behind Obama on the planet [Kolob](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolob). He can always go back to his old job as an underwear model. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/376 "2012-10-02T01:40:55Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > New [Obama campaign ad](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/new-obama-ad-goes-after-romney-on-china?ref=fpb) hits Romney hard on China. Good to see they’re not letting up just because they’re polling ahead. Always run up the score if you can. That’s gotta hurt. Best part is that easily verifiable and doesn’t rely on distorted soundbites… ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/377 "2012-10-02T02:08:05Z")
And Romney can’t really bitch about it, since he’s the one who brought up [“I’m the one who will be tough on China”](http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-talks-tough-on-china-but-few-of-his-big-donors-believe-him) in ads a couple of weeks ago. You brought it up Romney. Now explain how you’ve changed from what you said and did in the past. Should be easy for you. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/378 "2012-10-02T02:10:34Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > That’s just one poll, but the [RCP poll average for Ohio](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) has Obama up by 5.6%, which is pretty damned good for a state that Romney all but can’t win without. (If Romney loses Ohio, he’d have to sweep VA, NC, FL, IA, CO, and NV to win.) The state that really, really matters is Florida. In a close race with voter suppression shenanigans, Romney could lose Ohio but win. But he cannot lose Florida and win; there just isn’t any realistic scneario in this universe in which that happens. So Obama’s 3-4 point lead there is, in truth, far more dangerous to Romney than the deficit in Ohio. He’s got to win Florida; there’s no bones about it. He needs to target that state. And it’s not out of reach; the polls are closer and the state government is making efforts to keep Democratic voters from voting. He can win it, but he’d better get his ass down there and start campaigning. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/379 "2012-10-02T02:39:04Z")
YEs, if he loses florida, he’d have to run the board on every single other state in play. Not likely. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/380 "2012-10-02T02:49:25Z")
[Those notorious lefties at FOX](http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/10/01/big-money-donors-toward-house-senate-races/) are saying that the big moneyed boys are starting to pull out of the Romney effort: > [@](#): > > The Romney campaign is experiencing what some officials believe could be the beginning of a mass exodus of big money donors diverting their cash away from the Republican presidential hopeful and toward Republican candidates for the House and Senate races more likely to win in November, the FOX Business Network has learned. If that isn’t enough, Republicans have given up voter registration in several swing states, having put all their eggs in an extremely unreliable basket. ---
**Author:** ![SCSimmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e495f1/32.png) [@SCSimmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SCSimmons)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2012, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066/381 "2012-10-02T02:58:28Z")
So, back to the question in the OP … Nate Silver posted an interesting comparison, using an NFL statistics site, recently. It seems that Romney’s current chance of winning is roughly comparable to that of an NFL team down by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. And you wouldn’t point to that team and say they’re sunk–they’re in trouble, sure, but there’s plenty of time left to mount a comeback. On the flip side, that means there’s a better chance of Mitt winning the election than of the Cowboys coming back and beating the Bears tonight. And that makes me very sad. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-it-too-early-to-say-romney-has-lost/635066.md?page=20)